When the currency swap expectation begins to be whispered
2019/12/10
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Generally like Korea
If an economic collapse occurs in a "country that borrows huge amounts of money in foreign currencies"
The most obvious is that the rollover of foreign currency debt has failed,
It will be a pattern of bankruptcy due to lack of cash.
Under these circumstances, a person who has the status of "Deputy Prime Minister of Economic Affairs"
"We will announce financial market stability measures soon," he said.
The fact that a person in a key position makes an inadvertent remark,
That it can be a message to international market players.
Do they really understand?
Will the Deputy Prime Minister himself say that ...
In this article, "Issuance of" stock prices "and" capital escape "are not necessarily equal"
, But not necessarily a link.
You can read the previous article and this article in succession,
It is intended to make sense to read this article alone.
Well, yesterday
『ChosunReportsSwapWithUS-JapanWhileKRWisSold1Then, it was published in Korean media,
"You should sign a currency swap with the United States Japan"
(Really ridiculous)
However, the following article was introduced by Reuters.
「SouthKoreaAnouncesMeasuresAddresDollarShortage
(From Reuters on March 17 , 2020 at 15:02 )
This is because the Korean government on the 18th ,
He plans to announce measures to alleviate the dollar shortage in South Korea,
It is information that "two government officials familiar with the situation" have revealed.
Then, Korean media
A follow-up report has appeared in " JoongAng Ilbo " (Japanese version).
洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）
Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of Planning and Finance,
"We will announce financial market stability measures such as futures exchange limits soon."
<< … Read more >>
――― From 2020.03.1719: 12 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)Japanese versionSurprisingly,
“Deputy Prime Minister of Economic Affairs,”
洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기） himself,
"We will soon announce financial market stabilization measures, such as futures exchange limits."
It was said.
The Deputy Prime Minister himself
Says that he admits that Korea's US dollar funding is tight.
It's a great sense to do it.
This remark may include a sharp drop in the Korean won in the foreign exchange market.
I was wondering if the aim was to check it.
But only if the financial markets are the other party,
You have to be careful about your remarks,
If there is such a "plan", I think it would be good to announce it quickly.
In connection with this statement by 洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）,
The Korean government plans to issue a "stabilization plan for foreign currency money markets" this week
But this
It includes a proposal to lower the dollar financing costs of Korean financial institutions.
How to "reduce the dollar financing costs of Korean financial institutions"
I don't know if you're going to
"Foreign currency reserves in excess of $ 400 billion"
Supply funds to domestic financial institutions?
The long-awaited theory of currency swaps with Japan and the United States,
Also in the Korean Economic Newspaper editorial!
On the other hand, the Korean Economic Newspaper
It seems that the long-awaited theory of currency swap with Japan and the United States was published.
[ Editorial ]
「0VisibilityCanForeignExchangeHoldingsBeRelieved?
'시계 제로' 세계 경제… 외환 보유액 마음 놓을 수 있나
(* Original Korean)
The economic impact of the Wuhan Pneumonia virus (Corona 19) has spread to finance and industry.
Countries embark on a "war on monetary easing" at ultra-low interest rates
But stock prices have plummeted and international oil prices have plummeted. << … Read more >>
――― dated 2020.03.1718: 17
In this editorial, the Korean Economic Newspaper
"I am not worried about Korea's foreign currency reserves, but from a medium- to long-term perspective,
It is difficult to make the most of it.
During the financial crisis of 2008 , as a result of releasing dollars for currency protection,
About $ 60 billion was leaked in six months.
At that time, foreign exchange reserves fell by more than 20 %
Don't forget the experience that suddenly came up to "Forex Crisis" . "
And then
" If foreign currencies drop sharply, it could lead to a decline in sovereign ratings.
If you re-enter a currency swap with the United States and Japan,
It will be as effective as increasing foreign currency reserves.
The Korean government wants to show its power here . "
And put an order
(The quotes are basically translated by referring to a translation engine, etc.)
The level of foreign currency reserve is okay
So why do we need to sign a currency swap agreement with Japan and the United States ?
The painful logic development around here, the brute force,
I thought it was Korean media.
Is it really no plan?
As mentioned above, according to the WSJ last week,
"Conclusion of foreign-exchange swaps with China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Australia"
Editorial
(『WSJ-FRB-ForeignCentralBankForeignExchangeSwap1
WSJ "FRB는 외국 중앙 은행과 통화 스왑 연장을"
ＷＳＪ「ＦＲＢは外国中央銀行と為替スワップ拡張を」」Etc.)
Since then,
the Korean Economic Newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)
Korea's major media, such as, have all been arguing for a long-awaited swap.
Let's return to the article of 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo) at the beginning.
洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）,Is curious about what plans will come out
But anyway, 洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）,
Did you say, "We will announce financial stabilization measures soon?"
Thinking naturally, 洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기） ,
Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy,
The moment I said, "I announce financial stabilization measures,"
"South Korea is struggling to raise US dollars," said a South Korean government official.
You may have to admit,
In that case, some foreign financial institutions have short-term funds.
There may be cases where roles are rejected (updates).
洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）, said in this statement:
"Our Korean government is ready too."
And wanted to appeal to international capital markets.
However, if you want to announce anyway, unless you announce at a stretch including the specific measures,
The risk of adverse effects is high.
Or a pretty mockery
However,洪楠基（Hong Nam-gi,홍남기）,
Currently, below the surface with the United States and Japan
Currency swaps and foreign-exchange swaps
I'm requesting a restart, and I will announce measures in the near future, "starting off"
I guess you have said.
In other words, the "no plan" hypothesis.
Japan Korea Currency Swap
Is the hurdle to resume higher than Everest ?
In any case,
Whether the United States will enter into a foreign-exchange swap with South Korea
If it is a decision of the US Fed and it is to help Korea at the expense of the United States,
It is unrelated to us Japanese.
However, If Japan has a foreign-exchange swap with Korea.
If you are going to enter into a dollar currency swap,
At least on the various issues between Japan and Korea created by the Korean side,
Everything must be negotiated cleanly with the responsibility and effort of the Korean side.
Various torts that Korea has set against Japan,
There are many other factors that are deteriorating Japan-Korea relations,
Under the 文在寅（Moon Jae-in,문재인）administration
Even if you enumerate just those that occurred, there are the following:
① Rising Sun flag uproar
(Around September 2018 )
② “ Applicant workers from the Korean Peninsula ”
Ruling
( October 30 , 2018 , November 29 , 2018 )
③ Radar irradiation incident
( December 20 , 2018 )
South Korean Parliament President insults His Majesty the Emperor
(Around February last year)
⑤Appropriate export control measures for South Korea by Japan
(Announced on July 1, last year)
慰安婦 (Comfortwoman = Sex Slaves = Prostitute )
Foundation dissolution
(Around July last year)
⑦ Japan-Korea Claims Agreement
(Japan-Republic of Korea Basic Relations Treaty) Ignored
(July 19 , last year)
⑧ Notification of Japan-Korea GSOMIA destruction
(August 22 , last year)
⑨ Litigation against Japan WTO
(September 11 , last year)
STOP Suspension of visa exemption for Japanese
(After March 9, this year)
Also,
Under the 朴槿恵(ParkGeun-hye, 박근혜) administration,
Under the 李明博(Lee Myung-bak,이명박) administration,
Even if the illegal activities occurred inVarious things remain piled up unresolved.
Without clearing them up,
At the expense of us Japanese people
Currency- foreign-exchange swap to save Korea
Why how about giving it?
※ ※ ※ ※ ※ ※ ※
However,
Korea is a country that can only be scattered and cannot be cleared up.
"Solve them completely in Korea's full responsibility."
Even if you request
It might be like an amateur climbing Everest in the winter.
Well, it's not something we all knew.
* That's it for the text .