The US securities market plunges to help with interest rate reduction ...
Korean currency swap urgent
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In recent days, as the Korean won has been on a downtrend,
Is it because the number of people with a sense of crisis has increased in Korea?
Earlier
『S-KoreaDeputyPrimeMinisteRepliedCasuallyAwaiSwap 韓国経済新聞も日本韓国スワップ待望論の一方、副首相が軽率な発言』It seems to be a "follow-up", and the currency swap theory has come out again.
But the main is
" US- Korean exchange (foreign-exchange) swap" and " Japan- Korea currency swap"
On the other hand, one of the sudden claims recently
It is a concept of "currency swap with G20".
It's clear that something like this won't work properly
But the important point is
"Why did Korea suddenly call it a G20 swap?"
Korean scholars
"Outside $ 800 billion" "Japan-Korea / US-Korea Swap"
『ChosunReportsSwapWithUS-JapanWhileKRWisSold1
And
『RulingConcludesCurrencySwapBeforeSpreadToCurrencAs mentioned in the last few days,
From the Korean media, the "currency swap necessity theory" comes out.
South Korea's Wuhan Pneumonia virus (Corona 19) threatens currency crisis ...
「CrisiS-Korea-US-JapaneCurrencySwapMostImportant1(From the Japanese version of JoongAng Ilbo on 2020.03.1810: 43 )
The article that says, Korean media
Published in "中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)" (Japanese version).
" U.S.-Korea / Japan-Korea currency swap is most important "
According to the 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)
The "dissertation" was published by 世宗（Sejong） University School of Business
Professor Kim Daejong (김대종)
(* Because I don't know the kanji, the notation is the same as the original article)Following the problem of the "new pneumonia"
He said the following:
Wuhan pneumonia virus (Corona 19) problem banned human movement and reduced trade,
Concerns about second currency crisis are increasing in South Korea
US Foreign Currency Swap Needed to Expand to $ 830 Billion
For the first part of this claim,
"If the flow of people and things is slow, the flow of money will also be slow."
In that regard, it is true.
In fact, the 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)
" South Korea's main industries: semiconductor, automotive, petrochemical and electronics
Exports in all industries have fallen sharply.
Korea's current account, which is 75% dependent on trade, may fall into the red in March . "
And reveal the sense of crisis.
However, the second half of the claim is not well understood.
According to BIS statistics, the money that Korea borrows from foreign financial institutions is
Roughly $ 320 billion (including foreign currency and local currency)
(* Based on the end of September 2019 ),
Short-term debt denominated in foreign currencies is a little over $ 110 billion.
So the extreme story,
Korea's foreign exchange reserves should cover this short-term debt, especially in dollars
That's enough, and we don't know exactly why the $ 830 billion was calculated.
US dollar required
By the way, in the article of 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo), casually,
" During the currency crisis of 1997 , the proportion of short-term foreign debt increased,
It began with the outflow of Japanese funds .
After that, many foreign investors recovered funds at once, causing a currency crisis . "
As if Japanese financial institutions triggered the Korean currency crisis
They have a discussion like this,
This is a vicious forgery .
In any case, this Kim Daejong(김대종)
"Wuhan Pneumonia virus (Corona 19) causes global dollar shortage,
Korea-Japan and Korea-US currency swap refusal,
Korea's short-term external debt ratio rising,
75% Korea's high dependence on trade,
And emerging market defaults
The uncertainty of international financial markets is increasing.
Most important is the signing of a US-South Korea-Japan currency swap.
We have to double our foreign currency reserves as soon as possible. "
It seems that he said.
To get the US dollar liquidity that Korea needs,
A foreign-exchange swap with the US Fed,
You need one of the US dollar currency swaps with the Japanese Ministry of Finance,
That's right, but it must be said that the discussion is too bold.
at least
First of all, the problem set up in front of the Japanese embassy,
An ugly statue of a self-proclaimed former 慰安婦 (Comfort woman = Sex Slaves = Prostitute)
Self-proclaimed recruiter
『朝鮮半島出身応募労働者
(Applicant workers from the Korean Peninsula)』problem,
Fire control radar irradiation incident,
Insult of 上皇陛下（The Emperor Emeritus）
Unless an appropriate apology and recovery measures are taken for Japan's damages,
A Japanese-Korean currency swap should not be concluded with a dollar.
About swap with G20
Well, such a long-awaited swap theory is not only for scholars and business people,
It seems that it is spreading even among active politicians.
In fact, according to the 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo),
Korean ruling party
Korean ruling party李海瓚（I Haechan、이해찬）
Korea ruling party representative
「RulingConcludesCurrencySwapBeforeSpreadToCurrenc (From the Japanese version of JoongAng Ilbo on 2020.03.1811: 29 )According to the 中央日報(JoongAng Ilbo)
He said at a meeting held in the National Assembly on the 18th .
" Fortunately, the revised budget passed yesterday
However, compared to the 2008 financial crisis, the response to the crisis is still not enough.
Before financial market concerns spread to the currency crisis
We need to take preemptive measures, such as entering into currency swaps. ''
However, even after reading this statement by 李海瓚（IHaechan、이해찬）,
"Japan-Korea Currency Swap", "US-Korea Foreign Exchange Swap"
Is not mentioned.
After all, from the standpoint of the ruling party,
Even if current Japan is wrong, it will not sign a swap with Korea
You understand that well.
Instead, what has come up in the Korean media in recent days is
It is a "swap with G20 countries" theory.
『G7emergencyMetS-KoreaStronglyAwareExchangeSwap1
However, in connection with the topic that the Korean government proposed to the United States an emergency G20 video conference,Former Prime Minister 李洛淵（Lee Nak-yeon,이낙연）,
"We should actively conclude a currency swap with the G20."
Was also introduced.
However, this G20 is various,
Issuing international hard currency
Some countries include Japan, the United States, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom, Canada,
Rather, some countries run into a shortage of funds during the international currency crisis.
G7 and G20 countries
G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States
G20 countries: G7 countries plus the following 13 countries and regions
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia,
South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,
Turkey, European Union (EU) and European Central Bank (ECB)
(Source: Bank of Japan, " What is G20? What is G7? ")
Reference: G20
(Source: US Congressional Budget Office )
In fact, Korea is out of the G20
Currency swap with Australia and Indonesia
Foreign -exchange swap with Canada
Has concluded
However, the currency swap with Indonesia is
In other words, it is a swap between soft currency countries,
It is even harmful rather than useless during a crisis.
Also, a foreign-exchange swap with Canada
A liquidity vehicle to supply Canadian dollars to Korean banks,
U.S. dollar shortage likely during crisis
It is useless as a remedy for Korean financial institutions.
Korean real intention
Then, I said "swap with G20"
Where is the "honest" of Korea?
Perhaps, in fact,
It is unclear that only Korea offers to receive support from the international community.
"G20"
Aiming at concluding a cooperative swap to support Korea,
I guess.
Speaking more, "G7" instead of "G20"
You want a currency swap / foreign-exchange swap.
(Especially a swap with the European Central Bank (ECB) in addition to the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom)
In the past, without begging the international community for a swap,
If you plead with Japan below the surface ,
In the past, the Japanese Ministry of Finance made a good reason,
And he signed a currency swap with Korea
But, as expected, in the current situation
It is impossible for Japan to enter into a currency swap with Korea .
That's why South Korea involved the G20,
The company is forcing a swap with Japan and the United States.
However, for Japan, once you have signed a G20 swap,
Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey
In a country with a very weak currency position, etc.
Foreign currency (blackmail gaffle)
I don't think it works.
In any case,
The G20 swap can be considered an “ impossible agreement ”.
However, if G20 countries except Japan can enter into a currency swap,
Japan pushes Korea's care to ECB and UK
In that sense, it may be an opportunity ... (laughs).
※ (That's it for the text) .