GOP is abandoning Bush? Not quite

By Richard Benedetto

The Washington punditocracy has proclaimed far and wide that Republicans, disenchanted with the war in Iraq, are abandoning President Bush in droves, leaving him the lamest of lame ducks. However, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll suggests Bush might not be as wounded as he appears ― at least not among his party faithful.

The Feb. 9-11 poll puts Bush's job approval at 37%, but among people who identify themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, his approval rating is 76%.

Thus, despite bad news from Baghdad and carefully crafted hand-wringing by high-profile GOP war critics in Congress such as Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, three of four Republicans in the country are hanging in there with the president.

The poll also shows that rank-and-file Republicans have higher regard for the president than they do Republicans in Congress. They gave GOP lawmakers a 63% job-approval rating, 13 points below Bush's. And 72% of Republicans do not think Bush made a mistake sending U.S. troops to Iraq.

So if congressional Republicans figure the key to re-election in 2008 is taking a hard line against Bush on Iraq, they could be dead wrong. They might lure some independents, but they risk alienating their GOP base. To win, you need solid support from your base plus independents, not independents alone.

Conventional wisdom also says the presidential ambitions of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could be derailed by his strong support for the war. This poll, however, shows that his stance could be a plus among the base.

What does this high approval among Republicans mean for Bush? It means that as long as his party support remains that strong, he won't fall below 30% approval, a depth that would virtually extinguish his political power. The lowest Bush has fallen is 31%, still enough to make him a significant, although wounded, force in legislative battles with the Democratic-controlled Congress.

The latest congressional skirmish over Iraq underscores the point. In the House's non-binding vote to oppose the president's deployment of more troops to Baghdad, 17 Republicans voted with 229 Democrats to pass the measure. Four GOP representatives didn't vote. Lost was the fact that 180 Republicans stuck with Bush. By that count, Bush gets a 92% loyalty standing among House Republicans who voted. Hardly a GOP exodus.

In the Senate, Democrats fell four votes short of the 60 needed to force a vote on an identical Iraq resolution. Why? Not enough Republicans would go along. Indeed, seven GOP senators broke with the president, and nine didn't vote, yet 33 held firm. Among GOP senators who voted, that's an 83% Republican loyalty rating for Bush.

Though the president may have lost the country on the issues of the day, rumors of his demise among Republicans voters and lawmakers are greatly exaggerated.

Richard Benedetto retired last year as White House correspondent for USA TODAY. He teaches journalism and politics at American University in Washington and is author of Politicians Are People, Too.

USATODAY.com

中国首相、訪日時に共同声明を＝日朝「米に遅れぬよう」と外務次官

　【北京28日時事】中国の温家宝首相は28日、北京訪問中の自民党の丹羽雄哉総務会長と会談し、自身の4月の訪日に関して「安倍晋三首相と戦略的互恵関係について話し合い、共同声明を出したい」と述べ、共通認識を文書として策定する意向を明らかにした。
　温首相はまた、拉致問題については「理解と同情心を持っており、（日朝関係正常化に関する作業部会などを通じて）問題が解決されることを希望する」と期待感を示した。
　ただ、これに先立ち丹羽氏と会談した戴秉国外務次官は日朝関係正常化に関して「米国に遅れないよう切迫感を持って臨んでもらいたい」と苦言を呈した。　

Yahoo!ニュース - 時事通信 - 中国首相、訪日時に共同声明を＝日朝「米に遅れぬよう」と外務次官

日朝作業部会 来月７日にハノイで開催へ

　政府は２８日、北朝鮮の核問題をめぐる６カ国協議で合意した日朝国交正常化に関する作業部会を３月７、８両日にベトナム・ハノイで開催すると発表した。６日の非公式協議で、作業部会の進め方などを調整する。

　日朝の直接交渉は昨年２月の並行協議以来、１年１カ月ぶり。日本側交渉団は原口幸市・日朝国交正常化交渉担当大使が団長を務める。北朝鮮からは宋日昊・日朝国交正常化交渉担当大使が出席する方向。

　塩崎恭久官房長官は記者会見で、「北朝鮮が拉致問題に正面から取り組み、早期解決に向けた具体的進展を図るよう求めたい。進展に合わせ、わが国も国交正常化交渉に積極的に取り組み、６カ国協議でも一層の貢献を行う用意がある」と述べた。

　政府は、先の６カ国協議で「拉致問題が進展しない限り、対北支援に応じない」との基本方針を貫いた。作業部会でも（１）拉致被害者の早期帰国（２）特定失踪（しつそう）者の再調査（３）実行犯の引き渡し－などを求め、北朝鮮の誠意ある対応を促す考えだ。これに対し北朝鮮側は「拉致問題は解決済み」として、国交正常化交渉を先行させようとするとみられ、協議の難航も予想される。

　先の６カ国協議では、北朝鮮が核施設の停止・封印などを受け入れる見返りに、他の５カ国が重油５万トン相当の支援を行うことで合意。３０日以内に「朝鮮半島の非核化」「米朝国交正常化」「日朝国交正常化」など５つの作業部会を開き、合意事項の実施計画などを協議することを決めた。

　３月５日には米朝作業部会がニューヨークで開かれる見通しで、日本政府は米国と歩調をあわせ、拉致問題の進展を図りたい考え。

(2007/02/28 12:11)

日朝作業部会　来月７日にハノイで開催へ｜政策｜政治｜Sankei WEB