1. The US’s Offshore Balancing Strategy, which is destined to fail
The US’s National Security Strategy announced in November 2025 indicates that the US would concentrate on South America. It doesn’t include harsh and offensive words against China. [1]
Also, so-called tariff war between the US and China seems to be in ceasefire so to speak after China countered with rare metal restrictions against the US’s imposing high tariffs.
So, some people says that the relations between the US and China has entered a new phase where the US treats China as a peer.
However, such a way of perception on the current global situation is naive and even dangerous for the security of China.
The US has been assuming so-called “Offshore Balancing Strategy” for decades under which the US would not directly fight against super powers such as China and Russia. Instead, the US would leave its allies to harass and militarily engage with China and Russia. [2]
Also, the US leaves Israel and its Mossad to attack Iran.
[President Trump and his puppet in Europe President Vladimir Zelensky of Ukraine]
[President Trump and his puppet in Asia PM Sanae Takaichi of Japan]
[President Trump and his puppet in the Middle East PM Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel]
Thus, not having money or troops, the US leaves Russia, Iran and China to Ukraine, Israel and Japan respectively. The US only supplies weapons and ammunition, military intelligence, indirect military support such as satellite navigation and guidance etc.
This is not a new strategy. Actually, the US supported Nazis financially in 1930s so that Germany would harass France and Britain and eventually attack the Soviet Union during WW2. Meanwhile, the US allowed Imperial Japan to destroy France, Britain and Netherlands' colonial empires in Asia.
Joseph Stalin could not perceive the US’s hidden motivation and trusted the US as an ally during WW2.
Also, 1960-1970s, the US used South Vietnam to block spread of communism toward South East Asia.
The US has never abandoned its objectives of conquering and regime-changing Russia, China and Iran. The US has decided to do that together with Ukraine, Japan and Israel.
However, at the end of the day, the US's strategy will fail because Russia will overwhelm Ukraine, China will destroy Japan, and Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel. Let me explain.
2. Russia will overwhelm Ukraine
Russia has realized that main force of the 21st century land battle is not tanks or helicopters but swarm of drones.
Russia will overwhelm Ukraine, which is backed by NATO, and conquer Kiev, establishing neutral buffer zones for lasting peace in Europe. [3]
[Russia is mass producing military drones and put hundreds of them into attacking Ukraine per a day]
Russia would demand that Russian occupied territories should belong to Russia and that neo-Nazi regime of Ukraine should be removed and that Ukraine should never join NATO.
If Ukraine doesn’t accept them, Russia would continue offensive and conquer Kiev. [4]
[Russian army is advancing, securing its already occupied regions and enlarging a demilitarized buffer zone between its occupied regions and Ukraine proper]
The root cause of Ukraine War is an excessive eastward expansion of NATO that significantly threatened Russia’s national security.
For establishing peace, NATO must be brought back westward “hopefully by diplomacy” but “by military measures if necessary”.
[Russian army is advancing, securing its already occupied regions and enlarging a demilitarized buffer zone between its occupied regions and Ukraine proper]
[A demilitarized buffer zone would be set up between Poland and Belarus]
[Central European countries including Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, and Bulgaria would form a neutral state buffer zone to establish lasting peace in Europe]
3. China will destroy Japan
PM Takaichi of Japan is notorious for her worshiping Class-A war criminals of WW2 and wants to accomplish what they attempted to do, i.e., conquering China and establishing Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
[PM Sanae Takaichi declared that Japan will put JSDF into Taiwan contingencies, which will be an aggression and war crime because Taiwan is a part of China]
[Class-A war criminal PM Hideki Tojo who were a Japanese PM in WW2 and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Class-A war criminal Seishiro Itagaki (left) who carried out Mukden incident of 1931 to occupy Manchuria, and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2 and Class-A war criminal Kenji Doihiara (right) who was a main architect of Japan’s puppet state Manchukuo and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Class-A war criminal Iwane Matsui, who was a commander of Imperial Japan’s Central China Area Army that committed Nanjing Massacre in 1937 and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Imperial Japanese Army slaughtered as many as 300 thousands of Chinese people in Nanjing Massacre]
Don’t underestimate the firm and deep far-right conviction of PM Takaichi. For her, the Chinese people are an inferior race that Japan has the privilege to kill.
She believes that Imperial Japan could not conquer China in 1940s because the US intervened and attacked Japan and that, now, the US supporting and backing Japan, Japan can conquer China.
PM Takaichi's firm conviction is based upon her belief that the US will supply to Japan nukes and cyber attack capability, with which Japan would be able to counter PLA, and, working with the US intelligence organizations, overthrow the CPC government.
Currently, the Takaichi administration is escalating tension against China by PM Takaichi’s remark of putting JSDF into Taiwan contingencies and a false flag operation of alleging China’s fighter jets locked its radar on JSDF’s fighter jet to shoot down.
Obviously, PM Takaichi is planning to use the tension to justify Japan’s nuke-arming. Japan will soon procure nukes from the US, share and use them to attack China.
Also, Japan will procure from the US every skill and technique of cyber attack that Japan will use against China. Even US government officials and military personnel will directly support and join Japan's cyber attack against China.
China should abandon a wishful thinking that peace-loving Japanese people would remove PM Takaichi. On the contrary, the Takaichi administration will remove peace-advocating politicians, scholars, commentators and activists.
[Backed by Japanese media under control of the US, approval rate of the Takaichi cabinet is as high as 75%][5]
Under the Parliamentary political system of Japan, ruling parties have control over both the Parliament and the cabinet. Therefore, PM Takaichi has an almost dictatorial power.
Even if the Takaichi cabinet's approval rate goes down below 10% and however hard international community opposes, the Takaichi cabinet will never stop its war crimes of aggression, possessing nukes and putting JSDF into Taiwan contingencies.
China should not misunderstand. The Western democracy is a system under which a small number of rich people control the majority of poor people. Even if 90% of Japanese people oppose nuke-arming, the Japanese government will acquire nukes and use them against China.
China should not have a wishful expectation of de-escalation of the tension. Soon, Japan and the US will conspire and make a false flag operation like a Mukden incident to justify Japan's nuke-arming.
Given evil, offensive and deceptive nature of Japan, Japan is likely to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing immediately after Japan obtains nukes either openly or secretly, killing as many CPC leadership as possible. [6]
Only PLA's military power can stop it. China should attack Japan now to destroy JSDF.
[Possible JSDF’s plan map to attack Beijing:
JSDF’s F-15 squadrons would be used as a decoy in the East China Sea while the main attack squadron of JSDF’s F-35s with nukes would fly over Korean Peninsula to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing]
[JSDF would use F-35 stealth fighter jets to sneak into China’s mainland and drop nukes in Beijing]
If China gives time to Japan, Japan will procure nukes from the US, share and use them to attack Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.
Soon, Japan will acquire nukes and cyber attack capability from the US. Then, Japan will be able to destroy China and overthrow the CPC govt.
China should attack Japan now.
At this moment now, China can destroy JSDF and prevent the US's intervention.
China should invoke the Enemy State Clause of the UN Chapter and attack Japan now to destroy JSDF completely before Japan obtains nukes.
[China’s military parade of September 3rd 2025]
[China’s DF-17 hypersonic missile, against which Japan has no defense]
[China’s DF-26 intermediate ballistic missile, which can be armed with a nuclear warhead]
[The range of DF-26 covers not only entire Japan’s mainland but Guam as well]
President Putin was clever. He knew that, if he had done nothing, Ukraine would have joined NATO and acquired nukes. Therefore, he decided to make a preemptive attack against Ukraine. Russia will win the war.
China should attack Japan now to destroy JSDF.
Another thing that President Putin has been clever about is that he has been able to perfectly keep under his control Russian military forces, Russian companies and Russian people.
When China attacks Japan, the CPC needs to perfectly keep under its control PLA, Chinese companies, Chinese business tycoons and Chinese people.
Therefore, China needs to finish the war within a few days by all out attack from the day one.
By attacking Japan now, China can kill 11 birds with 1 stone. [7]
(1) Destroying JSDF
(2) Preventing Japan’s nuke-arming forever
(3) Destroying Japan’s arms industry
(4) Showing PLA's mighty power
(5) Proving the US's proxy war strategy fails
(6) Making US military bases in Japan dysfunctional
(7) Making NATO operations in Asia impossible
(8) Independence of Ryukyu Kingdom
(9) Ruling over Diaoyu Dao
(10) War reparations
(11) Enhancing reputation of China’s weapons in markets
[Shureimon Gate of the Ryukyu Kingdom, Okinawa, Japan]
[Diaoyu Dao (Senkaku Islands)]
In late December 2025, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that, in Taiwan contingencies, Russia will support China. [8]
This is a big diplomatic victory for China because Russia’s fighting together with China will make a swift victory against Japan an even more sure thing.
Russia’s vowing to support China on Taiwan contingencies also has a very strong intimidating effect over the Japanese people, because the Soviet Union’s Red Army defeated Imperal Japan’s Kwantung Army in Battles of Khalkhin Gol of 1939 and overwhelmed and drove out Kwantung Army out of Manchukuo within only a week in 1945.
[Red Army’s operation map in Manchuria of August 1945]
After WW2, as many as 600 thousands captured Japanese soldiers and civilians were used as labor forces for years to develop Siberia.
The Japanese people still fear Russia for Russia’s cruelty and military strength.
4. Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel
Trump said that the US would attack Iran if Iran rebuilds its nuclear program. [9]
When Israel attacked Iran last time in June 2025, Iran retaliated with hypersonic ballistic missiles. [10]
However, Israel has nuclear weapons. Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
[Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (right)]
So, Iran approached Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, and entered a mutual defense treaty in August 2025. [11]
Pakistan entered a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia as well in September 2025. [12]
[Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right)]
Pakistan imported China’s J-10 fighter jets with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, which shot down India’s 4.5 generation Rafale fighter jets imported from France during a military clash in May 2025.
Israel’s main fighter jets are obsolete 4th generation F-16 fighter jets.
If Israel attacks Iran, Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel.
Thank you.
References:
(1) National Security Strategy of the United States of America, November 2025, The White House
(2) ”The Case for Offshore Balancing”, June 2016, Foreign Affairs
(3) ”US/EUROPE’S ATTACK ON RUSSIA & CHINA WILL FAIL”, March 21st 2025, My blog article
(4) ”RUSSIA SHOULD CONQUER KIEV TO REMOVE ZELENSKY”, March 1st 2025, My blog article
(5) 「高市内閣支持率75・9％ 高水準を維持 「年収の壁」引き上げは約8割が評価」、2025年12月22日、産経新聞
(6) ”JAPAN WILL ATTACK BEIJING WITH NUKES”, December 30th 2025, My blog article
(7) ”CHINA CAN ATTACK JAPAN WITH EMP & TACTICAL NUKES”, December 7th 2025, My blog article
(8) ”Russia vows to support China if Taiwan contingency flares up: Top diplomat”, December 28th 2025, The Straits Times
(9) ”Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear program”, December 30th 2025, DW
(10) ”Iran launches waves of missiles at Israel in response to attacks”, June 13th 2025, Al Jazeera
(11) ”Pakistan’s Sharif hosts Iran’s Pezeshkian, agrees to security, trade boost”, August 3rd 2025, Al Jazeera
(12) ”As US reliability falters, Saudi Arabia turns to a nuclear-armed ally”, September 19th 2025, CNN
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
The US’s National Security Strategy announced in November 2025 indicates that the US would concentrate on South America. It doesn’t include harsh and offensive words against China. [1]
Also, so-called tariff war between the US and China seems to be in ceasefire so to speak after China countered with rare metal restrictions against the US’s imposing high tariffs.
So, some people says that the relations between the US and China has entered a new phase where the US treats China as a peer.
However, such a way of perception on the current global situation is naive and even dangerous for the security of China.
The US has been assuming so-called “Offshore Balancing Strategy” for decades under which the US would not directly fight against super powers such as China and Russia. Instead, the US would leave its allies to harass and militarily engage with China and Russia. [2]
Also, the US leaves Israel and its Mossad to attack Iran.
[President Trump and his puppet in Europe President Vladimir Zelensky of Ukraine]
[President Trump and his puppet in Asia PM Sanae Takaichi of Japan]
[President Trump and his puppet in the Middle East PM Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel]
Thus, not having money or troops, the US leaves Russia, Iran and China to Ukraine, Israel and Japan respectively. The US only supplies weapons and ammunition, military intelligence, indirect military support such as satellite navigation and guidance etc.
This is not a new strategy. Actually, the US supported Nazis financially in 1930s so that Germany would harass France and Britain and eventually attack the Soviet Union during WW2. Meanwhile, the US allowed Imperial Japan to destroy France, Britain and Netherlands' colonial empires in Asia.
Joseph Stalin could not perceive the US’s hidden motivation and trusted the US as an ally during WW2.
Also, 1960-1970s, the US used South Vietnam to block spread of communism toward South East Asia.
The US has never abandoned its objectives of conquering and regime-changing Russia, China and Iran. The US has decided to do that together with Ukraine, Japan and Israel.
However, at the end of the day, the US's strategy will fail because Russia will overwhelm Ukraine, China will destroy Japan, and Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel. Let me explain.
2. Russia will overwhelm Ukraine
Russia has realized that main force of the 21st century land battle is not tanks or helicopters but swarm of drones.
Russia will overwhelm Ukraine, which is backed by NATO, and conquer Kiev, establishing neutral buffer zones for lasting peace in Europe. [3]
[Russia is mass producing military drones and put hundreds of them into attacking Ukraine per a day]
Russia would demand that Russian occupied territories should belong to Russia and that neo-Nazi regime of Ukraine should be removed and that Ukraine should never join NATO.
If Ukraine doesn’t accept them, Russia would continue offensive and conquer Kiev. [4]
[Russian army is advancing, securing its already occupied regions and enlarging a demilitarized buffer zone between its occupied regions and Ukraine proper]
The root cause of Ukraine War is an excessive eastward expansion of NATO that significantly threatened Russia’s national security.
For establishing peace, NATO must be brought back westward “hopefully by diplomacy” but “by military measures if necessary”.
[Russian army is advancing, securing its already occupied regions and enlarging a demilitarized buffer zone between its occupied regions and Ukraine proper]
[A demilitarized buffer zone would be set up between Poland and Belarus]
[Central European countries including Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, and Bulgaria would form a neutral state buffer zone to establish lasting peace in Europe]
3. China will destroy Japan
PM Takaichi of Japan is notorious for her worshiping Class-A war criminals of WW2 and wants to accomplish what they attempted to do, i.e., conquering China and establishing Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
[PM Sanae Takaichi declared that Japan will put JSDF into Taiwan contingencies, which will be an aggression and war crime because Taiwan is a part of China]
[Class-A war criminal PM Hideki Tojo who were a Japanese PM in WW2 and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Class-A war criminal Seishiro Itagaki (left) who carried out Mukden incident of 1931 to occupy Manchuria, and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2 and Class-A war criminal Kenji Doihiara (right) who was a main architect of Japan’s puppet state Manchukuo and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Class-A war criminal Iwane Matsui, who was a commander of Imperial Japan’s Central China Area Army that committed Nanjing Massacre in 1937 and was given a death sentence at International Military Tribunal after WW2]
[Imperial Japanese Army slaughtered as many as 300 thousands of Chinese people in Nanjing Massacre]
Don’t underestimate the firm and deep far-right conviction of PM Takaichi. For her, the Chinese people are an inferior race that Japan has the privilege to kill.
She believes that Imperial Japan could not conquer China in 1940s because the US intervened and attacked Japan and that, now, the US supporting and backing Japan, Japan can conquer China.
PM Takaichi's firm conviction is based upon her belief that the US will supply to Japan nukes and cyber attack capability, with which Japan would be able to counter PLA, and, working with the US intelligence organizations, overthrow the CPC government.
Currently, the Takaichi administration is escalating tension against China by PM Takaichi’s remark of putting JSDF into Taiwan contingencies and a false flag operation of alleging China’s fighter jets locked its radar on JSDF’s fighter jet to shoot down.
Obviously, PM Takaichi is planning to use the tension to justify Japan’s nuke-arming. Japan will soon procure nukes from the US, share and use them to attack China.
Also, Japan will procure from the US every skill and technique of cyber attack that Japan will use against China. Even US government officials and military personnel will directly support and join Japan's cyber attack against China.
China should abandon a wishful thinking that peace-loving Japanese people would remove PM Takaichi. On the contrary, the Takaichi administration will remove peace-advocating politicians, scholars, commentators and activists.
[Backed by Japanese media under control of the US, approval rate of the Takaichi cabinet is as high as 75%][5]
Under the Parliamentary political system of Japan, ruling parties have control over both the Parliament and the cabinet. Therefore, PM Takaichi has an almost dictatorial power.
Even if the Takaichi cabinet's approval rate goes down below 10% and however hard international community opposes, the Takaichi cabinet will never stop its war crimes of aggression, possessing nukes and putting JSDF into Taiwan contingencies.
China should not misunderstand. The Western democracy is a system under which a small number of rich people control the majority of poor people. Even if 90% of Japanese people oppose nuke-arming, the Japanese government will acquire nukes and use them against China.
China should not have a wishful expectation of de-escalation of the tension. Soon, Japan and the US will conspire and make a false flag operation like a Mukden incident to justify Japan's nuke-arming.
Given evil, offensive and deceptive nature of Japan, Japan is likely to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing immediately after Japan obtains nukes either openly or secretly, killing as many CPC leadership as possible. [6]
Only PLA's military power can stop it. China should attack Japan now to destroy JSDF.
[Possible JSDF’s plan map to attack Beijing:
JSDF’s F-15 squadrons would be used as a decoy in the East China Sea while the main attack squadron of JSDF’s F-35s with nukes would fly over Korean Peninsula to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing]
[JSDF would use F-35 stealth fighter jets to sneak into China’s mainland and drop nukes in Beijing]
If China gives time to Japan, Japan will procure nukes from the US, share and use them to attack Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.
Soon, Japan will acquire nukes and cyber attack capability from the US. Then, Japan will be able to destroy China and overthrow the CPC govt.
China should attack Japan now.
At this moment now, China can destroy JSDF and prevent the US's intervention.
China should invoke the Enemy State Clause of the UN Chapter and attack Japan now to destroy JSDF completely before Japan obtains nukes.
[China’s military parade of September 3rd 2025]
[China’s DF-17 hypersonic missile, against which Japan has no defense]
[China’s DF-26 intermediate ballistic missile, which can be armed with a nuclear warhead]
[The range of DF-26 covers not only entire Japan’s mainland but Guam as well]
President Putin was clever. He knew that, if he had done nothing, Ukraine would have joined NATO and acquired nukes. Therefore, he decided to make a preemptive attack against Ukraine. Russia will win the war.
China should attack Japan now to destroy JSDF.
Another thing that President Putin has been clever about is that he has been able to perfectly keep under his control Russian military forces, Russian companies and Russian people.
When China attacks Japan, the CPC needs to perfectly keep under its control PLA, Chinese companies, Chinese business tycoons and Chinese people.
Therefore, China needs to finish the war within a few days by all out attack from the day one.
By attacking Japan now, China can kill 11 birds with 1 stone. [7]
(1) Destroying JSDF
(2) Preventing Japan’s nuke-arming forever
(3) Destroying Japan’s arms industry
(4) Showing PLA's mighty power
(5) Proving the US's proxy war strategy fails
(6) Making US military bases in Japan dysfunctional
(7) Making NATO operations in Asia impossible
(8) Independence of Ryukyu Kingdom
(9) Ruling over Diaoyu Dao
(10) War reparations
(11) Enhancing reputation of China’s weapons in markets
[Shureimon Gate of the Ryukyu Kingdom, Okinawa, Japan]
[Diaoyu Dao (Senkaku Islands)]
In late December 2025, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that, in Taiwan contingencies, Russia will support China. [8]
This is a big diplomatic victory for China because Russia’s fighting together with China will make a swift victory against Japan an even more sure thing.
Russia’s vowing to support China on Taiwan contingencies also has a very strong intimidating effect over the Japanese people, because the Soviet Union’s Red Army defeated Imperal Japan’s Kwantung Army in Battles of Khalkhin Gol of 1939 and overwhelmed and drove out Kwantung Army out of Manchukuo within only a week in 1945.
[Red Army’s operation map in Manchuria of August 1945]
After WW2, as many as 600 thousands captured Japanese soldiers and civilians were used as labor forces for years to develop Siberia.
The Japanese people still fear Russia for Russia’s cruelty and military strength.
4. Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel
Trump said that the US would attack Iran if Iran rebuilds its nuclear program. [9]
When Israel attacked Iran last time in June 2025, Iran retaliated with hypersonic ballistic missiles. [10]
However, Israel has nuclear weapons. Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
[Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (right)]
So, Iran approached Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, and entered a mutual defense treaty in August 2025. [11]
Pakistan entered a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia as well in September 2025. [12]
[Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right)]
Pakistan imported China’s J-10 fighter jets with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, which shot down India’s 4.5 generation Rafale fighter jets imported from France during a military clash in May 2025.
Israel’s main fighter jets are obsolete 4th generation F-16 fighter jets.
If Israel attacks Iran, Iran, supported by China, Russia and Pakistan, will overwhelm Israel.
Thank you.
References:
(1) National Security Strategy of the United States of America, November 2025, The White House
(2) ”The Case for Offshore Balancing”, June 2016, Foreign Affairs
(3) ”US/EUROPE’S ATTACK ON RUSSIA & CHINA WILL FAIL”, March 21st 2025, My blog article
(4) ”RUSSIA SHOULD CONQUER KIEV TO REMOVE ZELENSKY”, March 1st 2025, My blog article
(5) 「高市内閣支持率75・9％ 高水準を維持 「年収の壁」引き上げは約8割が評価」、2025年12月22日、産経新聞
(6) ”JAPAN WILL ATTACK BEIJING WITH NUKES”, December 30th 2025, My blog article
(7) ”CHINA CAN ATTACK JAPAN WITH EMP & TACTICAL NUKES”, December 7th 2025, My blog article
(8) ”Russia vows to support China if Taiwan contingency flares up: Top diplomat”, December 28th 2025, The Straits Times
(9) ”Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear program”, December 30th 2025, DW
(10) ”Iran launches waves of missiles at Israel in response to attacks”, June 13th 2025, Al Jazeera
(11) ”Pakistan’s Sharif hosts Iran’s Pezeshkian, agrees to security, trade boost”, August 3rd 2025, Al Jazeera
(12) ”As US reliability falters, Saudi Arabia turns to a nuclear-armed ally”, September 19th 2025, CNN
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
