BUILDING LASTING PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The war between the US/Israel and Iran is producing a number of new realities and new prospects day by day.

Having said that, however, when we observe what has happened so far, we can notice several concrete facts that would continue to remain for the foreseeable future.
So, based upon them, we can have mid-term and long-term perspectives.


1. The current situation of the Middle East

Since the outbreak of the US and Israel’s illegal aggression against Iran, Iran has been carrying out defensive operations, which is legal according to article 51 of the UN Charter, retaliating with massive missile and drone attacks.

As a result, most of the US’s military bases in the Middle East have been wiped out. [1][2][3]



[Before the war, there were numerous US military bases in the Middle East]


[Due to Iran’s missile and drone attacks, most of US military bases in the Middle East have been wiped out]


[The US’s military base in Bahrain before the war]


[The US’s military base in Bahrain after Iran’s attack]


[The US’s radars for tracking incoming missiles destroyed by Iran, the US military in the Middle East has become blind]


[US troops withdrawing from Kuweit]


The US and Israel are running out of their interceptor missiles. [4][5]


[Israel’s Arrow interceptor missile. Israel is running out of interceptor missiles]


[Running short of interceptor missiles, the US moved THAAD missiles from South Korea to the Middle East]



[Israel having used up its interceptor missiles, Iran’s missiles are pounding cities of Israel one after another]


[Tel Aviv is under Iran’s massive missile attack]



Meanwhile, reportedly, Iran is said to still possess roughly 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones. [6]


[Iran’s drones and missiles. Please note Shahed drone has a range of as long as 2,500 km]




Moreover, Iran keeps manufacturing missiles and drones in underground factories, outpacing and outproducing the US and Israel.


[Iran’s assembly line in an underground missile factory]


[Iran is mass producing missiles in underground factories]

Iran’s military officials say that Iran can keep waging the war for years.


[Addendum of April 12th 2026]

On April 12th 2026, President Trump announced that, immediately after the ceasefire, the US would naval blockade the Strait of Hormuz so that no vessel can sail through the Strait of Hormuz. [3]



Trump decided to blockade Strait of Hormuz to please US oil companies and harass China. However, it is futile.


Iran’s Shahed drones have a range of as long as 2,500 km. Iran would send waves of thousands of Shahed drones to attack and destroy USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli, which would end the US Navy’s myth of command of global sea.


[Iran’s drones and missiles. Please note Shahed drone has a range of as long as 2,500 km]


[Iran’s Shahed drones]


[USS Abraham Lincoln]


[USS Tripoli]



2. The prospect of the war in the Middle East

Under the current situation described above, the longer the war continues, the weaker the position of the US and Israel will become. Time is on the side of Iran.

Therefore, it is Iran that can dictate terms and conditions of a peace agreement to end the war.

If the US or Israel doesn’t accept Ira’s demands, Iran can keep attacking and waging the war to make the position of the US and Israel weaker and weaker.



[Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi]








Thus, for the war in the Middle East to be resolved through dialogue, all Iran’s demands must be fulfilled, i.e, (1) removal of all US military bases in the Middle East (2) (2) forming Arab Islamic Security Alliance including Iran and excluding the US and Israel (3) establishing the Middle East nuclear free zone including Israel, and (4) trillions of US dollars of reparations to be paid by the US and Israel to compensate the injuries of people of Gaza, Lebanon and Iran and the destruction of Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The war is likely to continue until November 2026 when the US midterm elections are to be held, where Republicans would suffer a historical defeat, and Democrats would win both the Senate and the House.



3. A new security arrangement for lasting peace in the Middle East

Under such circumstances, during the coming months, China can diplomatically design, engineer and implement a fundamental change in the security arrangement of the Middle East.



[China’s FM Wang Yi has been consistently advocating that the war should be resolved through dialogue and negotiations]


China, working together with Arab Islamic nations including Iran, can form and organize a new Arab Islamic security alliance including Iran and excluding the US and Israel, which will replace the US led obsolete security arrangement in the Middle East.


In the process of forming the Arab Islamic security alliance including Iran, the existing Iran-Pakistan mutual security pact and Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual security pact would be the basis. [7][8]


[Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (right)]


[Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right)]


Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey’s foreign ministers met and discussed a new security arrangement. [9]


[Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey’s foreign ministers met to discuss a new security arrangement
in Islamabad, Pakistan in March 2026]

Egypt is a BRICS member country. Saudi Arabia is a SCO partner country. Pakistan is a SCO member country. Turkey is an SCO partner country.



In 2023, China’s FM Wang Yi held talks with a joint delegation of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries in Beijing, supporting the unity of Arab Islamic countries. [10]


[Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with a joint delegation of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries in Beijing in 2023]


In addition, Arab Islamic nations including Iran need to deal with the menace of Israel’s nuclear weapons.

With this regard, China, together with Arab Islamic nations including Iran, can propose and establish the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone, demanding Israel to abandon its nuclear weapons. European countries such as Spain, France and Italy and the UN would support the establishment of the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone.



[The Middle East nuclear free zone should be established to eliminate Israel’s nuclear weapons]


The two state solution is to be implemented for Israel and Palestine.

Israel would be banned to possess army, navy or air force, allowed to have only militias with rifles.


As for Iran’s demand for compensation, Iran might collect it through charging expensive fees on the US and Israel affiliated oil tankers and gas carriers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is legal and legitimate, considering that Egypt collects fees from ships sailing through the Suez Canal.


[Addendum of April 17th 2026]

Pakistan Prime ‌Minister ​Shehbaz ​Sharif will ⁠visit ​Saudi ​Arabia, Qatar ​and ​Turkey from April ‌15 ⁠to 18. [11]


[Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right), April 16th 2026]

When Arab Islamic security alliance including Iran and excluding the US & Israel is established, the gulf states would rescind their security pact with the US.
The alliance would demand Israel to stop attacking Gaza and Lebanon and abandon its nukes.

When Arab Islamic security alliance including Iran and excluding the US & Israel is established and it kicks out the US military of the region, it would be an excellent precedent to kick out the US military of Asia.



4. Ramifications of the new security arrangement in the Middle East

After the establishment of Arab Islamic security alliance including Iran and excluding the US and Israel, the Middle East oil producing nations would arm themselves by importing defensive weapons from such countries as China, Russia, ROK, DPRK and Turkey.



[China’s 5th generation fighter jet J-35]


[Turkey’s 5th generation fighter jet TAI TF Kaan]


Meanwhile, since the US would not be able to defend the Middle East oil producing countries, the basis of Petrodollar has vanished. The Petrodollar agreement has become null and void.

Instead of Petrodollar, Petroyuan would become prevalent.



[The basis of Petrodollar has vanished]


[Petroyuan will replace Petrodollar]

The Middle East oil producing countries would use their Petroyuan to procure Chinese weapons and purchase China’s national bonds.


Thank you.


References:
(1) ”Iranian strikes damage at least 17 US sites across Middle East: Report”, March 11th 2026, Anadolu Agency

(2) ”13 U.S. Bases in Middle East Nearly Uninhabitable After Iran Missile Strikes — CENTCOM Forced to Disperse Troops as War Reshapes American Force Posture”, March 26th 2026, Defense Security Asia

(3) ”What to know about damage to U.S. military bases in Middle East?”, March 11th 2026, Xinhua

(4) ”Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, March 15th 2026, Semafor

(5) ”South Korea uneasy as US moves air defenses to Middle East”, March 16th 2026, DW

(6) ”Iran said to have told mediators arsenal intact”, April 8th 2026, Baha Breaking News

(7) ”Pakistan’s Sharif hosts Iran’s Pezeshkian, agrees to security, trade boost”, August 3rd 2025, Al Jazeera

(8) ”As US reliability falters, Saudi Arabia turns to a nuclear-armed ally”, September 19th 2025, CNN

(9) ”Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt discuss ways to bring permanent end to Iran war”, March 29th 2026, Al Arabiya

(10) ”Chinese FM holds talks with delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers”, November 21st 2023, AP

(11) ”Pakistan PM Sharif to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey this week”, April 15th 2026, Reuters


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

THE US WOULD ATTACK IRAN’S OIL & GAS INFRA

The war between the US/Israel and Iran is producing a number of new realities and new prospects day by day.

Accordingly, we need to update our perspectives regularly and constantly.


1. The US would attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure

On April 1st, President Trump made a speech in which he said that the US would hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the Stone Ages. [1]


[President Donald Trump made a prime-time address to the American public on the war in the Middle East on April 1st 2026]


Most people didn’t take his speech seriously and even ridiculed.

But, what does he really mean?


There is a possibility that Trump will order the US military to attack and completely destroy Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.

The US would use B-2 bombers to attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure including Kharg Island. In order to completely destroy Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, the US might use tactical nuclear weapons.




[B-2 bomber]


[Kharg Island]


[Iran’s oil refinery]

In addition, F-35s launched from the US’s aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships would make air bombardment against Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


[USS Abraham Lincoln]


[USS Tripoli]


[F-35s]


Also, Israel’s Air Force would attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


[Israel’s F-16s]

Iran has been repeatedly warning that, if its oil and gas infrastructure is attacked and destroyed, it will attack and destroy oil and gas infrastructure of gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain). [2]


[Iran’s missile attacks]


[The gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain)]




In that event, no oil or gas could be produced in or exported from the Middle East at all, whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed.


Then, Trump would declare that Iran is completely destroyed and brought back to the Stone Ages and that the mission is accomplished, withdrawing the US military forces from the Middle East.

There would be no landing operations by US marines or the 82nd airborne, which is a diversionary tactics to camouflage the real intention.


[Addendum of April 12th 2026]

On April 12th 2026, President Trump announced that, immediately after the ceasefire, the US would naval blockade the Strait of Hormuz so that no vessel can sail through the Strait of Hormuz. [3]



The US’s oil and gas companies want to make the price of oil go up to $200 per a barrel. So, it is likely that they ordered Trump to naval blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Shahed drones have a range of as long as 2,500 km. Iran would send swarms of thousands of Shahed drones to attack and destroy USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli, which would end the US Navy’s myth of command of global sea.


[Iran’s drones and missiles. Please note Shahed drone has a range of as long as 2,500 km]


[Iran’s Shahed drones]


[USS Abraham Lincoln]


[USS Tripoli]



Reportedly, Iran is said to still possess roughly 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones. [4]



2. The effects upon the US

Price of oil will hit $200 per a barrel or even more.

Higher oil price will lead to hyper inflation and recession, which will make stock prices go down worldwide.

Trump’s approval rating would go down as low as 10%.

However, President Trump wouldn’t care because the US is the largest oil producing country and would be able to endure even if no oil and gas is exported from the Middle East.

Trump would give permission to develop more oil and gas wells in the US so that US would be able to export more oil and gas and make big profits.


Due to higher oil and gas prices, US oil and gas companies would make huge amount of windfall profits.



Also, US defense industries would make huge amount of profits too because the US government would make expensive orders to defense industries to replenish weapons used up in the war.





The US’s Oil and gas companies and defense industries would provide huge amount of political donation to Trump and Republicans, which would help Republicans to maintain the majority at least in either the Senate or the House in the midterm election of November 2026.





3. The effects upon Israel

Left alone, Israel would keep being pounded by Iran’s missiles.

The US would keep providing financial and military support to Israel so that Israel would sustain itself.


[Iran’s massive missile attacks against Tel Aviv]


[Tel Aviv under attacks]



4. The effects upon China

China would suffer very much.

It is said that China imports more than 50% of imported oil from the Middle East. If no oil or gas can be exported from the Middle East, it would hamper China’s economic growth significantly.



China has a massive petroleum stockpiles, which some analysts estimate to be around 1.2-1.3 billion barrels. That could last up to 100 days. [5]

But, once oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East is destroyed, it would take years to resume oil and gas exports from the Middle East.

Hyper inflation might hit China.

China’s society might become unstable.

Sleeping cells implanted by the US would be activated, and unrest might break out in various parts in China.





5. The effects upon Japan

Japan imports 99% of its total crude oil needs. Japan relies heavily on the Middle East for over 90% of these supplies.

Japan would be forced to purchase and import extremely expensive US oil and gas.

Japan would be hit by hyper inflation and recession.


In order to deflect the people’s criticism, PM Takaichi stage false flag operations and blame China.

Just like Mukden Incident of 1931, JSDF would carry out false flag operations in which JSDF’s warplanes or warships would mysteriously crash or sink for an unknown cause around the area of the Diaoyu Islands or the Taiwan Strait.


[JSDF would carry out false-flag operations]

Japan would blame China, saying that JSDF was attacked by China.


Then, without any concrete evidence and despite China’s denial, Japan would declare that it should exercise its right of self-defense and attack China, launching extended-range missiles to such cities as Shanghai and Hangzhou.

Japan has already deployed extended-range missiles in Kumamoto Prefecture, which can hit the coastal area of China. [6]


[JSDF’s extended-range missile]


[The distance between Kumamoto Prefecture and Shanghai is less than 1,000 km, which means Shanghai is well within the range of JSDF’s missiles]


Japan has also deployed Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile missiles in Shizuoka Prefecture, which can hit the Chinese mainland. [7]


[JSDF’s Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile missile]






In addition to missiles deployed in Kumamoto and Shizuoka Prefectures, JSDF modified one of 8 Aegis destroyers so that it can launch Tomahawk missiles which can hit Beijing from East China Sea with nuclear warheads. [8]

JSDF is planing to modify all of its 8 Aegis destroyers so that they can launch Tomahawk missiles.


[JSDF’s Aegis destroyer “Chokai” was modified to launch Tomahawk missiles which can be equipped with nuclear warheads]





[Tomahawk missiles have range of 2,000 km. JSDF’s Aegis destroyer can launch Tomahawk missiles from off Okinawa Island to hit Beijing]


In order to prevent China’s air defense systems from shooting down Japan’s missiles, the US might deploy its covert operation vessels in the East China Sea disguised as ordinary freight ships that would emit powerful jamming.


[The US’s covert operation vessel “MV Ocean Trader”]


After the incident, Japan will accelerate getting itself nuke-armed by bringing US nukes into Japan and sharing them or producing nukes either openly or secretly.


Given Japan’s huge stockpile of Plutonium and given its technology, it would take only a few weeks for Japan to get nuke-armed.


[In November 2025, PM Takaichi declared that Japan would put JSDF into Taiwan contingency and get Japan nuke-armed]


[As stipulated in the Instrument of Japanese Surrender, Potsdam Declaration and Cairo Declaration, Taiwan is a part of China. Therefore, putting JSDF into Taiwan contingency constitutes an aggression and war crime]


[Japan will withdraw from NPT and get itself nuke-armed]


[Possible JSDF’s plan map to attack Beijing:
JSDF’s F-15 squadrons would be used as a decoy in the East China Sea while the main attack squadron of JSDF’s F-35s with nukes would fly over Korean Peninsula to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing]


[JSDF’s F-35 would attack Beijing with nukes]


[The Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China]




Given the evil and treacherous nature of Japan, it is likely that Japan will bring into, share or produce nukes either openly or secretly.



6. How to prevent the US’s attack against Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure

What could be done to prevent the US and Israel’s attack against Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure?


(1) Iran can make saturated missile attack against the US’s aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships to prevent US warplanes attack from these warships.

However, Iran would not be able to prevent B-2 bombers’ attacks against Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


(2) BRICS can make a joint statement calling not to attack oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East.

(3) China, European countries, BRICS and the Global South can make a UNGA resolution that oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East should not be attacked. [9][10]

(4) President Xi Jinping and President Putin can meet online and make a joint statement that attacks against Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure must not be made.



In the televised joint address, President Xi Jinping can harshly scold Trump and suggest that there would be a devastating effect upon the global economy if the US should attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


(5) Russia can air transport S-500 air defense systems to Iran, which could possibly shoot down B-2 bombers. But, since Russia would benefit from higher prices of oil and gas, Russia might not supply S-500s to Iran.


[Russia’s S-500 air defense system, which can shoot down B-2 bombers and F-35s]

(6) China can air transport its latest air defense systems to Iran.


[China’s air defense systems]

(7) China can send Type 055 destroyers to the Persian Gulf to protect Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


[China’s Type 055 deatroyer]


(8) Pakistan can send its Air Force to protect Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure from the US and Israel’s air bombardment.

(9) China might send volunteer squadrons of J-10s, J-20s and J-35s to protect Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.


Thank you.


References:
(1) ”Read the complete transcript of Trump’s address to the nation”, April 2nd 2026, AP

(2) ”As Iran targets oil infrastructure, Middle East war threatens global economy”, March 2nd 2026, France 24

(3) ”Trump says U.S. Navy will 'immediately' blockade Strait of Hormuz after ceasefire talks end without agreement”, April 12th 2026, PBS

(4) ”Iran said to have told mediators arsenal intact”, April 8th 2026, Baha Breaking News

(5) ”China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now”, March 20th 2026, The Guardian

(6) ”Long-range missile equipment sent to GSDF camp in city of Kumamoto”, March 9th 2026, The Japan Times

(7) 「熊本、静岡に長射程ミサイル配備　初の反撃能力、中国など念頭―防衛省」、2026年3月31日、時事通信

(8) 「イージス艦にトマホーク発射能力　敵基地攻撃、米で改修後に帰国」、2026年3月27日、共同通信

(9) Spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China Lin Jian’s X Posting on Five-Point Initiative of China and Pakistan for Restoring Peace and Stability in the Gulf and Middle East Region, April 1st 2026

(10) Spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China Lin Jian’s X Posting on a phone conversation of Chinese FM Wang Yi and German FM Johann Wadephu, April 3rd 2026


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

THE WAR IN MIDDLE EAST COULD CONTINUE UNTIL NOV

The war between the US/Israel and Iran is producing a number of new realities and new prospects day by day.

Accordingly, we need to update our perspectives regularly and constantly.


1. Trump is desperate to get out of the quagmire of the war in the Middle East

Trump is desperate and wants to get out of the war in the Middle East as soon as possible. He realized that it had been a blunder that he had started a war against Iran, which the US can never win. It’s a quagmire.

The latest polls indicate that Trump’s approval rating plunged as low as 36%. 61% of responders disapproves Trump’s war in the Middle East. [1][2]



The longer the war in the Middle East continues, the further Trump’s approval rate will go down, because the US will soon be hit by hyper-inflation and depression simultaneously. Also, a number of body bags will be transported to the US.

If the war continues until November, Republicans will surely be terribly defeated in the midterm elections of November 2026. Democrats will gain the majority both in the Senate and the House. Trump will become a lame duck. He will be impeached and kicked out of White House.

Criminal charges will follow for his war crimes and insider trading of making profits through short-selling. Trump will spend the rest of his life in a prison.


[More than 8 million people participated in over 3,000 "No Kings" protests across the U.S. on March 28th 2026]



2. Trump’s attempt to attack China through the US’s proxy Japan

Therefore, Trump is desperate for his political survival. He wants a political home run that will salvage him from the current disaster.

If Trump succeeds in getting out of the war in the Middle East, he will attempt to start a war in the East Asia to attack China, trying to recover support and popularity of the American people before the midterm elections.

But, the US itself will not attack China. It is US’s proxy Japan that will attack China for the US.


[PM Sanae Takaichi and President Donald Trump]


Under US puppet PM Takaichi, Japan is quickly and steadily preparing for a war against China, seemingly following a scenario and schedule written by the US.

Japan has already deployed extended-range missiles in Kyushu Island, which can hit the coastal area of China. [3]


[On March 9th, Japan hurriedly deployed extended-range missiles to Kumamoto-city of Kyushu Island, Japan that can hit the coastal area of China]




[The distance between Kumamoto-city and Shanghai is less than 1,000 km, which means Shanghai is well within the range of JSDF’s missiles]

In addition to missiles deployed in Kyushu Island, JSDF modified one of 8 Aegis destroyers so that it can launch Tomahawk missiles which can hit Beijing from East China Sea with nuclear warheads. [4]

JSDF is planing to modify all of its 8 Aegis destroyers so that they can launch Tomahawk missiles.


[JSDF’s Aegis destroyer “Chokai” was modified to launch Tomahawk missiles which can be equipped with nuclear warheads]





[Tomahawk missiles have range of 2,000 km. JSDF’s Aegis destroyer can launch Tomahawk missiles from off Okinawa Island to hit Beijing]


All what Japan has to do to complete its preparation for a war against China is procuring from the US or producing by itself nuclear warheads.

Given Japan’s huge stockpile of Plutonium and given its technology, it would take only a few weeks for Japan to get nuke-armed.


[Japan has huge stockpiles of Plutonium]



All these Japan’s military beefing up is being made in the name of “counter-strike capabilities”.

In order to activate and justify its use of “counter-strike capabilities”, Japan will stage a false-flag operations just like it did in Mukden Incident of 1931.

For example, JSDF’s warplanes or warships would mysteriously crash or sink for unknown causes around the area of the Diaoyu Islands or the Taiwan Strait.


[JSDF would carry out false-flag operations]

Then, without any concrete evidence and despite China’s denial, Japan would declare that it should exercise its right of self-defense and attack China, launching extended-range missiles to such cities as Shanghai and Hangzhou and Tomahawk missiles to Beijing.

In case Japan launches extended-range missiles or Tomahawk missiles, the US would deploy its covert operation vessels in the East China Sea disguised as ordinary freight ships that would emit powerful jamming, so as to prevent China’s air defense systems would shoot down Japan’s missiles.


[The US’s covert operation vessel “MV Ocean Trader”]

Given the evil and treacherous nature of Japan, it is likely that Japan will bring into, share or produce nukes either openly or secretly.

If China gives time to Japan, Japan will bring into, share or produce nukes to attack China.



In November 2025, PM Takaichi declared that Japan would put JSDF into Taiwan contingency and get Japan nuke-armed.


[In November 2025, PM Takaichi declared that Japan would put JSDF into Taiwan contingency and get Japan nuke-armed]


[As stipulated in the Instrument of Japanese Surrender, Potsdam Declaration and Cairo Declaration, Taiwan is a part of China. Therefore, putting JSDF into Taiwan contingency constitutes an aggression and war crime]


[Japan will withdraw from NPT and get itself nuke-armed]


[Possible JSDF’s plan map to attack Beijing:
JSDF’s F-15 squadrons would be used as a decoy in the East China Sea while the main attack squadron of JSDF’s F-35s with nukes would fly over Korean Peninsula to make a surprise nuclear attack against Beijing]


[JSDF’s F-35 would attack Beijing with nukes]


[The Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China]





It is likely that Trump already provided to Japan an approval and schedule for Japan to attack China. Knowing that she can attack China, which has been her life-time dream, PM Takaichi danced of great jubilation at White House.


[PM Takaichi visited the US and met with President Trump, March 19th 2026]


[PM Takaichi dancing in White House]



Due to the quagmire of the war in the Middle East, Trump had to postpone his visit to China by one month, which was originally scheduled in April.

When he visits China in May, he will tell President Xi Jinping that Japan is ready to attack China anytime by Trump’s giving the go-ahead.

Using Japan’s missiles as a leverage, Trump will try to intimidate and gain what he wants from China, such as China’s acquiescence of Taiwan independence, of which Trump would be boastful and proclaim as his great achievement or a spoil from China.


China should take actions before Japan obtains nukes. [5]



3. What should be done to prevent a war in the East Asia?

What should be done to prevent a war in the East Asia?

Currently, the US is busily occupied with the war in the Middle East, stretching itself to the limit.

Therefore, basically, as long as the war in the Middle East continues, it would be less likely that the US could embark on another major war in East Asia because the US would not be able to provide sufficient support to Japan’s attack against China.

The US is trying to maintain two carrier strike groups in the Middle East. The US’s amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which were stationed in Japan, have been sent to the Middle East.


[The US maintains two carrier strike groups in the Middle East. The US’s amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in the Middle East]


[USS Tripoli]



Then, how is the prospect of the war in the Middle East? Could the war in the Middle East continue until November despite Trump’s eagerness to end the war?


(1) Iran dictates terms

First of all, Iran can and should raise terms and conditions in its peace talks with the US and Israel.

The longer the war will continue, the weaker the position of Israel and the US will become.

Therefore, time is on the side of Iran. Iran will be able to dictate terms and conditions over the US and Israel.

Reportedly, the US presented 15 points plan to Iran for negotiation of peace, including decommission of Iran’s nuclear reactors and banning offensive ballistic missiles. Iran must have thrown the 15 points into a trash can. [6]


Iran has been insisting that it must be made assured that no attack will be made against Iran ever again. Until such assurance is achieved, Iran will keep attacking.


[Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi]








Thus, Iran can and should tell the US following terms and conditions and say, “Take it or leave it. We will make no compromise.”
(1) removal of all US military bases in the Middle East (2) establishing the Middle East nuclear free zone including Israel (3) forming Arab Islamic Security Alliance including Iran and excluding the US and Israel, and (4) trillions of US dollars of reparations to be paid by the US and Israel to compensate the injuries of people of Gaza, Lebanon and Iran and the destruction of Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.


(2) Iran continues attacks

Secondly, regardless of the progress of peace talks, Iran can keep attacking Israel and the US’s military bases in the Middle East, ignoring the US and Israel’s insufficient counter-proposals.


[Iran’s missile attacks]

Iran can possibly retaliate against the US by promising to reach a peace agreement next week and making a surprise attack the very next day.


(3) The Houthis enters

Thirdly, the Iran-backed Houthis, which has joined attacks against Israel, can intensify and continue attacks. [7]

The Houthis can shutting off Bab el Mandeb strait, which will make it impossible for Saudi Arabia to export its oil via the Red Sea.


[The Houthis’s military spokes person]


[The Strait of Hormuz (upper right) and the Bab el Mandeb Strait (lower left)]


(4) Iran and Hezbollah can start ground invasion against Israel

Fourthly, Iran and Hezbollah can start ground invasion against Israel, marching through Iraq-Jordan or through Iraq-Syria-Lebanon or both.

Israel deployed IDF into southern Lebanon and is trying to occupy there. This indicates not Israel’s strength but its fear that Iran and Hezbollah might launch ground invasion.

If Iran and Hezbollah have sufficient air cover, they would successfully march to invade Israel.


[IRGC and Iran army have one million soldiers combined while IDF has only 200 thousand soldiers]




But, who could possibly provide air cover for Iran and Hezbollah?

On March 26th, Israel struck near Pakistani Ambassador's residence and embassy itself in Tehran to prevent Pakistan’s mediation effort between the US and Iran.

Pakistan issued an unusually sharp warning to Israel.
Pakistan could fight against Israel together with Iran. [8]

Iran and Pakistan entered a mutual security agreement back in 2025. Pakistani Air Force has J-10 fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles, which Pakistan imported from China. J-10 fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles will overwhelm Israel’s obsolete F-16 fighter jets.



[Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif (right)]


[Pakistan’s J-10 fighter jet with PL-15 air-to-air missiles imported from China]


When Iran and Hezbollah start ground invasion against Israel with air cover of Pakistani Air Force, Israel will be in panic and the Netanyahu cabinet will fall.




(5) Iran might withdraw from NPT

Fifthly, using up interceptor missiles, the US or Israel might use nuclear weapons, trying to end the war quickly.

Foreseeing that possibility, Iran announced that it might withdraw from NPT. [9]

This is Iran’s message to the US and Israel that, if the US or Israel attacks Iran with nuclear weapons, Iran will withdraw from NPT and immediately get nuke-armed by procuring nukes from DPRK or quickly enriching Uranium to produce nukes and retaliate.


[Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Fireugn Policy Committee spokes person]

The US or Israel can’t end the war quickly even if it attacks Iran with nuclear weapons.



In these cases mentioned above, the war in the Middle East would continue until November or the end of this year. Oil prices will stay at $200 a barrel until then. The western countries will suffer the worst stagflation.

Republicans will have a historical defeat in the midterm elections. A war in the East Asia would become less likely.



4. The war in the Middle East and China’s oil import

It is said that China imports more than 50% of imported oil from the Middle East. If the war in the Middle East continues until November and if the Strait of Hormuz keeps shut down, it might hamper China’s economic growth.




But, China has a massive petroleum stockpiles, which some analysts estimate to be around 1.2-1.3 billion barrels. That could last up to 100 days.

Also, Iran announced that China’s ships are allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz safely. [10]

The US and Israel are likely not to attack China’s ships, fearing making China actively entering the war on the side of Iran.


[China’s oil tanker]


A question is whether Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and UAE can ship their oil to China through the Strait of Hormuz.

Reportedly, Saudi Arabia and Iraq reduces production of crude oil. [11][12]


[Saudi Arabia and Iraq reduces production of crude oil]


As for Oman and UAE, they can ship oil without sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman can ship oil from Mina Al Fahal on the Gulf of Oman. USE can ship oil from Fujairah located to the east of the Strait of Hormuz. [13][14]


[Oman can ship oil from Mina Al Fahal on the Gulf of Oman. USE can ship oil from Fujairah located to the east of the Strait of Hormuz]


So, based upon publicly available data and information, with her massive oil stockpiles and reduced but steady oil flow from the Middle East, China might endure even if the war on the Middle East continues until November.


[Addendum of March 31st 2026]

On March 31st, China's foreign ministry announced that three of its vessels have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination from relevant parties. [15]



5. Pros and cons of the war continuing until November

Now, as to whether the war in the Middle East would continue until November, downside and upside of the protracted war in the Middle East must be examined.


【Downside】

The Global South suffers due to the shortage of oil, gas and fertilizers etc.

China’s economic growth is slowed


【Upside】

Lasting peace in the Middle East

Less likelihood of another war in East Asia

The US’s hegemony is significantly undermined

Shift from Petrodollar to Petroyuan is accelerated

Taiwan people’s conviction that the US can’t protect them is strengthened


Iran wants to ensure that the US and Israel’s attacks and aggression will never repeated ever again and therefore does not hesitate to keep fighting throughly even for a long time.

On the other hands, China, having a concern on oil supply from the Middle East to China and the Global South, hopes that a ceasefire is achieved and that dialogue would start expeditiously although China supports Iran fundamentally. [16]



So, there is a slight discrepancy of interests between China and Iran.

China and Iran are expected to closely communicate each other so that China and Iran can understand mutual interests and sentiments fully one another and adjust each policies most effectively.


Meanwhile, China has a dilemma over pros and cons of the continuing war in the Middle East. The protracted war in the Middle East would enhance national security and currency of China, but the protracted war in the Middle East could adversely affect China and the Global South’s economy.

China needs to compare and balance pros and cons of the continuing war in the Middle East.

China can expedite (1) a new security arrangement by Arab and Islamic states including Iran that will replace the US led security arrangement and (2) a Middle East nuclear weapon free zone. These arrangements will fulfill Iran’s demands and ensure early peace and stability in the Middle East.


Finally, despite impeachment process being initiated or even because of impeachment process being initiated, President Trump might desperately decide to make its proxy Japan attack China.

Even if the war in the Middle East continues by November, the US might dare to attack China, using the US’s proxy Japan.

China needs to get prepared for every contingency.



6. The war in the Middle East will end after the US’s midterm elections of November 2026

The war in the Middle East will end after the US’s midterm election of November 2026 where Republicans will be terribly defeated, and Democrats will gain the majority both in the Senate and the House. Trump will become a lame duck.


[Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with a joint delegation of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries in Beijing in 2023]

The mediation by China and Arab Islamic nations including Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will ensure all of Iran’s demands will be fulfilled including forming Arab Islamic Security Alliance including Iran and excluding the US and Israel.


Thank you.


References:
(1) ”Trump approval sinks to 36 percent in Reuters/Ipsos poll amid gas price spike, Iran war”, March 24th 2026, The Hill

(2) ”One month in, disapproval high but US lawmakers take no action on Iran war”, March 28th 2026, Al Jazeera

(3) ”Long-range missile equipment sent to GSDF camp in city of Kumamoto”, March 9th 2026, The Japan Times

(4) 「イージス艦にトマホーク発射能力　敵基地攻撃、米で改修後に帰国」, March 20th 2026, Xinhua

(5) ”ANOTHER WAR IS APT TO BREAK OUT IN EAST ASIA”, March 15th 2026

(6) ”Israeli media reveals details of 15-point plan between US, Iran”, March 25th 2026, Anadolu Ajansı

(7) ”Iran-backed Houthis enter the monthlong war and could further threaten global shipping”, March 29th 2026, The Mainichi

(8) ”Pakistan is no Qatar. We will beat hell out of Israel if diplomats are harmed: Pak think tank”, March 27th 2026, WION

(9) ”As war rages, Iranian politicians push for exit from nuclear weapons treaty”, March 28th 2026, Al Jazeera

(10) ”China-owned vessel secures rare Strait of Hormuz transit as Iran war grinds on”, March 25th 2026, South China Morning Post

(11) ”Saudi Arabia to cut April oil flows to China, India as war disrupts exports”, March 26th 2026, Anadolu Ajansı

(12) ”Iraq cuts crude oil production over closure of Strait of Hormuz”, March 4th 2026, Anadolu Ajansı

(13) ”Oman reportedly moves ships from its main oil export terminal outside Strait of Hormuz”, March 12th 2026, The Times of Israel

(14) ”UAE boosts Fujairah oil exports as Hormuz disruption redirects crude flows”, March 27th 2026, World Oil

(15) ”China says three vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz”, March 31st 2026, The Nation Thailand

(16) ”Chinese FM urges efforts to prevent escalation in Mideast conflict”, March 20th 2026, Xinhua


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.