https://shinjukuacc.com/20190217-01/
2019/02/17
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage1
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage2
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage3
More than $ 300 billion on the "final risk base"!
However, the chart called “A5-F”
Only money that has been lent to the home country of Korea is only counted.
For example,
if a US branch of a Japanese bank lends money to a US branch
of a Korean bank, the money will be counted as "loans in the US".
The “ final risk-based credit ” is the result of recalculation
from the perspective of “ where is the ultimate parent company located ”
to eliminate these inconsistencies (Figure 2).
Chart 2 Who lends money to Korea ?
|
Partner country |
Amount of money (one million dollars) |
Percentage |
|---|---|---|
|
USA |
83161 |
27% |
|
United Kingdom |
79324 |
26% |
|
Japan |
58606 |
19% |
|
France |
25919 |
8% |
|
Germany |
16400 |
Five% |
|
Taiwan |
7866 |
3% |
|
Australia |
5688 |
2% |
|
Other |
33202 |
11% |
|
total |
310166 |
100% |
([Source] author created from BIS statistics B4-S.
* Final risk base, as of the end of September 2018 )
In other words,
the money Korea borrows on a “ final risk basis ” is $ 310.2 billion
as of the end of September 2018 .
Among them, the credit from Japan to Korea is less than $ 60 billion,
and I feel that it is less than my previous impression.
In addition,
the amount of borrowing from both the UK and the United States
is more than half of the total,
is this because London and New York are hubs
of international financial markets?
In any case,
it accounts for nearly 70% of loans to Korea in three countries,
the United States and the United Kingdom .
Above,
the facts that become clear from Chart 1 and Chart 2 are
On a branch location basis,
South Korea has borrowed over $ 200 billion in foreign currency.
Eighty percent of it is made up of the US dollar .
On a final risk basis, Korea borrows over $ 300 billion in foreign currency.
Nearly 70% are procured from Japan,
the United States, and the United Kingdom.
about it.
Unforeseen foreign exchange reserves
These BIS statistics are very difficult to read,
such as different bases depending on statistical tables,
but basically they are not “self-reported” bases,
It is based on " reporting from the other country ".
Therefore,
it can be said that it has a high degree of reliability
at least in comparison with the fund circulation statistics prepared
by the Bank of Korea.
Well, if now capital flight is not Korea 's "stock market",
If you hit the " interest rate market ", what will the Korean economy be like?
If Korean banks can not borrow dollar funds in the call market, repo market,
etc., there is a possibility
that some financial institutions will " immediately die ."
However,
if your central bank (in this case, the Bank of Korea)
has sufficient foreign exchange reserves,
it can outperform the immediate crisis if it lends to financial institutions.
Introduced earlier
According
to “final risk-based statistics at the end of September 2018 according
to the BIS report”,
The amount of "claims up to 1 year (claims including and includingoneyear )"
is $ 94.7 billion,
but the extreme story is that if
the Bank of Korea reserves $ 94.7 billion or more
of foreign currency reserves , it will be manageable .
However,
I have long considered
that " the foreign currency reserves in Korea include many things
that are suspicious of their asset nature."
("Please refer to CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal1 etc.),
Is there really enough dollar money in the Bank of Korea?
It may come it may have to found even in the future.
Events that cause economic collapse
(For example,
the United States and Japan over North Korea's nuclear development
against South Korea
Declare the "secondary sanction", etc.)
Naturally,
the Korean economy will be in havoc, and there is a possibility
that economic collapse and stock crash will occur simultaneously.
However,
even if there is no such event, even if foreign investors withdraw funds
from Korea one day and the stock price collapses,
if Korean banks maintain finance from foreign countries, basically,
There is no default and there is a high probability
that no economic collapse will occur.
In other words, “ share cheap ” 」“ economic collapse ”,
"Capital flight from stock market"
does not necessarily mean that Korea's economy has failed.
On the other hand,
even on the same capital flight, the bond market, credit market,
If " capital flight from interest rate market " occurs
(Ie if foreign banks withdraw funds ),
The Korean economy is immediately disrupted .
Also,
although 80% of South Korea's foreign currency funding is denominated
in US dollars,
my estimate is that the ratio of US dollar denominated assets
to foreign currency reserves is less than 50 % ,
When
"capital flight from the interest rate market" occurs,
it is possible that the loan from foreign exchange reserves will not
be in time , and the Korean economy will " immediately die ."
<Inconvenient thing happens> → <The whole stock price of Korea falls>
The pattern is dangerous but
<There is nothing wrong with it>-> <Capital flight happens>
→ <Influence is limited to Korean stock market> → <No problem>
<There is nothing wrong with it>-> <Capital flight happens>
→ <Influence on bond market> → <Immediate death>
Events that cause economic collapse
(For example,
the United States and Japan
over North Korea's nuclear development against South Korea
If, for example, the declaration of the “secondary sanction” is triggered,
the Korean economy naturally falls into havoc, and there is a possibility
that economic collapse and stock collapse will occur simultaneously.
However,
even if there is no such event, even if foreign investors withdraw funds
from Korea one day and the stock price collapses,
if Korean banks maintain finance from foreign countries, basically,
There is no default and there is a high probability
that no economic collapse will occur.
What is the problem in this paper
is not "based on the home currency(Korean won)",
It is " fund short circuit on a foreign currency basis ".
According to BIS statistics chart A5-F, the foreign currency borrowed
by Korea as of the end of September 2018 (on a head office basis)
is $ 211.9 billion, 80 % of which is denominated in US dollars (See Figure 1).
This is exactly why Korea is thirsty
for a “ US dollar denominated ”
Japanese-Korean currency swap agreement .
Because market participants are different in stock market and bond market
(Although it is ※, it partially overlaps ...).
In the world of stocks,
ups and downs of several percents are accustomed on a daily basis,
and in the case of Japan,
the Nikkei average suddenly blows over 1000 yen or more,
and a crash has sometimes occurred.
Also,
looking at the world market, "mini-capital flights"
from stock markets of emerging market (EM)
countries including Korea are quite frequent throughout the year.
But when this happens in the bond market, it's a big deal.
During the financial crisis since September 2008 ,
Korea struggled to raise the US dollar and finally managed
to overcome the crisis by having the currency swap ( BSA )
be enhanced from Japan and the US etc.
Evidence that they need foreign currency, starting with the US dollar
(* Strangely, at that time , foreign exchange reserves
of the Bank of Korea would have had $ 200 billion ...).
If $ 130 billion of available swap space is used as the source of $ 310 billion
in debt repayment, and if it is another $ 120 billion,
it is possible that foreign currency that can be immediately cashed
is only $ 160 billion. Become.
In other words, $ 243 billion, which is $ 403 billion minus $ 160 billion,
It means that it is being operated
in "a form that can not be cashed immediately ".
[Junk bonds? An investment in China with a withdrawal limit? ]
In the case of the currency crisis in 2008 ,
it seems that the US-Korea swap limit is being used at the stage
where the foreign currency holding balance remains $ 200 billion,
so considerable bad debt from that time
[junk bonds? There is a possibility that Korea possess].
The increase in Korea's foreign exchange reserves not only depends
on the trade balance,
but also involves a considerable proportion
of foreign exchange interventions .
In the former US-ROK official interest rate,
considering the interest burden on the currency stable securities issued
in conjunction with foreign exchange intervention,
it is necessary to operate at a higher risk,
as it is a deficit even if invested in US Treasury bonds,
The funds may have turned
into non-cashable non-performing loans on a not- so-large scale.
In addition,
in the past article of this site, it is also stated
that "the currency stability securities are issued in dollars".
It is supposed to be funded for the reverse intervention though
it is supposed to be the issue security (won denomination)
that was originally accompanied by the weakening of the won,
So Korea it means that the hand-held dollar is depleted .
BTS members famous for atomic bomb T-shirts are crazy inside the bus Videos leaked! https://twitter.com/i/status/1062852872176451584
Overseas fans seem to be exactly the same
Suddenly overflowing with compliments of English praise. Creepy…
http://www.ekn.kr/news/article.html?no=398456
https://news.v.daum.net/v/20181106030037589
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181114000854
Dokdo is also doing anti-Japanese act of singing our territory.
The capital flight started
World stock price / Korea KOSPI
Do not move, government intervention,
Trading suspension, circuit breaker activation,
power off of server,
Koria have a proven track record.
Yuzuru Sato
Korea attacks Japan by combining hands with North Korea and China
Propaganda neglect affects the recreation of the comfort women problem,
the activities of Japanese companies around the world
Possibility of losing in the image strategy at the US jury trial.
DiffusionHopeGermanNGOSupportLaosAdoptVillage
DiffusionHopehttps://laos.oxfam.org/
Englisharticles futukiitihoyoujiyo
