https://shinjukuacc.com/20190217-01/
2019/02/17
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage1
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage2
KoreaDecaNotSockCrashButForeignCurrencyShortage3
Causality is important
However,
I do not intend to say "share price is not a problem".
"Foreign investors have sold Korean stocks"
It is hard to think that Korea's economy will collapse,
and it is not the case if there is "some other cause"
that Korea's economy will collapse.
For example,
let us say that the case
“Korea has been designated by the United States as the target country
of a virtual secondary sanction” occurs.
In this case, foreign investors may sell Korean stocks all at once,
and at the same time, the Korean economy may be in danger of failure.
Such a case is
It is a story that
" share depreciation and economic collapse
occur simultaneously based on the same cause, "
It's not
"the economy is going to collapse because it became a stock decline."
Anyway, even if you say "capital flight",
It does not mean that Korea's economy will collapse as a result
of the "capital flight from the stock market."
Funding is important!
What is really scary
is "fleeing money from the interest rate market"
So what is really something to worry about
when a so-called “capital flight” phenomenon occurs?
It is "the withdrawal of money from the interest rate market ".
Newspapers and television tend to report "market"
in a reflective manner as "stock market",
so many people misunderstand it as "stock market" when they hear "market". ,
In fact, " market of financial products " is not only "stock market".
There are " forex market " and " interest market ".
There are many people who have "heard" about the "forex market".
Well, in news programs etc.
It is reported that "the closing price of today's Tokyo foreign exchange market
is trading at $ 110.60 to $ 62. "
The “foreign exchange market” does not necessarily have an “exchange”
like TSE. What has been reported is the market price of the "interbank market".
In addition,
since the number of individuals who are currently engaged
in foreign exchange margin trading (FX) etc. has increased recently,
you may be familiar with terms such as "Wellington time" and "Toronto time". .
There are more minor (and vitally important) markets than the "forex market".
That is the " interest rate market ".
For example,
" bond market " government bonds, municipal bonds, FIPA bonds etc.
Such as ' credit market ' bonds and credit default swaps (CDS).
Such as " swap market " interest rate swaps.
The amount of money to be traded is huge every day,
and repo market and call market etc.
are established in short-term interest rates.
In particular,
in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market,
institutional investors trade in billions to billions of yen in a single transaction.
In the case of short-term interest rates,
It is a world where there are so few unbelievable interests.
thin that the funds of a few billion yen and several hundred billion yen
move short money companies to tens of thousands of yen.
In addition,
the interest rate market for yen and foreign currency
and the foreign exchange market are linked, and currency swap
(CCS instead of * BSA), foreign exchange swap (so-called buy-sell or sell-buy),
and NDF for developing country currency
And other transactions are being conducted.
And "a really scary capital flight " (not stock)
"The risk of not being able to borrow money from abroad ".
In the case of Japan, "the triple backstop"
However, for capital flights from Japan,
It is good to think that it is a probability that "the meteorites fall overhead"
from the sky.
For example,
in the case of Japan, the " money glut" status continues in the country,
This is because institutional investors and the Bank of Japan
are buying limited government bonds as they compete.
If foreign investors leave Japan,
domestic investors will be happy
to buy Japanese government bonds and other yen bonds.
However,
the currency of the Japanese yen , along with the US dollar , the euro ,
the pound sterling, etc., is called " hard currency "
which is widely accepted all over the world,
has a very high degree of circulation ,
and 5% of the global foreign exchange reserves
It is about to be occupied by Japanese yen .
For this reason,
it is hard to think that foreign investors will leave the Japanese market
(And, Japan has more money than it can use up domestically,
so the money of Japanese investors
is flowing out to foreign countries ...).
Furthermore,
Japanese government bonds are issued in the currency
of “ Japanese yen ”, the entire market circulation .
Even if Japanese investors and foreign investors fail to buy,
In the worst case,
the central bank (BOJ) takes over Japanese government bonds
The "forbidden hand" is left
(※ However,
it is necessary to clear the restrictions of Article 5
of the Financial Act to invoke the forbidden hand).
In other words,
Japanese government bonds or bonds in Japan are
Domestic investors
(The enormous financial ability of domestic investors backed
by household assets exceeding ¥ 1800 trillion
( approximately US $ 16 trillion ))
Overseas investors
(the attractiveness of the Japanese yen as the “ safety asset ”
in the world's third largest foreign exchange reserves)
Central Bank
(BoJ can buy yen-denominated bonds without restriction if you like it)
It has the strongest triple backstop .
In fact,
if the statement that "Japan will go down" is true,
it should be strange if interest rates have not jumped up to tens of thousands
of degrees like Zimbabwe and Venezuela,
but in Japan's bond market it would be far from low interest rates,
10 Negative interest rates are normal until the year zone.
In Japan's case,
the most important "domestic investor"
as a backstop in the interest rate market including government bonds
is too strong.
Therefore, Japan is the most unrelated country in capital flight .
(※ If you are claiming that "Japan will go bankrupt", in most cases,
it seems that you have decided to use a dummy
for statistical analysis of cash circulation and negative interest rates at all ...)
Real weakness of the Koreaneconomy
The tragedy of a country thatborrows money
from foreign countriesin foreign currency
However,
this argument applies to only a few countries in the world,
such as Japan and Switzerland.
In Japan, almost no foreign currency borrowing money from foreign countries.
(※ I do not mean not to borrow at all),
In addition, because the power of the Japanese yen is too strong,
it is actually sufficient for Japanese companies
to "exchange" yen for foreign currency when making overseas investments.
There is almost no need to " borrow " foreign currency .
But not all countries in the world are as blessed with Japan,
"A country that has low international currency
of its own currency and borrows money from foreign countries "
In the case of a capital flight , the economy may die immediately .
A typical example is Korea .
In the case of Korea,
the local currency (Korean won) is hardly usable in the international market.
There is such a circumstance, too.
Korean companies borrow money
" from overseas " and " foreign currency ".
An organization called the Bank for International Settlements (BIS),
once a quarter,
We publish statistics such as "international fund transaction statistics" "international credit statistics".
This shows how much private banks etc. borrow from foreign countries.
Unlike the cash circulation statistics, etc.,
this BIS statistics do not provide an exhaustive view
of a single country's funding,
such as foreign direct investment not being tabulated.
However
, it is still a measure of how much money the country's banking sector borrows
from foreign countries
(In addition, commentary is published in the BOJ website for details).
If you look at the chart “Credit and Debt Balance by Bank Location” (A5-F),
you can see that Korea has borrowed $ 211.9 billion in foreign currency
as of the end of September 2018 . (Figure 1).
Chart 1 What currency does a Korean financial institution borrow ?
|
currency |
Amount ($ 1 million) |
ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
U.S. dollar |
164639 |
78% |
|
Euro |
10022 |
Five% |
|
Japanese yen |
4886 |
2% |
|
GBP |
1020 |
0.48% |
|
Swiss franc |
1880 |
1% |
|
Other |
29498 |
14% |
|
Total foreign currency |
211945 |
100% |
([Source] author created from BIS statistics A5-F.
Chart shows the amount of foreign currency procurement
by the private sector as of the end of September 2018 )
Previously,
“The fact that the article CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal1 ,
Korea's foreign debt
is not "about $ 130 billion" announced by the Bank of Korea, but it is actually
I said, "May South Korea's foreign debt may exceed $ 200 billion, "
but the fact that this my hypothesis is correct is justified here.
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Overseas fans seem to be exactly the same
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http://www.ekn.kr/news/article.html?no=398456
https://news.v.daum.net/v/20181106030037589
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181114000854
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The capital flight started
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Do not move, government intervention,
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power off of server,
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DiffusionHopeGermanNGOSupportLaosAdoptVillage
DiffusionHopehttps://laos.oxfam.org/
Englisharticles futukiitihoyoujiyo
