(本文) Hi (nzのファーストネーム), We're giving you more bang for your buck. From 19 May 2014 the interest rates on some of our Saving and Investment accounts are increasing - check out your new rates! Dan
(抄訳) …最初の一文は…～ giving you more bang for your buck って…すごく卑猥な感じがするのはnzだけでしょうか？ (ˆωˆ；) それにしても、銀行からのメッセージとは思えない、このフレンドリーな感じ。 えーっと、「2014年5月19日(今日!)から一部の取扱商品で金利上げちゃうぜー!!詳しくはここを見てね♡ クリック Dan」終わり。
Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Chair Janet Yellen backpedalled slightly on the surprisingly aggressive interest rate outlook posted at the March FOMC meeting, which inferred the first rate hike could happen as early as six months after the asset purchase programme is wound up (slated for December 2014). Speaking at a conference Yellen said that the US economy will need Fed stimulus for “some time” and highlighted the ‘slack’ in the labour market. This was supported by a dismal March quarter GDP figure and while many attribute this to the unseasonably cold weather, the data for the June quarter is pointing to a continued improvement but hardly a runaway economy. The marquee US non-farm payrolls report for April showed strong jobs growth (above expectations) and a large fall in the unemployment rate to 6.3% from 6.7%. Further analysis revealed some weaknesses however, notably a sharp fall in the participation rate. The Chinese economy looks stuck in a flat patch. March quarter GDP slipped to 7.4%, the lowest rate of growth since September 2012, while the PMI reading for April – the first data print for the June quarter – would indicate activity hasn’t rebounded yet. There is little new out of the Eurozone. Unemployment looks to be steadying – printing 11.8% in April for the fourth consecutive month – however inflation remains weak, which will stymy economic growth. There is mounting pressure for the European Central Bank to take action to stimulate inflation at this week’s policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (“RBNZ”) continued to distinguish itself amongst other advanced nations in making its second official cash rate (“OCR”) hike to 3.00% from 2.75%. It largely maintained its hawkish bias, highlighting spare capacity being absorbed and the implications for the inflation outlook (seemingly reading through the softer inflation reading printed for the March quarter. It did however reluctantly acknowledge that the high NZD (anti-inflationary) is becoming a serious consideration and that prolonged strength may start to impact its forecast interest rate track.
Currency Review
The reality of a higher OCR (the RBNZ has cemented two OCR 25 basis point hikes this year and is forecasting another two by year end) is underpinning the NZD. US data indicates a slow and steady recovery, which should only propagate a gradual strengthening of the USD. That said, overlaying this is the unresolved situation in the Ukraine, which is providing some support for the safe-haven currencies, notably the USD, JPY and CHF, and limiting risky currency rallies. The AUD/USD is navigating its way around the high 0.9200 level. A softer than expected March quarter inflation report tempered those calling for a central bank rate hike later this year following the strong December quarter reading. The trimmed mean annual rate is at 2.6% and the weighted mean is at 2.7%, well inside the 3.0% upper limit. The AUD is also being weighed down by continued uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economic outlook. We still struggle to comprehend the strength in the EUR, which incidentally hit a two year high against the USD at the end of the month. The fundamentals might be improving but that doesn’t really say much, when we consider that deflation is still a real risk. The EUR is breaking technical resistance levels, suggesting there is upside risk in the short-term.
Fixed Income – Bond Market Analysis
The benchmark US 10 year Treasury traded in a 2.60% to 2.80% range in April with a downside bias. While the Fed looked past the weak GDP figure, markets were less convinced, and so with little new information from the FOMC, the benchmark 10 year Treasury yield came off a few ticks and is now bouncing along near the bottom of the range. Further pressure on yields is coming from continued tensions in the Ukraine, which is underpinning safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries. There have been some interesting bond issues recently in the Eurozone, which highlights the ‘chase for yield’ (arguably at the expense of considered risk/reward analysis) and the excesses of cash floating in the system. Greece issued EUR2 billion of 5 year bonds at 4.95% and Portugal issued a 10 year bond at 3.57%. To put that in context, New Zealand and Australian 5 year government bonds were 4.26% and 3.43% respectively at the time of the issue. Greece is rated junk status from all three credit rating agencies. The New Zealand yield curve continues to remain under bearish flattening pressure, with the RBNZ’s frontloaded hiking cycle overwhelming a muted long-end performance, held down by US Treasuries. The 2-10 year swap spread is at its lowest level since January 2009. New Zealand 10 year government bonds have continued to rally on a combination of the lowered long-end of the yield curve, as well as strong investor demand – and why wouldn’t there be, when Greece is only offering a 70 basis point premium?!
Auckland Airport completes return of capital 2:35pm, 14 Apr 2014 | GENERAL Auckland Airport has now cancelled one in every ten shares held by its shareholders on 7 April 2014, which was the record date for the return of capital. Fractions of a share were rounded up to the nearest whole share. This has resulted in the cancellation of 132,288,492 shares, reducing the total number of shares issued from 1,322,772,589 to 1,190,484,097. The $454 million return of capital was undertaken by a scheme of arrangement under Part XV of the Companies Act 1993. It was approved by the High Court of New Zealand and by 99.34% of shareholders voting at a special meeting on 12 February 2014. Auckland Airport shares have been trading on an 'ex return of capital' basis on the Australian Stock Exchange since 1 April 2014, and on the New Zealand Stock Exchange since 3 April 2014. Auckland Airport will today pay NZ$3.43 for each share cancelled. Australian shareholders will receive approximately AU$3.183 for each share cancelled (based on the NZD/AUD exchange rate of $0.928).
(以下ざっくりな口語訳by nz)
「オークランド空港はキャピタルの返還を完了した」 2014年4月14日午後2時35分 オークランド空港は2014年4月7日基準の株主名簿に基づいて、同社株式10株に対し1株をキャンセルしました。4月7日というのが、このキャピタルの返還の基準日とされていました。 端数はラウンド・アップ(切り上げ)となりました。このキャンセレーションによって132,288,492株がキャンセルされ、発行済み株式数は、1,322,772,589株から1,190,484,097株となりました。 The Companies Act 1993(訳注：NZの会社法)の第XV条に基づくScheme of Arrangementが適用され、454百万ドルがReturn of Capitalとして返還されました。 これはニュージーランドの最高裁判所で承認され、2014年2月12日の特別総会で99.34%の株主により賛成を得ました。 同社株式は2014年4月1日以来「Ex return of capital」ベースで、オーストラリア証券取引所では取引されてきました。NZ証券取引所では同4月3日より。 同社は本日一株当たり3.43NZドルを返還する予定です。オーストラリアの株主は同様におよそ3.183豪ドルを受け取るでしょう(NZドル/豪ドル0.928ドルベースで換算)
