BirthPro-USpresidentS-KoreaLeavingUSobeyChina2

「親米大統領」誕生でも韓国は「離米(Leaving US 미국을 떠나)従中(obey China 순종하다 중국)」　

李朝末期にどんどん似てきた

Even with the birth of "Pro-US President", South Korea is "Leaving US 미국 을 떠나" (obey China 순종 하다 중국)
It became more and more similar to the end of the Joseon Dynasty

https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2022/03100624/?all=1

鈴置高史（스즈 오키 타카 부미,Takabu-mi Suzu-oki）　Reading the Peninsula March 10, 2022

(Takabumi Suzuoki's blog article)

BirthPro-USpresidentS-KoreaLeavingUSobeyChina1

「親米大統領」誕生でも韓国は「離米従中」

「親米大統領」誕生でも韓国は「離米従中」2

● The end of successive South Korean presidents (1205 revision).

① 李承晩（SyngmanRhee,이승만） (July 1948-April 1960)	He was criticized for fraudulent elections (resign from one's public post) and went into exile in Hawaii. Police fired at demonstration requesting resignation, killing 183 people nationwide
②尹潽善（Yun Posun,윤보선） (August 1960-March 1962)	Retirement, resign from one's public post protesting the seizure of power by a military coup. He was the president of the parliamentary system and had no real power.
③ 朴正煕（Park Chung-hee,박정희）(December 1963-October 1979)	Assassinated by KCIA director of trusted retainer. In 1974, a Korean resident in Japan 在日（Zainichi Korean）shot him with a pistol, killing his wife, Mrs. 陸英修（Yuk Young-soo,육영수）.
④ 崔圭夏（Che gyuha Kyu-ha, 최규하） (December 1979-August 1980)	Following the assassination of President Park, he became president from the prime minister through acting presidential authority. Resigned due to military control
⑤全斗煥（Chun Doo-hwan,전두환） (September 1980-February 1988)	After retiring, he was pursued for the injustice of his relatives and lived in seclusion. Responsible for the 光州事件(Gwangju Uprising,광주 사건) in retroactive legislation and sentenced to death (later amnesty)
⑥ 盧泰愚（No Tae-woo,노태우） (February 1988-February 1993)	After retiring, he was sentenced to imprisonment with imprisonment with Mr. Chun Doo-hwan (전두환) for the Gwangju Uprising under the retroactive legislation (later amnesty).
⑦金泳三（Kim Young-sam,김영삼）(February 1993-February 1998)	The second son was arrested in 1997 and sentenced to two years in prison. The charges involved fraudulent lending to the 韓宝(Hanbo,한보 그룹) group that caused the currency crisis
⑧金大中（Kim Tae-jung,김대중） (February 1998-February 2003)	All three sons arrested for mediation bribery at the end of their term
⑨ 盧武鉉（Roh Moo-hyun,노무현） (February 2003-February 2008)	After retiring, his brother was arrested for bribery. He also heard from the prosecution in April 2009 on suspicion of bribery. Suicide in May of the same year
⑩ 李明博（Lee Myung-bak,이명박）(February 2008-February 2013)	Arrested in March 2018 for bribery, back office, and abuse of authority. On October 29, 2020, the Supreme Court sentenced him to 17 years in prison, a fine of 13 billion won (about 1,257,570,000 yen, about US $ 11.57 million) and a surcharge of 5,780,000 won. His brother, who also served as the chairman of the Korea-Japan Parliamentary League, was arrested for mediation and bribery, and was sentenced to two years in prison.
⑪朴槿恵（Park Geun-hye,박근혜） (February 2013-March 2017)	On March 10, 2017, he was sentenced to impeachment trial. March 31, 2017 Arrested for bribery, abuse of authority, etc. On January 14, 2021, a final trial sentenced him to 22 years in prison, a fine of 18 billion won (about 1,743.14 million yen, about US $ 16.04 million), and a surcharge of 3.5 billion won. Amnesty before dawn on December 31, 2021

[Figure] The end of successive presidents of South Korea

Can you put an end to retaliatory politics? .

Diplomacy is not the only problem facing President-elect Yoon Seok-you.
The biggest issue in domestic politics is whether to put an end to retaliatory politics.
In South Korea, it has become standard to send the president of the previous administration to a prison.

As usual, Mr. Moon Jae-in and his aides are likely to be tried.

On February 7, Yoon Seok-you was asked in an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, "If I take control, will I be investigating to liquidate the deep-rooted evil (적폐 積弊) of the previous administration?" It must be done. It must be done. "
On February 15, the Liberal Democratic Party, a conservative political party that does not have a seat in the Diet, posted an advertisement in the [JoongAng Ilbo 中央日報のインタビュー ] .

He listed the "criminals" of President Moon Jae-in during his tenure and declared that "these hostile acts deserve the death penalty."
It is also a cloud bound with the addition of a new practice of "going to jail if you lose the presidential election."
Both the elected Yoon Seok-you camp and the defeated Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung's camp have announced that they will bring their opponents to trial when they become president.

The conflict between these strange candidates is not solely due to the grudges between the individuals.
Under the Moon Jae-in Government, in addition to the president, bureaucrats, judges, and military personnel appointed by the conservative government were tried and imprisoned. Many former high-ranking officials committed suicide.

李在明：イ・ジェミョン(이재명, Lee Jae-myung)

The left wing is desperate and resists.

楊相勲, ヤン・サンフン(양상훈 Yang Sanghun)

Chosun Ilbo, Yang Sang-hoon's chief author, 「 The hidden reason behind 'Red debt Revenge of Redemption' 100 years in prison懲役合計100年　『積弊士禍』の陰の理由 징역 합계 100년‘적폐 士禍’의 숨은 이유 」(March 22, 2018, Korean version), 110 bureaucrats from the conservative government era were in the stage of March 2018, less than a year after the Moon Jae-in administration began. Indicted, less than 60 people were detained.
Eleven people were imprisoned at the secretary / vice minister level alone.

For President Moon Jae-in, it was a mourning battle for former President Roh Moo-hyun, who was his ally.
After becoming the Lee Myung-bak administration, Roh Moo-hyun, who had just retired, was forced to commit suicide after being investigated by the prosecution.
The retaliation battle between the conservatives and the left is only intensifying.

On January 22, Lee Jae-myung said in a speech, "If you lose, you will go to jail for innocent charges."
It was a time when polls made some unfavorable predictions, so he either tried to collect sympathy votes, or he was considered prepared.

As Yoon Seok-you came to power, neither the Moon Jae-in faction nor the Lee Jae-myung faction went to jail, so they would go crazy and resist.
The Democratic Party of Korea, which will be the first opposition party, has secured a majority of 172 seats out of 300 seats in the Diet (vacancy 5 seats).
The bill can be rejected, and impeachment of the president can be resolved by consolidating left-wing independent members and securing 60% of the seats.

In South Korea, there are voices lamenting, "The situation is just before the civil war. The country will be destroyed again due to the intensification of the left-right conflict."
"Again" is in the mind of Joseon, who died after a party struggle-a fierce internal struggle among leaders.

Changes in the proportion of older people in the G20

Decline due to population decline.

In terms of economy, South Korea has faced a crisis. Economic decline due to population decline has become a reality.
The population peaked in 2020, and the working-age population (15-64 years old), which is the core of workers, peaked out in 2018.
The Ministry of Employment and Labor in South Korea predicts that the total number of people who are actually working and those who are willing to work but have no job will reach its peak in 2023.

The serious population problem in South Korea is that the rate of aging is unusually fast.
According to the 「 Fiscal Challenges and Inclusive Growth in Ageing Societies, OECD Economic Policy Paper 」 (September 2019), the ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged 20-64 will be 88.68% in South Korea in 2060. To reach.
(See chart “Changes in the proportion of elderly people in the G20” on page 10)

1st place in the G20, higher than Japan's 79.90%.
As of 2015, South Korea accounted for 19.11% and Japan accounted for 47.55%, which shows how fast South Korea is aging.
By the way, Japan's working-age population reached its peak in 1995.
It took 20 years to reduce by 10%. South Korea is projected to decline by 10% in 10 years from its peak in 2018.

The cause is, of course, the low fertility rate. Especially under the Moon Jae-in administration, the decline was remarkable.
The total fertility rate dropped from 1.05 in 2017 to 0.81 in 2021, just four years later.
The Moon Jae-in administration was not only entrusted with national affairs during the peak out of the population.
He became a government that also left behind the future population stigma.

Li Dynasty, who died in a party dispute.

In January 2022, there were signs of a collapse in the Korean real estate bubble.

（ SignsOfCollapseS-KoreanBubbleRealEstateDrop1

한국 거품경제에 붕괴의 조짐 부동산이 일제히 가격하락

韓国バブルに崩壊の兆し　不動産が一斉に値下がり

「 Signs of collapse in the Korean bubble. Even if real estate prices drop all at once, the people are still okay韓国バブルに崩壊の兆し　不動産が一斉に値下がりも国民は『まだ大丈夫』」）

In South Korea, condominiums are the target of speculation.
Condominium prices, which had been soaring for two years, fell slightly in the fifth week of January 2022.
After that, it continues to decline until the first week of March.

It seems that short-term factors such as hot money outflow due to rising interest rates are not the only cause.
There is a high possibility of long-term factors such as a decrease in the working-age population, who are the actual consumers of real estate.
Even in Japan, the bubble burst around 1990, when the ratio of the working-age population to the total population peaked out.

The “shrinkage” of the Korean economy will have a great negative impact on domestic affairs.
Until now, it was possible to calm the people regardless of whether the government was on the left or right.
However, this is not the case if the economy shrinks. The focus will be on the distribution policy of how to separate the smaller pies.

Distribution is basically the work of picking up the assets of those who have them and giving them to those who do not.
Can South Korean politics, which has fallen into fierce conflict, create an extremely difficult social consensus?

At the end of the Joseon Dynasty, a party dispute broke out inside the dynasty where economic power declined.
Against the background of strong military power, Western countries aiming to invade Asia rushed there.
Li Dynasty did not have the power to protect himself, and the internal conflict intensified depending on which country he relied on.
The dynasty, which lasted 519 years, disappeared in the turmoil caused by headwinds from the three sides of economy, domestic affairs, and diplomacy, and the Korean Peninsula fell into a Japanese colony.

Even now, the economic decline of the Republic of Korea has begun, and the domestic affairs are confused.
The course of diplomacy is also undecided.
Some Koreans are heartbroken when the end of Lee Dynasty 120 years ago is reproduced.
Some of them are thinking of leaving the country.

鈴置高史（스즈 오키 타카 부미,Takabu-mi Suzu-oki） d.

Korean observer.
Born in Aichi(愛知) prefecture in 1954 (Showa昭和 29).
Graduated from Waseda(早稲田) University Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
He has served as a correspondent in Seoul and Hong Kong, and a director of the economic commentary department at Nikkei Inc.
He was a researcher at the Harvard Institute for International Affairs from 1995 to 1996 and a Jefferson Program Fellow at the East-West Center (Hawaii) in 2006.
He left the company in March 2018.
His books include 『The Disappearance of the US-Korea Alliance 米韓同盟消滅』(Shinsho Shinsho) and the near-future novel『朝鮮半島201Z年Korean Peninsula 201Z』 (Nikkei 日本経済 Publishing).
Received the 2002 Bourne-Ueda(ボーン・上田) Memorial International Press Award.