https://business.nikkei.com/atcl/seminar/19/00122/00006/
February 20 , 2019 Ueno Yasuya Mizuho Securities Chief M Economist
Is the Chinese economy really all right?2
Is the Chinese economy really all right?
As there was a
"banking" that continued to grow at a high level in the first half of the year,
the economic growth target of "around 6.5% " of 18 years was achieved,
and it was + 6.6 % YoY.
However,
in the October-December quarter of 2006 , it was only 6.4 % YoY.
The 19- year growth target announced in March of this year's NPC
(National People's Congress)
will probably be reduced to " 6.0 to 6.5 %."
Under these circumstances,
the decline in the Baltic Dry Index (abbreviated as BDI ),
which indicates the trend of freight rates for iron ore, coal,
grain and other foreign vessels, has recently been marked <Figure 3>.
■ Figure 3: Baltic Shipping Index ( BDI )
(Source) Baltic Shipping Exchange January 4, 85 = 100
The BDI dropped sharply to 852 January 28
(down 53 points from the previous day).
On the 29th , the score fell below 800 to 797 (down 55 points).
It reached 668 (-53 points) on 31st ,
but this is the level since August 11 , 16th .
The rate of decline in January is about 47 %, the size since January 14th .
It was on a downtrend even after entering 2 and fell
to less than 600 by 5 days to 595 .
Demand for purchasing resources by China,
which used to be "hyperbating" before,
is the main reason for stagnating while the economic slowdown continues .
In addition, the collapse of a mining dam owned
by a major Brazilian resource company has reduced the export of iron ore
from China to China, which is affecting the Cape size supply and demand.
Real GDP in 2019 is in the low + 6 % range
China's leadership is putting in place a stimulus package
that will bring total tax cuts and infrastructure improvements
to over 2.5 trillion yuan
(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, published on January 29 ).
However,
since the transmission mechanism is difficult to operate,
monetary easing is not effective,
and there is also a point that bold
economic stimulus measures will be developed
in the balance with the excess debt problem .
Comment from a Chinese government economist in the above article
“Anyway, the growth rate does not fall below 6 %” is a de facto goal,
and China's real GDP in 19 years is likely to be secured
in the lower 6 % range from the previous year.
However,
it must be kept in mind that it is an artificial support for the economy ,
and that it is a postponement of necessary structural reforms
from a medium- to long-term perspective.
In addition,
President Trump of the United States has fallen into a slump as stock prices fell,
with a sense of alert to further intensification of the US-China trade war .
Therefore,
there is a possibility of compromising on the trade issue
with China to avoid raising the reprisal duty rate. In fact,
if it does, the Chinese economy can only live for the moment.
However,
It think that there is something that can be said to be the fate of history
in the confrontation of the two superpowers
of the United States and China .
It is highly likely that the two countries
will continue their struggle for high-tech supremacy
and military territory in the future .
Under these circumstances, as mentioned at the outset, China,
which has not made use of “Japan's lessons,” is looking
forward to the combination of government debt accumulation
and low growth, the population control measures taken late,
and maintenance costs for low productivity infrastructure
You will have a hard time.
While China's unreasonable economic growth is said to collapse over time,
it will not collapse on the inside.
Inside China, unlike the Japanese bubble, it is managed properly,
so we are confident that there will be no bubble collapse.
But I do not think so. I can't see how the skyscrapers
that are only ghost towns, the construction of high-speed railways,
the lax investment of the whole area, etc. can be continued as such .
It is because the irresponsible state management
of the communist party dictatorship can do such a thing.
It is a question how long can we control information?
Wealthy urban dwellers in Beijing-Shanghai will not believe
what the Communist Party says.
I believe only in low-wage workers in ignorant rural family register.
The United States is hoping that the Chinese people's own values will change.
Of course, China alone will not change easily, but it will change little by little.
And one day the communist dictatorship will end .
Recommendation 382 Opposite 53
I think it's difficult to avoid the bubble as human beings are full
The impact on the world should be great
if it goes far beyond the Japanese bubble.
Recommendation 228 Opposite 10
I am worried about the fiscal deficit more than recession.
Is primary balance okay?
Since the Lehman shock, he has been working on fiscal spending.
Today, it is not only revitalizing the economy but also diplomacy .
In addition , most of the local government is in debt .
Is it all right?
If you look at ghost towns called Onijo,
which are often found in various places, I think it is probably the case.
If it is a fiscal deficit , austerity will be difficult in China .
If tax increases or recession occurs,
criticism will be concentrated on the Communist Party of China .
The Communist Party executives are likely
to do such a suicide act even if dead.
Recommendation 207 Opposite 10
Still it is a 6% growth rate
And there are 1.4 billion people
It would be more meaningful to think of Japan,
which was revised downward to 0.8% growth rate
I would like you to write more detailed information
on improvement points in Japan
The atmosphere does not get brighter
if only negative information is played through domestic information
I am troubled with the content that floats,
but I want to know the analysis for economic recovery
Recommendation 85 Opposite 8
It is better to worry about Japan before you worry about China
Recommendation 68 Opposite 7
First of all, let's change the dark mood in Japan.
Let young people have hope in the future.
Reduce the burden of taking care of the elderly
and let the young people understand it.
It is also effective to increase the inheritance tax significantly.
It will alleviate the inequity among young people greatly.
It will be considerable tax revenue.
It can be used to educate poor young people.
Young people can have some hope.
LDP.
Recommendation 55 Opposite 49
Now how is it?
First of all, because people make society, economy and country, first of all,
from around.
Recommendation 37 Opposite 5
Nikkei would be more meaningful to study Japan, which is less than 1 %,
than China, which has a 6 % growth rate.
The reason why Japan does not improve
for 30 years can not be determined after 30 years,
but Nikkei's research ability does not qualify China's economy for research,
and of course its credibility can not be trusted.
Recommendation 36 Opposite 1
In the case of a debt-based development ,
the debt will weigh heavily when it can not be expanded .
Recommendation 24 Opposite 1
Analysis of Japan by example.
It is because the fall of this level is simply due to the decrease in population
It is strange that the monetary easing is bad.
What happened if you did not ease it? ?
It's no longer gag.
I think I will deal properly with China
If you think, Japan was a stranger, and was it so funny to America?
As long as you hate such a disastrous yen appreciation,
you can do sanctions and do anything
Good luck.
Too stupid
Recommendation 24 Opposite 5
BTS members famous for atomic bomb T-shirts are crazy inside the bus Videos leaked! https://twitter.com/i/status/1062852872176451584
Overseas fans seem to be exactly the same
Suddenly overflowing with compliments of English praise. Creepy…
http://www.ekn.kr/news/article.html?no=398456
https://news.v.daum.net/v/20181106030037589
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181114000854
Dokdo is also doing anti-Japanese act of singing our territory.
The capital flight started
World stock price / Korea KOSPI
Do not move, government intervention,
Trading suspension, circuit breaker activation,
power off of server,
Koria have a proven track record.
Yuzuru Sato
Korea attacks Japan by combining hands with North Korea and China
Propaganda neglect affects the recreation of the comfort women problem,
the activities of Japanese companies around the world
Possibility of losing in the image strategy at the US jury trial.
DiffusionHopeGermanNGOSupportLaosAdoptVillage
DiffusionHopehttps://laos.oxfam.org/
Englisharticles futukiitihoyoujiyo
