ttp: //linkis.com/www.news-us.jp/artic/8 KIZU
한국 경제가 20 년 전의 외환 위기에 빠질 세 가지 이유
KoreaEconomyFalls3reasonsForCurrencyCrisis20ago
Although it is a central daily report
with only a tone that It usually don't understand,
It sometimes write unusually good columns .
It is said that a former economic bureaucrat sent anonymous contributions.
The Korean economy is pointing out that it has some commonalities
as it is just like and worrying during the Asian currency crisis .
The difference with 20 years ago is that there is no atmosphere
that Japan can help .
Koreaneconomy that listens to the very bell
1. October 29, 1998,
Nomura Securities Seoul Branch issued a famous report .
The title is " Daewoo Group is ringing very bell ."
The power of the four-page report was great .
Reports of similar content came out flooded in and out.
Less than 10 months later ,
Daewoo, ranked 2nd among the 5 major conglomerates, collapsed .
Oishi's myth without death also collapsed.
April 26, 2019 .
Nomura Securities issued another report .
Korea's growth forecast this year was lowered from 2.4% to 1.8% .
Nomura Securities is the first to expect Korea's growth rate
to be in the 1% range.
Just after waiting, the ING group issued a report similar to 1.5%
and capital economics at 1.8% .
ING Robert Kernel Chief Economist
" Economic growth slows further in the April-June period,
which may result in a technical economic downturn. "
2. It do not want to believe, but the signs are unusual .
In particular, it is a problem that only the Korean economy is set back .
Nevertheless, the Korean government simply says,
"Because of the foreign economic environment ."
Furthermore, it expells even the groundless optimism .
"There is no plan to revise the growth rate target, " said Hong Nam-gi,
the deputy prime minister of the economy.
However,
not only the government but also the president repeat
only the words "the fundamentals are solid. "
The 20-year-old currency crisis began with the unfounded confidence
that the deputy prime minister at that time "the fundamentals are solid. "
The Korean economy, which is not a key currency country,
will be shaken by external pressure whenever its relationship
with the United States and Japan,
which are key currency alliances, is distorted .
The relationship with the United States and Japan was messed up
as it is now 20 years before the currency crisis .
3. The crisis approaches when it denies the crisis theory .
The president himself denies the crisis as " no basis ".
Instead of structural reforms, we will only stick to enduring in finance .
Hard labor unions
are going through labor disputes rather than concessions .
Companies are rushing to move out of the country instead of investing .
The Nomura Report of 2019 will not be over until it is a disaster
and it will not be over .
First , Nomura Securities lowered its growth rate forecast .
Financial institutions around the world have begun to lower growth forecasts.
ING Group is a Dutch financial institution,
Capital Economics is a UK financial institution
The Korean government and the Korean media,
who had denied anything from that Japanese side,
have not criticized Nomura for 1 mm .
Is that Nomura Securities from Japanese companies in Japan?
If Japanese companies are the leaders in the world to reduce
the growth rate of Korea, the patriotism of Koreans should be over.
how is that?
President Moon does not touch at all .
In other words, It am seriously afraid .
Everyone realized that Nomura's warning
was as serious as a 20- year-old warning .
No matter how much the Japanese government responds to the talks
and says that the international law is to be protected, no matter what,
the warnings on Nomura Securities are all taken seriously
by everyone and they are strengthening their vigilance.
Second : The relationship between Japan
and the United States gets worse .
The second reason is
that the relationship with Japan and the United States
was as bad as it was 20 years ago .
The US dollar is the key currency ,
and the Japanese yen is both important as a semi-base currency .
The president at that time was a person named Kim Seung-san.
The term is from 1993 to 1998 .
It am looking at the Internet encyclopedia,
but this president seems
to have built a berth facility on Takeshima for the first time .
During a meeting with China, he made remarks to despise Japan
He also spoke of the words, "Japan will be disciplined to Korea ".
Is the direction as close to Li Myung?
That's why the relationship
with Japan became the worst and the currency crisis became
Japan helped Korea to the end despite the fact that it was countered
by Korea .
Through the framework of the IMF .
The IMF put tough orders on the Korean economy,
otherwise Korea would have been in a state of Venezuelan collapse.
Third : The Korean government does not try to recognize
the crisis .
The third point is that
the Korean government does not recognize
the economic crisis, saying that “the fundamentals are solid ,”
as it was 20 years ago.
Unfounded self-confidence leads to a currency crisis.
Anyway, is the Korean economy in a bad situation?
What does it mean that fundamentals are solid?
Specifically, it seems to indicate that the foreign exchange reserves,
the ratio of national debt and external debt,
and foreign assets etc. are showing good figures in the trade surplus.
However,
foreign exchange reserves are said to be only junk bonds whose contents
are not liquid, and there is a strong suspicion
that they are pushing national debt to private companies
such as Korea Electric Power .
Although it is a trade surplus, there is a risk
of falling into the current account deficit in April .
The large number of foreign assets can also be seen
as the number of companies leaving the country .
The situation where everything can not be relieved
It think that it happened
because It kept ignoring it even though there were several signs of crisis.
The time of the Lehman shock was right.
Unlike in those days, the IMF doesn't help either .
MovNationalDayProbabilityDidBanKoreaTryStopIMF?1
The IMF is not an international organization for all of the world .
The IMF conducted through the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement
The G7 countries , including the United States,
will lead decision making .
US IMF share is highest at 17.4 %,
Japan / China ( 6.4 % each), Germany ( 5.6 %),
United Kingdom / France ( 4.2 % each),
The share of Russia ( 2.7 %) is also high.
These countries will be the creditors of the countries to
which the IMF provides relief financing.
Always give an opinion on where and how to spend your money.
Japan led the major creditor countries
in the relief of Southeast Asian countries .
Finally,
we summarize three reasons why Korea falls
into the same currency crisis as 20 years ago .
The first is the Nomura Securities Warning ,
The second is the deterioration of relations with the United States ,
The third is the Korean government's easy optimism .
The big difference with 20 years ago is
The United States , other countries , and Japan will not help anymore .
So there is nothing wrong with Japan,
and it doesn't matter if it comes to Korea .
The reason why financial institutions all over the world have tightened
their views on Korea is that the Japanese company Nomura Securities,
who always helped me, has released a warning report
to the world as if it would leave Korea alone.
It is thought that Japan is like a parent
who takes care of Korea all over the world.
If you forsake even in Japan, there is no need to hold back.
From now on,
the Korean economy will fall into a tremendous negative spiral .
When Heisei is over, Korea is over .
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DiffusionHopeGermanNGOSupportLaosAdoptVillage
DiffusionHopehttps://laos.oxfam.org/
Englisharticles futukiitihoyoujiyo
