The Korean economy that listens to the very bell
https://japanese.joins.com/article/973/252973.html?servcode=100§code=120&cloc=jp|main|opinion
May 02, 2019 [Central Japan Daily Japanese Edition]
Lee Jung Jae / Central Daily Journal Columnist
Former economic bureaucrat K sent a sentence.
There is a great deal of concern about the country's economy,
but It would like to say
that It would like to post sentences under my real name .
It wanted to introduce only the content of my own sentences.
During the financial crisis,
he served at Cheong Wa Dae under the administration of Kim Young-sam.
During the administration of Kim Tae-jung ( Kim Tae-jung),
he was in charge of structural adjustment and zaibatsu reform
to meet the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It is from that time that he is good at smelling the crisis.
K said that Now the smell of a tough crisis is awkward .
Not only K,
It have heard similar stories from many former economic bureaucrats,
incumbent economic bureaucrats and entrepreneurs .
From another point of view,
the K sentence is not a food-intoxicating theme not to me.
But It summarize his sentence and convey it.
This is the only thing It can do until It am able to open the eyes
of the government without having an ear,
but not with an eye but with an eye.
1. On October 29, 1998,
the Nomura Securities Seoul branch issued a famous report.
The title is " Daewoo Group is ringing very bell ."
The power of the four-page report was great.
Reports of similar content came out flooded in and out.
Less than 10 months later, Daewoo,
ranked 2nd among the 5 major conglomerates, collapsed .
Oishi's myth without death also collapsed.
April 26, 2019.
Nomura Securities issued another report.
Korea's growth forecast this year was lowered from 2.4% to 1.8% .
Nomura Securities is the first to expect Korea's growth rate
to be in the 1% range.
Just after waiting, the ING group issued a report similar
to 1.5% and capital economics at 1.8% .
ING Robert Kernel Chief Economist
He warned that economic growth could slow further
in the April-June quarter, resulting in a technical recession .
Nomura Securities' report this time could be a very bell too.
It is not the Daewoo but the Korean economy this time .
2. I do not want to believe, but the signs are unusual .
In particular, it is a problem that only the Korean economy is set back.
The United States recorded a 3.2% annual surprise growth.
China surpassed the expectation that it will stay in the 5% range,
and grew 6.4% in the January-March quarter.
Nevertheless,
the Korean government simply says,
"Because of the foreign economic environment ."
Furthermore, it expells even the groundless optimism .
Hong Nam-gi, Deputy Prime Minister
"There is no plan to revise growth rate targets, " he said.
The Korean government's target value is 2.6 to 2.7 percent.
If this is to be possible,
it will have to grow by more than 1% each
from the previous quarter in the remaining three quarters,
which is practically impossible.
Still not only the government but also the president
Only the words "the fundamentals are solid " are repeated.
The currency crisis 20 years ago was also
It started with the unfounded confidence that the fundamentals are solid .
The Korean government and the Bank of Korea set a reserve
of over $ 400 billion in foreign exchange reserves,
a short-term foreign debt ratio below 30%, foreign assets far above debt,
foreign investors who gather in Korean government bonds are clearly good indicators,
but Korea It is not a universal shield that heals or prevents the economic crisis.
The Korean economy,
which is not a key currency country,
will be shaken by external pressure whenever its relationship
with the United States and Japan ,
which are key currency alliances, is distorted .
Twenty years before the currency crisis
The relationship with the United States and Japan was messed up
as it is now.
3. The crisis approaches when it denies the crisis theory .
The crisis theory is the best recipe to prevent the crisis.
The report of Nomura Securities in 1998 turned out to be a disaster.
Daewoo died but the Korean economy could live .
The government, companies,
workers and the public are all aware
of the crisis and have begun to overcome it.
Companies worked hard to help themselves,
and workers accepted up to the job.
The government hastened structural reforms.
How is it now?
There is no solution to overcome low growth.
From the beginning, it seems that the blue-collar tower
( Cheong DaeWa ) and the government are not interested .
The president denies the crisis as " no basis ".
Instead of structural reforms, we will only stick to enduring in finance .
The take a firm attitude labor union uncompromised or even unfolding tyranny.
Companies are rushing to move out of the country instead of investing.
The Nomura Report of 2019 will not be over
until it is a disaster and it will not be over .
Are you just heading for the future you want ?
What differs from the previous financial crisis is
that Japan does not support it.
It would have been nice to learn
from the Greek crisis that support for self-employed would be lost .
Recommendation 337 opposite 3
The fundamentals are solid and there is no immediate crisis.
Once again diplomacy is a perfect score,
and President Moon is a great policy maker.
Please do not hesitate to lead the people to a bright future.
Recommendation 303 Opposite 2
Have you guys overcame something in the past ?
Korea just recovered with the money of another person, another country .
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black , always attacking others,
and if you are in trouble you will not change the national character
of relying solely on people's money ,
and the future will not change It will be.
Such a country, no one should help.
Recommendation 280 Opposite 0
While concerned
Come on Korea does not have to correct
your attitude towards Japan and achieve your heart growth?
Recommendation 97 Opposite 0
It 's okay because there is still room to fall .
Recommendation 96 Opposite 0
It's best not to be concerned
If Japan spend money, Japan should invest in a country
or a country that Japan should be more familiar with
Recommendation 85 Opposite 0
I'm so worried.
I think that the genius of diplomacy will do something,
so I think it would be nice if you felt like you got on a mudboat.
Recommendation 74 Opposite 0
There is already downhill in Korea.
Don't teach, don't help, don't get involved .
Let's protect these three principles.
Recommendation 70 Opposite 0
I could do it, or I wanted it myself.
I wanted to work on my own, I wanted to be proud of that power,
I understand.
But it is impossible for you guys.
It will be difficult from now on because no one will help Korea.
Well do your best.
Recommendation 66 Opposite 0
I want you to follow your path so that many Japanese people are not involved.
Not a few Japanese people will have flower heads,
but I hope that many hope to break the relationship.
Recommendation 62 Opposite 0
BTS members famous for atomic bomb T-shirts
are crazy inside the bus
Videos leaked!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1062852872176451584
Overseas fans seem to be exactly the same
Suddenly overflowing with compliments of English praise. Creepy…
