Korea frightened by Japan-US China retaliation
2019/06/09 Chosun Ilbo
Yoon Dok-min Professor, Korea Foreign Language University Sekiza,
former Director of the National Diplomatic Office
Korea is in a state of Korea stood alone
with no one on my side at home and abroad.
The outlook for the world's assessment agencies
on the Korean economy last year was around 3%.
However, it has fallen to the 2% level this year,
and it has been projected to reach the 1% level after the first quarter
(January to March).
Korea's economic growth rate in the first quarter is -0.3% .
It is minus 1.2% when it converts in annual rate
which is the growth rate statistical method of the United States .
The investment is minus 10.8%, and exports are decreasing sharply .
Both the same index (consistent index) indicating the current economic trend
and the leading index indicating the future economic trend have fallen
for more than 10 months continuously .
This is the first time since statistics began in 1970.
However,
the ROK government is carrying out experiments
on radical left economic programs with no success
in the world's tenth solid free market economy, with far-reaching optimism,
rather than economic recovery and economic recovery.
"The economy will soon be up."
The basic effect is that consumption declines
with “ not getting a reply ” even after two years ,
the market collapses,
and the gap between rich and poor advances rapidly .
How is the situation abroad?
How is the situation abroad?
Even if the economy is in a severe condition,
what have you made wrong from all directions
There are only voices saying , "We will retaliate against Korea ."
China, Japan, and even North Korea warn of retaliation .
The United States gained arms to defeat China's supremacy challenge .
The United States gained arms to defeat China's supremacy challenge .
The war situation is expanding
from the trade war to the technical war and the exchange rate war .
US companies such as Google and Intel have announced
that they will stop trading with China Huawei ,
and allies from allies are following.
China has issued a total mobilization order against the United States.
"If South Korea agrees with the US-promoted" Anti-Faway "movement,
it may take large-scale retaliatory measures
such as the Terminal High Altitude Defense Missile (THAAD) retaliation."
And pressure has been applied.
Korea has been scared to say, “The Huawei problem may be a spike.”
If Korea agrees with "anti-way",
some Chinese retaliation will be inevitable.
However,
from the experience of former THAAD retaliatory measures,
China's retaliation is considered to be more limited than I thought.
First of all,
trade in China increased by 14% despite
the fact that the THAAD revolt was as large as possible.
Most of Korea's exports to China are essential parts and materials
for Chinese industries.
Korea buys Huawei's communication equipment,
but Huawei needs to buy more Korean-made parts.
Moreover, not only American companies
but also many companies such as Japan, the UK and Taiwan
We agree with "Anti-Fuway"
and it is practically difficult to find non-Korean alternatives .
In addition, it is difficult for Korea alone to retaliate,
as all the top companies in the world agree.
This situation is a chance for the chance of a lifetime
for Korean companies that were overwhelmed
by China in the digital platform competition that will drive future growth,
such as artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G. It may be.
It would be Japan's retaliation
that would be a more deadly threat to the Korean economy
than Huawei 's retaliation .
Although China's retaliation threatens to lose the market,
Japan's retaliation threatens the key points of Korean industry .
The Korea- Japan relationship is in the worst condition since
the normalization of diplomatic relations, after the Korea Supreme Court
(the Supreme Court)
ssued a compensation ruling for Korean wartime workers last year.
The Korean Wartime Workers issue is a case that was finally resolved
by the two governments under the 1965 Korea-Japan Basic Treaty .
The ruling of the Korean Grand Court has reversed
what is specified in the treaty .
Naturally, Japan is strongly repulsed.
However, what is surprising is that
"I can not be involved in the Great Court decision"
The reason is that the Korean government has not been responding
to Japan's dialogue proposal and is watching for nearly eight months .
Meanwhile,
the plaintiffs have taken legal proceedings
to seize the assets of Japanese companies in Korea ,
and the Japanese government is ready to retaliate
by activating foreign protection rights
if the seized assets of its own companies are sold.
If Japan's retaliation becomes a reality, all of Korea's main products ,
organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), smart phones,
and semiconductor production that rely on Japanese equipment
and materials will be “ paralyzed ”.
In addition, financial measures may lower the credibility of the country
and may have a major impact on the Korean economy .
North Korea is very angry
North Korea is very angry
with South Korea that it "does not do anything for offer".
It is expected that the "unknown projectiles"
will be launched last month and the "satellite projectiles"
will be launched by the end of the year.
This is North Korea's revenge.
If so, the United States will tighten sanctions against North Korea
and enter financial sanctions .
It is reported that several hundred thousand tons of coal
from North Korea were illegally brought into Korea against
the UN sanctions resolution draft,
and several hundred thousand tons of refined oil
from Korea were illegally taken out to North Korea.
It is feared that Korean companies and financial institutions
may be subject to a “ secondary boycott ”
if US sanctions against North Korea are triggered.
It is not isolated alone at the very
Korea stall alone with no one on Korea side.
No one do not stood up until this happened.
There is neither preventive diplomacy nor crisis management.
If this situation continues,
the downturn Korean economy can not avoid fatal damage.
First of all, it is better to prevent revenge.
Korea stall alone with no one on Korea side.
No one do not stood up until this happened.
There is neither preventive diplomacy nor crisis management.
If this situation continues,
the downturn Korean economy can not avoid fatal damage.
First of all, it is better to prevent revenge.
"That's not going to happen"
You have to give up your optimism and do your best.
Nobody wants revenge.
The reprising party also loses a lot.
However, there is no way to stop retaliation unless Korea gets up.
It is necessary to get rid of the neglected state and develop a total war
for crisis management.
https://lavender.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/news4plus/1559488541/-10
> It may be a chance for the chance of a lifetime for Korean companies .
Korean companies do not benefit
from digital platforms ahead of China over the United States.
First of all, the market size is different.
Where is Korea planning to sell things after losing the Chinese market?
China has a large market in the country, but Korea will not.
If you attach to the United States,
it means giving up the Chinese market .
After all, Korea's economy can only be defeated
if it reaches the United States .
It may not die in the war, but it dies in the economy.
> From the experience of former THAAD retaliation measures,
China's retaliation is more limited than Korea thought
It is not a level that can be achieved
with large-scale retaliation similar to THAAD deployment.
After all, the battle is dominated by the United States and China .
If Korea comes to the United States, China will not forgive Korea.
In the first place, has Korea forgotten that it has declared 3 non- + 1 limits?
If you attach it to America, you will definitely break it.
If so, Korea will lose credit from China in the future.
It's no longer completely out of buddy .
Korea can not do without China.
Historically, geographically, it will be clear .
> In fact,
it is difficult to find alternative products that are not made in Korea .
Do you think America will allow you to buy Korean parts from China?
After all, does Korea have no choice but to make it other than US made?
Rather, it is the opposite.
The United States has made
it impossible to build China's telecommunications infrastructure.
Naturally, if Korea sells parts, it will get in the way.
So sanctions Korean companies not to sell parts .
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