https://shinjukuacc.com/20181220-02
2018/12/20
CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal1
CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal2
CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal3
CanTrustKorea'sForeignExchangeReservesTrueOrFal4
What is the composition of foreign currency reserves in Korea by currency?
Then,
based on the composition ratio of this Chart 4,
let's estimate the composition by foreign currency
of Korea's foreign exchange reserves by making the total column $ 403 billion.
This is Chart 5
(However, unlike Chart 3 and Chart 4,
Please note that the monetary unit is "one billion dollars").
Chart 5 Korea's foreign exchange reserves forecast based
on Chart 4 (end of September, 2018 )
|
currency |
Amount ($ 100 million) |
Composition ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
U.S. dollar |
2772 |
69% |
|
Euro |
479 |
12% |
|
CNY |
82 |
2% |
|
Japanese yen |
221 |
Five% |
|
GBP |
199 |
Five% |
|
Australian dollar |
76 |
2% |
|
Canadian Dollar |
85 |
2% |
|
Swiss franc |
7 |
0% |
|
Other currency |
109 |
3% |
|
total |
4030 |
100% |
([Source] IMF data, author authored from Korea Bank data)
There is no guarantee that this proportion is correct,
but still, as the Korean economy relies heavily on the US dollar,
" If Korea's foreign exchange reserves statistics are correct, "
this structure should not deviate much from the actual situation .
By the way, according to the “ External Assets / Debt ”
data cited earlier, South Korea's private sector
(banks, companies, pension funds)
also holds $ 187.3 billion of foreign currency bonds.
Suppose that half of this $ 93.6 billion is a US dollar bond.
Then,
the US dollar bond held by Korea as a whole country
should be $ 370.8 billion
(= $ 277.2 billion included
in foreign exchange reserves + $ 93.6 billion owned by the private sector).
Therefore,
we will deduct the foreign exchange reserves
of non-Eurozone European countries,
such as Switzerland,
from the amount of euro-denominated assets shown in Figure 3.
However, as the exact amount is not clear,
let's temporarily exclude $ 1 trillion ( Chart 4 ).
Chart 4 IMF COFER data,
If you reduced the euro by $ 1 trillion
|
currency |
Amount (billion dollars) |
Composition ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
U.S. dollar |
6551 |
69% |
|
Euro |
1132 |
12% |
|
CNY |
193 |
2% |
|
Japanese yen |
523 |
Five% |
|
GBP |
471 |
Five% |
|
Australian dollar |
179 |
2% |
|
Canadian Dollar |
201 |
2% |
|
Swiss franc |
17 |
0% |
|
Other currency |
257 |
3% |
|
total |
9523 |
100% |
([Source] author created from IMF data)
The percentage of euro-denominated assets is still a little 10 %,
but with this correction,
it will approach the currency-specific composition of foreign exchange reserves
before September 2011
when Switzerland launched an unlimited exchange intervention.
In other words,
it can be considered that Chart 4 is the average currency composition
of foreign exchange reserves, which is really close to the real world.
That's a two step approach.
Published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
" Composition by official foreign exchange reserve currency "
Let's take a look at the data
( Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, COFER ).
Of the world's foreign exchange reserves,
the proportion of US dollar assets to the amount
of which the breakdown is clear is approximately 60% ( Figure 3 ).
Chart 3 IMF COFER (end of June 2018 ) ※ Breakdown only
|
currency |
Amount (billion dollars) |
Composition ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
U.S. dollar |
6551 |
62% |
|
Euro |
2132 |
20% |
|
CNY |
193 |
2% |
|
Japanese yen |
523 |
Five% |
|
GBP |
471 |
Four% |
|
Australian dollar |
179 |
2% |
|
Canadian Dollar |
201 |
2% |
|
Swiss franc |
17 |
0% |
|
Other currency |
257 |
2% |
|
total |
10523 |
100% |
([Source] author created from IMF data)
With regard to the composition of balances by currency,
countries in the whole world have almost the same composition
in every country in light of the relationship
with the currency issuing country and the ease of use of the currency.
However,
in the case of European countries, the majority
of the non-Eurozone foreign exchange reserves consist mostly
of the euro (especially Switzerland),
and only one of the euro-denominated foreign exchange reserves
(a little less than $ 2 trillion)
It is thought that it accounts for about $ 700- $ 800 billion.
That means that European countries such as Switzerland
may be pushing up the percentage of euro-denominated assets,
and this factor is important in predicting the currency composition
of Asian countries' foreign exchange reserves such as China and Korea.
It needs to be excluded.
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