めぐみさんに届け長包の調べ／売り上げ一部拉致被害者へ

　北朝鮮に拉致された横田めぐみさん＝失跡当時（１３）＝にささげようと、宮良長包の「母恋し」のＣＤが二十日、発売された。那覇市出身で神奈川県川崎市在住の上原紀江さん（６０）が呼び掛け、ソプラノ歌手・桜井純恵さん＝同市＝が歌う。上原さんは「名曲が全国の人の心に響くとともに、被害者の家族が一日でも早く再会できるように祈りたい」と期待を込めている。

　上原さんは昨年、母を思う同曲が、「めぐみさんの心境と同じだ」と心を動かされ、めぐみさんの両親の滋、早紀江さんらに宮良長包のＣＤを贈った。

　その後、上原さんが市内のＦＭ放送などを通じて曲のＰＲに奔走していたころ、「沖縄音楽が好き」という桜井さんと出会った。「二人の思いが重なり合った」という桜井さんの所属レコード会社から発売が決まった。

　ＣＤには「えんどうの花」も収録。定価千円で、売り上げの一部は北朝鮮による拉致被害者家族連絡会に寄付される。問い合わせはミュージック・マーケット、電話０４４（８１３）３４０９。

沖縄タイムス

Disarming North Korea

By Graham Allison The Boston Globe
Published: May 20, 2007


The failure of North Korea to meet the deadline for closing its Yongbyon nuclear reactor and providing a list of all nuclear materials provides a preview of what is to come on the long road between Pyongyang's pledge to denuclearize and the actual elimination of all nuclear weapons and materials from North Korea.

North Korea has a plausible excuse for missing the first deadline. As part of the Feb. 13th agreement, the Bush administration agreed to release $25 million of North Korean funds frozen in a Macau bank. According to the U.S. government, a legal snafu delayed release of the funds. North Korea refused to act until it sees the money.

The parties will get over this road bump, the $25 million will be transferred. North Korea will then close its Yongbyon reactor, invite the inspectors back to verify this, and hand over a list of some, not all, nuclear materials and activity. At that point, the hard bargaining will begin.

From Kim Jong Il's perspective, with an arsenal of 10 bombs of plutonium and a nuclear weapons test, North Korea is a self-declared if yet-unrecognized nuclear weapons state. His goal is to keep these weapons, sell the aging Yongbyon reactor and reprocessing facility for the highest price, and do this in a way that shows sufficient deference to Beijing to restore its de facto protection.

Kim Jong Il's experience with the other parties, especially President George W. Bush, gives him grounds for believing that he can have his cake and eat it: Sell his nuclear weapons production capability to the other states while keeping a minimum nuclear deterrent.

South Korea will be the first member of the coalition to defect. Declaration of a willingness to denuclearize was sufficient to lead President Roh Moo Hyun to declare victory and resume major South Korean economic, food, and oil assistance to its Northern brothers. After the closing of Yongbyon, watch for Roh to propose a bilateral summit meeting with Kim Jong Il. For that meeting Kim Jong Il will demand tribute at least equal to that paid by Roh's predecessor, who delivered $500 million.

Splitting the United States and China will be more difficult, but not impossible. China's leadership was offended by North Korea's blatant disregard of their warnings against testing a nuclear bomb. Whether this reflects a strategic judgment by President Hu Jintao that a nuclear-armed North Korea is unacceptable to China's national interests, or simply embarrassment at being stiffed by a small dependent neighbor, remains unclear. To this point, China has been more concerned about the prospect of American actions aimed at toppling Kim Jong Il's regime than about North Korea's buildup of plutonium for nuclear bombs.

For Beijing, the Bush administration's primary objective of regime change is its own worst nightmare. Collapse could send millions of refugees into China. More importantly, it would lead to absorption of North Korea by South Korea, thus eliminating the buffer between a military ally of the United States and China. Preventing this outcome was the reason China entered the Korean War and pushed U.S. forces back to the current divide between North and South Korea. Kim Jong Il's objective must therefore be to persuade Hu that the Bush administration has not changed its stripes - that its real objective continues to be the destabilization, not the denuclearization, of North Korea.

Considerable uncertainty remains about how the Bush administration will play its hand. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her chief negotiator, Chris Hill, have for now overcome the previous paralysis caused by the divisions between the Cheney-Rumsfeld-Bolton axis that demanded regime change and the State Department. Hill proved effective in orchestrating North Korea's Feb. 13 agreement. The 60-day delay in the release of the $25 million, however, is not encouraging for an administration that has only 610 days left.

After the closing and disabling of Yongbyon, expect lengthy slogging through incomplete records, all in Korean script, missed deadlines, disputes about who can visit where, and all the other antics that have left International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors unable to close the nuclear file in Iran after 20 years of efforts.

My bet, therefore, is that Kim Jong Il will succeed: Selling his future nuclear weapons production capability at Yongbyon for a good price and China's graces, while keeping a minimum nuclear deterrent.

Disarming North Korea - International Herald Tribune

ヒル米国務次官補、北朝鮮に核施設の停止を重ねて要請

【5月24日 AFP】米国のクリストファー・ヒル（Christopher Hill）国務次官補は24日、訪問先のベトナムで、北朝鮮に対し核開発計画の放棄に向けた初期段階措置の履行に踏み切るよう改めて要請するとともに、障害となっているマカオの銀行の北朝鮮資金の送金問題について、迅速に解決することを約束した。

　北朝鮮の核問題をめぐる6か国協議で米首席代表を務めるヒル国務次官補は、ハノイ（Hanoi）で記者団に対し「BDA問題解決について、全力を尽力している」と述べた。

　「問題は近く解決する。北朝鮮は、今こそ国際原理職機関（International Atomic Energy Agency、IAEA）と連絡を取り、寧辺（Yongbyon）の核施設の停止措置に踏み切る時だ」（ヒル次官補）

　また、BDA問題は「かなり複雑で、わたしの経験上最も複雑な問題といえる」と述べる一方、「解決できる自信はある。解決を可能にする具体的な提案を用意している。解決したら喜んで公表する」とも話した。

　北朝鮮は2月の6か国協議で、エネルギー支援と引き換えに寧辺の核施設の停止、封印で合意。実施については、2005年以降マカオの銀行バンコ・デルタ・アジア（Banco Delta Asia、BDA）に凍結されていた北朝鮮関連資金約2500万ドル（約30億円）の返還が先だとして、拒否している。

　米国は3月、BDAの北朝鮮資金の凍結を解除したが、他の銀行が犯罪に関与している恐れのある資金の受け入れを拒否したことから、返還作業が難航している。(c)AFP

ヒル米国務次官補、北朝鮮に核施設の停止を重ねて要請 AFPBB News