In scoring the expected value table, when we look at the fine
situation of base-out, because the special three situations
comes into view, it should be easy to write.
The three situations, depending on the quality of the runners
of base-running, before and after the event, the difference
between the expected value is larger ones most.
FIG.22
(2-b, 2) → 1-base hit → 1 point + (1-b, 2)
or
(2-b, 2) → 1-base hit → 0 point + (1&3-b, 2)
As shown in the figure, on whether runner in the hit stops at
either third base to home in, big difference comes out (0.74).
If the runner is by temporarily aggressive rush became out
at home plate, scoring the expected value to be lost it 0.475.
Gain : 0.74
Loss : 0.475
FIG.23
(1-b, 2) → 2-base hit → 1 point + (2-b, 2)
or
(1-b, 2) → 2-base hit → 0 point + (2&3-b, 2)
Gain : 0.74
Loss : 0.573
FIG.24
(1&3-b,2) → GDP → 1 point + (0-b, 2)
or
(1&3-b,2) → GDP → 0 point + (3-b, 2)
Gain : 0.74
Loss : 0.357
In these situations, greater gain due success, loss due to failure is not so large.
Runner, in such circumstances, start quickly, aimed at home plate as possible.
It should be noted, also the same-base situation, if the out
count is 1 out or 2 out, but that should not be excessive.
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得点期待値表で、細かく状況を見ていくと、特殊な３つの状況が見えてくるので、
簡単に記述しておく。
この３つの状況は、ランナーの走塁の質によって、出来事の前後で
の、期待値の差が一番大きくなるものである。
このような状況では、ランナーは素早くスタートし、できる限り本塁を狙うべきだ。
注意すべきは、同じ出塁状況でも、0アウトや1アウトでは、得られる得点期待値は
少なく、大きなリスクをおかして本塁を狙うべきではないことだ。