誰も書かなかった「中国株式会社」

中国株式会社は海外で「長征」を始めたのか？（エコノミスト誌）

Chinese industry and the state
The myth of China Inc　

中国企業の真の所有者は不分明なので、中国企業の海外進出や企業買収は世界支配をたくらむ国策ではないかという危惧が米国では強くなっています。

果たして、その実態は、・・・・・・・・・

（前略）・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

Reasons to be fearful

Foreign fears about the expansion of Chinese firms are often compounded by the murkiness of their ownership. Take Huawei（華威集団）, a telecoms firm that is the most global of any Chinese company, and also among the least transparent. Although technically private, its shares are probably owned by local state telecoms customers. It also has a $10 billion credit line from China Development Bank, famed for its loans to support state policy. Its founder, Ren Zhengfei, was a former People's Liberation Army officer. But the fact that no one knows who runs Huawei could weaken it. It has grown fast in a booming market, but its unclear ownership means it cannot easily get a stockmarket listing, nor reward staff with stock options. It may also hinder plans for overseas expansion—like a rumoured bid for Britain's Marconi—since potential foreign partners will be wary of a firm with such an opaque ownership structure.

Fears that Chinese firms are acting as the commercial arm of an expansionist state are thus belied（裏切る） by a more complicated and disorderly reality. The real reason to fear China's overseas expansion is quite different. Because Chinese firms have grown up in an irrational and chaotic business environment, they may export some very bad habits. As Mr Gilboy puts it: “when Japanese companies took over American ones, they mostly made them better. If the Chinese run foreign firms like they operate at home, driving prices down, misallocating capital and over-diversifying, that is genuinely something to fear.”

独断的コメント：

　週刊誌の風評記事に、経済産業省の役人が危機にある三洋電機の買収を中国筋に持ち込んだところ、別の“S”社なら大いに興味があるといわれたとありました。

　この逸話は、寝技で解決したがる日本の役人体質と、いいものだけをほしがる中国人体質を良く示していますが、中国の実態はさらに複雑なようです。

太古の昔から公的権力を私利・私欲に使うことを当然視してきた家産制国家では、　「中国株式会社」などはなく、省庁ごと或いは中央対地方の役所ごとに利権争奪が行われます。

この記事はそのような国家体質の具体例を提示しています。特に記事の最後にある、「日本企業の買収では会社が良くなるのに、中国の場合は国内の無法・無秩序を撒き散らすだけ」という意見には説得力があります。

日本では内幕モノでしか中々報道されない中国企業の実態がここにあります。

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.economist.com/business/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=4352026

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予想されていたカトリーナ災害！

クルーグマン教授、またまた怒る！（ニューヨーク・タイムス紙）

A Can't-Do Government

By PAUL KRUGMAN

　９．１１の以前から、米国を襲う３大災害は、ニューヨークのテロ、サンフランシスコの地震、ニューオーリンズのハリケーンと指摘されていたようです。

　クルーグマン教授は、それにもかかわらずカトリーナの大災害が発生したのは人災だといって、３つの問題を指摘します。

Before 9/11 the Federal Emergency Management Agency listed the three most likely catastrophic disasters facing America: a terrorist attack on New York, a major earthquake in San Francisco and a hurricane strike on New Orleans. "The New Orleans hurricane scenario," The Houston Chronicle wrote in December 2001, "may be the deadliest of all." It described a potential catastrophe very much like the one now happening.

So why were New Orleans and the nation so unprepared? After 9/11, hard questions were deferred in the name of national unity, then buried under a thick coat of whitewash（水漆喰、ごまかし、粉飾）. This time, we need accountability.

（中略）・・・・・・・・・・

At a fundamental level, I'd argue, our current leaders just aren't serious about some of the essential functions of government. They like waging war, but they don't like providing security, rescuing those in need or spending on preventive measures. And they never, ever ask for shared sacrifice.

Yesterday Mr. Bush made an utterly fantastic claim: that nobody expected the breach of the levees（堤防）. In fact, there had been repeated warnings about exactly that risk.

So America, once famous for its can-do（やる気） attitude, now has a can't-do government that makes excuses instead of doing its job. And while it makes those excuses, Americans are dying.

独断的コメント：

　ブッシュ共和党政権が気に入らないクルーグマン先生は、米国のあらゆる問題をブッシュのせいにしますが、カトリーナ災害救助の遅れは、イラクの泥沼化と繋がっており、やる気の政府から、無気力の政府に代わってしまったと嘆くのです。

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/02/opinion/02krugman.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print

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キャット・ボンドをご存知ですか？

キャット・ボンドで稼ぐヘッジ・ファンド（フォーブス誌）

Catastrophe Bonds

米国の極貧地帯を襲ったカトリーナの被害は目を覆うものがありますが、一方災害で儲ける業態もあります。

この記事はそのような業種のひとつとして、ヘッジ・ファンドを取り上げています。

It's not like we needed another reason to resent hedge funds.

While Gulf Coast residents are just beginning to assess the catastrophic damage and coordinate relief efforts after Hurricane Katrina, there are already signs of one set of winners--investors in an arcane security known as catastrophe bonds.

Holders of catastrophe bonds with exposure to Atlantic hurricane risks aren't likely to see any losses, according to Eqecat, a firm that measures losses for the insurance industry, and Standard & Poor's. That's because the bonds, which are held by hedge funds, pensions and other insurance companies, are structured in a way that makes hitting the triggers for a loss all but impossible to reach.

These bonds, which began arriving after Hurricane Andrew blew through in 1992, are issued by insurance companies, which take the premiums on property and casualty policies, bundle them, then sell the products to investors at attractive interest rates. Most hurricane-related bonds are weighted to exposures in Florida and Texas, with few Gulf Coast exposures. There are also bonds that include risk from earthquakes and other potentially catastrophic events (including terrorist attacks, in some instances).

The real risk to investors is in the bond triggers. A catastrophic event such as Hurricane Katrina could in theory set them off, which could cost investors the entire principal of the bonds they'd bought.

The bonds set thresholds for claims or use factors such as wind speed at landfall to set the triggers. So, a Category 4 or 5 hurricane making a direct hit on Miami would trigger a principle loss for investors. But since 1997, none of the 59 Cat bonds issued has hit its trigger, even those covering Florida hurricane damage last year, when four storms battered the peninsula in rapid succession.
（後略）・・・・・・・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

キャット・ボンドは以前我が国でも東京ディズニーが発行して話題を集めましたが、その後は保険会社のリスク管理商品としてプロの間で発行されるため、一般の話題になることはありませんでした。

この記事によれば、過去発行されたキャット・ボンドがいずれも元本割れを起こしたことがないそうです。

利回りが高い上、元本割れしないこんな結構な商品に、目ざといヘッジ・ファンドがほって置くはずがなく、再保険会社まで設立してこの分野に参入しているようです。

このゲームは、所詮投資家の利得は発行者の損失というゼロサムの世界なので、いずれ発行体（保険会社）の反撃にあい、早晩スマートでないヘッジ・ファンドが打たれることになりかねません。

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.forbes.com/2005/08/31/hurricane-catastrophe-bonds-cx_lm_0831catbonds_print.html

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ブッシュ大統領への助言

歴史家ポール・ジョンソンの予言（フォーブス誌）

Look to India

　英国の歴史家、ポール・ジョンソン氏は２０５０年のジオ・エコノミーを描き、老大国化するEU ではなく、中国でもなく、インドとの関係強化をブッシュ大統領に強く勧めます。

その根拠が、以下の文章です。

・・・・・・・・・・・（前略）Given the climate of freedom that prevails in India, we can expect that it will be producing ideas, inventions and new processes of its own before long. China will not be able to match this until it dismantles its communist system--or lets it collapse. To have a truly innovative economy, freedom of thought and expression must be encouraged. That is the most important lesson of the modern age. India has this precious tradition, as well as the rule of law, both of which are legacies (I am proud to say) of British rule. The rule of law is essential to long-term investment on the largest possible scale.

Counterbalance

India ought to also figure largely in President Bush's calculations for another reason: It is a counterbalance on two important fronts. India will prove invaluable as a counterbalance to China if China becomes aggressive, especially toward Taiwan. China has weaknesses in central Asia--especially in Tibet, its much-oppressed and rebellious colony. Tibet, for many reasons, has closer affinities to India and is much closer geographically to Delhi than to Beijing.

India is also a counterbalance to the Muslim world. It is an example to its neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh. As India's standard of living rises and India takes its place at the world's head table, the inhabitants of these two neighboring countries are bound to ask, "What's holding us back, while India prospers?" The answer will come, as it increasingly comes to Arab lands: Islamic fundamentalism.

All these trends can be to America's advantage. But they must be cultivated and reinforced by intelligent U.S. policies and sophisticated diplomacy.

独断的コメント：

　中国と異なり、インドには表現の自由と順法精神があり、これは英国の遺産だと公言するところは、いまだに大英帝国を引きずる英国人の傲慢なところですが、地政学的にもインドの重要性は明らかでしょう。

　この助言は、ブッシュ氏より小泉氏へのほうがふさわしいと思いますが、日本は助言にも値しないのでしょうか？

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0905/037_print.html

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文明はいよいよ衝突に向かう！

印中化石燃料争奪戦（ビジネス・ウィーク誌）

China And India: A Rage For Oil

Beijing has the upper hand now. But Moscow is old friends with Delhi

CNOOCはUnocal買収に失敗しましたが、CNPCはインドの国営石油会社を出し抜き、カザフスタンの石油利権を買収しようとしています。

　急速に経済発展を遂げているこの両国には膨大な石油需要があり、世界中で石油資源を求めています。
（前略）・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・The Chinese are gaining ground in Russia. Last December both New Delhi and Beijing negotiated with Moscow as it sought financing for its $9 billion renationalization of Yuganskneftegaz, the core production subsidiary of the troubled oil major Yukos. Although neither Asian rival walked away with equity in the Russian company, the Chinese ended up lending the Russians $6 billion in return for guaranteed oil supplies at a bargain price. And in Angola last year, China Petrochemical Corp. (better known as SINOPEC) beat ONGC in bidding for an oil exploration block being sold by Shell Oil Co.

That's largely because China has greater financial muscle. In the past five years, CNPC has invested $45 billion in new energy sources, compared with ONGC's $3.5 billion. Another problem, some grumble, is India's democratic -- and therefore slow -- political system, which may make it harder for ONGC to jump at investment opportunities abroad. "Whenever we've seen the Indians and Chinese tussle, the Chinese have been faster and more aggressive in attaining their objective," says Stephen O'Sullivan, head of research at United Financial Group.
（後略）・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

　自由・民主などにこだわらない中国は、独裁政権であろうと宗教国家であろうと石油を求めて世界戦略を行っています。

　インドは、意思決定も遅く、民主主義国家としての節度を守らなければならないので、不利な立場にあるようですが、ロシアとの間では長年の信頼関係が長期的には不信の中露関係を圧倒していくだろうと見られるようです。

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_36/b3949086_mz015.htm?chan=gb

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ヘッジ・ファンドに騙される機関投資家

ヘッジ・ファンドを名乗る詐欺？（ニューヨーク・タイムス紙）

Big Account in Arizona May Hold Bayou Cash

LTCMの破綻をものともせず、急拡大を遂げているヘッジ・ファンドですが、すべてが順調なわけではありません。

先ごろもGMの社債格付け低下によって、２，３のヘッジ・ファンドが破綻しました。

　このベイヨー・ファンドの経営者、イスラエル氏は著名なヘッジ・ファンド、レオン・クーパーマンのオメガ・アドバイザーズで活躍したという売りで、4億ドルを集めましたが、その金は行方不明です。

It was a hedge fund in the suburbs of Connecticut, the home of many huge hedge funds, one run by a well-connected trader. Nothing appeared amiss until the hedge fund promised last month to return investors' money and then went silent - no money, no communications.

The fate of the more than $400 million that the fund, Bayou, said it had under management was unknown. Now, part of the mystery may be solved.

Authorities in Arizona have seized $101 million in a Wachovia Bank account that they say could be funds from Bayou. The funds, which have traveled around the world, have not been verified as Bayou money. But both Samuel Israel III, Bayou's founder, and the account holder, Majestic Capital, a firm whose connection to Bayou is not clear, have indicated to the Arizona attorney general's office that the money belonged to Majestic. It, in turn, understood that the money was in accounts for the Bayou Fund L.L.C. or its founder, Mr. Israel, according to Cameron Holmes, chief counsel in the financial remedies section of the attorney general's office.（後略）・・・・・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

　この事件は全容がいまだ不明ですが、運用の失敗よりは、詐欺のように見られます。

　簡単にだまされる老人が主体のわが国と違って、アドバイザーやコンサルタントの助言で投資決定を行う機関投資家が何故かくも簡単に欺かれるのでしょうか？

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/31/business/31hedge.html?pagewanted=print

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東は東、西は西？

２１世紀経済の主役達（ニューヨーク・タイムス紙）

China Ups the Ante in Its Bid for Oil

　ユノカル買収に失敗した中国の国策石油会社は、今度はインドの国営石油会社を打ち負かし、カナダ籍で、本部がロンドン、石油利権がカザフスタンという不思議な会社を買収しようとしています・・・・・・・・・・

HONG KONG, Aug. 22 - One of China's state-owned oil companies may still be smarting（傷ついている） from its failure to acquire Unocal this summer. But another Chinese oil giant showed on Monday that this country is still snapping up assets to satisfy its hunger for energy.

China's biggest state-owned oil company, the China National Petroleum Corporation, announced on Monday that it would pay $4.18 billion for a Canadian oil company with shares traded in New York and substantial reserves in Kazakhstan.

It is China's largest foreign acquisition yet, and more than twice what a Chinese computer company paid for I.B.M.'s personal computer business.

China National Petroleum outbid India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation in reaching a deal to acquire PetroKazakhstan , and it is not clear whether the Indian company will step up with a counterbid. Still, the process underlines the growing competition for oil resources by the world's two most populous countries, each of which is rapidly increasing oil imports.

Monday's transaction shows that the great game, once a competition between imperial Russia and Britain for influence in Central Asia, lives on with new players, as China increasingly challenges Russia and the United States for access to the region's energy riches. （後略）・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

「東は東、西は西」という名（迷？）言をはいて名高いキプリングは、１８世紀の中央アジアを巡る英露の利権闘争を「グレート・ゲーム」と呼びました。

　２１世紀の今日、中央アジアは再び利権抗争の舞台に登場しました。今回は、米欧という２０世紀の覇者に加え、ロシア、中国、インドという新興勢力も加わり、ジオポリティックスは複雑・錯綜していきます。

　このゲームのこれからの展開は、きわめて興味深いものがありますが、２０世紀の経済大国、日本に出番はないようです。

時間があれば、

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/business/worldbusiness/23oil.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print

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監査法人のTBTF（too big to fail）

会社ぐるみの脱税幇助でも破綻させられない！

（ワシントン・ポスト紙）

KPMG Nears Agreement On Tax-Shelter Abuses

　一部パートナー達が売った脱税スキームの摘発を受け、KPMGは仲間を切り捨て、生き残りに必死です。

　司法当局も、4社寡占を3社の寡占にすることの影響や、アンダーセンの刑事告発が最終的に無罪になったこともあり、告発を躊躇しているように見えます。

KPMG LLP is nearing agreement on a deal with federal prosecutors that would avert an indictment against the nation's fourth-largest accounting firm for its sale of abusive tax shelters, according to sources familiar with the pact.

The agreement calls for KPMG to pay between $300 million and $500 million and to open its operations to independent review as a condition for avoiding prosecution, according to people briefed on the deal. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because the settlement, known as a deferred prosecution, has not been publicly announced.

Under the conditions of the settlement, KPMG must stay out of trouble for a set period of time. If the firm succeeds, the charges will be dropped by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. A federal judge in Manhattan must approve the agreement, which is likely to be presented in court later this week.

The deal would mark an end to months of intense negotiations among prosecutors and KPMG leaders, who took the unusual step of issuing a public statement in June that said the firm took "full responsibility for the unlawful conduct by former KPMG partners."

Several of those former partners could face criminal charges by a New York grand jury within the next few days related to their work on the shelters, which brought the firm $124 million in fees between 1997 and 2001, according to Senate investigators．（後略）・・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

　この背景には、不祥事が相次ぐ米国企業の内部統制をチェックさせる必要性に迫られているにもかかわらず、アーサー・アンダーセンを破綻させた結果、大手会計事務所が4社しかなく、これ以上減らすわけには行かないという事情があるようです。

　大きく、少なくなりすぎたことが、TBTFという保険機能を果たすようになってしまっています。

　それでも、SECは万一一社が消滅した場合に備えてコンティンジェンシー・プランを検討中のようです。

　それよりも不思議なことは、会計士が容易に狙われるのに対し、弁護士は常に処罰を免れていることです。

時間があれば、

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/AR2005082201484_

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メルクの薬害事件には共犯者がいる！！

メルクの薬害事件には共犯者がいる！！

無責任官庁の告発者（フォーブス誌）
David Graham On The Vioxx Verdict

メルク社の鎮痛剤、バイオックスを巡る訴訟で、陪審員は２５３百万ドルの賠償金を未亡人に支払う評決（判決は一桁小さくなるようでうです）を下しましたが、薬害訴訟で責任を問うべきは製薬会社のみならず、所轄官庁たるFDAにもあるというのが、内部告発者、デイビッド・グラハム氏の意見です。・・・

No single person has come to more represent the big questions about drug safety that emerged following the withdrawal of Merck's painkiller Vioxx than the Food and Drug Administration's David Graham .

And now that a Texas jury has awarded the widow of one Vioxx patient $253 million, Graham, who works in the FDA's Office of Drug Safety, is more critical than ever. Of the drug, and his employer, for whom he doesn't speak.

"If the judgment is that there's blood on Merck's (nyse: MRK - news - people ) hands," Graham says, "there's blood on the FDA's hands as well."

Graham has estimated that Vioxx killed some 60,000 patients--as many people, he points out, as died in the Vietnam War. He says that fundamental problems at the FDA led to those deaths. "People should turn to Congress and demand a drug safety system that is free from corporate influence--and a distinct center for drug safety."

In Graham's eyes, the problem at the FDA is that the same scientists who approve drugs are the ones charged with deciding whether or not they are safe enough to remain on the market when problems crop up. "There is no feedback or review process to say, 'You guys have made a big mistake,' " he says. When problems are recognized by drug safety officers, it can be hard for the message to take hold.

Graham says that he thinks there should be formal, periodic reviews of the safety of new medicines--and that the FDA should release documents that explain its reasoning.

"The FDA does not think anything it did is a mistake," he says. "None of its decisions are evidence-based." （後略）・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

つい数年前までは、AAAの格付けを有し、最強の製薬会社、エクセレント・カンパニーと称されていたメルクですが、いまや将来も危ぶまれるほど追い込まれつつあります。

　我が国の製薬会社は、厚労省や司法制度の厚い保護があるので、このような事態にはならず、他山の石とすることもないと思っているでしょう。

そういう意味で、是非製薬外資が１－２社買収でもして、グローバル・スタンダードを教えてもらいたいものです。

　それ以上に問題なのが、役所の無責任体質です。今後我が国ではアスベスト被害が急増するでしょうが、無策に加え、隠蔽と先送りを続けてきた関係省庁を追及するすべはあるのでしょうか？企業は2百万円程度の見舞金で誤魔化そうとし、役所は被害者救済の新法制定と血税投入で過去の無作為の責任を消し去ろうとしています。

　「官―業」の無責任体質を追及するには、和製グラハム氏の登場とそれを支える強い市民社会が必要なのでしょう。

時間があれば、

http://www.forbes.com/2005/08/19/merck-vioxx-graham_cx_mh_0819graham_print.html

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“Chindia”？

21世紀経済の担い手が急成長中（ビジネス・ウィーク誌）

A New World Economy

The balance of power will shift to the East as China and India evolve

ビジネス・ウィークの最新号は、中国・インド特集を行なっています。この記事はその中の中心記事の中核部分です。

・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・（前略）

SIMULTANEOUS TAKEOFFS
China and India. Rarely has the economic ascent of two still relatively poor nations been watched with such a mixture of awe, opportunism, and trepidation. The postwar era witnessed economic miracles in Japan and South Korea. But neither was populous enough to power worldwide growth or change the game in a complete spectrum of industries. China and India, by contrast, possess the weight and dynamism to transform the 21st-century global economy. The closest parallel to their emergence is the saga of 19th-century America, a huge continental economy with a young, driven workforce that grabbed the lead in agriculture, apparel, and the high technologies of the era, such as steam engines, the telegraph, and electric lights.

But in a way, even America's rise falls short in comparison to what's happening now. Never has the world seen the simultaneous, sustained takeoffs of two nations that together account for one-third of the planet's population. For the past two decades, China has been growing at an astounding 9.5% a year, and India by 6%. Given their young populations, high savings, and the sheer amount of catching up they still have to do, most economists figure China and India possess the fundamentals to keep growing in the 7%-to-8% range for decades.

Barring cataclysm, within three decades India should have vaulted over Germany as the world's third-biggest economy. By mid-century, China should have overtaken the U.S. as No. 1. By then, China and India could account for half of global output. Indeed, the troika of China, India, and the U.S. -- the only industrialized nation with significant population growth -- by most projections will　dwarf every other economy．（後略）・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

独断的コメント：

この2国、“Chindia”の経済力は今のところわが国の半分に過ぎませんが、将来米国をはるかに凌駕するものと見込まれます。

　勿論経済発展の過程はスムースなものではありえませんが、いったんテイク・オフした経済はわが国の経験に照らしても自律的に指数的成長を遂げる可能性が強いものです。

　そのなかで、社会体制、デモグラフィー（一人っ子政策のトガ）、知識産業への傾斜度等からインドの可能性により注目すべきでしょう。

　このような市場を無視するわけにはいかないグローバル企業の活動があわせて報告されています。

更に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_34/b3948401.htm

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has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright

owner.

The material is being made available for purposes of education

and discussion in order to better understand the complex

nature of businesses in today's world.

We believe this constitutes a "fair use" of any such copyrighted

material as provided for in relevant national laws.

The material is distributed without profit to those who have

expressed an interest in receiving the included information for

research and educational purposes.

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of your own that go beyond "fair use", you must obtain permission

from the copyright owner.

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News is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred

as a result of its use.

Nor can we be responsible for any subsequent use of the material.