Since the defeat in the Second World War, Japan has had only defensive weapons. So, Russia and China have not attacked Japan.
But, if Japan acquires offensive weapons, Russia and China will make preemptive attacks against Japan because they know Japan is under the control of the US and will surely be ordered to use the offensive weapons against Russia and China.
Japanese former prime minister Shinzo Abe is advocating that Japan should share nuclear weapons with the US.
He demands that Japan’s defense budget should increase to as much as 2% of its GDP.
He also has been asserting that the Japan’s pacifist Constitution should be revised so that Japan can wage a war.
Ruling LDP (the Liberal Democratic Party) is trying to revise the Japan’s pacifist Constitution so that articles on the Japanese Self Defense Forces would be inserted therein so as to invalidate existing articles of renunciation of war and non-retention of offensive military forces.
In addition, Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), has proposed that Japan should start considering retention of nuclear submarines to cope with China, Russia and North Korea. He says that nuclear submarines have higher survivability than diesel submarines.
When you combine these arguments, you can see what the Japanese conservatives envisage. They want to arm Japan with nuclear submarines that can launch SLBMs (submarine launched ballistic missiles) with nuclear warheads.
Also, Rand Corporation, the most influential US think tank in the area of national security, indicates that…
/quote/ Should the United States continue to pursue GBIRMs (ground based intermediate range missiles) for the Indo-Pacific, the strategy most likely to succeed would be helping Japan develop an arsenal of ground-based, anti-ship missile capabilities.
This would be the first step in a longer-term U.S. strategy to encourage Japan to procure similar missiles with longer ranges.
/unquote/ [1]
The US wants to contain China. But, at the same time, it wants to avoid waging a war directly against China because it may evolve into a nuclear war and it would damage US businesses operating in China.
Thus, the US has decided to employs so-called “offshore balancing strategy”. In other words, the US wants regional allies, in this case, Japan to wage a proxy war against China for the US just like the US uses Ukraine as a proxy to draw Russia into a military conflict.
2. Russian and Chinese Preemptive Attacks
However, Shinzo Abe and other Japanese conservative politicians who advocate on nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines and revising the constitution don’t know the reality.
The reality is that, if Japan starts building nuclear submarines and making nuclear weapons, Russia and China will never acquiesce but launch preemptive attacks against Japan.
Since the defeat in the Second World War, Japan has had only defensive weapons. So, Russia and China have not attacked Japan.
But, if Japan acquires offensive weapons, Russia and China will make preemptive attacks against Japan because they know Japan is under the control of the US and will surely be ordered to use the offensive weapons against Russia and China.
If Japan initiates constructing nuclear submarines or sharing nuclear bombs, Russia and China will launch warning missiles into the Sea of Japan and Japan’s territorial waters.
If Japan doesn’t stop, Russia and China will launch warning missiles into Tokyo Bay.
If, even after Russia and China’s warning missiles into Tokyo Bay, Japan still doesn’t give up nuclear submarines and nuclear bombs, then Russia will launch missiles to barren uninhibited areas of Hokkaido (northern large island of Japan). And, China will provoke Japan over Senkaku Islands in the Sea of Japan to lure in Japan’s warships and sink Japan’s Aegis destroyers with hypersonic missiles.
The US will never intervene the conflict, fearing Russia and China’s hypersonic missiles and regarding Hokkaido and Senkaku Islands as non-critical issues for US national interests. Without US help, Japan will give up nuclear submarines and nuclear bombs.
3. Russian and Chinese Diplomatic Pressure
Before Russia and China resort to military measures, they will apply diplomatic pressure on Japan to let it give up its attempt on acquiring nuclear submarines and sharing nuclear weapons.
As Japan depends upon international trade, it is vulnerable to foreign pressure. Russia and China, together with “BRICS plus” and Asian, African, Pacific, Central & South American countries, would demand Japan should give up its attempt to acquire nuclear submarines and share nuclear weapons.
Also, Russia and China, together with “BRICS plus” and Asian, African, Pacific, Central & South American countries, can demand Japan that it should support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan so as to maintain peace and stability in Asia.
Facing pressure from worldwide nations, Japan will give up nuclear submarines and nuclear bombs. Japan will support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
China and Russia can form a regional military alliance geographically limited to Asia, which will supplement each other effectively and enhance overall security of both China and Russia.
1. Background
In recent years, the US treats Taiwan more and more as if it were an independent country despite the US’s repeated assurance that it is committed to a One China policy. US high ranking officials and members of the Congress visit Taiwan. The US announced that it would further deepen economic ties with Taiwan. The US keeps supplying weapons to Taiwan.
The US formulated an anti-China security pact called AUKUS in which the US and UK help Australia acquire nuclear submarines.
The US formulated QUAD in which the US, Japan, Australia and India cooperate to contain China.
NATO openly announced that it was planning to be expanded to Asia to contain China militarily.
The US is planning to deploy intermediate-range missiles along the so-called first island chain extending from Japanese islands, Taiwan through Philippines islands, which will threaten security of both China and Russia.
US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken keep making provocative comments and statements including Biden’s responding affirmatively when asked if the US would intervene militarily in Taiwan crisis, which the White House downplayed later.
2. Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Even under these critical circumstances, unlimited Sino-Russia complete military alliance is difficult. There are oppositions inside China. China does not want to get involved in conflicts in Europe. China does not want to damage her trade relations with European countries. Actually, Chinese military forces don’t have a structure or equipments to support Russia militarily in Europe.
In contrast, however, if the military alliance is geographically limited to Asia, cooperation between China and Russia will be very effective. China and Russia can enter the formal treaty of regional military alliance geographically limited to Asia.
China wants Russian military support to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening in Taiwan crisis.
Russia has excellent hypersonic weapons including Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles against which the US has no defense.
Russia and China have hypersonic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles which the US and NATO don’t have. The US and NATO have no defense against hypersonic weapons.
Russian Submarine fleets are very reliable and lethal sea-power against the US Navy. Russia’s anti-submarine warfare capability will be very helpful for China.
Russia is deploying Sarmat ballistic missiles which have the Fractional Orbital Bombardment (FOBS) capability. Unlike ordinary ICBMs that fly at the altitude of as high as 1200km , Sarmat flies at as low as 150km. Thus, it evades SBIRS and radar scan. US missile defense can never intercept it.
As for Russia, Russia doesn’t want to keep lots of forces in Asia as it wants to concentrate on the European theater. Sino-Russian regional military alliance will enable Russia to free up military forces such as infantry, tanks and armored vehicles in Asia and redeploy them to Europe.
Economically, China is expected to invest in Siberia and other Asian regions of Russia in the coming decades. Therefore, Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance in Asia will protect Sino-Russian economic interests as well.
Actually, military cooperation between China and Russia is active, growing and increasing in Asia.
In August 2021, a joint military exercise between China and Russia, called ZAPAD/INTERACTION-2021, was conducted in northwest China's Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
The joint military exercise was attended by more than 10,000 service personnel and main battle armaments, including aircraft, artillery and armored vehicles. [1]
In October 2021, the fleet of Chinese and Russian 10 war ships with support ships conducted a joint naval patrol, which sailed from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean, passing through the Tsugaru strait, then sailed southward along the Japanese mainland and returned to the East China Sea, passing through the Osumi strait. The Chinese and Russian fleet sailed around the entire Japanese main islands.
In May 2022, Chinese and Russian nuclear capable bombers conducted a joint patrol over the Sea of Japan exactly when US President Biden was visiting Japan and having a QUAD meeting in Tokyo together with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Modi and Australian Prime Minister Albanese.
To ensure security of China and Russia, the geographical scope of Sino-Russian regional military alliance in Asia would reach the international date line to the east, the Bering Strait to the north, the Antarctica to the south, and Myanmar, Central Asia and the Ural Mountains to the west.
3. Deterring Effects of Sino-Russian Regional Alliance on Taiwan Crisis
One of the most important objectives of Sino-Russian regional military alliance is to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair. Thus, military intervention by foreign countries means aggression.
Russia has firmly kept a position that Taiwan is an integral part of China. Russia confirmed that its position remained unchanged in early June. [2]
Therefore, the text of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty can include statements that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
In addition, immediately after the conclusion of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty, Beijing and Moscow can declare and demand, together with BRICS plus and ASEAN and other Asian & African countries, that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified because, if Taiwan declares independence or the US formally treats Taiwan as an independent country, China will surely intervene militarily to stop it and a military conflict will start between China and Taiwan/the US.
As is seen in Ukraine crisis, a regional crisis will have a devastating effects to the world economy. Especially, if China is involved in a military conflict in the East Asia, its negative impact on the world economy would be destructive.
Thus, Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is the only choice not only for China but Russia, BRICS plus, ASEAN and Asian & African countries as well.
If China and Russia forms a regional military alliance in Asia, Japan would be frightened and awed. Japan would not want to even think about fighting against both China and Russia at the same time because it is obvious that Japan would be totally overwhelmed and destroyed. It is Japan’s worst nightmare.
Looking back its history, Japanese Imperial army was overwhelmingly defeated by the Soviet Union’s mechanized Red Army in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939. Also, at the ending days of the Second World War, the Red Army completely defeated and annihilated Japanese Imperial army in Manchukuo. Ever since these battles, Japan has had a military inferiority complex against Russia.
Frightened and awed by Sino-Russian regional military alliance, Japan would walk away from QUAD. Then, QUAD minus Japan will become dysfunctional and cease to exist.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is advocating that Japan should increase its defense budget to the level of 2% of GDP to counter and attack China. He will be forced to disappear politically by the Japanese people.
South Korea will be frightened too. South Korea will publicly declare that it will never fight or provoke China or Russia.
Even the US would become hesitant on or even abandon an idea of intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
Seeing that Japan, South Korea and the US retreat and walk away, Taiwan people will realize that they have no choice but seek for a peaceful reunification with China. Taiwan crisis will be averted.
4. Probable India’s position toward Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Incidentally, India may oppose China and Russia’s forming regional military alliance in Asia because of its historical rivalry against China.
So, Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty would need to include an explicit and clear statement of assurance that it will never be directed against India.
Also, just like the CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia and Central Asian countries), the Sino-Russian regional military alliance should be under the framework of the SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) where China, Russia and India are formal members.
5. Future Geographical Expansion of Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
In the future, Sino-Russian regional military alliance can be expanded to the Arctic region too so that oil & gas resources there and Arctic shipping-routes can be protected effectively.
Under the geographically expanded military alliance treaty, China may have a naval base in Russian coast in the Arctic region, from which China’s strategic nuclear submarines would operate, holding the US and Europe within the range of nuclear ballistic missiles. From the Arctic Sea, ballistic missiles reach the US and Europe in 15 minutes.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
