China and Russia can form a regional military alliance geographically limited to Asia, which will supplement each other effectively and enhance overall security of both China and Russia.
1. Background
In recent years, the US treats Taiwan more and more as if it were an independent country despite the US’s repeated assurance that it is committed to a One China policy. US high ranking officials and members of the Congress visit Taiwan. The US announced that it would further deepen economic ties with Taiwan. The US keeps supplying weapons to Taiwan.
The US formulated an anti-China security pact called AUKUS in which the US and UK help Australia acquire nuclear submarines.
The US formulated QUAD in which the US, Japan, Australia and India cooperate to contain China.
NATO openly announced that it was planning to be expanded to Asia to contain China militarily.
The US is planning to deploy intermediate-range missiles along the so-called first island chain extending from Japanese islands, Taiwan through Philippines islands, which will threaten security of both China and Russia.
US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken keep making provocative comments and statements including Biden’s responding affirmatively when asked if the US would intervene militarily in Taiwan crisis, which the White House downplayed later.
2. Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Even under these critical circumstances, unlimited Sino-Russia complete military alliance is difficult. There are oppositions inside China. China does not want to get involved in conflicts in Europe. China does not want to damage her trade relations with European countries. Actually, Chinese military forces don’t have a structure or equipments to support Russia militarily in Europe.
In contrast, however, if the military alliance is geographically limited to Asia, cooperation between China and Russia will be very effective. China and Russia can enter the formal treaty of regional military alliance geographically limited to Asia.
China wants Russian military support to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening in Taiwan crisis.
Russia has excellent hypersonic weapons including Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles against which the US has no defense.
Russia and China have hypersonic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles which the US and NATO don’t have. The US and NATO have no defense against hypersonic weapons.
Russian Submarine fleets are very reliable and lethal sea-power against the US Navy. Russia’s anti-submarine warfare capability will be very helpful for China.
Russia is deploying Sarmat ballistic missiles which have the Fractional Orbital Bombardment (FOBS) capability. Unlike ordinary ICBMs that fly at the altitude of as high as 1200km , Sarmat flies at as low as 150km. Thus, it evades SBIRS and radar scan. US missile defense can never intercept it.
As for Russia, Russia doesn’t want to keep lots of forces in Asia as it wants to concentrate on the European theater. Sino-Russian regional military alliance will enable Russia to free up military forces such as infantry, tanks and armored vehicles in Asia and redeploy them to Europe.
Economically, China is expected to invest in Siberia and other Asian regions of Russia in the coming decades. Therefore, Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance in Asia will protect Sino-Russian economic interests as well.
Actually, military cooperation between China and Russia is active, growing and increasing in Asia.
In August 2021, a joint military exercise between China and Russia, called ZAPAD/INTERACTION-2021, was conducted in northwest China's Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
The joint military exercise was attended by more than 10,000 service personnel and main battle armaments, including aircraft, artillery and armored vehicles. [1]
In October 2021, the fleet of Chinese and Russian 10 war ships with support ships conducted a joint naval patrol, which sailed from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean, passing through the Tsugaru strait, then sailed southward along the Japanese mainland and returned to the East China Sea, passing through the Osumi strait. The Chinese and Russian fleet sailed around the entire Japanese main islands.
In May 2022, Chinese and Russian nuclear capable bombers conducted a joint patrol over the Sea of Japan exactly when US President Biden was visiting Japan and having a QUAD meeting in Tokyo together with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Modi and Australian Prime Minister Albanese.
To ensure security of China and Russia, the geographical scope of Sino-Russian regional military alliance in Asia would reach the international date line to the east, the Bering Strait to the north, the Antarctica to the south, and Myanmar, Central Asia and the Ural Mountains to the west.
3. Deterring Effects of Sino-Russian Regional Alliance on Taiwan Crisis
One of the most important objectives of Sino-Russian regional military alliance is to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair. Thus, military intervention by foreign countries means aggression.
Russia has firmly kept a position that Taiwan is an integral part of China. Russia confirmed that its position remained unchanged in early June. [2]
Therefore, the text of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty can include statements that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
In addition, immediately after the conclusion of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty, Beijing and Moscow can declare and demand, together with BRICS plus and ASEAN and other Asian & African countries, that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified because, if Taiwan declares independence or the US formally treats Taiwan as an independent country, China will surely intervene militarily to stop it and a military conflict will start between China and Taiwan/the US.
As is seen in Ukraine crisis, a regional crisis will have a devastating effects to the world economy. Especially, if China is involved in a military conflict in the East Asia, its negative impact on the world economy would be destructive.
Thus, Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is the only choice not only for China but Russia, BRICS plus, ASEAN and Asian & African countries as well.
If China and Russia forms a regional military alliance in Asia, Japan would be frightened and awed. Japan would not want to even think about fighting against both China and Russia at the same time because it is obvious that Japan would be totally overwhelmed and destroyed. It is Japan’s worst nightmare.
Looking back its history, Japanese Imperial army was overwhelmingly defeated by the Soviet Union’s mechanized Red Army in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939. Also, at the ending days of the Second World War, the Red Army completely defeated and annihilated Japanese Imperial army in Manchukuo. Ever since these battles, Japan has had a military inferiority complex against Russia.
Frightened and awed by Sino-Russian regional military alliance, Japan would walk away from QUAD. Then, QUAD minus Japan will become dysfunctional and cease to exist.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is advocating that Japan should increase its defense budget to the level of 2% of GDP to counter and attack China. He will be forced to disappear politically by the Japanese people.
South Korea will be frightened too. South Korea will publicly declare that it will never fight or provoke China or Russia.
Even the US would become hesitant on or even abandon an idea of intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
Seeing that Japan, South Korea and the US retreat and walk away, Taiwan people will realize that they have no choice but seek for a peaceful reunification with China. Taiwan crisis will be averted.
4. Probable India’s position toward Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Incidentally, India may oppose China and Russia’s forming regional military alliance in Asia because of its historical rivalry against China.
So, Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty would need to include an explicit and clear statement of assurance that it will never be directed against India.
Also, just like the CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia and Central Asian countries), the Sino-Russian regional military alliance should be under the framework of the SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) where China, Russia and India are formal members.
5. Future Geographical Expansion of Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
In the future, Sino-Russian regional military alliance can be expanded to the Arctic region too so that oil & gas resources there and Arctic shipping-routes can be protected effectively.
Under the geographically expanded military alliance treaty, China may have a naval base in Russian coast in the Arctic region, from which China’s strategic nuclear submarines would operate, holding the US and Europe within the range of nuclear ballistic missiles. From the Arctic Sea, ballistic missiles reach the US and Europe in 15 minutes.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "A look back at China-Russia strategic military exercise", August 16th 2021, CGTN
(2) "Russia's position on Taiwan as integral part of China remains unchanged, says diplomat", June 3rd 2022, TASS
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
1. Background
In recent years, the US treats Taiwan more and more as if it were an independent country despite the US’s repeated assurance that it is committed to a One China policy. US high ranking officials and members of the Congress visit Taiwan. The US announced that it would further deepen economic ties with Taiwan. The US keeps supplying weapons to Taiwan.
The US formulated an anti-China security pact called AUKUS in which the US and UK help Australia acquire nuclear submarines.
The US formulated QUAD in which the US, Japan, Australia and India cooperate to contain China.
NATO openly announced that it was planning to be expanded to Asia to contain China militarily.
The US is planning to deploy intermediate-range missiles along the so-called first island chain extending from Japanese islands, Taiwan through Philippines islands, which will threaten security of both China and Russia.
US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken keep making provocative comments and statements including Biden’s responding affirmatively when asked if the US would intervene militarily in Taiwan crisis, which the White House downplayed later.
2. Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Even under these critical circumstances, unlimited Sino-Russia complete military alliance is difficult. There are oppositions inside China. China does not want to get involved in conflicts in Europe. China does not want to damage her trade relations with European countries. Actually, Chinese military forces don’t have a structure or equipments to support Russia militarily in Europe.
In contrast, however, if the military alliance is geographically limited to Asia, cooperation between China and Russia will be very effective. China and Russia can enter the formal treaty of regional military alliance geographically limited to Asia.
China wants Russian military support to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening in Taiwan crisis.
Russia has excellent hypersonic weapons including Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles against which the US has no defense.
Russia and China have hypersonic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles which the US and NATO don’t have. The US and NATO have no defense against hypersonic weapons.
Russian Submarine fleets are very reliable and lethal sea-power against the US Navy. Russia’s anti-submarine warfare capability will be very helpful for China.
Russia is deploying Sarmat ballistic missiles which have the Fractional Orbital Bombardment (FOBS) capability. Unlike ordinary ICBMs that fly at the altitude of as high as 1200km , Sarmat flies at as low as 150km. Thus, it evades SBIRS and radar scan. US missile defense can never intercept it.
As for Russia, Russia doesn’t want to keep lots of forces in Asia as it wants to concentrate on the European theater. Sino-Russian regional military alliance will enable Russia to free up military forces such as infantry, tanks and armored vehicles in Asia and redeploy them to Europe.
Economically, China is expected to invest in Siberia and other Asian regions of Russia in the coming decades. Therefore, Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance in Asia will protect Sino-Russian economic interests as well.
Actually, military cooperation between China and Russia is active, growing and increasing in Asia.
In August 2021, a joint military exercise between China and Russia, called ZAPAD/INTERACTION-2021, was conducted in northwest China's Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
The joint military exercise was attended by more than 10,000 service personnel and main battle armaments, including aircraft, artillery and armored vehicles. [1]
In October 2021, the fleet of Chinese and Russian 10 war ships with support ships conducted a joint naval patrol, which sailed from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean, passing through the Tsugaru strait, then sailed southward along the Japanese mainland and returned to the East China Sea, passing through the Osumi strait. The Chinese and Russian fleet sailed around the entire Japanese main islands.
In May 2022, Chinese and Russian nuclear capable bombers conducted a joint patrol over the Sea of Japan exactly when US President Biden was visiting Japan and having a QUAD meeting in Tokyo together with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Modi and Australian Prime Minister Albanese.
To ensure security of China and Russia, the geographical scope of Sino-Russian regional military alliance in Asia would reach the international date line to the east, the Bering Strait to the north, the Antarctica to the south, and Myanmar, Central Asia and the Ural Mountains to the west.
3. Deterring Effects of Sino-Russian Regional Alliance on Taiwan Crisis
One of the most important objectives of Sino-Russian regional military alliance is to deter and prevent the US, Japan, Australia and NATO from intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair. Thus, military intervention by foreign countries means aggression.
Russia has firmly kept a position that Taiwan is an integral part of China. Russia confirmed that its position remained unchanged in early June. [2]
Therefore, the text of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty can include statements that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
In addition, immediately after the conclusion of Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty, Beijing and Moscow can declare and demand, together with BRICS plus and ASEAN and other Asian & African countries, that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified.
China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified because, if Taiwan declares independence or the US formally treats Taiwan as an independent country, China will surely intervene militarily to stop it and a military conflict will start between China and Taiwan/the US.
As is seen in Ukraine crisis, a regional crisis will have a devastating effects to the world economy. Especially, if China is involved in a military conflict in the East Asia, its negative impact on the world economy would be destructive.
Thus, Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is the only choice not only for China but Russia, BRICS plus, ASEAN and Asian & African countries as well.
If China and Russia forms a regional military alliance in Asia, Japan would be frightened and awed. Japan would not want to even think about fighting against both China and Russia at the same time because it is obvious that Japan would be totally overwhelmed and destroyed. It is Japan’s worst nightmare.
Looking back its history, Japanese Imperial army was overwhelmingly defeated by the Soviet Union’s mechanized Red Army in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939. Also, at the ending days of the Second World War, the Red Army completely defeated and annihilated Japanese Imperial army in Manchukuo. Ever since these battles, Japan has had a military inferiority complex against Russia.
Frightened and awed by Sino-Russian regional military alliance, Japan would walk away from QUAD. Then, QUAD minus Japan will become dysfunctional and cease to exist.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is advocating that Japan should increase its defense budget to the level of 2% of GDP to counter and attack China. He will be forced to disappear politically by the Japanese people.
South Korea will be frightened too. South Korea will publicly declare that it will never fight or provoke China or Russia.
Even the US would become hesitant on or even abandon an idea of intervening militarily in Taiwan crisis.
Seeing that Japan, South Korea and the US retreat and walk away, Taiwan people will realize that they have no choice but seek for a peaceful reunification with China. Taiwan crisis will be averted.
4. Probable India’s position toward Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
Incidentally, India may oppose China and Russia’s forming regional military alliance in Asia because of its historical rivalry against China.
So, Sino-Russian regional military alliance treaty would need to include an explicit and clear statement of assurance that it will never be directed against India.
Also, just like the CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia and Central Asian countries), the Sino-Russian regional military alliance should be under the framework of the SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) where China, Russia and India are formal members.
5. Future Geographical Expansion of Sino-Russian Regional Military Alliance
In the future, Sino-Russian regional military alliance can be expanded to the Arctic region too so that oil & gas resources there and Arctic shipping-routes can be protected effectively.
Under the geographically expanded military alliance treaty, China may have a naval base in Russian coast in the Arctic region, from which China’s strategic nuclear submarines would operate, holding the US and Europe within the range of nuclear ballistic missiles. From the Arctic Sea, ballistic missiles reach the US and Europe in 15 minutes.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "A look back at China-Russia strategic military exercise", August 16th 2021, CGTN
(2) "Russia's position on Taiwan as integral part of China remains unchanged, says diplomat", June 3rd 2022, TASS
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.