In late March, it was reported that Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, the most prominent pro-China politician in Japan and former Secretary General of Liberal Democratic party (LDP), would assume a position of a chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association that is an association of pro-China members of the Japanese Parliament.
It is likely that Japan will have a political structure of dual power in the coming months - (I) "pro-China power" represented by the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association in the Japanese Parliament and (II) "pro-US power" represented by the Japanese Cabinet - just like Russia of 1917 where the dual power of the Soviets, particularly the Petrograd Soviet, and the Russian Provisional Government was existing during the time period between the February Revolution and the October Revolution.
[Alexander Kerensky who led the Russian Provisional Government and Vladimir Lenin who led the communist Bolshevik and called for "All Power to the Soviets"]
And, just like the Soviets led by Vladimir Lenin overwhelmed the Russian Provisional Government led by Alexander Kerensky, the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association led by Mr. Nikai will eventually overwhelm the Japanese Cabinet led by PM Kishida.
[Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan (left) and Toshihiro Nikai, a chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Currently, the Japanese Cabinet is under the control of the US because PM Kishida is completely obedient to the US government.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has become a prime minister, thanks to receiving support from the US as he publicly promised that he would remove from a position of LDP Secretary General Mr. Toshihiro Nikai who is pro-China. In addition, after becoming a prime minister, PM Kishida was constantly threatened by the US with the Unification Church scandal. So, he has become completely obedient to the US.
[Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden]
Accordingly, PM Kishida has decided that Japan should possess offensive weapons, violating Japan's pacifist constitution. He has also decided to double Japan's defense budget and, for that purpose, to impose tax increase. The US government praised PM Kishida very much.
The Japanese government is going to develop long-range cruise missiles and procure Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. New missile bases have been constructed along the Ryukyu Islands of Okinawa Prefecture including Ishigaki-jima island that is located only 300 kilometers to the east of Taiwan.
The US is trying to use Japan as a proxy to attack China in Taiwan crisis just like it is using Ukraine as a proxy to attack Russia.
On the other hand, in contrast, the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association will function as a bridge between China and Japan and an iron-bastion of pro-China Japanese politicians and pro-China Japanese businesses. The association is consisted of pro-China members of the Japanese Parliament from both ruling parties and opposition parties.
[In 2019, members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association visited China and met with Tang Jiaxuan, president of the China-Japan Friendship Association and former Chinese foreign minister (center)]
The origin of the association dates back to 1952 when the Japan-China Trade Facilitation Parliamentary Association had been formed by multi-partisan members of the Japanese Parliament, which contributed to normalization of China and Japan of 1972. In 1973, it was renamed into the current one. Since then, the association has been contributing to friendly relations between China and Japan mainly in economic area. And, now, it is becoming "the" most important organization for China-Japan relations with having Mr. Nikai as a chairman.
Actually, as a matter of fact, the dual power in Japan has been existing for years. Under PM Shinzo Abe and PM Yoshihide Suga, Mr. Nikai was Secretary General of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) from 2016 to 2021. As the top official of the ruling party, Mr. Nikai worked very hard to facilitate better relations between China and Japan while PM Abe and PM Suga tended to be obedient to the US.
[Mr. Toshiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2017]
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [1]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
In 2020, CSIS (The Center for Strategic and International Studies), one of the most influential US think-tanks, published a report in which Mr. Nikai was criticized that he was promoting China-Japan relations in cooperating China's Belt and Road Initiative with trampling the US interests. [2]
So, the US decided to remove Mr. Nikai from the position of Secretary General of LDP by supporting Mr. Fumio Kishida who pledged that he would remove Mr. Nikai.
The US believed that, as PM Kishida had removed Mr. Nikai from the position of LDP Secretary General in 2021, Mr. Nikai's pro-China power would disappear.
But, the US was wrong.
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful political apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai is planning to visit China in June. When he visits China, he will take with him dozens of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons from manufacturing industries, financial industries, transportation industries, IT industries, tourism industries and so on.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [3]
When he visits china in June, Mr. Nikai will meet with President Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping will welcome him and dozens of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as well as thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons.
And, President Xi Jinping will emphasize People-First Principle and the power of the people.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Yi, Senior Chinese diplomat too.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister (at that time)]
Also, Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee.
Mr. Wang Huning is the No.4 of CPC and the top of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC, Chinese: 中国人民政治协商会议), which is a supreme political advisory body in the People's Republic of China.
[Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee (right), when he met with Andrew Hsia, vice chairman of KMT of Taiwan, in Beijing in February 2023]
After the meeting with President Xi Jinping, Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Wang Huning, Mr. Nikai will make a joint statement together with Mr. Wang Yi or Mr. Wang Huning in which followings will be confirmed.
- the importance of the People-First principle
- Japan's adherence to One-China principle
- the importance of Non-Interference in a nation's internal affairs
- recognition that peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is pursued and supported while China reserves the option of taking all measures necessary
- recognition that it is already the multipolar world
- the importance of preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity
- promoting equal win-win relations
- facilitating digital economy
The bright prospect of economic relations between China and Japan and peace in East Asia will contribute to the better relations between the two countries and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Furthermore, during his visit to China in June, Mr. Nikai will negotiate with Chinese leadership on release of a Japanese businessman who is now in custody in China, being charged with espionage.
Mr. Nikai will succeed in the negotiation and return together with a released Japanese businessman, which will make Mr. Nikai a hero and boost his popularity among the Japanese people.
The Japanese people have a tendency to enthusiastically praise a politician who succeeds in releasing a Japanese person or persons from custody in a foreign country.
[Japanese persons who were released from detention in North Korea and returned to Japan in 2002]
For instance, in 2002, PM Jyunichiro Koizumi's popularity was boosted when he visited North Korea, negotiated and succeeded in recovering Japanese persons who had been in detention in North Korea. It helped PM Koizumi to consolidate his political power.
Likewise, after his visit to China in coming June and recovering a Japanese businessman in custody, Mr. Nikai's political power will be boosted and consolidated significantly.
In politics, power attracts more power.
So, it is possible that, after June, many LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would join Mr. Nikai's faction. In addition, some opposition parties' members of the Japanese Parliament could leave their parties and join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Then, pressures within LDP and from the Japanese people that call for PM Kishida to resign will increase very much. PM Kishida's approval rate is as low as around 30% in polls even today.
[The Kishida administration's approval rate was as low as 26.5% as of January 2023]
Under the pressures, even a small wrong comment of PM Kishida or a single defeat in a by-election could trigger a resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet.
Or, as some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament is a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker. He might pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next prime minister since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people for his frank and untraditional style. Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he and his cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who would make him a prime minister.
The new PM and his cabinet would be pro-China. Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China would be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new PM and his cabinet would declare that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them. This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis without using US military bases in Japan.
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan. Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP.
Incidentally, in case Mr. Nikai's faction should have a difficulty to be most influential in LDP even after his visit to China in June, it is possible for Mr. Nikai to form a new pro-China political party based upon the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association. In that event, the Komei-to party that is pro-China will sever relations with LDP and support the new pro-China party in a general election. Without support of the Komei-to party, LDP will lose badly in the election.
According to polls, currently, approximately 70% of the Japanese people answer that they have no party they can support. The Japanese people will find a path to the peace and bright future in the new pro-China party and cast huge ballots for it. After a victory in the election, the new pro-China party and the Komei-to party can form a pro-China coalition government together.
The US would try to counter by supporting anti-China parties such as the Nippon Ishin no Kai and Democratic Party For the People (DPFP). The US may stage false flag events such as crush of a Japanese warplane and sinking of a Japanese warship to blame China. Or, the US may even try to assassinate pro-China Japanese politicians and stage a coup in Japan. But, all of these will fail in the face of tens of millions of Japanese business persons supporting pro-China politicians and tens of millions of the Japanese people seeking for peace.
Under a new pro-China Japanese PM and his cabinet, Japan would be able to avoid joining intervention in Taiwan crisis, and Japan's economy would grow drastically in such critical areas as EVs, clean energies, digital economy, aerospace assemblies, consumer goods and so on, cooperating and having win-win relations with China.
Thank you.
References:
(1) 「習主席が『二階3000人訪中団』に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(2) China’s Influence in Japan: Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular, July 2020, CSIS
(3) "重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告"、２０２３年２月２日、サンデー毎日２月１２日号
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
It is likely that Japan will have a political structure of dual power in the coming months - (I) "pro-China power" represented by the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association in the Japanese Parliament and (II) "pro-US power" represented by the Japanese Cabinet - just like Russia of 1917 where the dual power of the Soviets, particularly the Petrograd Soviet, and the Russian Provisional Government was existing during the time period between the February Revolution and the October Revolution.
[Alexander Kerensky who led the Russian Provisional Government and Vladimir Lenin who led the communist Bolshevik and called for "All Power to the Soviets"]
And, just like the Soviets led by Vladimir Lenin overwhelmed the Russian Provisional Government led by Alexander Kerensky, the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association led by Mr. Nikai will eventually overwhelm the Japanese Cabinet led by PM Kishida.
[Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan (left) and Toshihiro Nikai, a chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Currently, the Japanese Cabinet is under the control of the US because PM Kishida is completely obedient to the US government.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has become a prime minister, thanks to receiving support from the US as he publicly promised that he would remove from a position of LDP Secretary General Mr. Toshihiro Nikai who is pro-China. In addition, after becoming a prime minister, PM Kishida was constantly threatened by the US with the Unification Church scandal. So, he has become completely obedient to the US.
[Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden]
Accordingly, PM Kishida has decided that Japan should possess offensive weapons, violating Japan's pacifist constitution. He has also decided to double Japan's defense budget and, for that purpose, to impose tax increase. The US government praised PM Kishida very much.
The Japanese government is going to develop long-range cruise missiles and procure Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. New missile bases have been constructed along the Ryukyu Islands of Okinawa Prefecture including Ishigaki-jima island that is located only 300 kilometers to the east of Taiwan.
The US is trying to use Japan as a proxy to attack China in Taiwan crisis just like it is using Ukraine as a proxy to attack Russia.
On the other hand, in contrast, the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association will function as a bridge between China and Japan and an iron-bastion of pro-China Japanese politicians and pro-China Japanese businesses. The association is consisted of pro-China members of the Japanese Parliament from both ruling parties and opposition parties.
[In 2019, members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association visited China and met with Tang Jiaxuan, president of the China-Japan Friendship Association and former Chinese foreign minister (center)]
The origin of the association dates back to 1952 when the Japan-China Trade Facilitation Parliamentary Association had been formed by multi-partisan members of the Japanese Parliament, which contributed to normalization of China and Japan of 1972. In 1973, it was renamed into the current one. Since then, the association has been contributing to friendly relations between China and Japan mainly in economic area. And, now, it is becoming "the" most important organization for China-Japan relations with having Mr. Nikai as a chairman.
Actually, as a matter of fact, the dual power in Japan has been existing for years. Under PM Shinzo Abe and PM Yoshihide Suga, Mr. Nikai was Secretary General of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) from 2016 to 2021. As the top official of the ruling party, Mr. Nikai worked very hard to facilitate better relations between China and Japan while PM Abe and PM Suga tended to be obedient to the US.
[Mr. Toshiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2017]
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [1]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
In 2020, CSIS (The Center for Strategic and International Studies), one of the most influential US think-tanks, published a report in which Mr. Nikai was criticized that he was promoting China-Japan relations in cooperating China's Belt and Road Initiative with trampling the US interests. [2]
So, the US decided to remove Mr. Nikai from the position of Secretary General of LDP by supporting Mr. Fumio Kishida who pledged that he would remove Mr. Nikai.
The US believed that, as PM Kishida had removed Mr. Nikai from the position of LDP Secretary General in 2021, Mr. Nikai's pro-China power would disappear.
But, the US was wrong.
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful political apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai is planning to visit China in June. When he visits China, he will take with him dozens of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons from manufacturing industries, financial industries, transportation industries, IT industries, tourism industries and so on.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [3]
When he visits china in June, Mr. Nikai will meet with President Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping will welcome him and dozens of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as well as thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons.
And, President Xi Jinping will emphasize People-First Principle and the power of the people.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Yi, Senior Chinese diplomat too.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister (at that time)]
Also, Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee.
Mr. Wang Huning is the No.4 of CPC and the top of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC, Chinese: 中国人民政治协商会议), which is a supreme political advisory body in the People's Republic of China.
[Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee (right), when he met with Andrew Hsia, vice chairman of KMT of Taiwan, in Beijing in February 2023]
After the meeting with President Xi Jinping, Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Wang Huning, Mr. Nikai will make a joint statement together with Mr. Wang Yi or Mr. Wang Huning in which followings will be confirmed.
- the importance of the People-First principle
- Japan's adherence to One-China principle
- the importance of Non-Interference in a nation's internal affairs
- recognition that peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is pursued and supported while China reserves the option of taking all measures necessary
- recognition that it is already the multipolar world
- the importance of preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity
- promoting equal win-win relations
- facilitating digital economy
The bright prospect of economic relations between China and Japan and peace in East Asia will contribute to the better relations between the two countries and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Furthermore, during his visit to China in June, Mr. Nikai will negotiate with Chinese leadership on release of a Japanese businessman who is now in custody in China, being charged with espionage.
Mr. Nikai will succeed in the negotiation and return together with a released Japanese businessman, which will make Mr. Nikai a hero and boost his popularity among the Japanese people.
The Japanese people have a tendency to enthusiastically praise a politician who succeeds in releasing a Japanese person or persons from custody in a foreign country.
[Japanese persons who were released from detention in North Korea and returned to Japan in 2002]
For instance, in 2002, PM Jyunichiro Koizumi's popularity was boosted when he visited North Korea, negotiated and succeeded in recovering Japanese persons who had been in detention in North Korea. It helped PM Koizumi to consolidate his political power.
Likewise, after his visit to China in coming June and recovering a Japanese businessman in custody, Mr. Nikai's political power will be boosted and consolidated significantly.
In politics, power attracts more power.
So, it is possible that, after June, many LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would join Mr. Nikai's faction. In addition, some opposition parties' members of the Japanese Parliament could leave their parties and join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Then, pressures within LDP and from the Japanese people that call for PM Kishida to resign will increase very much. PM Kishida's approval rate is as low as around 30% in polls even today.
[The Kishida administration's approval rate was as low as 26.5% as of January 2023]
Under the pressures, even a small wrong comment of PM Kishida or a single defeat in a by-election could trigger a resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet.
Or, as some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament is a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker. He might pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next prime minister since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people for his frank and untraditional style. Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he and his cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who would make him a prime minister.
The new PM and his cabinet would be pro-China. Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China would be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new PM and his cabinet would declare that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them. This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis without using US military bases in Japan.
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan. Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP.
Incidentally, in case Mr. Nikai's faction should have a difficulty to be most influential in LDP even after his visit to China in June, it is possible for Mr. Nikai to form a new pro-China political party based upon the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association. In that event, the Komei-to party that is pro-China will sever relations with LDP and support the new pro-China party in a general election. Without support of the Komei-to party, LDP will lose badly in the election.
According to polls, currently, approximately 70% of the Japanese people answer that they have no party they can support. The Japanese people will find a path to the peace and bright future in the new pro-China party and cast huge ballots for it. After a victory in the election, the new pro-China party and the Komei-to party can form a pro-China coalition government together.
The US would try to counter by supporting anti-China parties such as the Nippon Ishin no Kai and Democratic Party For the People (DPFP). The US may stage false flag events such as crush of a Japanese warplane and sinking of a Japanese warship to blame China. Or, the US may even try to assassinate pro-China Japanese politicians and stage a coup in Japan. But, all of these will fail in the face of tens of millions of Japanese business persons supporting pro-China politicians and tens of millions of the Japanese people seeking for peace.
Under a new pro-China Japanese PM and his cabinet, Japan would be able to avoid joining intervention in Taiwan crisis, and Japan's economy would grow drastically in such critical areas as EVs, clean energies, digital economy, aerospace assemblies, consumer goods and so on, cooperating and having win-win relations with China.
Thank you.
References:
(1) 「習主席が『二階3000人訪中団』に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(2) China’s Influence in Japan: Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular, July 2020, CSIS
(3) "重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告"、２０２３年２月２日、サンデー毎日２月１２日号
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.