1. Cornered and desperate situation of the West's capitalism

China is people first and seeks peace. The US is money first and seeks wars because the US is not a liberal democracy anymore but the military industrial complex with parasite population attached around it.

As exemplified by Ukraine proxy war and silly balloon incidents, the West's foreign national security policies have gone crazy. This is because the West's capitalists are cornered and desperate. They know China will overwhelm the West in every aspect within a decade. Their time is running out.




China is already the largest manufacturing country in the world in such items as cars, EVs, PCs, home appliances, steel, solar modules, wind turbines and so on.

China is surpassing the US in state of art technologies too such as 5G, 6G, IoT, AI, Big data, self-driving cars and space technologies.

China will dominate 5G/6G race against the US and EU, which means China will dominate not only manufacturing but financial and service businesses as well.





China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) already has more warships than the US and the gap is expanding every year. China has hypersonic missiles that the US is still struggling to develop.







Above all, local currencies such as Chinese Yuan is replacing US dollar. US dollar will soon lose its dominant status as international currency and reserve currency.



China will overwhelm the US in every aspect within a decade, and once overwhelmed, the US will never recover its hegemonic status ever again.

Under these circumstances, the US seems to have determined or rather be forced to have determined to start a war against China in 2025.


2. Taiwan presidential election of 2024 and US war against China of 2025

It is likely that the US's war against China will start in Taiwan in 2025.

In January, US military general's memo was leaked presumably not by accident, in which he predicted a Taiwan war would break out in 2025. The US wants to incite the American people and get them prepared for a war against China.


[General Mike Minihan of US Air Force's memo was leaked presumably not by accident]


How is the situation in Taiwan?

Having watched the devastating destruction of Ukraine and its miserable blackouts, Taiwan people have finally noticed that US puppet President Tsai Ing-wen and US proxy DPP will only lead Taiwan into destruction just like Zelensky and the Kiev neo-Nazi regime lead Ukraine into destruction.

Accordingly, in local elections of 2022, anti-China DPP candidates were defeated by pro-China KMT candidates. Tsai Ing-wen was forced to resign as a DPP party leader.



Scared by Ukraine War, Taiwan people will likely elect a pro-China KMT candidate as its president in the next presidential election of January 2024. An elected KMT Taiwan president will facilitate and accomplish a peaceful reunification with China irrevocably.


[Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee (right), met with Andrew Hsia, vice chairman of KMT, in Beijing in February 2023]


But, under the instruction and order of the US, an anti-China DPP candidate will refuse to accept the election result. He will insist that the election was rigged.

Then, the US would intervene diplomatically, treating a DPP candidate as a president of Taiwan, and make him declare Taiwan independence.

China's Anti-Secession Act of 2005 provides that, if major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, China shall employ military means. [1]

By making a DPP presidential candidate declare Taiwan independence, the US would try to let China fire the first shot.

However, China would ignore a DPP candidate's declaring Taiwan independence, saying it's phony and thus null and void.


Next, the US may mobilize Taiwan military force to stage a coup in order to prevent an elected KMT candidate from accomplishing a peaceful reunification between China and Taiwan. CIA officers and US military personnel stationed in Taiwan will implement the plot.

As mentioned above, the defeated DPP candidate will refuse to accept the election result. He will insist that the election was rigged.

Supporters of the defeated DPP candidate will flock and assault the Taiwan Parliament building. They will cause unrest in various parts of Taiwan and clash with KMT supporters.



Then, claiming that peace and order should be restored, Taiwan military force may stage a coup and seize power, suspending the presidency and the parliament.



The military regime will arrest and put into custody prominent KMT politicians and major KMT supporters.

This is business as usual for the US. For example, the US plotted and carried out a coup in Iran in 1965 and in Chile in 1973, ousting democratically elected leaders and set up pro-US regimes.


However, a coup to oust an elected KMT candidate would likely be aborted. The majority of population would oppose the coup. Some or most of Taiwan military troops would challenge the legitimacy of the coup and even fight against the coup troops.

In case a coup should be accomplished in Taiwan, China will condemn the military regime together with Russia, BRICS plus, Asian, African, Central & South American and Pacific island countries. They will make a condemning resolution at the United Nations, demanding the restoration of the KMT government.



China, together with Russia, BRICS plus, Asian, African, Central & South American and Pacific island countries, may impose economic sanctions to the military regime of Taiwan. As Taiwan is a part of China, it will not be an interference in other nation's internal affairs.

China may possibly attempt a counter-coup. As Taiwan is a part of China, it will not be construed as an interference in other nation's internal affairs.

Furthermore, China may impose naval blockade against Taiwan together with Russia to apply pressure to the military regime. As Taiwan's strategic petroleum stockpile will run out in only two weeks, the military regime would surrender.



However, the US may send oil tankers guarded by US warships to supply oil to Taiwan and try to break the China and Russia's naval blockade.





Under any circumstances, China will refrain from making the first shot to avoid breaking out of a military conflict.

Therefore, the US would likely stage a false-flag operation to draw China into a war.

In 2003, the US started Iraq War based upon a false claim on Iraq's possession of WMD.

Now, the US is calling China's meteorological balloon as a spy balloon and has shot it down, trying to smear China.

Even if China refrains from taking military actions, there are many ways of false-flag operations that US would employ to draw China into a war in 2025.

For example, the US may sink its own warship in Taiwan strait and claim it as an attack by China.



This is the method the US has been using repeatedly. Looking back in the history, the US detonated its own warship USS Maine in Havana Harbor in 1898 to use it as a pretext to start a war against Spain claiming that the ship was torpedoed by Spain although Spain's investigation came to a contrary conclusion that the explosion had originated within the ship. [2]



The US would claim that it is going to wage a defensive war and would attack China together with UK, Australia and NATO forces.

Actually, the US, UK, and Australia were already doing military exercises with fighter jets in the Nevada desert in February 2023 as a rehearsal for war against China. [3]


[A US Navy EA-18G and RAF Eurofighter Typhoons during the training exercise in the Nevada desert, February 2023]


In January, CSIS, the US think-tank, published a simulation on US-China war over Taiwan. It includes so many fake-information and wishful thinking. It has lots of shortcomings such as ignoring the possibility of Russian support for China and China's determination to accomplish a reunification with Taiwan at any cost. [4]

In the event of US and NATO military intervention, China will repulse and defeat the aggressors completely. China will carry out the mission at any cost. And, Russia will support China militarily.

Firstly, China will destroy US military satellites at LEO, GEO and HEO including GPS satellites, which will make US military forces as primitive as those of WW2 level.



Secondly, China will destroy all of US military bases in Japan completely by her ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, which will make the US and NATO forces unable to replenish for continuous military operations.





Thirdly, China will sink US aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers by her ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. China and Russia's ASW will sink US and NATO's submarines. S-400s that China imported from Russia will shoot down F-35s and Eurofighters.



Fourthly, although CSIS's Taiwan War simulation wishfully assumes that the war will be limited to East Asia, of course such will not be the case. China's powerful cyberattack will paralyze and destroy the US mainland's power grids, banking systems, communication networks, oil & gas pipelines and so on.



Finally, but not least, China's sabotage will destroy the US mainland's military facilities including naval bases, shipyards, air force bases, space rocket launch pads, ammunition dumps, arsenal, defense industries' factories and so on.


[A fire accident of USS Bonhomme Richard of July 2020]

In the process, China may suffer tens of thousands of casualties. But, China will accomplish the mission to protect her national sovereignty and territorial integrity at any cost.

Back in 1950, China suffered as many as two hundred thousands casualties in Korean War. But, China continued fighting and defended North Korea's national sovereignty and territorial integrity. There is no doubt that China will accomplish the mission of defending Taiwan to protect China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity at any cost.


3. A possibility of the advent of pro-China government in Japan

Facing the looming probability of Taiwan war, how the Japanese people would react?

The Japanese people are cynical population. They would calculate the pros and cons on joining the US and NATO's intervention and war against China.




[China's DF-21 intermediate range ballistic missiles hold Japan well within the range]

If Japan joins the intervention, not only Japan's Self Defense Forces' military bases but Japan's infrastructure such as power stations, power grids, strategic petroleum reserve storage tanks, railways, freeways, communication facilities, banking systems, and so on will be destroyed by China's ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. Japan will perish.

Actually, the US and Europe hope that Japan's infrastructure will be destroyed because it will produce demands for reconstruction and profit US and European businesses.

Also, if China attacks Japan, the price of Japan's government bonds will plunge steeply to almost zero, which will make Japan's megabanks bankrupted. The US and Europe want to see that too.



So, suspecting the US and Europe's motive, Japanese businesses may come to conclude that they should establish a pro-China government and make it declare neutrality on Taiwan crisis, prohibiting the US from using its military bases in Japan to intervene Taiwan. Then, Japan will be spared destruction.


In this case, the US and NATO's operations to intervene Taiwan will become extremely difficult because it would be only Guam bases and bases in Australia, South Korea and the Philippines that the US and NATO will be able to use. In addition, South Korea and the Philippines may declare neutrality too. As China will be able to concentrate upon fewer targets, damages and casualties of the US and NATO will increase dramatically and the possibility of the US and NATO’s successful military outcome will fade away.




However, it is likely that, despite of heavier damages and casualties and the zero possibility of military success, the US and NATO will dare to intervene Taiwan without Japan. But, it is not for honor or democracy but for money.

The reason why is that the US and European capitalists regard Taiwan war as only "the 1st battle" against China as, for instance, indicated in the title of CSIS's Taiwan War simulation.


[The title of CSIS's Taiwan war simulation is "The First Battle of the Next War"]

Actually, US and European capitalists must have already taken into consideration their defeat, damages and casualties in coming Taiwan War. Their real purpose is that US and European capitalists will use the defeat as a shock and an excuse to persuade and mobilize their population to transform the US and Europe into a war-machine to wage decades of war and ultimately destroy Sino-Russian alliance just like the US used Japan's Pearl Harbor attack and the Sputnik Shock.

The US may put into trillions of dollars to develop and deploy laser and space weapons such as laser-armed unmanned aerial vehicles and Space Based Laser while downsizing its Navy and Army, which requires strong grounds of argument to persuade and overcome the opposition of vested interests of conventional arms manufacturers. The US government would use the defeat in Taiwan war as such strong grounds.





In the coming decades, the US and European countries' freedoms and human rights will be severely restricted and their military budgets may triple and quadruple. War propaganda will dominate the society and fascists will assume public offices in the West.


[Giorgia Meloni, the first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini]


[Fascist sympathisers salute outside the cemetery of San Cassiano, where Benito Mussolini is buried.][5]


[Former NATO general Petr Pavel was elected as a president of Czech Republic]


4. A expedited demise of the US and Europe's capitalism

However, such transformation of the West will only result in an expedited demise of capitalism.

Here is why.


China is expanding her cooperation steadily to include Asia, Africa, Central & South America and Pacific Island countries.

In these areas, supply chains are well organized so that goods, services and raw materials are shipped and exchanged efficiently. China's economy will grow continually.





China is applying AI and Big Data to effectively and correctly supervise these vast areas and population. China ensures equal win-win relations among nations.



Because of equal win-win relations among nations, countries in these areas are willing to cooperate and help each other.


On the other hand, the US and Europe controlling area is diminishing more and more, with losing Asia, Africa, Central & South America and Pacific Island countries. The US and Europe controlling area tends to be limited only to cover UK, Germany, France, EU countries, Canada, Australia and Japan.



The US and Europe will be struggling to control even its limited area due to constant conflict of interests among countries within the area. The US and Europe will apply "fear and interest" to control countries. They will regularly threaten countries so that countries keep having fear and become obedient.


[NSA headquarters, Fort Meade, Maryland]

The US will makes NSA to sneak into people's PCs and smart phones to gather private information that the US will use to intimidate people and companies.


In China and her cooperative area, common prosperity and moderately prosperous society are ensured, producing the vast majority of middle class, which enables constant and steady growth of economy.




Meanwhile, in the US and Europe, inequality between the haves and the have-nots only expands, diminishing the middle class, which inevitably makes the economy stagnated.




Under these circumstances, the US and Europe will become even more desperate and try to destroy China and Russia militarily by all means.

For example, the US would set up a Taiwan exile government in the US mainland with a defeated DPP candidate put up as the president for the purpose of waging the 2nd and 3rd Taiwan Wars.

However, Sino-Russian alliance is invincible. Actually, China and Russia have more advanced space and laser technologies than the US.



Also, China, together with BRICS plus, will thwart the US and Europe’s provocations to start wars in Asia, South America and other regions in the world.


The US and Europe's economy will keep shrinking while their military spending will increase constantly.

Finally, the US and Europe will collapse due to terrible economic depression and heavy military burden, and China will magnanimously come to rescue and supervise the US and Europe.

Thank you.


References:
(1) China's Anti-Secession Act of 2005

Article 8 of China's Anti-Secession Act of 2005:
In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(2) USS Maine (1889), Wikipedia

(3) "On board with the RAF as allied fighter jets rehearse for war with China", February 9th 2023, The Times

(4) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS

(5) "Mussolini supporters march in Italy while Meloni minister shuts down rave", October 31st 2022, The Guardian


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.