ラペルズ テイミング確率仮説(2015/03/24 17:02追記) | エフィー・プライムのラペルズブログ

エフィー・プライムのラペルズブログ

ラペルズブログを書いています。

試行回数が少ないですが。


どんさんのコモンテイム結果。


Lv1 500 132 26.40%
Lv1+4 500 147 29.40%
lv13 500 217 43.40%
Lv13+4 500 236 47.20%


私のコモンテイム結果。

【Lv13+5】
【Common】 720 348 48.33%


【Lv13】
【Common】 441 192 43.54%



縦軸レベル。横軸カード。
コモン基本→27%(仮)
レベル→基本から5%増(仮)
カード→基本から4%増(仮)



1.08% 1.08% 1.08% 1.08% 1.08% 1.08% 1.08% 1.08%

1.35% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 27.00% 28.08% 29.16% 30.24% 31.32% 32.40% 33.48% 34.56% 35.64%
2 28.35% 29.43% 30.51% 31.59% 32.67% 33.75% 34.83% 35.91% 36.99%
3 29.70% 30.78% 31.86% 32.94% 34.02% 35.10% 36.18% 37.26% 38.34%
4 31.05% 32.13% 33.21% 34.29% 35.37% 36.45% 37.53% 38.61% 39.69%
5 32.40% 33.48% 34.56% 35.64% 36.72% 37.80% 38.88% 39.96% 41.04%
6 33.75% 34.83% 35.91% 36.99% 38.07% 39.15% 40.23% 41.31% 42.39%
7 35.10% 36.18% 37.26% 38.34% 39.42% 40.50% 41.58% 42.66% 43.74%
8 36.45% 37.53% 38.61% 39.69% 40.77% 41.85% 42.93% 44.01% 45.09%
9 37.80% 38.88% 39.96% 41.04% 42.12% 43.20% 44.28% 45.36% 46.44%
10 39.15% 40.23% 41.31% 42.39% 43.47% 44.55% 45.63% 46.71% 47.79%
11 40.50% 41.58% 42.66% 43.74% 44.82% 45.90% 46.98% 48.06% 49.14%
12 41.85% 42.93% 44.01% 45.09% 46.17% 47.25% 48.33% 49.41% 50.49%
13 43.20% 44.28% 45.36% 46.44% 47.52% 48.60% 49.68% 50.76% 51.84%
14 44.55% 45.63% 46.71% 47.79% 48.87% 49.95% 51.03% 52.11% 53.19%
15 45.90% 46.98% 48.06% 49.14% 50.22% 51.30% 52.38% 53.46% 54.54%
16 47.25% 48.33% 49.41% 50.49% 51.57% 52.65% 53.73% 54.81% 55.89%
17 48.60% 49.68% 50.76% 51.84% 52.92% 54.00% 55.08% 56.16% 57.24%
18 49.95% 51.03% 52.11% 53.19% 54.27% 55.35% 56.43% 57.51% 58.59%
19 51.30% 52.38% 53.46% 54.54% 55.62% 56.70% 57.78% 58.86% 59.94%
20 52.65% 53.73% 54.81% 55.89% 56.97% 58.05% 59.13% 60.21% 61.29%



これだとLv1+4の実践値との差が大きい。


【追記】
コモン基本→27%(仮)
レベル→基本から5%増(仮)
カード→レベルの確率から2.5%増(仮)



1.35% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.68% 1 27.00% 27.68% 28.35% 29.03% 29.70% 30.38% 31.05% 31.73% 32.40%
0.71% 2 28.35% 29.06% 29.77% 30.48% 31.19% 31.89% 32.60% 33.31% 34.02%
0.74% 3 29.70% 30.44% 31.19% 31.93% 32.67% 33.41% 34.16% 34.90% 35.64%
0.78% 4 31.05% 31.83% 32.60% 33.38% 34.16% 34.93% 35.71% 36.48% 37.26%
0.81% 5 32.40% 33.21% 34.02% 34.83% 35.64% 36.45% 37.26% 38.07% 38.88%
0.84% 6 33.75% 34.59% 35.44% 36.28% 37.13% 37.97% 38.81% 39.66% 40.50%
0.88% 7 35.10% 35.98% 36.86% 37.73% 38.61% 39.49% 40.37% 41.24% 42.12%
0.91% 8 36.45% 37.36% 38.27% 39.18% 40.10% 41.01% 41.92% 42.83% 43.74%
0.95% 9 37.80% 38.75% 39.69% 40.64% 41.58% 42.53% 43.47% 44.42% 45.36%
0.98% 10 39.15% 40.13% 41.11% 42.09% 43.07% 44.04% 45.02% 46.00% 46.98%
1.01% 11 40.50% 41.51% 42.53% 43.54% 44.55% 45.56% 46.58% 47.59% 48.60%
1.05% 12 41.85% 42.90% 43.94% 44.99% 46.04% 47.08% 48.13% 49.17% 50.22%
1.08% 13 43.20% 44.28% 45.36% 46.44% 47.52% 48.60% 49.68% 50.76% 51.84%
1.11% 14 44.55% 45.66% 46.78% 47.89% 49.01% 50.12% 51.23% 52.35% 53.46%
1.15% 15 45.90% 47.05% 48.20% 49.34% 50.49% 51.64% 52.79% 53.93% 55.08%
1.18% 16 47.25% 48.43% 49.61% 50.79% 51.98% 53.16% 54.34% 55.52% 56.70%
1.22% 17 48.60% 49.82% 51.03% 52.25% 53.46% 54.68% 55.89% 57.11% 58.32%
1.25% 18 49.95% 51.20% 52.45% 53.70% 54.95% 56.19% 57.44% 58.69% 59.94%
1.28% 19 51.30% 52.58% 53.87% 55.15% 56.43% 57.71% 59.00% 60.28% 61.56%
1.32% 20 52.65% 53.97% 55.28% 56.60% 57.92% 59.23% 60.55% 61.86% 63.18%



これだと実践値には近くなります。



私のテイム結果の内容が

ブルーピクシー 226 116 51.33%
セイレーン 226 105 46.46%
ウルフ 146 67 45.89%
オクトパス 122 60 49.18%

こんな感じなのでまだ全然収束してない感じですけどね。飽くまで現時点の実践値に寄せて考えると、ということで。

昔の実践値http://ameblo.jp/efficacy-priming2/entry-11445178487.html を見返してみると、下の数値に近い。(Lv10+5試行回数4921回で44.06%)