Korea's trade surplus decreased by 40% in 1 year
... lowest in 7 years
https://japanese.joins.com/article/298/524798.html?servcode=300§code=300
June 25th, 2019 c Korea Economic Daily / The Central Nippon Daily
The Industrial Research Institute
lowered Korea ’s growth forecast this year from 2.4 percent to 2.4 percent.
It is based on the judgment that exports
and domestic demand will continue to stagnate until the second half .
In particular, the decline in exports continued
and the trade balance was expected to be the lowest after 2012,
which was in the midst of the European financial crisis.
Industrial Research Institute on the 24th,
Economic and Industrial Forecast Report
for the Second Half of 2019
announced.
The report presented this year's real gross domestic product
( GDP ) growth rate of 2.4 percent,
0.2 points lower than the 2.6 percent announced last November.
It is lower than the Korean government's 2.6 to 2.7 percen
and the Bank of Korea's 2.5 percent forecast.
Prior to this, Korea Development Research Institute (KDI),
another government-related research institute,
predicted 2.4 percent last month.
The Institute of Industrial Research
has revised down major macroeconomic indicators one after another .
The Korean government made a goal
"Export reached $ 600 billion"
Expected to be tough.
Last year, this year's exports were expected to reach 3.73 billion dollars,
up 3.7% from the previous year, but in this report
it was revised downward to 569 billion dollars, down 5.9% from last year.
Private consumption, capital investment, construction investment,
import and export results all lowered the outlook .
The trade surplus is expected to reach a low of 42.1 billion won
( approx. ¥ 3.9 billion, approx. $ 3645 thousand ),
the lowest since $ 28.3 billion in 2012, during the European financial crisis.
It's 39.5 percent lower than last year .
The Industrial Research Institute analyzed
that raising minimum wages and shortening working hours
would negatively affect some industries.
Capital investment,
which was expected to increase 1.9% over the same period last year,
dropped sharply to 6% last year.
Report is
"The semiconductor industry that has led the expansion
of investment has already made large-scale investments
and there is little potential for additional investment .
Uncertainty due to US-China trade confrontation
and global economic slowdown is also a factor
to increase the decline in investment
And explained.
Exports in the second half of the 13 major industries including semiconductors,
automobiles and displays are expected to decrease 7.4% YoY .
The Industrial Research Institute in particular saw
that the semiconductor slump has been prolonged .
Lee Imja Research Committee of the Industrial Research Institute
“The price of semiconductors is falling,
the US-China trade dispute is prolonged,
and investment in global data centers is delayed .
In particular, if the Huawei issue goes into full swing,
semiconductor exports are expected to be adversely affected. "
He talked.
Huawei accounts for 12% of SK Hynix sales and 3%
of Samsung Electronics sales.
Semiconductor production in the second half is expected
to decline 18.7% YoY due to poor exports.
Report is
"To revitalize domestic demand and expand exports,
we need to improve the corporate environment such as deregulation.
We also need to help boost the competitiveness
of our core manufacturing industries and support high-value-added,
promising new industry growth. "
It was suggested.
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