The world's departure from the United States has progressed,
as Trump's diplomacy makes
it impossible for anyone to suspect "political thought".
"The most prominent one is Korea, " said Kenji Tsuda,
author of the e-mail magazine "International Strategy Column".
In this article, Mr. Tsuda is thinking
that President MoonJae-in 's intentions to unify the North and South
and Korea's reunification with North Korea
Note the negative aspects that bring
Relaxation of the US-China Trade War
November first week,
that the strains had fallen matched by the trade friction over
the phone summit of playing cards and Xi Jinping.
what will happen?
The cause of the rise in stock prices
NY stocks hit a record high of $ 26,651 on October 3 and dropped to $ 24,688
on October 26 , but returned to $ 25,380 on November 1 ,
but November It was down $ 109
from the previous day to $ 25,270 on the 2nd .
A telephone summit between China and the United States has been realized,
and President Trump has directed the drafting of an agreement
at the summit in November ,
and then the White House senior officials and chairman
of the United Nations Economic Conference
with the United Nations Economic Leaders of NEC It has been lowered
by showing a negative view on the trade agreement inside.
However,
the Nikkei average raised more than 550 yen on November 1 to 22,243 yen
by repurchase of short sale on the news of the draft agreement.
Japan also hit a high of 24,448 yen on October 2 for the first time in six years,
but it was lowered to 20,971 yen on October 26 but returned.
Last time "America, beginning of the end. But why China should be distanced"
In the absence of political efforts such as the US-China Trade War suspension,
the downturn will continue, but President Trump also sees
that the cause of the downfall is the US-China Trade War,
Japan's Prime Minister Abe with China He think that he asked
for an intermediary with the United States .
And it seems that Prime Minister Abe has convinced China how to deal
with the trade friction with Japan that Japan has experienced,
and China has changed its response,
but in order to hide that to the Chinese people,
China is better than Japan. Would have directed.
It is also the reason why the United States didn't blame
while visiting Prime Minister Abe .
After returning to Japan,
Prime Minister Abe reported to the United States President Trump
of China what China had made compromises,
and it was possible that a call could be made from the United States,
a US-China telephone summit was realized,
and a compromise could be made. China's response has changed significantly
and has become flexible.
However, they still do not know about the compromises,
may be a bargain for President Trump's good negotiations,
and it can not be denied that it was deliberately designed
to raise stock prices for the middle election.
Future trend of stock prices
The IMF has lowered its economic outlook for 2019 ,
and Apple's financial results were good,
but even if Apple did not reach its expected value by not stating its outlook,
even Apple could lower its stock price.
Now all FANG stocks have fallen .
NY small stocks are almost down,
and only defensive stocks such as J & J and PG are good.
However, the high yield bonds have not fallen,
so they have not entered a recession.
It seems like the economic situation of first turn and back .
Japanese companies, too, have been revised down a lot,
and all companies have changed slightly from the feeling of increased sales
and profits, and are anticipating the turn of the economy.
This is a major turning point in the market.
And there is a high possibility that the economic slowdown
will become clear after March 2019 .
After March , the effect of the tax cut on rice will come to light ,
and there is nothing to support the economy .
Therefore, since there is only a repurchase of short sale,
independence restitution does not last long .
So, It will not go over the 24,448 yen
which It gave on October 2 . As stock prices are embedded in the future,
at the moment when the recession is visible, they will be embedded.
When bad material comes out, short sale goes over 50 % and stock price falls,
and when good material comes out, it becomes repetition of a surge.
It becomes a violent market price up and down.
However, as corporate performance gradually declines,
stock prices will gradually decline .
So , it seems that Elliot wave of down starts and the first wave came.
While going up and down, it will go down.
It will be a recession and monetary policy will need to be changed .
Financial policy
It is difficult to raise the interest rate of the Fed next time.
Interest rates can not be raised if stock prices fall.
Rather, it is likely to return to monetary easing .
Inflationary pressure due to double wages in the market due
to quantitative easing is high,
and inflationary pressures due to rising wages in the US are staggering
in the recession caused by rising interest rates on US bonds,
and it becomes the worst, so we have to take measures before that.
If the US eases the economic recovery before inflation rises,
what will Japan do ?
Even at this point, it is 1 dollar = 113 yen,
and the possibility of yen appreciation comes out
when the interest rate difference shrinks.
Japan's monetary policy is more difficult in recession.
The strong yen will lead to recession,
but with stronger quantitative easing,
the stock market will lose its market function.
At the moment, the stock is cheap
with PER around 13 times and the market function is sound,
but the corporate profit decreases,
and when the PER becomes 16 times or more,
the stock becomes high and the BOJ's ETF buys the market
There is a possibility of losing functionality.
Even with monetary policy and negative interest rates,
the profits of financial institutions are still lost,
and even if local banks are in great trouble,
their survival will be even worse by the loss of lenders
when the recession comes.
We can only make it a very acrobatic monetary policy .
The BOJ's ETF buy based on the PER figures and the short-term interest rate
will be zero, and the 10- year JGB interest rate will be raised to 1 %.
This measure is to make it before the recession .
Once the recession has become clear, this measure can not be taken.
However, when exports are lost due to recession,
the current account will be in a large deficit and the yen will fall,
so it will be a recessionary inflation (stagflation) and there will be no defeat.
It is only necessary to raise interest rates
so that inflation does not accelerate .
It is important to follow fiscal and monetary policies
that do not lead to this situation.
So, ignoring the monetary and fiscal policies
It have proposed up to now has become a very difficult situation.
The difference between President Trump
and Republicans in the United States
The US mid-term election will be known at noon on Wednesday,
November 7 Japan time,
but it is likely that stock prices will rise and fall
as the results of this election are announced.
President Trump ,
unlike internationals such as Republican Vice President Pence,
is only interested in his own reputation without political thought .
At this point,
it seems that maintaining the economy and maintaining share prices
have a higher priority than taking tough measures
in China's trade war with China.
It does not emphasize the Japan-US alliance to counter China,
as it will include exchange clauses in FTA negotiations with Japan.
It is the self-evaluation priority of the time.
Therefore, it is difficult to predict Trump's policy
because it swings to the right and to the left.
The world has shifted to diplomacy without the United States
because it can not trust the unpredictable Trump diplomacy
and can not rely on the United States .
The most advanced is Korea .
Korean change
Korea is pushing for nuclear-North Korean unification .
And, it is said that Korea's emergency command will also be transferred
from the US to Korea.
Now the US forces in Korea can not fight under Korean command,
so the US forces in Korea will be withdrawn .
The US-Korea alliance will also end .
South Korea is said to be unprotected against the North Korean border line,
it is liberalizing human traffic, and it can only be merged with North Korea.
You can get a mining business and cheap labor in North Korea,
but it will be burdened with huge infrastructure construction.
There is no economic point of view .
Of course,
Japan has been confronted with Korea due to the issue of comfort women
and Korean workers during the war ,
and will not receive a request for financial support from Korea,
and it will not be resolved from the abduction issue of North Korea.
It should not provide financial support for
President Moon Jae-in started chasing
the dream of becoming a nuclear powerhouse.
It can also threaten Japan with nuclear weapons .
The reason for this kind of policy seems to be that the policy
of raising wages weakens the Korean economy
and wants an economic initiator .
The Korean economy is now in recession except for Samsung and LG ,
and there are no places to work,
so many Korean students are aiming to find jobs in Japanese companies.
President Roh ’s president seems to connect Korean railways
to Russian railways as a priming agent for the Korean economy,
and to use Busan as a starting point for the Eurasia transshipment railway
and to develop mines for North Korea.
World division game
As Trump diplomacy is unreliable,
games are taking place that repartition the world .
Israel is the most worried .
We have relied on the United States, but with the direction of withdrawal
from the Middle East, we tried to counter Iran in a friendly relationship
with Saudi, but the relationship
between Saudi and the United States has become strange,
and we are in a situation where we have no allies in the vicinity.
Because of this, Israeli Prime Minister Netaniyev stated t
hat he would maintain a friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia .
As Saudi Arabia strengthens its relationship with Russia,
Russia takes the Middle East, China takes Africa and Southeast Asia,
and Japan, India, Vietnam, etc. are jointly trying to ease China's advance.
The United States is isolated, Canada is moved to Europe, Latin America is lost.
China is beginning to hand out to Latin America.
Europe is busy organizing the inside and there is no interest in other areas.
This is a world split play by China and Russia.
Well, what happens?
BTS members famous for atomic bomb T-shirts are crazy inside the bus Videos leaked! https://twitter.com/i/status/1062852872176451584
Overseas fans seem to be exactly the same
Suddenly overflowing with compliments of English praise. Creepy…
http://www.ekn.kr/news/article.html?no=398456
https://news.v.daum.net/v/20181106030037589
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181114000854
Dokdo is also doing anti-Japanese act of singing our territory.
The capital flight started
World stock price / Korea KOSPI
Do not move, government intervention,
Trading suspension, circuit breaker activation,
power off of server,
Koria have a proven track record.
Yuzuru Sato
Korea attacks Japan by combining hands with North Korea and China
Propaganda neglect affects the recreation of the comfort women problem,
the activities of Japanese companies around the world
Possibility of losing in the image strategy at the US jury trial.
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