Until this year's "1.5% growth this year" outlook
... Korea's growth rate downward revision rush
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Following the OECD,
Korea's annual growth rate forecast value has reduced
from 2.6% to 2.4% until KDI
and the forecast values of
and outside Korea the goal values of the Korean government
(2. It will be less than
It is not uncommon
of this year drastically reduced
Korean government
"The direction of economic policy in the second half"
It will be noted whether the annual target value will be revised downward
in the announcement of. According to the International Financial Center's nine IB forecasts,
Korea's economic growth rate is expected to remain on average 2.3% this year.
This is a drop of 0.2 percentage points in one month
The 2020 growth rate forecast was 2.4%, lower than the OECD forecast.
By IB, Nomura was
forecasting Korea's economic growth rate to be 1.8% this year
Barclays 2.2%, Goldman Sachs 2.3% and so on. Nomura's Nogi Mori Akira economist
"Korea's gross domestic product GDP
in the January-March quarter dropped
" Capital investment dropped 10.8%
which suggests that poor exports could
have a negative impact domestic economy
And clarified.
Barclays said that even with the government's supplementary budget,
it is difficult to completely offset downward risks such as poor exports and investment. Higher public confidence agencies and rating agencies
and economic research institutes lowered the bar
for Korea's growth rate over the past couple of months.
Standard & Poor's (S & P), a rating company, lowered
forecast from 2.5% to 2.4% and Moody's lowered it
Korea's capital economics, an economic analysis agency,
is expected to grow 1.8% this year, 2.0% next year, and 2.5% in 2021,
and will recover in the same results within three years to be difficult The ING group is even more pessimistic.
ING is
"The bad state got even worse From bad to worse
According to the comment, the forecast value announced 1.5 percent this year,
which fell 0.8 percentage points from the existing 2.3 percent.
ING Group's chief economist Robert Kernel
"In order to achieve an annual growth rate of 2.5%,
we should continue to grow at least 1%
from the previous quarter every quarter, but this should not happen."
"Further slowing of economic growth in the second quarter may result
in a structural downturn.
Warned.
In Korea, too,
the lines of sight of the private research institutes
such as LG Economic Research Institute (2.3%), the Bank of Korea (2.5%),
and the National Assembly Budget Office (2.5%) are facing downward OECD leads the US economic growth rate to 2.8%,
which has been upgraded from March (2.6%),
and Eurozone has been revised upward from 1.0% to 1.2% In the prospect
of brightening the future of the country ,
a only Korea goes against it
In particular, recently, President Moon Jae-in Cheong Dae Wa
"In the second half, we will recover in the second half of the 2% growth rate."
"Fortunately, the tendency to improve gradually"
"The economy is heading for success"
There is a large difference in temperature from statements The cause of the slowing of Korea's growth rate is their stagnation in exports
and investment
With the sluggish domestic demand,
the economy of the manufacturing industry is deteriorating,
and the business investment environment is also deteriorating
Furthermore, there are also concerns that the Korean economy,
which is highly dependent on exports, shaken
by external factors such as the spread of US-China trade conflict. Among the major institutions that compiled the outlook since March,
the IMF (2.6%) is almost the only institution
whose outlook is within the government's target.
This is because the IMF tends to forecast growth prospects conservatively
and does not reflect that Korea's January-January GDP grew by -0.34%
from the previous quarter on the announcement date. Be done.
In particular, the Ministry of Planning and Finance explained
that it maintained the same growth rate forecast value
as before on the premise of Korea's supplementary budget compilation. However, the IMF also released its report after the 2019 annual talks
with the Korean government on the 13th.
" We recommend
with improving labor productivity and recommending gradual reduction
in compensation subsidies to
He called for "enforce the flexibility and security in the labor market
and encourage the creation of jobs in the private sector". Experts see that it is not easy to reach the government's growth target
this year.
In order to recover -0.3% of reverse growth in the January-March quarter,
the growth rate from
It is necessary to move “right up”, but it is inevitable when considering
the investment psychology of a company and overseas uncertainty. The head of the National Center for Analysis, Vincent Cohen,
at the OECD, recently
"Korea's first-quarter negative growth has been the worst
since the financial crisis,
but it may have been due to the general economic downturn,
export slump and investment slump
"If China's economic growth slows
highly dependent Korea hit hard
and the Brexit (Brexit)
variable and oil price increase are also risk factors for Korea"
Pointed out. Professor Son Tae-yun, Faculty of Economics, Yonsei University
"With exports and investment continuing to decline, foreign uncertainty
has increased and the economic downturn is accelerating.
"If the situation like this continues, the growth by 2.5% may become severe."
And explained.
He says, "First of all, a general correction to the policy real
It added. The government announces the growth rate forecast value in the direction
of economic policy next month.
Hong Nam-gi, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning and Finance, asked a question on the 20th,
whether to revise downward the growth rate target in the direction
of the second half economic policy
"It's not a stage to say whether to fix or not.
It will judge while watching the economic situation until June. "
It talked.
You have to sink once before jumping high.
President Moon is looking ahead. Genius is something that is not understood immediately. Please do your best to break off relations so as not to be said
to be a natural disaster.
Recommendation 1421 Opposite Ten
In developing countries this is really tough, isn't it? Please believe in President Moon and do your best.
Recommendation 1352 Opposite 9
I think it feels better if you set it to -5% and adjust upward gradually.
Recommendation 1226 Opposite 9
Should I be happy to say that the growth rate is higher than Japan?
Recommendation 383 Opposite Four
it is a good feeling~! At such time, timely, remove the credit line Apply sanctions
Let's give the acceleration Never hesitate, Let's do it thoroughly and expect it.
Recommendation 315 Opposite 3
It's okay.
The economics of the candle industry will improve.
Wages also rise as the domestic demand industry expands.
Moonmun thinks about that and formulates a policy.
The economy should improve in the second half.
Recommendation 257 Opposite 2
Japan endured the lost 20 Please do your best in Korea
Recommendation 256 Opposite 2
It's okay. Mr. Moon will say that he will recover next year at the next interview. And I will say that I will recover again next year at the next interview. And if you notice it, the country is broken.
Recommendation 248 Opposite Four
, 1.5 It is wonderful. It is all right if you go as it is. Since I have not realized the reaction yet,
please raise the minimum wage increase more.
Recommendation 236 Opposite 2
It is good if Japan does not help.
Recommendation 169 Opposite 2
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