https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/64541
Hasegawa Yukihiro Journalist 2010.05.10
US-ChinaTradeWarChina'sDecisionDefeatInevitable2
US-ChinaTradeWarChina'sDecisionDefeatInevitable1
米中貿易戦争「中国のボロ負け」が必至だと 判断できる根拠を示そう
米中貿易戦争「中国のボロ負け」が必至だと 判断できる根拠を示そう２
Trump had decided from the beginning
On May 7 ,
the Trump administration in the United States announced
that it would raise its sanctions duty from $ 200 billion worth
of imports from China from 10 percent to 25 percent .
Following this, the global stock market plunged.
What will be the future of the US-China Trade War?
In fact, it is 10 days to raise tariffs, so after the release of this column,
a US-China agreement will be reached at the last minute,
and there is no possibility that the hike will be withdrawn.
However,
it is unlikely that China will make a major concession.
If that happens, China's bow will be revealed to the world.
I think that after all, tariffs can be raised.
Japanese media is
"President Trump, who was talking about an optimistic outlook,
suddenly turned to a hard line."
It is reported that "It is a bargain for the president."
It must be a bargain because it is a negotiation,
but I do not think it is the president's policy change.
From the beginning, Mr. Trump has faced China in a tough stance .
The reason for the optimism was
"I'm not sweet, But if China is ask the other to change, it is welcome.
So I don't say "the agreement is difficult"
to the in the middle of negotiating.
Please think carefully. "
It was the message that.
Why do you look so?
In the first place
"We impose sanctions to stop China's intellectual property theft behavior"
The purpose and method itself are quite unusual.
It can even be said rough.
The president went so far because the thief China was too severe .
In other words,
the President's firm attitude was clear
when he decided to go out of control of the sanctions tariff.
If so, it is natural for Trump to strengthen sanctions
as long as China does not show any conviction to stop theft .
The Japanese media are more likely to criticize the Trump administration than
to criticize China.
For example, the Asahi Shimbun editorial dated May 8
"The United States must be aware of its responsibility as a large country."
"You should strictly refrain from imposing sanctions duties that are suspected
of breaching the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) rules."
Pointed out with eyes from above
( Https://digital.asahi.com/articles/DA3S14005052.html?iref=editorial_backnumber ).
The United States, the guardian of free trade,
is embarrassed that it has taken protectionist measures.
But as of July last year, the White House and the US Trade Representative
( USTR ) had each published a report, criticizing China's robbery strictly
( July 13 , 2018 published column, https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/56527 ,
September 21 published column, https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/57602 ) .
If you look at the flow since July last year ,
you should have read that the Trump administration
is not likely to compromise easily .
If you say the rule violation, China is much more malicious,
but there is
"It want you to persuade calmly"
Etc. You are so naive ideal.
It's not such a fuss if it's enough to persuade.
It may be a trade war because China does not listen to what it says.
Asahi newspaper is biased by "Critics on Trump".
Of course, it is natural to miss Trump's true meaning.
Incidentally, the Asahi newspaper has a tendency to first determine
its stance and report any problems.
Rather than looking at things objectively, claims are first .
China's ambitions of "take over"
I derailed.
For Trump, the problem is
" How to deal with thief's China "
It is a story.
The decision was the means of unprecedented sanctions.
From the beginning
"We will deal with China even if it is somewhat violent."
Has established a policy.
In the background
"China aims to defeat the United States and take over it "
There is a judgment that.
If this is the case,
there is no option to give up sanctions duty and to compromise halfway,
even though there is no proof that theft will stop.
If you do such a thing
It becomes the story, "What was the previous sanction?"
Again, The president's intention was firm from the beginning.
This is one point.
In addition,
I believe that the summit meeting with the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,
which had been held just before, might have had an impact as well.
I'm in the public column on March 29
Based on the view that "Trump will not compromise with China"
"May Prime Minister Abe advise the president
to 'Do not compromise on China easily'"
( Https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/63795 ).
Prime Minister Abe visited the United States on April 26 in the middle
of his visit to Europe and the United States,
and talked thoroughly with Trump over two days.
In response to the Japan-US Summit,
there is the strengthening of sanctions this time .
In terms of time frame,
it would be natural to believe that Prime Minister Abe and Mr. Trump
have agreed on China's hardships against China, and have reached a tariff hike.
The reason is that, as mentioned in the previous column,
the Trump administration's policy toward China is based on the advice
of Prime Minister Abe,
who met in November 2016 before becoming president .
Trump to judge the treatment of China
I should have thought, "I will think after hearing the story of Shinzo."
On the homepage of the Foreign Ministry,
at the Japan-US Summit Meeting
"China has become a topic"
Although I did not write a word, while Japan-China relations are improving,
in order to avoid stimulating China, He may not have touched it.
Anyway, so far it is the development I expected in the column.
Meanwhile, in the previous column, I
"Prime Minister Abe also wants to push
Mr. Trump's hard line against China from his back
It must be agreed that "the Japanese economy is okay".
Naturally, postponement of tax increase will be an option. "
I wrote.
How about this?
Perhaps this will be the case.
Of course, if the US raises sanctions tariffs,
China will become even more damaging.
Even if that is not the case, China, which is in recession,
has fallen into negative growth.
If you look at the decline in consumption and the decline in imports,
it may be possible that it is already negative .
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DiffusionHopeGermanNGOSupportLaosAdoptVillage
DiffusionHopehttps://laos.oxfam.org/
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