Won plunges every day ... why only Korea stands out
https://japanese.joins.com/article/268/253268.html?servcode=300§code=310
May 13 , 2019 [c Korea Economic Daily / Chuo Nippo Japanese edition ]
Won plunges every day ... why only Korea stands2
Won plunges every day ... why only Korea stands
The won market plunged sharply .
The won -dollar exchange rate, which was one dollar at the beginning
of last month at 1130 won level, reached 50 won in one month,
and the dollar has fallen by more than 50 won in a month .
On the 10th, the dollar rose to 1182.90 won during trading hours.
The won level has fallen for two years and four months
since January 17, 2017.
The recent rise is similar to Argentina
and other countries facing the economic crisis .
The won's price changed 180 degrees,
as it kept flat from 1115 to 1135 won for the 9 months from July last year.
On the 9th and 10th, it showed an uneasy appearance showing
a sharp drop of 3-4 won in just a few minutes .
Concerns have been raised about whether foreign funds,
which are concerned about foreign exchange losses ,
will not leave the Korean market .
It searched for three types of issues concerning exchange rates.
(1) The reason why only the won decline is fast
The won-dollar exchange rate went up to 117.80 won on the 9th
and the won hit a low from the beginning of the year .
The rate of decline since April is 4.06 percent.
Among the major developed countries and emerging countries
in the same period,
those with the largest decline in the US dollar compared
with Korea are only Turkey and Argentina,
which are suffering from serious high prices and economic difficulties .
China, which is a party in a trade dispute with the United States,
fell only 1.72 percent .
It is said that it is tough to depreciate the won
as a result of the US-China trade friction .
Experts see the impact of the domestic economic downturn concerns
as well as foreign variables.
Professor Shin Sedong of Economics Department, Meimei Women's University,
It was interpreted that
"the demand to preempt the dollar has increased because of the prospect
of prolonged export slump " and the decline of the won has expanded.
Seo Jung-hoon, Senior Research Fellow at KEB Hana Bank
"The negative growth in the January-March quarter caused
global investors to have a sense of unrest
and led to a sharp drop in the won."
The biggest drop in the won market in this month was the three-day period,
which was around the 25th last month when the growth rate
for the January-March quarter was announced .
It is analyzed that the point that the risk against North Korea ,
which had been under water for a while,
has risen again has also been depreciated.
(2) How much will it fall after the won market
Exchange rates are expected to move along with the progress
of US-China trade negotiations in the short term.
Experts expect the dollar to surpass 1190 won if the negotiation is unclear.
In this case, 1200 won is expected to play the role
of the primary resistance line .
Mr. Min Kyung-won, researcher at Woori Bank
"Every time the won goes down, dollar sales by exporters have come to a close
They are watching with the recognition that "the won will go down further ."
There is a high possibility of touching 1200 won
in the short term according to the negotiation result. "
Seo Research Committee member
"The United States eventually raised tariffs,
but if China's retaliatory measures come into effect here,
the trade friction will be a full war ,
and the weak won may not be possible."
It expected.
Experts
"If, on the other hand, trade negotiations show signs of a conclusion,
the exchange rate will turn upward in the short run.
But in the medium to long term,
it is likely that the exchange rate will remain weak
due to concerns about the domestic economy. "
It expected.
(3) There is no possibility of fund outflow
As the rate of change in market interest rate between Korea
and the US has increased this year,
the won has weakened to the exchange rate,
and there are concerns that foreign funds may not flow out of Korea .
Foreign investors disposed of the largest stock
in the 10th securities market this year.
Professor Shin
"It can not see Korea leaving Korea as soon as It raise funds from the market.
There are no signs of major withdrawals "
And
Professor Kim So-Yon of Seoul University of Economics
"Among foreign investors investing in Korean bonds,
the proportion of long-term investors such as government funds is high,
and they will not be sensitive to short-term exchange rate movements
or US-China trade conflicts."
Speak with.
There is also an analysis that if the concern over
the Korean economy expands further,
the possibility of withdrawal of funds can not be ruled out.
Professor Kim
"If the current account slips into the red in April,
foreign investors may receive a signal
that the Korean economy is serious and may adjust the portfolio."
He talked.
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