<Fact Check> Movie "National Day of Probability"
Did the Bank of Korea try to stop the IMF ?
http://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2018/12/03/2018120303090.html
2018.12.04
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4 Was the Daewoo Group dangerous in November 1997 ?
With the IMF bailout, Korean mid-sized companies fell like autumn leaves.
Before and after the IMF ,
20,000 companies disappeared in Korea and six banks
and 22 general financial companies finally closed the door.
In the film,
the crisis situation was depicted as drawing a red line for a bankrupt company
in the list of 100 companies placed in the currency crisis TF team's office.
At this time,
it is worth noting that the Korean bank staff said
that Daewoo would be dangerous after the phone call
The Daewoo Group was one of the foremost conglomerates
in the 5th place in the business world.
The story that Daewoo is dangerous has tremendous ripple power by itself .
The problem is that this scene itself is fictional.
At the time of the IMF foreign exchange crisis in 1997 ,
the Daewoo Group had no signs of crisis.
Rather,
it acquired the scale by acquiring Ssangyong Automobile
after the IMF relief financial application.
The proposal to acquire a group dealing with Kia Motors in crisis was discussed.
The Daewoo Group went into crisis in 1999 .
In the case of fine decoration accounting and excessive debt,
problems such as embezzlement came out
and came out like a comprehensive gift set, eventually leading to failure.
At the time of the IMF currency crisis,
the financial structure of the Daewoo Group was in a critical situation,
and here, after the currency crisis,
the banks did not give a large amount of loans unwillingly,
and proceeded to the loan review with careful attention.
A fault has become clear.
However,
as in the movie, nobody said that in November 1997 there was no treatment
or danger.
It is because Korean bank staff are not prophets.
5 The Bank of Korea had a confidential report
The film starts with a secret report as far as mentioning the possibility
of national disapproval.
At one time , the report was read by the prefecture,
and the Korean bank president started talking
while finding the Cheong Wa Dae economic chief.
Was the Bank of Korea's secret report actually referring
to the possibility of national disapproval?
At 4:00 pm on November 7 , 1997 ,
there was an emergency meeting to prepare for measures against
the currency crisis at the Blue House's Economic Leader's Room.
At that time, Gim In Ho's economic chief held a conference calling
with Jae Kyung Won as much as possible.
One of the materials discussed at this day's meeting
was the report of the Bank of Korea .
It was a report titled "Forex liquidity circumstances and countermeasures".
Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy, Imchan Yol, has reported the news
of the closing of the IMF relief finance negotiations
at the Hilton Hotel on November 30 , 1997 .
The report included foreign exchange reserves having fallen
sharply to $ 28.5 billion while using $ 2.33 billion
from October 30 to November 6 to forex protection.
The report predicts that foreign exchange reserves by the end of November
will be reduced to $ 27.5 billion,
with only $ 14 billion of foreign exchange reserves available in particular.
It warned that the government could not pay back foreign bonds,
and that the nation could not pay.
If it becomes difficult to borrow money further than this,
there is also a warning that a vicious cycle will be repeated
that banks will experience difficulties in securing funds in this way
by reducing the credit line (lending limit) there were.
This report will be considered in the first report that directly mentions
the possibility of an IMF foreign exchange crisis and a state failure.
However,
warning lights that the currency crisis is coming have been on before.
In July 1997 ,
the Jekyung Won Economic Policy Bureau prepared a secret report
"Baht and Chia : A Different Problem?"
If the currency crisis that started in Southeast Asia affects Korea,
it is a matter of having to establish measures.
At the time, the manager of the policy adjustment section, Jekyungwon,
who made this report
For several days after the July report,
Mr. Choi issued a report that mentioned the possibility of a currency crisis.
Kang Kyung-shik,
then the Deputy Prime Minister, did not even know this situation.
Deputy Prime Minister Kawa said in February 1998 Byeongyangyun
and then a reporter in the city of Dae Kyung Won,
saying, “Korea has been facing a crisis of state failure since its appointment.”
Deputy Prime Minister Kawa took office in March 1997 .
At the time of inauguration, foreign exchange reserves were only $ 28 billion.
It is similar to the time when the Bank of Korea 's secret report was issued.
Since then,
the government has made several plans to increase foreign exchange reserves
to more than $ 30 billion,
but the Asian currency crisis has caused
such efforts to return to water bubbles.
6 Head of the Monetary Policy Team , Korea Bank,
who appeared in the IMF negotiations ?
Kim Hee-soo, President of Korea Bank's Monetary Policy Team,
regrets Kim Hye-su in the film,
and foresees the imminent economic crisis approaching,
and sets up discussions with Jae Kyung Won in the process of dealing
with the crisis.
As long as it comes out, the chief will be the governor, deputy governor,
deputy governor, deputy governor, director (now director), etc.,
and will appear in the IMF- government negotiations.
However, this is fiction to make use of the dramatic elements of the film.
The governor will attend meetings and negotiations representing
the Bank of Korea on the basis of the relatively strict job classification system,
mainly by the president.
In fact, at the time of the currency crisis, Kyung Kyung-sik,
Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy, Gim In Ho Seong-wa Dae,
was the chief economic officer and the one who attended multiple meetings
to deal with the crisis was Lee Kyung-sik, President of the Brig.
At the time of the currency crisis,
Mr. Kim Hess was present at the Bank of Korea Bank and discussed
in Kim Hess's model.
"There is a growing interest in the film after the release of the film,
and it raises the question of who is the actual person
of Hansi Hyun's team leader,
but it is impossible that Korea Bank team leader's personnel function
actually played such a role."
He said, "It should be a part of the movie.
Furthermore,
at that time, there was a time when there was a perception
that the Bank of Korea was affiliated with Jeegyeongwon, that is,
“Namdaemun Branch Office”, and when it was not such time
that the BOK's policy leadership and independence were so large. It recall.
The part where Korea Bank Team Leaders personnel are out arguing
with the Deputy Secretary and the counterparts, and warned " Please firmly "
in meeting the nation's top group numbers,
is the analysis that overestimated even in Korea Bank It's out.
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