https://shinjukuacc.com/20181205-02/
2018/12/05
UNinternationalLawBasedCountermeasuresForKorea2
UNinternationalLawBasedCountermeasuresForKorea1
Countermeasures against Korea based
on the UN International Law Commission Resolution Document
The number of immigrants will increase
and decrease significantly each month .
There is simply no point in looking at the numbers
"What happened compared to the previous month".
Therefore,
what It value is a figure
that is 12 times the " 12- month moving average ."
For example, the number of Koreans who entered Japan is
In October 2018 , it was 571,200 (preliminary figure)
and in September it is 593,941 (preliminary figure).
October 2018 ... 571,200 people
September 2018 ... 593,941 people
Comparing the two figures,
the number of Koreans who entered Japan in October was
It is 22,741 people fewer than September.
However, comparing numbers in a single month does not make much sense.
It uses " 12- month moving averages multiplied by 12 ".
This " 12- month moving average is multiplied by 12 " means
In the example above, until October 2018
It compares the figures of one year
with the figures of one year until September 2018 .
12 months from November 2017 to October 2018 ... 7,570,673 people
12 months from October 2017 to September 2018 ... 7,620,409 people
If you do this way, you will balance the monthly fluctuations,
Immigrants from each other's country as a trend
You can check what kind of transition it is
The number of Koreans entering Japan is
The peak was 7,724,557 people in the year to July 2018 ,
Since then, the year-on-year gap continues to
It decreased to 7,570,673 in one year until October 2018
Actual numbers: traffic between the two countries
Total value of traffic between Japan and Korea
One year until October 2018 ... 10,367,866 people
One year until October 2017 ... 9,074,652 people
One year until October 2016 ... 7,156,544 people
One year until October 2015 ... 5,599,766 people
One year until October 2014 ... 4,967,389 people
One year until October 2013 ... 5,272,536 people
One year until October 2012 ... 5,607,687 people
One year until October 2011 ... 4,945,236 people
One year until October 2010 ... 5,358,617 people
One year until October 2009 ... 4,552,236 people
One year until October 2008 ... 4,847,889 people
One year until October 2007 ... 4,798,948 people
One year until October 2006 ... 4,396,604 people
One year until October 2005 ... 4,185,538 people
One year until October 2004 ... 3,907,284 people
([Source] author created based
on JNTO data and Korea Tourism Organization data)
In 2014 when statistics exist,
The total number of Japanese-Korean traffic was less than 3.91 million,
It has now exceeded 10 million people a year.
The growth was particularly large in the last three years ,
The number of Koreans visiting Japan has risen sharply
The biggest factor is that the number
of Koreans entering Japan has increased dramatically.
Number of Koreans who entered Japan
One year until October 2018 ... 7,570,673 people
One year until October 2017 ... 6,759,950 people
One year until October 2016 ... 4,944,509 people
One year until October 2015 ... 3,736,526 people
One year until October 2014 ... 2,599,128 people
One year until October 2013 ... 2,485,925 people
One year until October 2012 ... 1,934,813 people
One year until October 2011 ... 1,782,280 people
One year until October 2010 ... 2,348,462 people
One year until October 2009 ... 1,503,894 people
One year until October 2008 ... 2,584,258 people
One year until October 2007 ... 2,535,289 people
One year until October 2006 ... 2,037,806 people
One year until October 2005 ... 1,713,900 people
One year until October 2004 ... 1,558,950 people
([Source] author created from JNTO data)
The number of Korean immigrants was around 1.56 million in 2004 ,
It is a calculation that increased approximately five times
with 7,570,000 people this year.
Especially in the past five years ,
Korean immigrants are increasing by about 1 million every year .
The tourist visa exemption system
for Koreans has been made permanent since March 2006 .
Therefore, we abolished the tourist visa exemption system ,
If the number of immigrants falls to the level of 2004 ,
Korean immigrants will be reduced by one-fifth .
Japanese who visit Korea are flat
At the same time, let's check the number
of Japanese people who entered Korea.
The number of Japanese who entered Korea
One year until October 2018 ... 2,797,193 people
One year until October 2017 ... 2,314,702 people
One year until October 2016 ... 2,212,035 people
One year until October 2015 ... 1,863,240 people
One year until October 2014 ... 2,368,261 people
One year until October 2013 ... 2,786,611 people
One year until October 2012 ... 3,672,874 people
One year until October 2011 ... 3,162,956 people
One year until October 2010 ... 3,010,155 people
One year until October 2009 ... 3,048,342 people
One year until October 2008 ... 2,263,631 people
One year until October 2007 ... 2,263,659 people
One year until October 2006 ... 2,358,798 people
One year until October 2005 ... 2,471,638 people
One year until October 2004 ... 2,348,334 people
([Source] author created from Korea Tourism Organization data)
The number of Japanese who entered Korea reached
a peak of 3.67 million in 2012 ,
Half of that amounted to 1.86 million in 2015
when there was a MRES uprising
Although depressed, except for these two years,
In the 15 years since 2004 ,
it is stable between approximately 2 million and 3 million people .
In other words,
whether the Japanese people's feelings toward Korea are good or bad,
The number of Japanese travelers to Korea was not significantly affected
If the Japanese government freezes
or abolishes the tourist visa exemption system for Koreans,
The Korean side is also against Japan as a countermeasure
There is also the possibility
that the visa exemption system will be frozen or abolished.
When this happens,
it can not be predicted how far the number
of Japanese travelers to Korea will decrease.
Because, already in 2004 ,
the Korean government was against Japanese nationals
This is because the tourist visa exemption was implemented.
Worst case below 2004 levels
If the tourist visa exemption system is abolished,
traffic in both countries will decrease at once .
Are there any sanctions against Korea?
As mentioned above,
It tried to confirm basic data in the aspect of "human, thing, money".
It is natural to say, economic sanctions in any country,
Or if there is a situation such as a national abolition,
there will be some impact .
The question is whether it is big or small,
For example, if Japan imposes economic sanctions on Korea,
or gives notice of a Korea-Japan bond,
The Japanese economy will have a considerable impact
From the aspect of "money",
It has a huge amount of external net worth of ¥ 324 trillion
(approximately US $ 2,9596 billion )
For the Japanese economy, there is a net debt
of ¥ 7.1 trillion (approximately US $ 64.9 billion ) against Korea.
It is not a big deal .
But, along with that, in the crisis
For the Korean economy, who is suffering
from a shortage of foreign currency
of $ 120.0 billion (about 13.137 trillion yen) ,
7.1 trillion yen is an amount that can not be ignored .
In other words, in terms of money,
simply restricting Japan's investment in Korea ,
Japan has almost no damage
Can make a big blow to Korea unilaterally
Next, from the point of "thing", Japan is to South Korea,
We export capital goods that are the backbone of the Korean economy.
If Japan-Korea trade is limited , Japan will have a huge impact,
but More than that, it means life-or-death issues
for the Korean economy , or " death of the economy ".
On the other hand,
the only one sided blow to Japan is the “human” aspect.
Now more than 7 million people a year
Koreans are coming to Japan as tourists.
Koreans account for a quarter of foreigners entering Japan.
If the number of people suddenly decreases to one fifth,
There will also be an impact
that the number of tourists visiting Japan will drastically decrease.
However, the negative impact is limited to the tourism industry, etc.
There is no devastating impact on Japan's core industries.
From the above, the Japanese government is accompanied
by "restriction of traffic of people, goods and money"
Even if economic sanctions are applied to Korea ,
There is no big impact on the Japanese economy ,
On the contrary, it can have a greater impact on Korea ,
It is clear from the top of the numbers
If Japan imposed economic sanctions on Korea,
In considering which effect will occur on which
It showed just basic data.
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