South Korea, footsteps of the currency crisis due to sharp declines in exports
When it is abandoned in Japan and the United States, is it end?
https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/02011200/?all=1
2/1 (Fri) sentence /鈴置高史(Tsuzouki · Takafumi)
A red light went on to the Korean economy.
The trade surplus suddenly declines, and the relationship
with Japan and the United States deteriorated.
It is because the possibility of capital escaping appears.
According to the trade statistics (customs clearance)
It is because the possibility of capital escaping appears.
According to the trade statistics (customs clearance)
in January 2019 announced by the Korea Ministry of Commerce,
Industry and Commerce on February 1, exports decreased
by 5.8% from the same month of the previous year, to 463.5 billion dollars.
In addition to the worsening market conditions of semiconductors
In addition to the worsening market conditions of semiconductors
that accounted for around 20% of exports,
due to the tone of the US-China trade war, the number for China,
which accounts for a quarter of total exports, has decreased.
It is the second consecutive year's record record
It is the second consecutive year's record record
for the second consecutive year following the 1.3% decline in December 2018.
The second consecutive monthly decline has been in 2 years
and 4 months since 9 - October 2016.
Imports amounted
Imports amounted
to 450.2 billion dollars (a decrease of 1.7% from the same period),
securing a profit of 13.4 billion dollars.
However, given the fact that last year's trade surplus was an average
However, given the fact that last year's trade surplus was an average
of $ 5.9 billion per month, the rapid reduction of surplus width was highlighted.
Monthly export growth rate, Korea Customs Service,
South Korea's trade statistics have a unique
South Korea's trade statistics have a unique
"habit" that exports in January fall significantly.
In order to make the export of the year bigger,
In order to make the export of the year bigger,
the government runs into the company in December of the previous year
and exports it.
In reactionary exports in January decreases,
In reactionary exports in January decreases,
surplus width decreases and it becomes deficit.
However, the deterioration of the trade balance
However, the deterioration of the trade balance
this time is not caused only by "habit".
From November 2018, the rate of increase in export
From November 2018, the rate of increase in export
s (compared to the same month of the previous year) plummeted
and fell to minus 1.3% in December.
Export decline for two consecutive months is
There is a possibility that the market sees that
There is a possibility that the market sees that
"South Korea is signs of returning to Structural deficits".
Korea Customs Service, trade balance, unit (billion dollars)
If it is overlooked from Japan and the US, it ends
In the past, Korea came into a currency crisis when two factors overlapped.
(1) US dollar circulates from the world to the United States,
(2) Even if Korea's trade balance is in deficit or surplus
If it is overlooked from Japan and the US, it ends
In the past, Korea came into a currency crisis when two factors overlapped.
(1) US dollar circulates from the world to the United States,
(2) Even if Korea's trade balance is in deficit or surplus
its width will shrink - it's time.
"There is a vicious circle that the market is concerned
"There is a vicious circle that the market is concerned
that the Korean foreign currency will decrease
from the international environment and domestic circumstances
and the dollar-denominated debt borrowed from a foreign country
can not be repayed" and the capital flight will
become increasingly severe It gets up.
Every time Korea rents dollars from the United States and Japan.
Every time Korea rents dollars from the United States and Japan.
However, when the third factor of (3) the deterioration of relations between
the US, Korea, Japan and the ROK - overlaps, Korea became given up hope.
The currency crisis of autumn 1997 occurred as the dollar returned
to the United States at the same time in the Asian currency crisis.
At that time, Korea's trade balance was basically in deficit,
At that time, Korea's trade balance was basically in deficit,
so Market regarded Korea as a "dangerous country" and bought won for sales.
Because the US-ROK relations had deteriorated,
Because the US-ROK relations had deteriorated,
the US instructed not to lend dollars to Japan,
and Korea suffered disgrace to be relieved by the IMF (International Monetary Fund)
(See "United States Continuing to Warn" Korea's Betrayal "in Chapter 2,
(See "United States Continuing to Warn" Korea's Betrayal "in Chapter 2,
Section 4," Myth "The Disappearance of the US-ROK Alliance").
In 2008, South Korea recorded a trade deficit.
There occurred a return of the dollar to the US with Lehman shock.
Wong was sold violently,
Since the same year it was replaced
by Pro-American's LEE Myung-bak regime,
Korea succeeded in connecting US dollars, connecting US currency swaps
with the United States, China and Japan.
Korea also came into a currency crisis in 2011.
The sharp rise in crude oil prices and shipbuilding exports slumped
Korea also came into a currency crisis in 2011.
The sharp rise in crude oil prices and shipbuilding exports slumped
and the trade surplus surplus sharply declined
from $ 41.2 billion in 2010 to $ 30.8 billion.
In January 2012 it got a deficit of 2.32 billion dollars.
A European financial crisis was added to this, capital flight occurred in Korea.
In January 2012 it got a deficit of 2.32 billion dollars.
A European financial crisis was added to this, capital flight occurred in Korea.
In the beginning of September 2011,
the one dollar = 960 won fell to 1,200 won in one month.
However, at At this time too, Lee Myung-bak administration barely survived
the crisis by spreading the frame of Beg currency swap
in Japan and China and sending a message "There is a backing" to the market.
Wong finally settled around 1, 000 won at 1 dollar.
Wong finally settled around 1, 000 won at 1 dollar.
Song Korea's largest letter,
chief editorialist Song Ji-young of the Chosun Ilbo (then),
wrote that "the possibility of falling into a currency crisis has fallen
to less than 20%" after the decision of the increase in the number
of Japanese-Korean swap It was.
IMF crisis deja vu
Usually, when currency is sold, the currency authorities
Usually, when currency is sold, the currency authorities
will buy and support using the dollar reserved for foreign currency.
But the majority of South Korean foreign exchange reserves
The market is regarded as being turned into
But the majority of South Korean foreign exchange reserves
The market is regarded as being turned into
"a suspicious bond that can not be immediately converted into dollars".
In 2011, the Korean government and the Bank of Korea also
"It is okay because there are 300 billion dollars foreign exchange reserves"
In 2011, the Korean government and the Bank of Korea also
"It is okay because there are 300 billion dollars foreign exchange reserves"
Korea tried to counter the concern of default.
At the US-Korea summit meeting on October 13 the same year,
At the US-Korea summit meeting on October 13 the same year,
President Lee Myung-bak made a direct talks to President Obama
on the signing of a currency swap.
The Bank of Korea announced foreign currency reserves
at the end of 2018 to 403.7 billion dollars.
However, South Korea's Struggle and Struggle as,
international financial circles spurred the won selling,
suspecting the short of money in Korea.
The Bank of Korea announced foreign currency reserves
suspecting the short of money in Korea.
The Bank of Korea announced foreign currency reserves
at the end of 2018 to 403.7 billion dollars.
However, even if half of it can be used,
if Korea encounter a full-blown currency crisis,
Korea must compete against won selling on the exchange market,
Whether you can afford a dollar for redemption of bonds issued
Whether you can afford a dollar for redemption of bonds issued
by Korean financial institutions and companies,
Not guaranteed.
So, what happens to the 2019 crisis?
Trade statistics in January clarified the trend of trade deficit.
Not guaranteed.
So, what happens to the 2019 crisis?
Trade statistics in January clarified the trend of trade deficit.
The dollar's return to the US has begun with a rate hike.
The relationship with Japan has been
The relationship with Japan has been
the worst since diplomatic relations in 1965
That Korea the situation Far from currency swap.
Problems such as Korean wartime worker 's ruling,
dissolution of the comfort women' s foundation, radar irradiation incidents, etc.
Solving unable to make any prediction Problems that are likely
to get worse from now will be piled up between Japan and Korea.
The relationship between the US and the ROK is also the worst in history.
The relationship between the US and the ROK is also the worst in history.
In the preservation Park Geun-ne egime deploying
US and China an evenhanded equidistant foreign policy.
To the left wing Moon Jae-in regime that appeared after defeating it,
To North Korea who will not let go of nuclear weapons
Moon Jae-in try to help whenever the chance the economy.
On October 10, 2018 President Trumppe said in reply three times repeatedly
To North Korea who will not let go of nuclear weapons
Moon Jae-in try to help whenever the chance the economy.
On October 10, 2018 President Trumppe said in reply three times repeatedly
that "Korea can not do anything without US approval" in front of reporters.
He accused South Korea of helping North Korea's nuclear armament.
He accused South Korea of helping North Korea's nuclear armament.
U.S. dollar converted amount as of August 21, 2018 by WSJ
|
Partner country |
Amount of money
|
Concluding, |
Maturity date |
|
China |
360 billion yuan 64.0 trillion won （US $ 52.63 billion ）Termination ⇒ Restart? |
2014.10.11 |
2017.10.10 |
|
Switzerland |
10 billion francs 11.2 trillion won （US $ 10,90 million ） |
2018.02.20 |
Contract period is 3 years |
|
Australia |
AU $ 10 billion 9.0 trillion won ( 7.36 billion US dollars ) |
2017.02.08 |
2020.02.07 |
|
Indonesia |
115 trillion rupiah 11.0 trillion won (7.89 billion US dollars ) |
2017.03.06 |
2020.03.05 |
|
Malaysia |
15 billion ringgit 5.0 trillion won (US $ 3.66 billion ) |
2017.01.25 |
2020.01.24 |
|
CMI |
$ 38.4 billion |
|
|
|
Canada （Note2,3） |
Does not decide. Currency Canadian dollar and won |
2017.11.15 |
Does not decide. |
Note1, CMI(Chiang Mai, Initiative) Multilateral swap,
up to 30% if not linked with IMF financing
Note2, Exchange swaps with Canada,
swaps that central banks exchange currencies
Lend foreign currency of market intervention to central bank
It is not a currency swap
It is not a currency swap
Note3.Size and number of consultations each time
Does Chinese-Korean swap exist?
At the moment, the Bank of Korea calls it
At the moment, the Bank of Korea calls it
"has a currency swap with six countries."
However, it is a currency swap that is connected
However, it is a currency swap that is connected
with Canada and can not be used for central bank intervention.
Swaps with China have also expired on October 10, 2017.
The Bank of Korea explained it as "extended",
Swaps with China have also expired on October 10, 2017.
The Bank of Korea explained it as "extended",
but the Chinese government asked for confirmation only said
"Please listen to South Korea".
The Korean Bank itself also does not post "extended" on the website.
Naturally, the market thinks that
The Korean Bank itself also does not post "extended" on the website.
Naturally, the market thinks that
"Chinese-Korean swap should be considered as not existing and should move".
After all, South Korea can only rely on currency swaps with Australia,
Indonesia, Malaysia and Switzerland.
Both are not US dollars, they can borrow only the partner country's currency.
Even if converting to US dollars, it is a little less than 30 billion dollars,
Both are not US dollars, they can borrow only the partner country's currency.
Even if converting to US dollars, it is a little less than 30 billion dollars,
and it is insufficient for currency defense.
It is highly likely that the US and Japan
It is highly likely that the US and Japan
will not help South Korea in the future when capital flight occurs.
On the contrary, it may encourage it.
On the contrary, it may encourage it.
During the 1997 currency crisis, the United States did not lend dollars
"Korea to have a bitter experience, To let Korea hear what US said ".
However, the situation is completely different this time.
The United States is willing to abandon the US-ROK alliance in exchange
for North Korea's nuclear abandonment
(See "the disappearance of the US-ROK alliance" Chapter 1, section 1
(See "the disappearance of the US-ROK alliance" Chapter 1, section 1
"the US-North Korea summit meeting that broke the US-ROK alliance").
It is no wonder that the United States thinks that it will not be an ally,
It is no wonder that the United States thinks that it will not be an ally,
and if it is not well done,
it will hurt the economy of Korea that is entering China.
That is the same for Japan.
It is no longer a "quasi-alliance through the United States", and South Korea,
That is the same for Japan.
It is no longer a "quasi-alliance through the United States", and South Korea,
which intends to have the nuclear weapons of North Korea and the people,
will be treated as a virtual enemy.
It is normal practice to weaken the enemy 's economy.
It is normal practice to weaken the enemy 's economy.
I would like to mention this point again in a separate paper,
but it is not an amazing story altogether.
While taking the form of a trade war called a tariff hike,
While taking the form of a trade war called a tariff hike,
the United States is in a strategy of reducing China's national power as a
"virtual enemy."
It only applies to Korea in the form of "financial war".
鈴置高史 (Tsuzouki · Takabautomi)
A Korean observer. Born in Aichi prefecture in 1954 (Showa 29).
It only applies to Korea in the form of "financial war".
鈴置高史 (Tsuzouki · Takabautomi)
A Korean observer. Born in Aichi prefecture in 1954 (Showa 29).
Graduated from Waseda University Political Economics Department.
He was a Seoul, Hong Kong correspondent, Economic commentary manager,
He was a Seoul, Hong Kong correspondent, Economic commentary manager,
etc. at the Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
He was a researcher at the Harvard University Institute
He was a researcher at the Harvard University Institute
for International Affairs between 1996 and 1996,
I will serve as a Jefferson Program Fellow
I will serve as a Jefferson Program Fellow
at the East West Center (Hawaii) in 2006.
Leaving the company in March 18. In the book,
Leaving the company in March 18. In the book,
"the annihilation of the US-ROK alliance" (Shincho Shinko),
Near Future Novel "Korean Peninsula 201Z Year"
Near Future Novel "Korean Peninsula 201Z Year"
(Nihon Keizai Shimbun Publishing Co., Ltd.).
He received the 2002 Born - Ueda Memorial International Press Award.
He received the 2002 Born - Ueda Memorial International Press Award.
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