day 7

Things are still OK here.

As of 9am on 3/18, the recorded amount of radiation in the air in Shinjuku was 0.0486 microsieverts/hour.

I screwed up yesterday’s links. If you want to see the hourly radiation reading changes, you can go here:

http://113.35.73.180/report/report_table.do

(The column on the left is the max recorded value during that hour. The middle column is the min recorded value. The column on the right is the average. These values are in micrograys. 1 gray = 1 sievert. See, you get a little science lesson in these emails. The data they use on Japanese TV is that one chest x-ray exposes you to radiation of 5 millisieverts. That would be equivalent to 5000 microsieverts.)

To see the changes by the day, you can go here:

http://113.35.73.180/monitoring/past_data.html

The earthquake hit on 3/11 and the nuclear power plant started to really deteriorate on 3/15.

Yesterday, the big news in Tokyo (as far as our own personal lives) was that Tokyo Power announced in the late afternoon that there was a serious possibility that the demand would overtake the supply (even with the rolling blackouts) and create an unpredictable widespread blackout in the evening. It got cold in Tokyo yesterday (highs in the upper 40’s and lows in the upper 30’s) so the added demand caused by generating heat nearly overloaded the system. That plus the fact that more trains are running now (you’ve probably noticed that in my daily emails, the train capacity has gone up). This led to the government requesting the train companies to run fewer trains during the evening rush hour. And that created another mess of people trying to get home. At least the trains were running this time so no one had to walk. Miwa’s office let out early. Our office didn’t, but I wasn’t that affected. We Tokyo-ites are so dependent on the trains and subways that any changes to those turns into a big commuting nightmare.

And now the thing that seems to have everyone on the edge of their seats…..I was able to purchase some toilet paper! I was just walking by a convenience store and thought, “Let’s just see what kind of stuff they have in there. “ And lo and behold, they had some (not a lot) of toilet paper on the shelves. I bought a pack of 4 rolls (you were limited to one pack per customer). But no waiting in lines, no nothing. Simple. Just got lucky, I guess. When I was walking home with the toilet paper under my arm, I walked by the huge line of people waiting to get into the supermarket next door to our apartment. I’m not sure what they were all trying to get, but some of the old ladies were giving me steely looks at me holding that toilet paper. I felt like a gazelle amongst a pack of lions. Of course, no incident or anything like that, but it was kind of amusing to me. And this is where I get to make my joke. “But really, 4 rolls of toilet paper. How long is that going to last? A day? Half-day? Women….(shaking my head)…” J

Another observation. There is a small rice store in our neighborhood. Kind of like the one that the Aunt Takiko’s family runs (do they still run that? Or is that closed?) Anyway, back in the day, people bought rice at a rice store, but now people just buy it at a supermarket. So a rice store is one of those remnants of the past. But rice is one of the things that hard to get right now. I’ve hardly ever seen people at this rice store before, but yesterday, there was huge line outside. (For us, rice has not been a problem at all. Miwa’s family lives in Niigata, which is one of the prefectures famous for its rice. They periodically send us rice. We just happen to have a lot of rice still left over from the last batch they sent.)

To be honest, things aren’t that bad. I know I keep saying that, but really, it’s not that bad. I mean, for dinner last night we made sukiyaki.

But yes, the nuclear power plant situation needs to be constantly monitored. In the emails yesterday from the US Embassy was the first time the words “consider departing Japan” was used. Ok, now we are getting pretty serious. If you have ever wondered how the US government reacts when things happen in overseas locations, I’ll copy two of the emails I got yesterday at the bottom. It’s kind of interesting. But so far, Miwa and I have no plans to evacuate Tokyo or Japan. I do know of a few people, both foreigners and Japanese, who now have evacuated Tokyo or Japan. Actually, in Miwa’s office there has been some discussion (at this point discussion only) of relocating their Tokyo office temporarily into their Osaka office. It’s a Korean company and the Korean media is more like the US media in hyping the danger.

By the way, this might be a good place to paste this link a friend of mine sent. It’s a little heavy on the technical side, but it’s food for thought. I want to believe it because I live in Tokyo, but who really knows. Some of you might find it interesting, especially if you are into conspiracy theories.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/fear-the-media-meltdown-not-the-nuclear-one/

OK. I should probably get back to work now.

day 6

Good morning. We are still doing OK.

I will add a new feature today. At 3pm, March 16 the recorded amount of radiation in the air in Shinjuku was 0.0541 microsieverts/hour. This information comes from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government homepage (http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/INET/OSHIRASE/2011/03/20l3gj00.htm ). It’s all in Japanese. Please note, there is no consistency in the numbers used in media. Some talk in millisieverts. And some talk in microsieverts. 1 millisievert = 1000 microsieverts. So please make sure you know what decimal they are using when you are watching the news. I made the same mistake so please be careful. (It would be the same as comparing one kilometer to one meter).

I am at home this morning. Our company decided to be closed this morning and keep the employees at home (in Japanese called jitaku taiki). As the day progressed yesterday, the nuclear power plant situation was so volatile that our management decided to be ultra-safe and keep people at home this morning, just in case the situation continued to escalate (ie. a nuclear meltdown). A while ago, I got word that our office will re-open starting at 1pm since the situation is not that bad.

Things in Tokyo seems to continue to improve. Some random observations:

--The train service has improved and are now running at around 80%.

--The scheduled blackouts are still confusing. You basically have to wait until the scheduled time comes and see if you still have electricity—there’s really no other way to tell. Obviously, that makes any kind of planning near impossible.

--The food and water availability seems like it improves each day. However, I have not yet seen things like tissue, toilet paper, batteries, and instant noodles on shelves yet. I think for us, the first thing we will run out of will be toilet paper in a few days if we cannot buy any soon (this is where I get to make my male chauvinistic joke about “Why do women use so much toilet paper????”). Also, it is hay fever season so we are going through a lot of tissue (Miwa has hay fever. Fortunately, I don’t). There are other things that are hard to get like diapers and baby food, but that doesn’t affect us.

--Since I got the rare morning off, I did notice at the supermarket next door the line was about 50 people deep waiting for it to open (30 minutes before opening time).

--I appreciate all the offers to send us stuff, but so far that is not necessary. To be honest, I’m not quite sure how the various delivery services are operating. To give a few examples, FedEx and UPS has suspended service in the Tokyo area. I think this has to do with the lack of gasoline availability. They don’t know if they can get enough gasoline on a daily basis for their trucks to make deliveries. I’m not sure how the post office is.

--The TV stations continue to slowly return to regular programming. We are getting a little tired of seeing only news. With regards to the TV coverage, the TV station do broadcast what other countries are saying about the situation so it’s not like we are totally in the dark and being hidden from information. Obviously, the Japanese government point of view is most present, but we do know how seriously other countries are reporting the situation.

With regard to the radiation threat, in yesterday’s email I am not trying to belittle the danger. Of course, Miwa and I will take all necessary precautions, including evacuating Tokyo or Japan if it comes to that. I did get an email from the US embassy this morning that now recommends that people within a 80km radius from the nuclear plant evacuate (this is the first time they have contradicted the Japanese government (30km). Reminder: I am 250km away. Also as a comparison, the French Embassy has recommended to the French in Japan to evacuate from Japan if possible.) I am trying my best to take in all the information and make intelligent decisions.

When I write these emails, I am writing my opinions at that moment only. Things here are literally changing by the hour so please keep that in mind—an hour after I send the email, I might have a totally different view of my situation. But as of now, I think we are OK. On the TV coverage there are experts from Hiroshima University and Nagasaki University and they obviously have a unique expertise given what was experienced in their cities, and they keep saying currently things are safe in Tokyo. As of this writing, every expert on every channel keeps stressing that there is no reason to panic yet in Tokyo. Of course, the situation needs to be continually monitored closely and we will do so.

Please also note that I normally am writing this at work and I really should be working. So the timing I send these out and the length might vary from day to day. Please assume that does not have anything to do with our safety.

That’s going to be it for now. I need to get ready to go to work.

The ground is shaking right now (only a little so it’s very small tremor).

Wow, I was just rereading this and I need to stop using the phrase “Please note” J

day 5

We are still doing OK.

The blackout schedule is still confusing , but so far we have not experienced power outages at work or at home.

The food and water situation seems to be improving by the day. Takashimaya was open yesterday but only until 6pm. Other stores also have been open for limited hours. I’m not sure if this has more to do with conserving power or because of supplies. The supermarket next door to our apartment was open regular hours and did have more food on its shelves yesterday as compared to the day before. And I have noticed that convenience stores also have more stuff on its shelves today. Either way, the shelves are not fully stocked like before the earthquake and still out of certain things (batteries, instant noodles, etc), but is seems like they keep improving each day. So I do not think there will be any panics over food and water in Tokyo.

Some of the TV channels have returned to normal programming and we are now starting to see commercials again (although for some reason, most of the commercial tends to be ones that are made by insurance companies). How long did it take for things to return to normal in NY after 9/11?

Now onto the stuff I’m sure you’re really concerned about. Yes, an increase in the levels of radiation has been detected even in Tokyo. And yes, you really don’t know if the government is telling the entire truth or not. And yes, I am expecting the situation to get worse, not better, in the near future as the nuclear power plant situation plays out. However, so far Miwa and I have not had any thoughts of trying to evacuate—either out of Tokyo or out of Japan. I don’t think the situation is that bad. There are people in our office who are starting to get a little hysterical about the radiation, but I personally find it a little ridiculous that the same people smoke a pack of cigarettes a day. The cigarettes are much more harmful to the body than the amount of radiation that is currently being detected in Tokyo. So, you guys might think I’m being naïve, but I don’t think the situation is that dire yet. Yes, the nuclear plant situation is very serious and I appreciate all the concern, but I think the prudent thing to do right now is to calm down. (To answer a few questions—We live in the southwestern corner of the Tokyo 23 ward district, Miwa’s parent are in Niigata prefecture which is on the Japan sea side. And the Sudo relatives are in Tochigi, Chiba and Saitama prefectures—which is closer to Fukushima than Tokyo.)

To be honest, we are having to lives on a daily basis. The things were are having to think about are:

--Do you have enough food and water today?

--Will we have electricity today (at home and at work)?

--What will the public transportation be like getting to and from work today?

Living in fear of a nuclear power plant 150 miles away is not most pressing right now. It is scary and things are in constant flux, but we’re ok for now.

Things actually continue to improve (other than the radiation), such we were beginning to relax a little. Then a magnitude 6 earthquake occurred in Shizuoka last night around 10:30pm that felt pretty big to us in Tokyo (it was only like a 3 or 4 magnitude in Tokyo but Shizuoka is closer than Fukushima/Miyagi). Just a reminder that we still can’t let our guards down.

I’m on the US embassy email list and they keep sending out constant updates. I’ll paste the one that was in my inbox this morning at the bottom.

-----Original Message-----

From: American Embassy Tokyo

Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 2:36 AM

Subject: Message to American Citizens from Ambassador John V. Roos

March 15, 2011 02:30

Today our hearts remain with our Japanese friends who, after suffering this devastating tragedy just four days ago, have to undertake recovery and reconstruction and address the ongoing nuclear emergency.

We understand that many of you are anxious and have questions in the shadow of the Fukushima emergency, since we are in the midst of a complex, constantly changing, and unpredictable situation. In this fluid situation, our commitment to our citizens is to accumulate accurate information and assess it sufficiently in order to make important judgments.

Since the first reports of trouble with the reactors, American nuclear experts have worked around the clock to analyze data, monitor developments, and provide clear assessments on the potential dangers. While at times we have had only limited access to information, I am personally committed to assuring that our experts have as much access and information as possible, and the necessary resources to understand the situation. I have personally been deeply engaged in these efforts.

After a careful analysis of data, radiation levels, and damage assessments of all units at Fukushima, our experts are in agreement with the response and measures taken by Japanese technicians, including their recommended 20kms radius for evacuation and additional shelter-in-place recommendations

out to 30kms.

Let me also address reports of very low levels of radiation outside the evacuation area detected by U.S. and Japanese sensitive instrumentation. This bears very careful monitoring, which we are doing. If we assess that the radiation poses a threat to public health, we will share that

information and provide relevant guidance immediately.

The United States will continue to work around the clock to provide precise and up-to-date information supported by expert analysis to ensure the safety and security of our citizens and to help Japan in its time of great need. U.S. citizens in need of emergency assistance should send an e-mail to

JapanEmergencyUSC@state.gov with detailed information about their location and contact information, and monitor the U.S. Department of State website at travel.state.gov.

day 4

We are still doing ok today.

Yesterday, my office ended up closing at noon. With the scheduled blackouts, the trains near our office had announced that it would stop running between 1pm and 5pm. However, most of the areas scheduled for blackouts ended up not being blacked out. It was really confusing to know if you were going to get power or not. In the end, there were no power outages in Tokyo, but it wrecked havoc on any kind of planning—especially for the train companies. Given the chaos it created, today Tokyo Power announced that even in blackouts, the train companies would be supplied power. Even then, trains are only running at about 50 to 70% regular capacity to help conserve energy. Miwa’s office is next to the Tokyo Power headquarters, so her office probably won’t experience any blackouts. She worked until 4:30pm and was able to come home relatively easily using the trains.

Food and other supplies are starting to become a problem. We personally are ok for now—we probably have enough food and water to last another week in the worst case. Takashimaya was closed yesterday. I think it’s supposed to be open today. The shelves at the supermarket next door to our apartment are close to bare as of last night. There are some supermarkets in the area where you have to wait in line 30 min to an hour to just to get in. Food, water, batteries, tissue, toilet paper, etc are in very short supply. Other things like flashlights and candles are also sold out—people preparing for no power. There is also a big shortage with gasoline, but it doesn’t really affect us since we don’t own a car. No serious panics yet, but if it continues like this for a few more days I can imagine things escalating. People in Tokyo still have the attitude like, “Well, we can’t really complain given what is happening in the disaster regions.”

We still are experience aftershocks—big enough to wake you up while are sleeping. All but one of the free channels still show only disaster coverage all the time, so it’s getting to be a little tiring only seeing scenes of destruction. It’s almost like we are cut off from the rest of the world.

day 3

The weather is gorgeous today in Tokyo. Highs expected to be in the upper 60’s.

Getting to work was difficult this morning. The public transportation was running at about half capacity this morning. I go out of the city so my train ride was relatively ok. I can’t imagine what Miwa had to go through because she goes into the city. I bet it was a nightmare.

Our office is in one of the areas designated today for a blackout this afternoon so we’re trying to figure out how things will proceed. Tokyo has not been designated for a blackout as far as I know (the information keeps changing, so it’s hard to keep up and figure what is correct). It’s expected these rolling blackouts will last through April.

There seemed to be more food stocked in the convenience stores this morning, but still not 100%.

That’s it for now.