自由民主党を代表し、世界経済フォーラムに出席しました。
ダボス会議でのスピーチ全文を掲載します。
ダボス会議のセッション『Redesigning Government Exits（政府の経済対策の出口戦略）』の中で、竹本が行ったスピーチを全文掲載。（英語版）
Good afternoon. My name is Naokazu Takemoto, the discussion leader for this group. My official position is Senior Director for the Standing Committee on Financial Affairs in the Japanese House of Representatives. In our session, we addressed the theme of: Redesigning Government Exits. To begin, I wish to offer some comments on this topic, and then open the floor to discussion.
In Japan, following the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, we experienced what has come to be known as the "Lost Decade." In suggesting an exit strategy from the current financial crisis, I feel it is extremely important to convey to the world what occurred in Japan at that time. After the economic bubble burst, Japan injected about 12 trillion yen of public funds into its financial institutions. With this, a framework was introduced to write off bad loans and increase capital. While we avoided further destabilization of the financial system, it required until from 2003 and on for financial institutions to truly recover their earning power and management vitality.
In the present global financial crisis, a large number of countries have injected taxpayer money into their banks. On the other hand, however, I have the impression that the recipient banks are repaying those public funds at an extremely rapid pace. Naturally, because such funds are taxes paid by the public, it is necessary to pay them back without delay. Yet, as seen with the banks of the United States, while these public funds are being repaid, there has also bee a steady buildup of bad debt reserves. This indicates a high probability that large amounts of bad debt exist within the banks themselves.
In my view, rather than rushing to pay back the infusions of public funds, financial institutions should take active steps to dispose of the bad debts held by banks. If this is not done, there is strong chance that it will gravely impact the management of these banks in the future. Regardless of how sound the banks may appear to be, there is no meaning if they fall apart from the inside. I suggest that, in order to move forward with the writing down of bad loans, all countries need to introduce systems for also buying up non-performing assets from financial institutions besides those that have failed.
In the first place, in moving away from the emergency policy measures adopted soon after this financial meltdown, I believe it is necessary to skillfully combine both monetary and fiscal policy.
Let's take hikes in policy interest rates as a case in point. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, all major governments have lowered their policy rates to a range of between zero to just under one percent. I don't feel any country is capable of raising rates at the present time. To increase policy interest rates will require all countries to hike their rates at around the same degree at the same basic point in time. If that is not done, there is the threat that foreign exchange rates will deteriorate and other serious developments will occur.
As fiscal policy, the target must be to put finances on sound footing. The worsening of financial conditions raises the likelihood of oppressing a nation's economy. The key focus, I feel, lies in how to reduce the temporary expansion in public finances following the start of the financial crisis. This is true for Japan as well, which needs to announce measures to restore its fiscal health at once.
Examining the current situation in Japan, stock prices are comparatively stable. The unemployment rate, however, is over five percent, and shows no signs of easing. Both the real economy and jobs are in extremely severe straits. Against this backdrop, I think it is still too early to break from the emergency stimulus measures taken in the wake of the financial crisis. However, while economic policies are needed to support the struggling real economy and job sectors, I also feel that Japan has arrived at a point in time at which we must consider how to gradually withdraw from the use of emergency policy measures.
In getting economies back on the road to stable growth, we must remember that it is important not to rush. Rather, we need to budget longer periods of time to the quest to achieve genuine and lasting recovery.