株価と新NISA
日経平均株価が３９，０００円を超えました。(2月29日)
バブル期の株価と違い、今回の株高は日本企業の業績を反映していると経済アナリストは言っています。
米国の株は３０年前の10倍になっているので、日本の株高は正当と言えるでしょう。
しかし、この株高は外国人の購入割合が非常に高いので安心できません。
３月の配当月を超えた時、4月から5月に外国人は日本株を売りに出て暴落することも考えられます。
今は円安ドル高で150円の為替レートは、日本株が海外からみれば非常に割安に見えるからです。
今後日銀がマイナス金利を解除し利上げに進めば日本株は売られると思います。
また中国不動産バブル崩壊で、マンション投資は負の遺産となりローン不払い運動も起こっています。
近い将来、多くの中国不動産企業が倒産し金融不安、銀行倒産が起これば世界経済に波及します。
その時は、日本の株も暴落するかもしれません。
https://www.nli-research.co.jp/report/detail/id=77492?site=nli
2024年から新NISAで日本人も投資を始める人が増えている様です。
以前のNISAよりも限度額が大幅に増えたので、利益に対して税金２０％を払う必要が無いので
非常にありがたいことです。
投資信託、積み立て投資、株投資で得られた利益に２０％の税金が新NISAでは最大1800万円まで非課税となるので、運用しだいで大きな利益を得ることができます。
新NISAの詳細は金融庁HPで確認できます。
https://www.fsa.go.jp/policy/nisa2/about/nisa2024/index.html
貯金していても利息は得られませんから、投資を始めることを勧めます。
ただし、先ほどの円高から円安へ、中国バブル崩壊、ウクライナ戦争、イスラエルとパレスチナ問題、北朝鮮のミサイル、中国軍尖閣諸島から軍事衝突など株価暴落の要因は数多あります。
https://ccp-ngo.jp/palestine/palestine-information/
https://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/senkaku.html
新NISAで投資しても運が悪ければ、投資先が暴落、デフォルトするかもしれません。
投資先は５か所以上の分散投資でリスク回避することを念頭において下さい。
また、手持ち資金の５０％以上は投資しないことです。
常に３０％の余裕資金で投資し、暴落時は追加投資が出来るようにすることです。
新NISAの投資講座の勉強会と称して、授業料を払えば儲かると投資先を進める悪質な詐欺も横行しています。
そして銀行や証券会社のファイナンシャルプランナーも信用できる人を選ぶことです。
所詮、企業側の論理でお客の利益を第一に考えるFPは少ないでしょう。
投資先を決める時は、資料を読んで、FPの説明を鵜呑みにしてはいけません。
特にリスクは小さい文字で書かれている事が多いので注意して下さい。
投資先は、自分で考えて決めることが重要です。
投資先は、購入手数料が無料または、安いところ。
年間手数料が安いところ。
毎月配当が得られる投資は、要注意です。
投資先は、オールカントリー（通称オルカン）、S&P500などがお勧めですが、現在高値のため購入するか否かは判断が分かれるところです。
円安ドル高での海外投資は、為替損失もあるので要注意です。
少額の積み立て投資ならドルコスト均等法でリスク回避できるので、長期投資に向いています。
５年以内は、マイナスも有りますが１０年から２０年後にはプラスになることが実証されています。
しかし、将来のことはプロでも読めないので、投資初心者は「カモ」になるかも。
私の場合は、６５歳なので積み立て投資は向かないと思っています。
昨年までは、三菱UFJ銀行でNISAをしていました（ｅＭＡＸＩＳを５銘柄以上）が、今年は野村証券で新NISAをすることにしました。
すべて株投資に新NISAを使う予定です。
昨年の野村証券の利益は、約２５０万円でしたが、税金を約５０万円引かれたので純利益約２００万円でした。
また配当にも約２０％課税されています。
新NISAは年間投資枠１２０万（積み立て）＋２４０万（成長）で最大年間３６０万円。
総額１８００万（成長１２００万）まで非課税。
株式の配当にも非課税が適用されるので、株式の高配当銘柄は長期保有もお勧め。
新NISAで投資を始める人が増加していますが、失敗しても個人責任です。
家庭内では夫婦了解のもとで、余裕資金で投資する様にしましょう。
パチンコ、競馬、宝くじなどギャンブルに投資するよりは、手堅い投資と言えるでしょう。
Stock prices and new NISA
The Nikkei average stock price exceeded 39,000 yen. (February 29th)
Economic analysts say that unlike the stock prices during the bubble period, the current stock price increases reflect the performance of Japanese companies.
US stocks are 10 times more expensive than they were 30 years ago, so Japan's stock prices can be justified.
However, we cannot rest assured that this high stock price is due to a very high proportion of foreigners purchasing the stock.
When the dividend month of March is exceeded, foreigners may sell Japanese stocks from April to May, causing a crash.
This is because at the current exchange rate of 150 yen, with the yen weakening against the dollar, Japanese stocks look extremely cheap from an overseas perspective.
I think Japanese stocks will sell if the Bank of Japan lifts negative interest rates and raises interest rates.
Furthermore, with the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble, condominium investment has become a negative legacy, and a movement for non-payment of loans is occurring.
In the near future, many Chinese real estate companies will go bankrupt, leading to financial instability and bank bankruptcy, which will have ripple effects on the global economy.
At that time, Japanese stocks may also plummet.
https://www.nli-research.co.jp/report/detail/id=77492?site=nli
It seems that an increasing number of Japanese people will start investing with the new NISA from 2024.
The limit has been significantly increased compared to the previous NISA, so I am very grateful that I don't have to pay 20% tax on profits.
With the new NISA, the 20% tax on profits earned from investment trusts, accumulated investments, and stock investments will be exempted up to 18 million yen, so you can earn big profits depending on your investment.
Details of the new NISA can be found on the Financial Services Agency website.
https://www.fsa.go.jp/policy/nisa2/about/nisa2024/index.html
Since you won't be able to earn interest even if you save money, we recommend that you start investing.
However, there are many factors contributing to the stock price crash, including the yen's weakening from the previously mentioned strong yen, the bursting of the Chinese bubble, the war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian issue, North Korean missiles, and military conflicts from the Chinese military on the Senkaku Islands.
https://ccp-ngo.jp/palestine/palestine-information/
https://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/senkaku.html
If you are unlucky enough to invest with the new NISA, your investment may collapse or default.
Please keep in mind that you should avoid risk by diversifying your investments into five or more locations.
Also, do not invest more than 50% of your available funds.
Always invest with a surplus of 30%, and be able to make additional investments in the event of a market crash.
Malicious scams are also rampant, claiming to be study sessions for the new NISA investment course, and encouraging investors to make money by paying the tuition fees.
Also, choose a financial planner from a bank or securities company that you can trust.
After all, there are probably few FPs that put the customer's interests first based on corporate logic.
When deciding where to invest, read the materials and do not take the FP's explanations at face value.
Please be especially careful as risks are often written in small letters.
It is important to think and decide where to invest.
Investment destinations are places where purchase fees are free or low.
Low annual fees.
Be careful with investments that give you monthly dividends.
We recommend All Country (commonly known as Orcan) and S&P 500 as investments, but it is difficult to decide whether to purchase them or not as prices are currently high.
Be careful when investing overseas when the yen is weak and the dollar is strong, as you may incur foreign exchange losses.
If you are investing in small amounts, you can avoid risk by using the dollar-cost equalization method, so it is suitable for long-term investment.
It has been proven that within 5 years there will be negative results, but in 10 to 20 years there will be positive results.
However, even professionals cannot predict the future, so beginners in investing may be fools.
In my case, I'm 65 years old, so I don't think it's suitable for me to invest in savings.
Until last year, I was doing a NISA at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (more than 5 stocks of eMAXIS), but this year I decided to do a new NISA at Nomura Securities.
I plan to use the new NISA for all stock investments.
Nomura Securities' profit last year was about 2.5 million yen, but since taxes were deducted about 500,000 yen, the net profit was about 2 million yen.
Dividends are also taxed at approximately 20%.
The new NISA has an annual investment limit of 1.2 million yen (accumulation) + 2.4 million yen (growth), with a maximum annual investment of 3.6 million yen.
Tax-free up to a total of 18 million (growth 12 million).
Stock dividends are also exempt from tax, so it is recommended to hold stocks with high dividends for a long time.
An increasing number of people are starting to invest using the new NISA, but even if they fail, they are personally responsible.
At home, invest with the mutual understanding of your husband and wife using their spare funds.
It can be said to be a more reliable investment than investing in gambling such as pachinko, horse racing, and lottery.