Mr. Vande (30:31):
Thank you. Thank you very much. I think this is a perfect segue over to you, Minister Feisel. We had a big contraction of the global economies during Covid. We’ll come back to that, Stéphane. But now many countries are back at pre-COVID levels, most countries. And we see that growth is back. Not as high as it used to be, but growth is back. How do you from the Kingdom’s side see projection for the coming year? The Kingdom’s economy is doing pretty well and has also diversified. 50% of your GDP is now already non-oil related. So how do you look at global economic outlook?
Lord David Cameron (31:25):
So thank you, Borguet. I believe we view the global economy evolving, but still stuck in a low growth, I’d say, phase and it’s unevenly distributed. If you look, for example, at IMF’s recent projection, they’ve been increased to 3.2. But if you double click on that, you’ll see that advanced economies are between 1.6 to 1.8% for the coming year. And the US stands out a little bit at 2.7%. If you look at emerging economies, they’re a bit higher at 4.2%. Driven mainly by India, but also the Middle East and central Asia. India at 6.5, Middle East, central Asia at around 4.5% and more. So that’s not the growth numbers that we want to continue with. We want to see more global economic growth and that’s why we’re convening here. One of the themes is growth, and by that we mean inclusive growth. And how do we get there?
We believe there’s two things we need to focus on. One, productivity. Productivity has been going down since the global financial crisis. At 1%, especially advanced economies, at 1 percentage points, 1 percentage point per year. Maybe the US has seen an upward trend recently, but that’s still the story. In emerging economies, there are two groups. There’s the fast lane as some experts call it and the slow lane. The fast lane represents around 3.6 billion people. If they continue at that growth level, they would reach advanced economies level within 25 years. But you’re still leaving out 1.4 billion people and the economies that they live in. So, productivity needs to see a shift. We need to focus on the tools, the interventions that will help us grow productivity. And if you look at the fast lane countries, most of the growth or most of the performance came from very large investments. We’re talking about 20 to 40% of GDP in terms of size. That’s large.
(33:44)
It’s very hard for you to emulate that in emerging economies or most emerging economies. So policies need to be put in place. Investments need to be attracted to the right productive sectors so we can see an upward shift in productivity. That brings me to the second point, which is I’d say collaboration or fragmentation. A more fragmented world is a lower growth world. That’s a fact. And with fragmentation comes a lot of costs. So we might be happy with the growth rates in some areas, but we know that without collaboration, we can’t really achieve higher growth rates for the global economy. We’ve seen trade profiles change. We’ve seen countries geopolitically at distance from each other. We’ve seen despite that, 20% of trade is across these geopolitical lines, and 40% of that is actually in very crucial products that are highly concentrated.
So we need to acknowledge that no country or region can be self-sufficient in a very optimal fashion. Every region needs to import at least for 25% of its consumption from other regions. Coming together and acknowledging that, fragmentation is not the best solution. And actually thinking about what Anna said in terms of collaboration, putting together solutions to some of the things that are pulling us apart. And as an example, the recent Middle East conflict and the need for us to find a solution for it is just an example. If we succeed in creating, just as an example, peace in the Middle East, finally and a lasting piece, this will remove many of the headwind in front of global progress and global economic development. So we need to keep in mind productivity and fragmentation.
Mr. Vande (35:55):
Well, thank you. Thank you so much, Minister. And you’re so right. There is no countries that are in war or conflict that have even met the millennium development goals or the sustainable development goals. A prerequisite is that you also have peace. I think it’s an incredibly important point. Coming to you, Stéphane Bancel. I think we all know what Moderna is. We had this question, was it Pfizer or Moderna? You got the last vaccine. I still think we remember that. The reason why I mention this is that during Covid, it was this pandemic. We were also reminded that health is not only a cost, it also makes sense to invest in health and preparedness. It is a good investment. The cost of inaction far exceeds the cost of action. Before we looked at the costs are now increasing, maybe we can cut here or here. And how do you see, of course, not only to avoid future pandemics, but also how do you see as a pharmaceutical company that these can be investments and part of reviving growth?
Speaker 1 (37:18):
Sure. So thank you for having me today. Congratulations to the WEF and to the Kingdom for this great few days for this special meeting. And it’s really exciting to see the change in the Kingdom. I had a chance to come over the last 20 years and to see the dynamism, the optimism, and all the great thing happening. Congratulations. So I think too many people, too many policymakers, too many business leaders took healthcare as granted. It was a given. If you take it at a very personal level, if I’m sick, I cannot be a good husband. I cannot be a good father. And also I cannot be a good colleagues to my coworkers. And it’s true for every one of us. And so health is not a given, and I believe health is never a given. And it’s a bit like the environment. That’s an analogy I would like to draw here, which I think is important.
My wife likes to say bees don’t send invoices, but if we don’t have bees anymore, we are all going to be in big trouble. Trees don’t send invoices, but if there’s no more trees providing oxygen, we’re not going to last very, very long. And so I think it’s important that we always consider as leaders what is required to enable the prosperity of the people and the growth that is necessary. Just look along Covid. It is terrible. In the US so far, there has been 16 million people. 16 million people [inaudible 00:38:50] Covid, mostly young people in their 20s, their 30s, their 40s. You hear some stories were horrible. Somebody who used to be able to jog five kilometers a day can barely walk now because the lung damage there is permanent and is very profound around the world. Young people. 4 million Americans out of job right now because of lung Covid. Think about the impact it has on them as people, their families, and on the economy. Think about it has an impact on inflation just having this talented labor pool not available to create value.
(39:22)
A lot of time we talk about healthcare, but I would like to propose that we actually talk about healthcare, but it’s not healthcare that we’re doing as a society. It’s sick care. We’re mostly taking care of people that are sick. And if you think about it, we have to really invest much more in prevention. What I think is really exciting today is we are every day learning more and more about how our body works. I believe we are just years away, not decades away, years away from understanding most of the functioning of a human body. That is a miracle in the history of humanity on the planet. For hundreds and thousands of years, we had no idea how the body was working. Until recently, we used to bleed people when they were sick trying to help them. So think about the world where we can use that knowledge to help people not get sick. That’s how we’re going to really help a lot of people across the world, including people of course in low-income country. And I think that’s a solution. Too many times I talk with public health leader. And as you say, we talk about vaccine and we talk about cost. Vaccine is one of the best, if not the best, return on invested healthcare dollar. So we should really think about how do we prevent people from getting sick? The world will be much better and all of us can enjoy a great life versus taking care of people who are already sick.
Mr. Vande (40:43):
I think that was a very important message. And I will not forget what you said or your wife said about the bees are not sending invoices or the trees, but they’re doing a very important job. And also what we’re doing today is sick care and not healthcare. How can we also do more preventive-
Speaker 2 (41:08):
I was hit by Covid thrice, but my lungs are fine.
Mr. Vande (41:13):
I’m glad. But I thought that number of Americans with 16 million with lung Covid, it was a staggering number. But we don’t want to be at the end of the panel because I’m seeing the clock is really ticking up there. You can see it, but it tells us that we have to land. But I don’t want to end on a negative note either. So I was thinking, Stéphane, that I just read that Moderna is working on three new vaccines. I think they’re at trial with the experimental vaccines against new viruses. I guess that’s good.
Speaker 1 (41:59):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yes, we’re actually 28 that are in the clinic right now. Some will be approved as early as in the next few weeks. But the thing that excites me the most is what we’re doing in cancer. We have amazing data in skin cancer. We’re working with many regulators to get these to patients as soon as possible. And I think that because of progress that the scientific community is making in the basic understanding of cancer, I believe in our lifetime we’re going to see most cancer being able to be taken care of, which would be a wonderful hope for humanity. As you know, for so many families, we have all been touched by cancer to loved ones, and I think if you could live in a world where cancer is treatable and not a death sentence, that will be a big step forward for mankind.
Mr. Vande (42:43):
Next decade or in two decades?
Speaker 1 (42:46):
I’m talking years. Again, I’m talking years and I’m hoping that potentially as early as next year, we will have the first product on the market for cancer.
Mr. Vande (42:55):
Wow. That’s really… I think everyone has had someone, friends or family, that has been affected. I think this is also a bit of a segue back to you, Minister Faisal, because I think artificial intelligence also will play an important role in the future of healthcare, I guess, also sick care. But artificial intelligence can also respond to what you mentioned about decreased productivity. Productivity is really prosperity. When you can increase productivity, you can pay people higher salaries for doing less, or you can produce higher up in the value chain. I think you have an announcement on artificial intelligence to share with us today.
Lord David Cameron (43:55):
Just as a backdrop, maybe, Borge, and to answer your previous question as well. On the Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s economic evolution has been moving very robustly. Our non-oil growth, which is what we are very proud of, in 2022 when the Kingdom was the fastest G-20 economy in growth, grew at 5.9% and that momentum is still continuing till today. The IMF projects our non-oil growth to be 5% this year, 5.1% next year. So this is very important for us. Because of our diversification, by design, we’re moving away from very productive sectors like oil and petchems and financial services, which means there is a pressure on our productivity to decline. Since Vision 2030, that decline has slowed down, but we’re looking for more ways to improve productivity because we want to become a productivity-led economic growth story, not just a resource-led one. And that has led us to prioritize research, development and innovation, human capital development outcomes and investments in technology.
More recently, focusing on artificial intelligence as well. As a user, the government is one of the most active governments in terms of looking at a lot of policy areas and problems and trying to answer them, but also the private sector as an investor, but also as a platform for others to participate in. And because of that and because of what we said earlier, the importance of this kind of technology being inclusive. If it’s inclusive, this means it can create growth avenues in the lesser developed countries, if we focus on inclusivity.
So we’re very proud to be joining the AI Global Alliance that’s been launched by the World Economic Forum. The Kingdom will be joining this alliance as of now, and we’re also very much excited about working with the forum on this new initiative called Inclusive AI for Growth and Development. That’s one way the Kingdom will push the needle on the need for global governance, when it comes to artificial intelligence, but also making sure this technology is inclusive for optimal global growth outcomes.
Mr. Vande (46:12):
Bravo. Well, thank you. Thank you very much. And I think we then will be working together to make sure that AI can work in the interest of humankind. You know, the World Economic Forum is a Swiss based international organization, so I learned when I started at the forum that you have to be on time. It’s like the only place is in Switzerland if they start a meeting before the time. If you’re arriving at five and the meeting was supposed to be at five and they were a critical mass, it would just have started. And I see there is zero time left here, but I also felt the panel was so good, I would’ve liked to continue. But I learned from being a former speech writer that you should end when people still want you to continue because that’s mainly not the case when it comes to politicians. You want them to land.
So I think this panel has been a great panel. I would also like to use this unique opportunity when we are at the end of this summit, the special meeting, that has meant a lot to the World Economic Forum. It’s our first time in the Kingdom in our 55 years’ history. It’s incredible the changes that are taking place here. Also, the cooperation with the Kingdom, with Minister Faisal, but I see also many of the other ministers that we work so closely with. And also under the patronage of his Royal Highness the Crown Prince has been incredible. So we feel that this has been a highlight. In a world where we need, as Anna also said, to collaborate, more dialogue is needed and we have had 92 different nationalities, nations, represented here.
I would also like to use this opportunity to thank my teams at the World Economic Forum, together with Minister Faisal. I think they have not really slept that much during the last weeks. And the two last nights, I think there has been no sleep, but they’re very committed. I’m very thankful for putting all this together and I think we all aspire, if we are re-invited to come back to the Kingdom. I would like then to introduce for closing remarks, my colleague, our director for Middle East and North Africa, Maroun Kairouz. Maroun, thank you to you and your team and the teams for the incredible job.
Maroun Kairouz (48:54):
Thank you, Borge, for your leadership. Esteemed panelists, thank you. And first and foremost, thank all of you for your devoted engagement during the past couple of days for this first meeting in Saudi Arabia, as you said, Borge. The meeting has taken place at a crucial time for the region and for the world, against a backdrop of geopolitical fragility, so it was incredibly important that we hold it at this time.
At the closing of this meeting, I just want to end on a positive note, as you were saying, and mention some of the concrete outcomes or key discussions that took place during the course of the meeting. First of all, we hosted important dialogues on the geopolitical situation in the region to build trust between key regional and international actors and make progress towards peace against, again, a complicated geopolitical backdrop.
Another example is, we held similar dialogues with top government officials from key emerging economies, including Malaysia, Turkey, and Mexico, which are pivotal on global supply chains in the current geo-economic landscape. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation pledged to work together to help protect 370 million children annually from polio.
(50:37)
A new forum report was launched that explores how artificial intelligence could revolutionize education systems, for educators and students alike. While a new framework will chart a path for governments and employers to expand a global digital workforce.
We signed an agreement, as in the World Economic Forum, signed an agreement with the Saudi Space Agency to launch a center for the fourth industrial revolution to ensure that the fast-growing space industry contributes to sustainable economic development. As was just announced by Minister Faisal, Saudi Arabia will join the forum’s AI Governance Alliance on inclusive AI for growth and development to identify challenges and solutions to global AI access. On cybersecurity, we published a report on the guiding principles to enhance cyber resilience in manufacturing.
Together, we explored policy tools that can scale up the use of clean energy solutions while ensuring equitable growth. For instance, our Global Future Council on the Energy Transition, released a report detailing the geopolitical environment and economic implications of shifting from fossil fuels to critical minerals. The leaders for Sustainable MENA, a community of CEOs from the region, met to strengthen their corporate climate commitments and to help their suppliers, down the supply chain, to decarbonize. Our innovators from UpLink, launched, with the Saudi Minister of Energy and the Ministry of Economy, a new circular carbon economy initiative to source start-ups working on cutting-edge solutions for reducing, reusing, recycling, and removing carbon from the atmosphere.
Once again, please allow me to thank all of you for your devoted engagement. To thank Minister Faisal and his team for the great collaboration. And a big thank you to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for hosting us here. Have a great rest of the day, everyone.