EDITORIAL: H-3 rocket liftoff carried Japan’s hopes in global launch market
The successful launch of Japan’s new flagship H-3 rocket on Feb. 17 has opened a new chapter for the nation’s space program.
This comes less than a year after the failure of its inaugural launch in March last year, securing the resumption of the program. To earn the trust of potential international customers, it is vital to build a solid track record by steadily achieving successful H-3 missions.
The second H-3 Launch Vehicle mission was still described as a “test flight.” It is premature to declare that a system for stable H-3 operations has been established just because of a single successful launch.
One reason for the caution is that the investigation into the cause of the failure of the H-3’s maiden flight has failed to definitively identify why the second-stage engine failed to ignite.
To achieve a quick restart without compromising the integrity of the investigation, a method was adopted that narrowed the possible scenarios to three and implemented preventive measures for all of them.
One of the components related to the three scenarios is an ignition device used in the H-2A rocket, which has achieved more than 40 consecutive successful launches.
Ensuring the quality management of tried and proven components while incorporating the latest technology and insights to upgrade their performances remains a key and tough challenge for the space program.
The project manager at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) described the persistent challenge as the difficulty of continuing to use “mature technology.”
The H-3 rocket is intended for various government projects, including missions for establishing a base in lunar orbit, the International Space Station and satellites for national security purposes.
On the other hand, operations of the new launch vehicle will eventually be transferred to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., which co-developed the H-3 rocket with JAXA.
To move from dependence on government funding and support and attain commercial success, efforts have been made to improve engine performance and reduce costs by using commercial components while enhancing production line efficiency.
However, looking globally, rocky roads lie ahead for the H-3 program.
Indeed, there is a growing global demand for rockets due to the increasing use of a so-called small satellite constellation, a group of small satellites working together as a system to achieve specific purposes or provide services such as global internet connectivity.
Yet, in the United States, SpaceX boasts an overwhelming launch track record and other major manufacturers are fiercely competing in the development and operation of new rockets.
In addition to building on the reliability acquired through many successful H-2A missions, enhancing cost performance will be critical for the success of the H-3 program.
Last fall, the government created a “space strategy fund” of 300 billion yen ($2 billion) to support technology development and commercialization projects involving universities and private-sector companies over the next 10 years.
Earlier this month, the government outlined strategies in three areas: “transport,” “satellites” and “exploration,” and set a goal of achieving approximately 30 launches per year by the early 2030s, including rockets other than the flagship.
Whether the H-3 can win customers for its launch services in the global launch market will be a litmus test for the development of the entire Japanese space industry.
--The Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 18
（社説）Ｈ３ロケット 信頼獲得へ一歩ずつ
国の基幹ロケット「Ｈ３」の打ち上げが無事に終わった。昨年３月の初打ち上げの失敗から、１年以内に再開にこぎつけることができた。信頼獲得のために地道に実績を積み上げる必要がある。
今回はあくまで「試験機」という位置づけだ。１回の成功をもって、安定して運用できる態勢が整ったと評価するのはまだ早い。
というのも、失敗の原因調査で、第２段エンジンに点火しなかった理由を必ずしも特定できたわけではない。短期間で再開するという目的との両立を図った結果、考えうるシナリオを三つに絞り、そのすべてに再発防止策を講じるという方法をとった。
その対象となった機器の一つは、４０回以上連続で成功しているＨ２Ａロケットでも使われている点火装置だという。実績のある部品の品質管理を徹底するだけでなく、どう最新の技術や知見を反映させるのか。宇宙航空研究開発機構（ＪＡＸＡ）のプロジェクトマネージャが「枯れた技術を使い続けることの難しさ」と表現する悩ましい課題は、引き続き横たわる。
Ｈ３は、月の軌道につくる基地や国際宇宙ステーション、安全保障目的の人工衛星まで、さまざまな政府系のプロジェクトに使われる。
一方、運用はＪＡＸＡと共同開発に当たった三菱重工業にいずれ移管される。官依存から脱却し、商業ベースで成功するという目標のため、エンジンの性能を高め、民生部品を使うなどしてコスト削減を図り、生産ラインの効率化にも取り組んできた。
むろん、世界に目を向ければ厳しい現実が待ち受ける。
確かに人工衛星を通じてインターネットサービスを提供するような数多くの小型衛星を連携して利用する手法が台頭し、ロケットへの需要はますます高まっている。ただ、米国には圧倒的な打ち上げ実績を誇るスペースＸ社のロケットがあり、それ以外の主要メーカーも新型の開発や運用にしのぎを削る。Ｈ２Ａで積み上げた信頼性に加え、いかにコストパフォーマンスを高められるかがカギとなる。
政府は昨年秋、３千億円の「宇宙戦略基金」をつくり、１０年間にわたって大学・民間の技術開発や商業化を支援する。今年２月には「輸送」「衛星」「探査」という三つの分野の方針を示し、２０３０年代前半までに基幹ロケット以外を含めて年間３０回程度の打ち上げを実現するという目標も掲げた。Ｈ３が世界の市場で受注を獲得できるかは、宇宙産業全体の発展に向けた試金石ともいえる。