KEYNOTE ADDRESS FRIDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2023
HRH PRINCE SALMAN BIN HAMAD BIN ISA AL KHALIFA THE CROWN PRINCE, DEPUTY SUPREME COMMANDER OF THE ARMED FORCES AND PRIME MINISTER, THE KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN
SIR JOHN CHIPMAN EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, IISS
Welcome to the 19th IISS Manama Dialogue in the Kingdom of Bahrain. It is an honour to open this Dialogue in my new capacity as Executive Chairman of the IISS, and it is a source of additional pride to me that my successor is Director-General and Chief Executive Dr Bastian Giegerich, who won aglobal competition for the role, having worked for many years in the senior management of the IISS. I can assure this audience and our many friends throughout the region who could not be with us today that there has not been regime change at the IISS. We know how to divide our labours and how to join forces.
The result will be widened executive leadership at the IISS; it will ensure our unique strategic culture is maintained. We will become even more effective in generating data, producing analysis and exerting influence on the key issues of war, power and rules for our core international constituency of government, the corporate sector, and the expert and opinion-forming communities. We shall do so with our international staff from an international perspective and with international reach.
The IISS Middle East office in Bahrain, the Manama Dialogue, will continue as vital generators of data and ideas that contribute to more detailed understanding of geopolitical and geo-economic issues, and therefore more astute diplomacy and international policy. It’s useful to recall the origins of this IISS Manama Dialogue and of our presence here. It started with a conversation I was fortunate to have with His Highness the Crown Prince of Bahrain in London early this century. I noted that then,occasionally, leaders, foreign ministers, defence ministers and national-security advisers from the
Middle East would speak in Western capitals, and sometimes, Europeans, North Americans and Asians would come to the Middle East for talks. However, there was no institute in the Middle Eastwhere the voices of the region had an annual platform to project their strategic thinking to a wider audience. His answer was, ‘Great idea. Talk to our foreign minister’, who was then Sheikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa. A year or so later, the IISS Gulf Dialogue that became the IISS Manama Dialogue was born.
Every worthy ambition begins with a conceit. It was perhaps a conceit that we could aim to gather, in the Middle East, a security establishment of the region under our auspices. But it worked. And this Dialogue has continued to grow. Our high ambition for this summit persists, and we will be fully celebrating it at the 20th-anniversary Dialogue held here next year. This must persist as the essential platform for dynamic diplomacy on Middle East security.
We live in an age of thinking tactically. This Dialogue was established to sustain the art of thinking strategically. I want to thank His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa and His Royal Highness Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, for their vision, their trust and their unflagging commitment to the IISS to work here in Manama to advance and support the cause of international peace and security.
But how sad that this year we meet in such tragic circumstances: a horrific terror attack by Hamas on 7 October resulting in an Israeli decision to pursue a maximalist goal to eliminate Hamas that in turn may risk further escalation involving other states and other non-state actors. The Middle East moved from a process of diplomatic reconciliation, military de-escalation and new forms of economic cooperation to a dramatic revival of terror tactics, disastrous war, humanitarian catastrophe and even new sources of rage that may have generational effects. Shuttle diplomacy by Arab states, Europeans, Asians, Africans and others has been exercised at an unprecedented pace. International communiqués are being signed, summit declarations made, United Nations resolutions debated. Meanwhile, non-state actors are overtly testing state tolerances for their narrower aims, and big states are deploying force to the region to contain a multiplicity of threats.
The United States is now in the strange strategic position of having simultaneously to deter Iran from escalating, and deter Israel from escalating; and to deter Iran, it may have to deter Israel, and to deter Israel, it must deter Iran. Dynamic diplomacy is now required to create the conditions for a more stable outcome. When multilateral organisations are too large or too slow, it is vital that a coalition of the willing be formed to address, at the speed of relevance, urgent.
In my personal view, there’s a specific issue that key countries must address, which we should discuss at this Dialogue.
There’s a need to begin, somehow, to compose an administration-in-waiting for Gaza that can assume authority once the war ends; and to end the war early, the shape and composition of that administration must be seen to be believed, and once believed, take over. All this is happening at a time when leaders in this region are assessing the risk and opportunities of strategic diversification, hence the theme of this 19th Dialogue. As I’ve said before, moving from non-alignment to multi-alignment can be wise. Better to have many friends than only a few. Depending on only one supplier of security and defence can be risky.
Strategic hedging is a natural choice in an uncertain world. But strategic hedging, rather like financial hedging, requires active portfolio management. Political investments can turn sour. The value ofcertain asset classes can shift. Right now, Russia’s strategic currency is in freefall. Soon, some countries will realise that they are perhaps a bit overweight Russia, and will need to adjust theirstrategic portfolio accordingly. Others will decide that deepening trusted relationships rather than widening experimentally to others is a safer strategic investment. Small countries must be especially canny in the management of their relationships.
Therefore, it’s splendid that I can introduce the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Bahrain as our keynote speaker this evening. His Royal Highness is leading the government he has supported by Team Bahrain, a group of the best and the brightest, committed to working at speed and with sometimes stunning effect. The country’s approach to the COVID-19 pandemic was exemplary, professional and efficient.
Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018 to achieve a balanced budget, Bahrain has introduced taxes, reformed subsidies and reined in spending. Bahrain’s 2023/24 budget expects a budget deficit of less than 1% of GDP in 2024. Labour reform has picked up pace. Bahrain has embarked on several strategic projects to stimulate the economy. A new airport, a state-of-the-art amphitheatre, a sixth line of production at Bahrain’s aluminium smelter, Alba, making it the largest smelter outside of China. It has embraced new technologies in all fields, including government delivery.
Bahrain and the United States signed a Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement, CSIPA, on 13 September 2023. It affirmed the desire of both sides to expand their defence and security cooperation, trade and investment ties, and collaboration in science and technology. It signalled the commitment to work together to help deter and confront any external aggression against the territorial integrity of any of the parties. As the first agreement of its kind in the region,the CSIPA is an important milestone in US–Bahraini relations. It could constitute a model for deepening US relations across the region. These were all strategic decisions.
The content of good strategy is assured by the way in which strategy is conceived. Bad strategy that is conducted with a hot head and a cold heart inevitably leads to misfortune. Good strategy can only be crafted with a cool head and a warm heart. We have such a strategist with us today. He insists that accurate data be the source of informed decisions, has made empathy his guiding principle, good governance his mission, and savvy execution the inspiration for further ambition in the service of his nation. In other words, he is a leader. Your Royal Highness, he floor is yours.
HRH PRINCE SALMAN BIN HAMAD BIN ISA AL KHALIFA
Your Highnesses, Excellencies, distinguished guests, welcome. Welcome to you who have come from inside Bahrain, welcome to you who have come from all over the Arab world and the region, and welcome to you who have come incredible distances – from the United States, from New Zealand, from all corners of the earth. We’re very grateful you are here. There has never been a more urgent time for us to collaborate and coordinate. Dr John Chipman, thank you so much for that introduction.
It warms my heart. That was nearly 20 years ago that we spoke in London, and what has been built over the years has been a wonderful tribute to all of the great thinking, the minds, the challenges that the world has faced over this very interesting but, I think, fundamentally transformative time.
We were right in the middle of the peace dividend at the end of the Cold War, entering into the new world order where countries had broken, new vacuums were created, September the 11th was still on people’s minds, to where we are today, pre-COVID, I would say, potentially with a fully functioning international order that has suddenly, after COVID, looked a little bit shaky.
So, without further ado, I had accepted to speak before 7 October, and my subject matter that I was going to speak about was the global rules-based order. And I was going to specifically discuss CSIPA (Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement) and all of the great benefits, and all of the dangers that associations and integrations such as that will play going forward in the international community.
Well, 7 October happened. So now that the war is raging in Gaza, that must take precedence, and I must speak on it. It is a tough job, and many speeches have been given about the situation as it stands today. I had the honour of delivering Bahrain’s speech at the Islamic Conference in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, ably organised, I must say; and this speech is going to be slightly different. This is not a positional speech with a regurgitated copy that keeps being repeated over and over again. So, forgive some colourful language, potentially, forgive some interesting language, potentially.
But when I say it’s a tough job, it can’t be as tough as living under the constant bombardment of bombs in Gaza today, with no running water, no running sewage, no internet, no phones, and the lack of surety if you’re going to wake up tomorrow or if you’re not. This is an intolerable situation, and we must do everything in our power to stop it. Now, both in Islam and Judaism, the protection of innocent life is a duty and a moral responsibility. In the Quran, it says that the killing of an innocent – an innocent is clearly defined as one who has not spread corruption in the land or committed murder – is akin to killing all of mankind. And in the Abrahamic faith, the saying is, ‘To save a life is to save all of mankind’. How wonderful.
Now, both sides in this conflict haven’t lived up to that, and I think our condemnation must be to both. I condemn Hamas unequivocally. This is so everybody in the room can understand that I stand on the side of civilians and innocents and not on the side of political posturing. The attacks on 7 October were barbaric, were – how can I put it, they were horrific, they were indiscriminate, they killed women, children, elderly; did not matter. They hit civilian institutions, and they hit military targets. And on top of that, it seems it’s okay now to grab hostages and take them away and speak
about it as if it’s an act of war. That is something that we condemn, and we condemned it on 9 October, I believe, or 8 October.
Now, Israel. I unequivocally condemn the air campaign that resulted in the death of over 11,000 people in Gaza, 4,700 of which are children. Now, both of these actions have led to the death of innocents. Both of these actions did not save the entirety of mankind and, in effect, are the equivalent of killing all of mankind. Both are reprehensible, both must stop, and both are a thing that we must deal with, with the greatest care moving forward, because what we need to do is to break this cycle.
And let me speak a little bit prescriptively about how I think this can be achieved. Two of the most important things we must do today are to get the hostages out, and in order to do that, we have read an open source that the State of Qatar is working alongside with its partners in the United States and in Israel and with Hamas to release hostages, in exchange, we read – this is not corroborated – for prisoners who are also held within the State of Israel. Now, this is to release women and children on both sides, non-combatants, innocents. And this, I believe, is one component of what will achieve a break in hostilities. You want to call it a ceasefire, you want to call it a pause, you can call it whatever you want. The intention is a break so people can take stock, people can bury their dead, people can finally start to grieve, and maybe people can start to ask themselves about the intelligence failure that led to this crisis in the first place; but let’s get to that later.
And the second thing that I think is needed is for the role of international law to be fully implemented in the conduct of war, and that is to allow the access of humanitarian aid. We have seen what has happened at the Shifa Hospital, Al-Quds Hospital, name it. Any facility that is caring for the weak, the young, and the sick, we need to be sure that we can provide them with medicine, we need to be sure that we can provide them with fuel so that they can run their machines, their incubators. We need to be providing the people of Gaza with food. And I genuinely believe that the only way to achieve this is to achieve this hostage trade as soon as humanly possible.
So, from this stage, I call on Hamas to release the hostages: the women and children, who they hold hostage in exchange. And I call on the Israelis to release the women and children they hold in exchange so that we can get some sense and a few days, or weeks, or months, or maybe years of peace and calm. I don’t think any Arab leader has called on Hamas to release the hostages. So, it is a time for straight talking, it is a time where political positioning – and actually, the perpetuation ofpoisonous narratives, opposing narratives must no longer be our methodology. We’re all here to end this war. I don’t care who started it, I don’t care who will end it. I care that we all work together to make sure that it ends as quickly as possible.
So, building on that, we all know that this conflict didn’t start on 7 October. This latest escalation did, but the conflict has been an ongoing open wound in the Middle East for the past 80 years. And here’s the kicker: no real security will ever be realised until a real two-state solution is found. So, preserving this path to peace will demand strong leadership from us in the region and primarily from the great powers, and specifically from the United States. We believe that the United States is indispensable in leading this process. So, if that is the case, let’s try and draw some red lines, somewhat along the lines of the Tokyo Declaration.
And let me be extremely clear what matters to the Kingdom of Bahrain. There must be no forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, now or ever. There must be no reoccupation. There must be no reduction in Gaza’s territory. And on the other side, there must be no terrorism directed from Gazaagainst the Israeli public. So, that is very clear. Those are the red lines. And central to this, central tofinding that two-state solution, is that the Palestinian people’s hopes and aspirations must be at the centre of any post-crisis governance.
In the immediate aftermath of the war, conditions must be set to deliver elections. This is something President Mahmoud Abbas called for at the Islamic Conference. This is a key demand, and the Palestinian Authority is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people today. Listen towhat he’s saying. Elections will lead to that, lead to a strong, unified leadership across Gaza and the West Bank that can deliver hope and prosperity to the Palestinian people for years to come. And not only that, this organisation – this process, must lead to a serious interlocutor and partner in delivering a just and lasting peace with a viable and independent Palestinian state as its goal, and also deliver security and stability to its Israeli neighbour.
Now, failing all this and allowing the base rules of war to govern the outcomes here in the Middle East will only increase a very worrying trend I have seen on the international stage, and that is the erosion of the rules-based order. This is something that I was going to speak about. This is now actually putting it even sharper focus. Military conflict or use of force cannot be the final arbiter in international disagreement. Diplomacy and international law must win. This stands here in Gaza and in the aspirations of Palestinian people, it stands in Russia and Ukraine, it stands in any other geography where people may fight over territory. And if we allow these institutions to erode, then I promise you what you’re seeing in Gaza will just be the beginning of powerful states imposing their will on weaker states, and nothing will stop it spreading until we are in a conflagration that consumes a great proportion of the world.
So, ladies and gentlemen, I am not one to speak for too long. I think I’ve been extremely clear. The abhorrent, abominable situation that the civilians of Gaza are existing under right now is something that I cannot, in good conscience, just let slide. We have to do everything in our power to prevent this, and that means working across lines, political lines, working with all of the parties involved to make sure that our voice, our reason, our best wishes for everybody get through.
And I’ll leave you with one image. There’s a worrying concern I have, which is the Russian invasion of Afghanistan created al-Qaeda, the invasion of Iraq allowed ISIS (the Islamic State) to flourish in the vacuum. Think what this will create in the age of social media. Not only do we risk the abject misery of a whole population, but we are creating the conditions for acts of violence to spread all over the world, and failing – our inability to stop it, so encouraging them to do those things that need to bedone to stop the war, I think we will be looking at a far more difficult next 20 years.
So, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for taking the time to listen, and I wish you all the success in changing the narrative. Thank you.