First posted in Japanese: October 8, 2025
Official headline: The Osaka-Kansai Expo will end with a massive deficit of over ¥300 billion
Yesterday, television reported that the Osaka-Kansai Expo is expected to post a surplus of ¥23-28 billion. However, this figure only reflects operating expenses. It doesn't take into account construction costs at all. As of February, national and local government expenses totaled a maximum of ¥311.5 billion. The business community also contributed ¥78.3 billion to the venue construction costs, meaning that even a conservative estimate suggests a total of ¥389.8 billion has been spent.
For the basis for these figures, please see the Mainichi Shimbun article below.
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250412/k00/00m/040/172000c
If infrastructure development is included, the total will exceed ¥13 trillion.
https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20231219/mpj/00m/040/044000f/20231219k0000m040094000p
Therefore, even if the operational balance is in the black between 23 and 28 billion yen, the overall figure will likely be a massive deficit of over 360 billion yen.
They claim that this figure exceeds the surplus of the 1970 World Expo in Japan (19,439,402,017 yen), but EXPO '70 must have been calculated based on the overall balance, and of course, the monetary value is completely different now than it was 55 years ago. To me, this statement seems crazy.
Moreover, as it has been pointed out to me many times, 90% of advance tickets were purchased by companies and organizations, and only 10% were purchased by the general public. Furthermore, children living in Osaka Prefecture are being admitted using Osaka Prefecture money to purchase their tickets. Fukui Prefecture is also using public funds to invite children to the Expo. The revenue, which is said to have brought in a surplus, includes a large amount of tax.
In addition, the expenditures do not seem to include the land improvement costs for Yumeshima, which are said to cost 80 billion yen with an eye toward a casino, so the actual expenditure is likely much greater, resulting in an even larger deficit. Perhaps they are trying to say that the land improvement costs are not included because they are not just for the Expo.
As I have written many times over the past two and a half years, the idea of a World Expo is now an anachronism. If they are to truly aim for a surplus, they will need to attract around 48 million more people with 7,500 yen tickets to recoup their expenses.
It seems absurd to expect more than double the number of visitors that Tokyo Disney Resort saw in six months (13,779,000 last year), when the main exhibits are lacking and people have to pay high admission fees, travel costs, and accommodation costs. Of course, since it was a limited-time event, some people may have paid for it out of their own pockets, feeling a sense of specialness that they might not experience many times in their lifetime, but what percentage of visitors were they?
Referenced article:
Attendance Numbers | My First Time with the OLC Group | To Our Shareholders and Investors (Oriental Land)
https://www.olc.co.jp/ja/ir/olc/group05.html
Some people who visited this Expo say things like "It was interesting" or "It was fun." That's a subjective, personal matter, so it's hard to criticize. In contrast, at the 1970 Expo, many people had a "shocking, first-time experience." I suspect that very few people had such an experience at this Expo. In a sense, I believe this was the biggest difference.
And this Expo didn't become a catalyst for major social change. The period around 1970 was the height of Japan's period of rapid economic growth, and even aside from the Expo, it was a time of great change for Japan.
As wise people will already know, the historical contexts of 1970 and 2025 are very different. I believe that the successful experience of 55 years ago has effectively led to failure. If you would like, please take a look at my previous posts.
If there are any errors in the figures related to monetary amounts in this post, I would like to honestly correct them.
This is all I can write today, as of October 8th. I may add or correct more in the future. Thank you for your understanding.