ment March 2014 macroeconomic observation "Do not forget the" bottom line "," 2014 March 26 day).However, through a detailed analysis of the economic data of the first quarter, we found they found a worrying phenomenon. The pastair jordan spizike pas cher
seven quarters (second quarter 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013) is different from the first quarter of 2014 GDP growth decline is no longer subject to inventory adjustment drag, but because there has been a significant decline in final demand.As we all know, China's GDP quarterly data are based on statistical production method, according to the National Bureau of Statistics does not publish quarterly GDP estimates by expenditure approach and its growth rate. In theory, these two methods of statistical estimates GDP growth should be consistent; in practice, although there are a variety of statistical errors and omissions, but they should be fairly close to the measure. Statistics by expenditure approach, GDP represents the total demand in the economy, including fixed capital formation, consumption (including family and government consumption), net exports and inventory investment. Total demand in the top three can be called final demand, and inventory investment can be regarded as intermediate demand.According to this theoretical background, we established in 2006 on an econometric model, the total demand for monitoring the economy (ie GDP) deviated from the final demand. This model in October 2007 to help us to successfully predict a sharp decline in China's economy in the next six quarters, but also help us in December 2008 successfully predicted the 2009 V-reversal of China's economy (see Figure 1 ).The model shows that in seven quarter 2012 to second quarter of the fourth quarter of 2013, the Chinese economy has continued to reduce inventory scenarios. Altho
ugh the growth rate of final demand has remained at a high of 7.8% -9.4% of the total demand (ie GDP or output) growth rate has been hoveringair jordan 13 retro pas cher
at 7.4% -7.9% of the narrow range, reflecting the gap between the two It is the behavior of enterprises will reduce inventories. In this case, we are not particularly worried about the economic outlook, as long as final demand growth to maintain a certain level of inventory reduction will end sooner or later, when aggregate demand (ie GDP or output) growth rate will rise to the consistent level of growth of final demand.However, make us uneasy is, GDP (ie aggregate demand) in the first quarter of this year although the growth rate reached 7.4 percent, unchanged from the third quarter of 2012, but the growth rate of our model estimates out of the final demand was only 7.0%, compared with substantial decline of 8.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, 1.1 percentage points, becoming the 14 years (ie since 2000) the lowest growth in a quarter. The sharp decline in the growth rate of final demand far exceeds the total demand (or output) growth declined, resulting in the phenomenon of "passive" plus inventory.Our concern is that if the government does not take any measures "steady growth", the next few quarters, the growth rate of final demand is bound to further decline to less than 7% level. If so, the first quarter of this year, "passive" plus inventory will soon be transformed into "active" down of inventories (because companies will eventually decline to respond to growing demand by actively cuts), which means that after three quarters of this year, GDP ( That total demand) growth will be less than 7.0%, resulting in annual GDP growth rate below 7.0% can not be achieved at the beginning of the government to set economic growth target of 7.5%!The nec
essity of "steady growth"After the first quarter economic data released, the central government adopted a series of policies and measures to give the market a "steady growth" policy intentions. However, most economists are clearly opposed to the government to take "stimulus" policies or loosen policies to prevent a repeat of the Great Leap Forward investments, resulting in ever again fall in the Chinese economy is not sustainable high growth mode. It should be said that these views have their rationality, it reflects the entire academic, market, and public expectations for a strong and unwavering commitment to China's economiair jordan 11 gamma blue
c restructuring, highly consistent with the policy orientation of the new generation of leadership, this sensible and sober is worth commendable and gratifying.I certainly oppose the government to take "stimulus" policies again. However, no "stimulus" does not mean doing nothing. In the current economic situation, we really need to take timely macroeconomic policy-making departments modest "steady growth" policies to prevent further decline in the growth rate of final demand, ironing possible excessive fluctuations of the economy. Otherwise, once missed the best time to "steady growth" will not only dramatically increase the risk of China's economy and the financial system in the next few quarters, but it is possible to force the authorities to take greater stimulus measures after 2-3 quarters would ultimately outweigh the benefits.Many people think, GDP growth rate below 7% is no big deal, after all, the employment situation is not bad. If economic growth does not affect the decline in employment, the need to "steady growth" will be greatly reduced. I agree with this logic (ie, one of the main purpose of "steady growth" is steady employment), but do not agree with th