我が老父は、中国に心酔している。
少年時代（戦前）、満州、いわゆる現在の中国東北部におり、中国人に世話になったのだろう。ことあるごとに中国の偉大さをほめる。この点、外資系企業勤務で、中国人のすることなすことに懲りまくり、大の中国嫌いになった私とは完全に好対称をなしている。
それはさておき、老父は、かねてより「中国は３つの国に分かれる」という説を唱えている。発展著しい沿海部に対し、いまだ貧困にある内陸部の不満が暴発し、革命が起こり、最低でも３つの国に分断されるという予測を立てている。長く騒乱を経てきたあの国だけに、あながち荒唐無稽な説でもないと思う。
さて、先日、夫が、「お父さんの説を盗んだ学者がロシアにいるよ」と言って、アメリカのメディアに出た記事を教えてくれた。ロシアのイズベスチア紙が、同国の政治学者Igor Panarin（60歳）におこなったインタビュー記事を転載したものであった。Panarin氏は、今回の金融危機により、米国の債務は雪だるま式にふくらみ、もはや米ドルは基軸通貨性を失い、経済はすでに崩壊、世界経済のけん引役は今後中国とロシアに移る、という。国民の多数が資産を失い、失業者があふれ、オバマが奇跡でも起こせるなら別だが、それが無理なことは春ごろまでには明らかになる、という。ここまではさほど目新しい説でもないかもしれないが、続いて、「米国が６つに分かれる」と唱えるのには興味を持った。その６つというのは、多数の中国移民を抱える太平洋岸、多数のヒスパニック移民を抱える南部、もとより独立機運のあったテキサス、大西洋岸、ネイティブアメリカンを抱える中部の貧しい５、６州、そして、カナダの影響が強い北部の数州、だという。
ふむふむ。おもしろい。「分かれる」というのは、おのおのが「国家」を形成するのか、それとも大統領は一応存在を続けるけれど、「自治区」のようなテリトリーを構成するのかどうか、そこまでは書いてなかったけれど。
なお、この学者は、最後に「ロシアはアラスカを取り戻せばいい。あれはリースしているんだから」と付け加えた。冗談半分で言ったのだとは思うが、いまだアラスカをそういう目で見ているロシア人もいるのだな、と面白かった。
念のため、詳細に読みたい方のために、夫からもらった記事の原文を貼り付けておきます。
RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA
Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET
A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
少年時代（戦前）、満州、いわゆる現在の中国東北部におり、中国人に世話になったのだろう。ことあるごとに中国の偉大さをほめる。この点、外資系企業勤務で、中国人のすることなすことに懲りまくり、大の中国嫌いになった私とは完全に好対称をなしている。
それはさておき、老父は、かねてより「中国は３つの国に分かれる」という説を唱えている。発展著しい沿海部に対し、いまだ貧困にある内陸部の不満が暴発し、革命が起こり、最低でも３つの国に分断されるという予測を立てている。長く騒乱を経てきたあの国だけに、あながち荒唐無稽な説でもないと思う。
さて、先日、夫が、「お父さんの説を盗んだ学者がロシアにいるよ」と言って、アメリカのメディアに出た記事を教えてくれた。ロシアのイズベスチア紙が、同国の政治学者Igor Panarin（60歳）におこなったインタビュー記事を転載したものであった。Panarin氏は、今回の金融危機により、米国の債務は雪だるま式にふくらみ、もはや米ドルは基軸通貨性を失い、経済はすでに崩壊、世界経済のけん引役は今後中国とロシアに移る、という。国民の多数が資産を失い、失業者があふれ、オバマが奇跡でも起こせるなら別だが、それが無理なことは春ごろまでには明らかになる、という。ここまではさほど目新しい説でもないかもしれないが、続いて、「米国が６つに分かれる」と唱えるのには興味を持った。その６つというのは、多数の中国移民を抱える太平洋岸、多数のヒスパニック移民を抱える南部、もとより独立機運のあったテキサス、大西洋岸、ネイティブアメリカンを抱える中部の貧しい５、６州、そして、カナダの影響が強い北部の数州、だという。
ふむふむ。おもしろい。「分かれる」というのは、おのおのが「国家」を形成するのか、それとも大統領は一応存在を続けるけれど、「自治区」のようなテリトリーを構成するのかどうか、そこまでは書いてなかったけれど。
なお、この学者は、最後に「ロシアはアラスカを取り戻せばいい。あれはリースしているんだから」と付け加えた。冗談半分で言ったのだとは思うが、いまだアラスカをそういう目で見ているロシア人もいるのだな、と面白かった。
念のため、詳細に読みたい方のために、夫からもらった記事の原文を貼り付けておきます。
RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA
Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET
A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
