引用http://www.polarfuturesgroup.com/
“Is it the middle of April or the middle of August? The weekly trading volume of shares on the US indices and the number of futures contracts that traded this week was the lowest since last summer and among the lowest weekly levels of the past several years. This low volume has reduced price volatility with the VIX index trading back to down to levels not seen since the beginning of October last year before the equity price decline started. Even the volatility in the G7 currencies is the lowest it has been since the middle of 2014!
So, it’s quiet out there….what does that mean? Equity markets are only a couple of percentage points from all-time highs, things must be good! The central banks have done their job, they have all gone back to accommodative policy stances, and China easing more aggressively. We have gone from worries of a global slowdown to not worrying at all because the central banks have our back, and in that environment taking more risk pays. The central banks must know what is best right?
However, when we see broad markets get this quiet, it usually means we are about to get a rude surprise. When things coil up, it is common to see some explosive moves. Given the very low level of volatility, it may be an opportune time to buy some protection.”
備えあれば憂いなし。
転ばぬ先の杖。
Look before you leap..