Late October, Chinese and Russian war ships sailed from the Japan Sea to the Pacific Ocean, passing through the Tsugaru strait, then sailed southward along the Japanese mainland and returned to the East China Sea, passing through the Osumi strait. The Chinese and Russian fleet sailed around the Japanese islands.
Some Russian war ships are already equipped with Tsirkon, hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile, which flies at as fast as Mach 9. There is no defending for the US military against Tsirkon. [1]
Russia has already succeeded in launching Tsirkon from submerged submarines. [2]
It is quite likely that Chinese and Russian attack submarines accompanied the Chinese and Russian surface combatants when they sailed around the Japanese islands.
China also has already deployed DF-100, hypersonic cruise missile. There is no defending for the US military against hypersonic cruise missiles.
[DF-100, Chinese hypersonic cruise missile]
2．Russian and Chinese hypersonic glide vehicle
In addition, Russia has deployed Avangard, hypersonic glide vehicle, and China has deployed DF-17, hypersonic glide vehicle.
While conventional ballistic missiles fly in predictable high-altitude parabolic trajectories, hypersonic glide vehicles glide irregularly, bouncing in the low-altitude upper atmosphere. Thus, it is impossible for the US missile defense systems to intercept them.
Especially, China conducted an experimental launch of hypersonic glide vehicle in August in which the hypersonic glide vehicle went around the earth and hit a target. The experiment proved that China could attack whatever point on the earth with hypersonic glide vehicles. [3]
In contrast, the U.S. repeatedly failed in experiments of hypersonic cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles. At last, last month, the U.S. succeeded in an experiment of an aerial-launched hypersonic cruise missile first time. However, the U.S. failed again in the succeeding experiment. It would be long until the U.S. would be able to deploy hypersonic weapons. [4][5]
Meanwhile, as for missile defense systems, Russia has S500 surface to air missile systems which can intercept US ballistic missiles. China has imported S400 surface to air missile systems from Russia. Therefore, China can intercept US ballistic missiles too.
On the other hand, although the U.S. has missile defense systems against conventional ballistic missiles, they don't have defense systems against hypersonic glide vehicles. Therefore, if Russia or China attack the U.S. with their hypersonic glide vehicles, they can annihilate US cities.
3. Japan should declare neutrality and become a buffer state between China and the U.S.
Most Japanese people believe that Japan is protected by the US nuclear umbrella. However, the U.S. is already unable to protect even themselves against Russian and Chinese hypersonic gliding vehicles (which incidentally can be armed with nuclear warheads).
The U.S. has no power to defend Japan. If a military conflict happens in Asia between China/Russia and the U.S., US aegis warships and aircraft carriers will be easy preys of Russian Tsirkon or Chinese DF-100. Also, as mentioned above, the US nuclear umbrella doesn't work. Therefore, the US-Japan Security Treaty is meaningless. It has only meaning that it will make Japan a battle field in case of US-China military conflicts.
Xi Jinping, the President of China, pledged and is calling for the Chinese people that China should have even more powerful military forces. Russia also continues to develop more stronger military forces. Meanwhile, the US pace of weapon development is slowing down due to shortage of engineers. The gap between Russian/Chinese offensive and defensive power and the US offensive and defensive power will only continue to widen.
Under these circumstances, Japan should cease to be a US satellite state. Rather, Japan should declare neutrality and become a buffer state between China and the U.S. That's the only way Japan can achieve independence without heavily arming herself.
If Japan declares neutrality and becomes a buffer state between China and the U.S., the US military power in the Pacific will retreat to Hawaiian Islands, which will produce sufficient space between China and the U.S. to maintain peace.
Of course, Japan can and should maintain good economic relations with the U.S. even after Japan declares neutrality and become a buffer state between China and the U.S.
Incidentally, Japanese conservatives would insist that Japan needs to have nuclear weapons to protect herself in case Japan declares neutrality.
Japan should not have nuclear weapons. If Japan starts moving toward nuclear arming, China will give warnings to Japan frequently, and, if Japan still would not stop moving toward nuclear arming, China would launch attack against Japan including preemptive nuclear attack because China knows that Japan will surely use nuclear weapons against China.
Instead of nuclear arming, Japan should rather work on international community so that the region including Japan and Korean Peninsula would become a nuclear weapon-free zone.
Japan should declare neutrality and become a buffer state between China and the U.S. That's the only way Japan can achieve independence without heavily arming herself.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
