NORTH KOREA CAN BECOME AN OBSEVER STATE OF SCO

North Korea can become an observer state of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) just like Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia.

By becoming an observer state of SCO, or even just being in the process of becoming an observer state of SCO, North Korea can feel it has better security and protection, which will incentivize DPRK to consider denuclearization.





Currently, North Korea is isolated and under constant threat of the US through US regular military exercises with South Korea. Under such a circumstance, North Korea has no choice but to stick to its nuclear weapons and the development of more advanced ICBMs.

Just like North Korea, Iran has been under US military threat and US heavy economic sanctions. However, Iran was accepted to SCO as an observer state back in 2005 and applied for a formal membership of SCO last year.

North Korea has been in good relations with SCO member states and observer states such as China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Iran and Belarus. By becoming an observer state of such a large prestigious organization as SCO, North Korea would feel solidarity and reassurance, which will incentivize DPRK to consider denuclearization.


At the same time, Russia can start supporting DPRK economically, providing oil and gas and other necessities. Russia has nothing to fear as Russia is already under the West's maximum economic sanctions. Russia's support to DPRK could trigger resumption of the 6 party talk.



Also, Russia can supply, lend or deploy its S-400 or S-500 air defense systems to North Korea, which will make it impossible for the US aircraft including F-35s to come close to North Korea. Once again, Russia has nothing to fear anymore.


The US can not overwhelm North Korea militarily. Even if the US military conducts the severest attack against North Korea including nuclear attack, North Korea's nuclear ICBMs hidden deep in tunnels in mountainous areas will be able to survive and be used to retaliate against the US. [1][2]

According to a US Congressional report, North Korea can launch an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack against the US by detonating a nuclear bomb at high altitude over the US. An EMP attack would destroy the US electric grid. Then, US food production, storage and distribution systems would break down. In one year, up to 90% of the population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse. [3]






[HNEMP (High Altitude Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse)]

In November, North Korea said it conducted an important ballistic missile test fire to verify the reliability of Special Functional Combat Department operations, paralyzing the enemy’s operational command system. South Korea experts suggest that North Korea must have tested with an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) warhead. [4]

Also, there is no way for the US military to defend itself against North Korea's missile attack with chemical and biological warheads. The US military forces in South Korea will be neutralized and US reinforcement forces from the US mainland would never be able to even disembark at disastrous South Korean harbors filled with panic-stricken refugees. [5]



The US should admit its military incapacity and make a peace treaty with North Korea. The only reason why the US wants to maintain confrontation with North Korea is that the tension allows the US to justify its military budget domestically and feeding money to the US military industrial complex. In the latest military exercise, the US mobilized even such obsolete B-1B bomber aircraft which is of no use in a real combat.

After the peace treaty, denuclearization of North Korea by applying a scheme of gradual step-by-step denuclearization in exchange for the relaxation of sanctions can be started.

US military forces stationed in South Korea will withdraw.



Denuclearization of North Korea will create the momentum for the world denuclearization.


China can rally world nations to support and call for the peace treaty between North Korea and the US.





Once the peace treaty is concluded, the process of reunification of North and South Korea can start immediately. The unified Korea will be directly connected to China's Belt and Road Initiative and prosper economically.

The reunification of North and South Korea will have an effect to create atmosphere and momentum for the reunification of China and Taiwan as well.

Thank you.


Reference:
(1) "Ground Invasion Only Way to Destroy North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal, Pentagon Says", NBC News, November 5th 2017

(2) "The U.S. could lose in a war against North Korea, a former Pentagon commander warns", Newsweek, November 9th 2017

(3) "North Korean EMP Attack Would Cause Mass U.S. Starvation, Says Congressional Report", October 23rd 2017, Forbes

(4) "N. Korea claims firing of cruise missile near the sea of Ulsan", November 8th 2022, Dong-A Ilbo

(5) "The U.S. could lose in a war against North Korea, a former Pentagon commander warns", Newsweek, November 9th 2017


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

NATO VS SCO

The war between Ukraine and Russia has turned into a war between NATO and Russia as NATO countries especially the US keeps providing massive weapon supply to Ukraine.



However, the US weapon supply to Ukraine may shrink after the US midterm election because Trumpian Republicans are expected to win both the House and the Senate and block major flow of weapon supply to Ukraine.

Also, US arsenal inventory is out of stock. The US doesn't have Javelin or HIMARS to send to Ukraine anymore. The latest US military support for Ukraine is refurbishing its Soviet-era tanks. [1]

On the other hand, with added mobilized soldiers, Russian Army's winter offensive can be swift and decisive. Russia having secured Russian-speaking regions, the rest of Ukraine is an absolute enemy of Russia. Thus, Russia doesn't care civilian casualties anymore.



Since the US and UK have a total control over the Kiev puppet government and would not allow Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia, Russia needs to overwhelm Ukraine Army, advance to Kiev and make Zelensky exiled. Then, Russia can conclude a peace deal with its set-up pro-Russian government, ending the war.

According to news reports, Iran has supplied attack drones, and DPRK is supplying munitions to Russia. In order to conquer Kiev, Russia may need more weapons. [2][3]



Under such circumstances, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states of Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) may provide weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.



Furthermore, China can make a so-called lend-lease arrangement with Central Asian countries under which China lends huge amount of weapons, munitions and equipment to Central Asian countries in the name of counter-terrorism because there was a coup attempt in Kazakhstan in January. Then, Central Asian countries can supply superfluous Russian-made weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia that they already had.



Making such an arrangement, China can maintain neutrality with regard to the Ukraine War, avoiding being a target of the West's economic sanctions while indirectly supplying weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.

It is likely that, even if Russia accomplishes seizing Kiev militarily and setting up a pro-Russian government, the majority of Ukraine people would still have anti-Russian sentiment. So, the pro-Russian Ukraine government would immediately need to ask China and India to help the reconstruction of Ukraine. BRICS plus too may assist the reconstruction.



Following the disarmament of Ukraine Army, Russian Army would need to stay in Ukraine until the situation becomes calm. Belarus and Central Asian SCO member states may provide security forces to maintain the peace and order of Ukraine.


After Russia overwhelms Ukraine Army, seizes Kiev, and sets up a pro-Russian government to end the war, SCO may expand westward to deter NATO's eastward expansion. SCO can expand westward to include Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria, which will counter and block NATO's eastward expansion.

Thereafter, Russia can use and extend the existing TurkStream pipeline to supply oil and gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary via Turkey. Also, China can extend Belt and Road Initiative to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary to construct infrastructures including 5G networks and boost trade with these countries.





Having access to cheap Russian oil and gas and China's growing consumer market and most advanced 5G technologies, Southeastern European countries will rapidly grow economically and become much more competitive and prosperous than Western Europe which has to import very expensive liquified gas from the Middle East. Western Europe will become stagnated and decline forever unless it accepts the multipolar world is the reality.

Thank you.


Reference:
(1) "Pentagon will pay to upgrade dozens of Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine", November 4th 2022, Politico

(2) "Iran acknowledges drone shipments to Russia before Ukraine war", November 5th 2022, Reuters

(3) "White House says North Korea supplying Russia with artillery shells", November 3rd 2022, Reuters


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

UNLIKE EUROPE, WISDOM OF ASIA CAN PREVENT A WAR

So far, there have been made many Taiwan crisis simulations. However, they have been made only from military view points regarding which side would win, China or the US.

Instead, simulations should be made on how enormous civilian casualties could be if Taiwan crisis should happen and how devastating economic damages would be for countries in the regions and the world, so that the world people would realize that a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is "the" only option.

Also, in order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia on China's rise and economic power, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.


1. China is striving for peaceful unification with Taiwan while the US is trying to provoke China into a war

At the opening ceremony of China's 20th National Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping said with regard to Taiwan, "We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort."



Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is what China is striving to achieve for decades. For that purpose, China is encouraging economic and business cooperation between China and Taiwan. China is supporting human communication and cultural exchange between China and Taiwan.

However, the US is trying to prevent reunification of China and Taiwan. Members of the US Congress including House Chairperson Nancy Pelosi have been visiting Taiwan. Former high ranking officials including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited Taiwan, who said, "One China policy has outlived its usefulness." The US is treating Taiwan more and more as if Taiwan were an independent country.



Taiwan is a part of China. Thus, US intervention in Taiwan is interference in China's internal affair and therefore illegal.


The reason why the US is interfering Taiwan affair is that, by making Taiwan declare independence, the US wants to provoke China into a prolonged quagmire of military conflict so as to destabilize China's regime and ultimately topple the Communist government.

China's economic expansion has been more rapid than anyone's expectation. Now, with huge R & D investment and superior technological advantage, China will dominate 6G/5G race against the US, EU and Japan, which means that China will dominate AI applied services, self-driving cars, IoT and Big Data. It means that China will dominate financial businesses, manufacturing businesses and service businesses in the near future.





The US has finally noticed that, if the US keeps allowing China's rise, it would be overwhelmed by China before long and would never be able to recover its dominance forever.

Therefore, it is quite likely that the US would let Taiwan declare independence so as to provoke China into a forceful reunification of Taiwan and a military conflict.

In that event, Japan would be used as a proxy to fight against China while the US would stay back and only provide military intelligence and military directions to Japan. The US would incite EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on to impose the severest economic sanctions against China.

Actually, that is exactly what the US is currently doing in Ukraine war. The US provoked Russia by Ukraine's possibility of joining NATO and get Russia into a military conflict with Ukraine. The US stays back and provide only weapons and military intelligence to Ukraine. The US, together with EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on, has imposed sanctions against Russia. Ukraine is to Russia what Japan would be to China.


2. Simulations on civilian casualties and economic damages in case of Taiwan crisis

European people did not predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Ukraine war. Now, it is estimated that escalating Ukraine war already caused more than fifteen thousands of Ukraine civilian casualties. Meanwhile, European people are suffering from terrible inflation. Germany even stopped import of Russian gas without finding alternative gas suppliers. As a result, German people are suffering from sky-rocketing gas prices and the freezing cold winter. Halting export of Ukraine grain resulted in food crisis in developing countries.

In contrast, unlike Europe, Asia can have wisdom and courage to dare to predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Taiwan crisis.

Conscientious and peace-loving professors and researchers of universities and think-tanks in China, Japan, US, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN can work together to publish a research paper on enormous civilian casualties and devastating economic damages to be inflicted if Taiwan military crisis happens so that peaceful China-Taiwan reunification is facilitated.

In preparing the research paper, AI and Big Data can be applied to calculate detailed and precise numbers of predicted civilian casualties and economic damages to be inflicted.




Currently, the Japanese people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Japan which are to be inflicted if Taiwan crisis happens.

The Japanese people mistakenly expect that, even if Taiwan crisis happens, the battle field would be limited to only Ryukyu Islands and not be expanded to the mainland Japan. They are wrong. In case of China-US military conflict, China will launch ballistic missiles toward not only US bases in Okinawa but US bases in the mainland Japan as well because US warplanes and warships are to be dispatched from US bases in the mainland Japan to join the battle.





Japan's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Japan's economic damages will be devastating.

Likewise, the Philippines people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Philippines in case of China-US military conflict. If the US uses US bases in Philippines, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in Philippines. Philippines' collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Philippines' economic damages will be devastating.

Also, if US warplanes deployed in South Korea join the battle, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in South Korea too. South Korea's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. South Korea's economic damages will be devastating.

And, if China-US military conflict escalates to a tactical nuclear war, civilian casualties and economic damages in the region could rise exponentially and become more than ten to one hundred times larger.



Furthermore, economic damages will not be limited to the region. As Chinese economy is integrated to the world, devastating economic damages will be inflicted in all the nations across the world.

These contingencies must be avoided by all means.


Once the research paper is completed, members of the Japanese Parliament will be able to use the research paper to ask specific questions to the Japanese government, thereby widely spreading information among the Japanese people on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.



Currently, deliberations on Taiwan crisis at the Japanese Parliament are only vague ambiguous ones. The concrete numbers of enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will change the debate.

At the same time, a lot of symposium can be held, using the research paper, on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.

University students and high school students can organize reading groups to use the research paper to learn potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.





Overseas Chinese in Japan can use the research paper to discuss with their Japanese business counterparts on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.

Eventually, after these nation-wide efforts, the majority of the Japanese people will come to oppose Japan's joining a military intervention to Taiwan crisis. Instead, the Japanese people will support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because that's the only way to avoid their civilian casualties and economic damages.


Likewise, the research paper can be used in South Korea, Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Asian and African countries, Pacific island countries, South American countries, European countries and even Taiwan and the US.

CGTN and Xinhua can report and broadcast to the world audience about potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages. CGTN and Xinhua can overwhelm US and EU's war propaganda, based upon accurate prediction of civilian casualties and economic damages detailed in the research paper.




The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will strengthen and multiply voices calling for avoiding Taiwan crisis in nations across the world.

The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will mobilize the world people to support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.


3. China can coordinate co-prosperity with the US, EU and Japan

The US and EU's radical reactions against China stem from their fear toward China. They are appalled by China's rapid economic and technological rise and horrified with a nightmare that they would be surpassed, overwhelmed and left behind in despair and poverty.

In order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.

China can start with setting up China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table and inviting Japan to join. In the past, during the rapid Japan's economic growth after World War 2, the Japanese government implemented industrial policies under which coordinated competition and guaranteed prosperity of Japanese companies in each industrial sector were realized. Compared to US and EU companies, Japanese companies are accustomed to industrial policies. Through China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can set up an example for the US and EU as to how to coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win economic growth between China and Western countries. [1]



At China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can lecture to Japanese government officials, business leaders and economic experts on China's 5 year plan and how China is planning to develop her industries, cooperating with Asian and African countries, in the coming 5 years. Through discussions and exchange of information, China's industrial sectors and Japanese industrial sectors will find how to coordinate and supplement each other between China and Japan, which will then be summarized into a coordination guideline that will enable each Chinese and Japanese company to calculate and formulate a detailed business plan.

During the discussions, China can provide a concrete realistic picture of potential fruits of coordination, showing predicted numbers on sales and profits meticulously calculated with applying AI and Big Data, which Japan, the US and EU cannot do. China can provide predicted numbers of employment to be created too.

The guideline doesn't include any obligation to China and Japan. Instead, it only provides a loose vision on the possibility and potential as to how China and Japan can coordinate and grow together harmoniously. The guideline functions to encourage coordination and cooperation between China and Japan.



After demonstrating that China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table works well, China can set up China-US Industrial Coordination Round Table and China-EU Industrial Coordination Round Table.

Given the guidelines, US and EU will not have to fear China's economic juggernaut anymore. After all, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," as indicated by FDR.

Belt and Road Initiative is not imperialism. China is not trying to make Asian and African countries into her exclusive colonies. Asian and African countries are open for investment of US, EU and other western countries.

Human beings do not have to fear anymore. The world can coordinate and cooperate to flourish and prosper toward the shared future of the mankind.

Thank you.


Reference:
(1) " "China and japan can be an engine for Asian development," said a president of the China-Japan Friendship association", October 20th 2022, the Sankei News


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.