【Note】I am writing this article because I want to save millions of lives that could perish if WW3 should break out.
【Summary】
Obviously, the US & Israel are trying to provoke and draw Iran into a war. If that happens, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
China, together with BRICS & SCO, should strongly blame the US & Israel and demand them to stop the provocation.
1. The US is planning WW3 instead of a Taiwan War
China might be regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [1]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [2]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
2. The US & Israel's provocative actions against Iran
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide.
Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood on December 25th 2023. Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [3]
A drone strike killed Hamas senior leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon on January 2nd 2024.
On January 3rd, two explosions killed103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [4]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
Now, Iran is letting the Houthi in Yemen carry out missile attacks over the Red Sea to make the Red Sea impassable so that Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea. Also, Iran is planning to make the Gibraltar impassable too so that Israel would not be able to import goods by shipping through the Mediterranean. Iran sent a warship, which already entered the Red Sea. It may pass through the Suez Canal and sail westward toward the Gibraltar. [5][6]
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
[Iran's frigate Alborz entered the Red Sea, passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait]
UK, which claims the Gibraltar is its territory, will attack the Iran's warship if it approaches the Gibraltar. The US will escalate the conflict by attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East, exchanging missiles each other.
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [7]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
Just like the US used Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in WW2 to disrupt and destroy European colonial empires, the US is now trying to use Israel and Japan in the coming WW3 to disrupt and destroy China's global trade network and thereby topple the Chinese Communist government. (It is now an open secret that the US provided financial support to the Nazis through various US banking firms during 1930s and 40s. [8])
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was no different from Adolf Hitler and likened Israel's genocide in Gaza to the genocide against Jewish people by the Nazis. [9]
His observation is accurate but superficial. There is a deeper and more fundamental plan of the US.
[US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]
The US let Nazi Germany commit genocide against Jewish people in Europe so that UK and France would be provoked and declare a war against Germany. Now, the US lets Israel commit genocide against Palestine people in Gaza so that Iran would be provoked and retaliate against Israel. The ultimate objective of the US is to destabilize and topple the Chinese Communist government.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
Also, the fundamental US strategy doesn't change whoever becomes the Taiwan President whether a DPP candidate or a KMT candidate. In case, a DPP candidate should win the Taiwan presidential election, he might declare Taiwan's virtual independence to provoke China into a conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis.
Incidentally, if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down and oil export from the Middle East stops, Japan, whose more than 90% of oil import comes from the Middle East, will suffer a terrible economic disaster. Also, EU, which has stopped oil & gas import from Russia and switched to import from the Middle East, will suffer heavy economic downturn.
Japan and EU are supposed to be the US's allies. However, the US doesn't care wellbeing of its allies. Meanwhile, despite stoppage of oil export from the Middle East, the US will not suffer anything because it is currently the world's largest oil producer thanks to domestic shale oil production.
The US will sell its domestically produced oil to Japan and EU at extremely expensive prices, saying that it wants to "help" its allies. US oil companies will enjoy billions of dollars windfall of big profits.
3. China's counter-actions together with BRICS, SCO and Arab-Islamic countries against the US and Israel
Under these circumstances, China, together with BRICS & SCO, should strongly blame the US & Israel and demand them to stop the provocation against Iran.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE are members of BRICS as of January 1st 2024.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, August 2023]
China should persuade Iran not to be provoked by brutal and inhuman actions of Israel and the US. China should persuade Iran to refrain from attempting to blockade Israel.
Instead of military escalation, China should persuade Arab-Islamic countries to impose utmost economic sanctions against Israel.
[Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and foreign ministers of Arab-Islamic countries in Beijing in November 2023][10][11]
Also, China should persuade Arab-Islamic countries to reduce and boycott importing US weapons, which will be the most effective measure to discourage the US from letting Israel commit genocide in Gaza.
De-escalation is what China must seek for. Peace and prosperity is the most effective weapon for China to prevail against the warmonger US whose military industrial complex can not survive without regular periodical wars.
Thank you.
References:
(1) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(2) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(3) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(4) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(5) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(6) "Iranian warship Alborz enters the Red Sea - Tasnim", January 1st 2024, Reuters
(7) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(8) "How Bush's grandfather helped Hitler's rise to power", September 25th 2004, Reuters
(9) "Turkey's Erdogan says Israeli PM Netanyahu no different from Hitler", December 27th 2023, Reuters
(10) "Wang Yi Holds Talks with the Delegation of Arab-Islamic Foreign Ministers", November 20th 2023, Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Republic of North Macedonia
(11) "Chinese FM hosts Arab and Islamic counterparts in Beijing", November 20th 2023, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
【Summary】
Obviously, the US & Israel are trying to provoke and draw Iran into a war. If that happens, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
China, together with BRICS & SCO, should strongly blame the US & Israel and demand them to stop the provocation.
1. The US is planning WW3 instead of a Taiwan War
China might be regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [1]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [2]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
2. The US & Israel's provocative actions against Iran
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide.
Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood on December 25th 2023. Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [3]
A drone strike killed Hamas senior leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon on January 2nd 2024.
On January 3rd, two explosions killed103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [4]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
Now, Iran is letting the Houthi in Yemen carry out missile attacks over the Red Sea to make the Red Sea impassable so that Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea. Also, Iran is planning to make the Gibraltar impassable too so that Israel would not be able to import goods by shipping through the Mediterranean. Iran sent a warship, which already entered the Red Sea. It may pass through the Suez Canal and sail westward toward the Gibraltar. [5][6]
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
[Iran's frigate Alborz entered the Red Sea, passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait]
UK, which claims the Gibraltar is its territory, will attack the Iran's warship if it approaches the Gibraltar. The US will escalate the conflict by attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East, exchanging missiles each other.
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [7]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
Just like the US used Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in WW2 to disrupt and destroy European colonial empires, the US is now trying to use Israel and Japan in the coming WW3 to disrupt and destroy China's global trade network and thereby topple the Chinese Communist government. (It is now an open secret that the US provided financial support to the Nazis through various US banking firms during 1930s and 40s. [8])
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was no different from Adolf Hitler and likened Israel's genocide in Gaza to the genocide against Jewish people by the Nazis. [9]
His observation is accurate but superficial. There is a deeper and more fundamental plan of the US.
[US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]
The US let Nazi Germany commit genocide against Jewish people in Europe so that UK and France would be provoked and declare a war against Germany. Now, the US lets Israel commit genocide against Palestine people in Gaza so that Iran would be provoked and retaliate against Israel. The ultimate objective of the US is to destabilize and topple the Chinese Communist government.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
Also, the fundamental US strategy doesn't change whoever becomes the Taiwan President whether a DPP candidate or a KMT candidate. In case, a DPP candidate should win the Taiwan presidential election, he might declare Taiwan's virtual independence to provoke China into a conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis.
Incidentally, if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down and oil export from the Middle East stops, Japan, whose more than 90% of oil import comes from the Middle East, will suffer a terrible economic disaster. Also, EU, which has stopped oil & gas import from Russia and switched to import from the Middle East, will suffer heavy economic downturn.
Japan and EU are supposed to be the US's allies. However, the US doesn't care wellbeing of its allies. Meanwhile, despite stoppage of oil export from the Middle East, the US will not suffer anything because it is currently the world's largest oil producer thanks to domestic shale oil production.
The US will sell its domestically produced oil to Japan and EU at extremely expensive prices, saying that it wants to "help" its allies. US oil companies will enjoy billions of dollars windfall of big profits.
3. China's counter-actions together with BRICS, SCO and Arab-Islamic countries against the US and Israel
Under these circumstances, China, together with BRICS & SCO, should strongly blame the US & Israel and demand them to stop the provocation against Iran.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE are members of BRICS as of January 1st 2024.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, August 2023]
China should persuade Iran not to be provoked by brutal and inhuman actions of Israel and the US. China should persuade Iran to refrain from attempting to blockade Israel.
Instead of military escalation, China should persuade Arab-Islamic countries to impose utmost economic sanctions against Israel.
[Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and foreign ministers of Arab-Islamic countries in Beijing in November 2023][10][11]
Also, China should persuade Arab-Islamic countries to reduce and boycott importing US weapons, which will be the most effective measure to discourage the US from letting Israel commit genocide in Gaza.
De-escalation is what China must seek for. Peace and prosperity is the most effective weapon for China to prevail against the warmonger US whose military industrial complex can not survive without regular periodical wars.
Thank you.
References:
(1) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(2) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(3) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(4) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(5) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(6) "Iranian warship Alborz enters the Red Sea - Tasnim", January 1st 2024, Reuters
(7) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(8) "How Bush's grandfather helped Hitler's rise to power", September 25th 2004, Reuters
(9) "Turkey's Erdogan says Israeli PM Netanyahu no different from Hitler", December 27th 2023, Reuters
(10) "Wang Yi Holds Talks with the Delegation of Arab-Islamic Foreign Ministers", November 20th 2023, Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Republic of North Macedonia
(11) "Chinese FM hosts Arab and Islamic counterparts in Beijing", November 20th 2023, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.