1. The Biden administration's desperate attempt to attack Nikai faction
Presumably, the Biden administration has launched attacks against Abe faction and Nikai faction of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), using special investigative squad of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office that investigates these factions with alleging they made illegal fundraising by underreporting their income. [1]
[Prosecutors entering the office of Nikai faction to investigate an alleged illegal fundraising case]
President Biden wants to attack Abe faction, fearing Abe faction would support Trump's reelection as late PM Shinzo Abe was so close to former US President Donald Trump. It's personal.
On the other hand, the US government wants to attack Nikai faction, fearing Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and former Secretary General of LDP, who is the most prominent pro-China Japanese politician, might visit China soon to enhance and strengthen relations between Japan and China. It's geopolitical.
However, according to news reports, the investigation on these factions by special investigative squad of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office might end up literally as "Much ado about nothing" because objective concrete evidences are hard to collect. It is likely that the investigation will result in indictments on only misdemeanors of a few accountants of these factions. [2]
Meanwhile, the year 2024 is expected to be the most disastrous year for President Biden since Russia will launch a long-awaited major offensive against Ukraine. Ukraine has already exhausted its military resources due to its unsuccessful counter-offensive. Ukraine doesn't have power to resist Russia's coming colossal offensive anymore.
[Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has precisely scheduled Russian offensive to the US presidential election year. Everyday, news will arrive from Ukraine, telling miserable defeat after defeat of Ukraine forces, which will slowly and steadily kill Biden's political life.
Being desperate, President Biden may try to secure his survival by inciting and manipulating a Taiwan crisis, thereby diverting American people's attention from Ukraine to Taiwan.
For example, if a DPP candidate wins the Taiwan presidential election of mid-January 2024, Biden can let the Taiwan President to declare a virtual independence of Taiwan, which will invoke military intervention by China's PLA and lead to a Taiwan crisis or even a Taiwan war.
2. Mr. Nikai's surprise or secret visit to China during the holiday season
In order to preemptively prevent and neutralize the US's attempt to incite and manipulate a Taiwan crisis, Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, can make a surprise visit to China together with a few executive members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and confirm the position of pro-China members of the Japanese Parliament (MPs).
[Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
During the holiday season of December 25 (Christmas Day) to January 5, US government officials and business people don't work. Also, US Ambassador to Japan Emanuel Rahm, who is a Jew and whose father was a member of a Jewish paramilitary organization in Palestine, must be busy and preoccupied with checking the latest situation of Israel's invasion toward Gaza, exchanging mails with officials of US embassy in Israel.
Therefore, this is the good opportunity and suitable window for Mr. Nikai to make a surprise visit to China. US government officials and business people would not be able to take effective interfering actions to block Mr. Nikai's visit.
Or, Mr. Nikai can secretly visit China just like Dr. Henry Kissinger visited China secretly in 1971, which lead to the historic normalization of US-China relations.
Whether by a surprise visit or a secret visit, during his staying in China, Mr. Nikai can talk with Wang Yi, Director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and China's Foreign Minister.
Mr. Nikai is the most prominent pro-China Japanese politician and a long trusted friend of Mr. Wang Yi.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister]
After Mr. Nikai returned to Japan, Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai make public their joint memorandum which confirms an understanding reached between the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Or, instead, Mr. Nikai and Mr. Wang Yi can talk online, using TV conference, to come up with their joint memorandum of understanding.
The joint memorandum of understanding by Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai can include the following text, which can be published in the Chinese, the Japanese and the English languages:
//quote//
1. The logical consequence of the One-China Principle - Non-interference in the Taiwan Issue
The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association hereby confirm that Japan adheres to the One-China Principle, which means that the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of China.
Therefore, if a foreign country interferes the Taiwan issue, it will constitute an interference in China's internal affair.
Moreover, if a foreign country militarily intervenes the Taiwan issue, it will constitute an aggression.
Thus, Japan will not interfere the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to interfere the Taiwan issue.
Japan will not militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue.
The above mentioned Japan's resolve and policies are based upon the spirit of the Japanese Constitution, especially its article 9 and Japan's deepest repentance over its criminal past of aggression against China in the 1st and 2nd Sino-Japanese Wars and World War 2.
China accepts Japan's repentance and appreciates Japan's resolve. China and Japan will cooperate politically, diplomatically and economically to establish peaceful and prosperous win-win relations between two countries for the current and future generations, upholding the People-First Principle.
2. China-Japan cooperation in supporting the Global South
The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association hereby confirms that China welcomes Japan's joining China's efforts in supporting and developing the Global South.
China and Japan can coordinate supporting and developing the Global South, which will enhance the economic growth of the Global South, thereby contributing to the world economy.
Japan can join China's Belt and Road Initiative to facilitate coordination between two countries in all spectrum ranging from politics, diplomacy and economy.
//unquote//
Among the above text, the part "Japan will not militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue." is most important because it means that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Publication of the memorandum of understanding between the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association declaring that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters very much who are going to cast ballots in Taiwan presidential election scheduled on January 13th 2024.
The memorandum suggests that there is a strong group in Japan's Parliament who would oppose US military forces' using US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Floating of the possibility that US might not be able to support Taiwan in case of a Taiwan crisis would negatively affect against a DPP presidential candidate because he depends upon the US's political and military backing. It will crack the credibility and trustworthiness of the DPP candidate.
[Taiwan presidential candidates: DPP's Lai Ching-te (left); KMT's Hou Yu-ih (center); TPP's Ko Wen-je (right)]
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, the possibility of a pro-China KMT candidate's triumph and an anti-China DPP candidate's defeat will increase.
3. Komeito-party's severing relations with LDP and Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga's establishing a pro-China party
Even if DPP's candidate should win the presidential election in January 2024, a pro-China Japanese coalition government, which can be established through a reshuffle of Japanese political parties, would prevent a Taiwan war, not allowing US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Komeito-party will play a critical role in the coming reshuffle of Japanese political parties.
Komeito-party will sever relations with LDP and start supporting a pro-China new party to be established by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai and Mr. Yoshihide Suga, former Japanese PM.
This will be killing two birds with one stone because it will reduce anti-China MPs drastically and, at the same time, increase pro-China MPs dramatically.
Without Komeito-party's support, junior MPs of LDP will not be able to win elections. On the other hand, with Komeito-party's support, candidates of a pro-China new party to be established by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai and Mr. Yoshihide Suga will be able to win elections.
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Mr. Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC), met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP & Komeito-party should be resumed. [3]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Mr. Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Mr. Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai will provide it in his coming visit. [4]
After he returned from China, Mr. Yamaguchi met with Chinese ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao at the Chinese embassy in Japan in early December. Komeito-party is expected to closely cooperate and make arrangements step by step, working with the Chinese embassy.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi and Wu Jianghao, Chinese ambassador to Japan at the Chinese embassy in Japan, December 2023]
Meanwhile, Mr. Nikai, cooperating with Mr. Yoshihide Suga, former PM of Japan can form a new pro-China political party.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [5]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [6]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.
[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [7]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [8]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
The Japanese people are fed up with current existing political parties because most of them are pro-US, which means they would accept transforming Japan into a US proxy to attack China in such a case of a Taiwan crisis. The current existing political parties can not show the way for Japan to be economically prosperous either.
Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga can leave LDP and form a new pro-China political party to lead Japan toward peace and prosperity.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
In the next general election, without Komeito-party's support, LDP will have a disastrous defeat. On the other hand, the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party will have a glorious victory with Komeito-party's support.
In addition, pro-China MPs of other opposition parties such as CDP and SDP will join the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party.
Then, Komeito-party and the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party will have the majority of MPs and form a coalition government which is completely pro-China.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Unlike current PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in a Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan people and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Under a situation that US military forces' intervention is impossible, even anti-China DPP would have to accept reunification with China. Taiwan President, even if he is from DPP, would have to take steps to go forward with reunification with China.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Tokyo prosecutors search offices of key ruling party factions", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(2) 「元・地検特捜部の郷原弁護士が解説 『裏金を受領した議員の立件が容易になったとは言えない』【裏金問題】」"、２０２３日１２月２０日、FNNプライムオンライン
(3) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(4) "China calls for independent monitoring of treated Fukushima water", November 23rd 2023, Kyodo News
(5) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(6) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(7) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(8) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Presumably, the Biden administration has launched attacks against Abe faction and Nikai faction of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), using special investigative squad of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office that investigates these factions with alleging they made illegal fundraising by underreporting their income. [1]
[Prosecutors entering the office of Nikai faction to investigate an alleged illegal fundraising case]
President Biden wants to attack Abe faction, fearing Abe faction would support Trump's reelection as late PM Shinzo Abe was so close to former US President Donald Trump. It's personal.
On the other hand, the US government wants to attack Nikai faction, fearing Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and former Secretary General of LDP, who is the most prominent pro-China Japanese politician, might visit China soon to enhance and strengthen relations between Japan and China. It's geopolitical.
However, according to news reports, the investigation on these factions by special investigative squad of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office might end up literally as "Much ado about nothing" because objective concrete evidences are hard to collect. It is likely that the investigation will result in indictments on only misdemeanors of a few accountants of these factions. [2]
Meanwhile, the year 2024 is expected to be the most disastrous year for President Biden since Russia will launch a long-awaited major offensive against Ukraine. Ukraine has already exhausted its military resources due to its unsuccessful counter-offensive. Ukraine doesn't have power to resist Russia's coming colossal offensive anymore.
[Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has precisely scheduled Russian offensive to the US presidential election year. Everyday, news will arrive from Ukraine, telling miserable defeat after defeat of Ukraine forces, which will slowly and steadily kill Biden's political life.
Being desperate, President Biden may try to secure his survival by inciting and manipulating a Taiwan crisis, thereby diverting American people's attention from Ukraine to Taiwan.
For example, if a DPP candidate wins the Taiwan presidential election of mid-January 2024, Biden can let the Taiwan President to declare a virtual independence of Taiwan, which will invoke military intervention by China's PLA and lead to a Taiwan crisis or even a Taiwan war.
2. Mr. Nikai's surprise or secret visit to China during the holiday season
In order to preemptively prevent and neutralize the US's attempt to incite and manipulate a Taiwan crisis, Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, can make a surprise visit to China together with a few executive members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and confirm the position of pro-China members of the Japanese Parliament (MPs).
[Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
During the holiday season of December 25 (Christmas Day) to January 5, US government officials and business people don't work. Also, US Ambassador to Japan Emanuel Rahm, who is a Jew and whose father was a member of a Jewish paramilitary organization in Palestine, must be busy and preoccupied with checking the latest situation of Israel's invasion toward Gaza, exchanging mails with officials of US embassy in Israel.
Therefore, this is the good opportunity and suitable window for Mr. Nikai to make a surprise visit to China. US government officials and business people would not be able to take effective interfering actions to block Mr. Nikai's visit.
Or, Mr. Nikai can secretly visit China just like Dr. Henry Kissinger visited China secretly in 1971, which lead to the historic normalization of US-China relations.
Whether by a surprise visit or a secret visit, during his staying in China, Mr. Nikai can talk with Wang Yi, Director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and China's Foreign Minister.
Mr. Nikai is the most prominent pro-China Japanese politician and a long trusted friend of Mr. Wang Yi.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister]
After Mr. Nikai returned to Japan, Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai make public their joint memorandum which confirms an understanding reached between the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Or, instead, Mr. Nikai and Mr. Wang Yi can talk online, using TV conference, to come up with their joint memorandum of understanding.
The joint memorandum of understanding by Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai can include the following text, which can be published in the Chinese, the Japanese and the English languages:
//quote//
1. The logical consequence of the One-China Principle - Non-interference in the Taiwan Issue
The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association hereby confirm that Japan adheres to the One-China Principle, which means that the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of China.
Therefore, if a foreign country interferes the Taiwan issue, it will constitute an interference in China's internal affair.
Moreover, if a foreign country militarily intervenes the Taiwan issue, it will constitute an aggression.
Thus, Japan will not interfere the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to interfere the Taiwan issue.
Japan will not militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue.
The above mentioned Japan's resolve and policies are based upon the spirit of the Japanese Constitution, especially its article 9 and Japan's deepest repentance over its criminal past of aggression against China in the 1st and 2nd Sino-Japanese Wars and World War 2.
China accepts Japan's repentance and appreciates Japan's resolve. China and Japan will cooperate politically, diplomatically and economically to establish peaceful and prosperous win-win relations between two countries for the current and future generations, upholding the People-First Principle.
2. China-Japan cooperation in supporting the Global South
The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association hereby confirms that China welcomes Japan's joining China's efforts in supporting and developing the Global South.
China and Japan can coordinate supporting and developing the Global South, which will enhance the economic growth of the Global South, thereby contributing to the world economy.
Japan can join China's Belt and Road Initiative to facilitate coordination between two countries in all spectrum ranging from politics, diplomacy and economy.
//unquote//
Among the above text, the part "Japan will not militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue. Japan will not cooperate in a third country's attempt to militarily intervene in the Taiwan issue." is most important because it means that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Publication of the memorandum of understanding between the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office and the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association declaring that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters very much who are going to cast ballots in Taiwan presidential election scheduled on January 13th 2024.
The memorandum suggests that there is a strong group in Japan's Parliament who would oppose US military forces' using US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Floating of the possibility that US might not be able to support Taiwan in case of a Taiwan crisis would negatively affect against a DPP presidential candidate because he depends upon the US's political and military backing. It will crack the credibility and trustworthiness of the DPP candidate.
[Taiwan presidential candidates: DPP's Lai Ching-te (left); KMT's Hou Yu-ih (center); TPP's Ko Wen-je (right)]
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, the possibility of a pro-China KMT candidate's triumph and an anti-China DPP candidate's defeat will increase.
3. Komeito-party's severing relations with LDP and Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga's establishing a pro-China party
Even if DPP's candidate should win the presidential election in January 2024, a pro-China Japanese coalition government, which can be established through a reshuffle of Japanese political parties, would prevent a Taiwan war, not allowing US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis.
Komeito-party will play a critical role in the coming reshuffle of Japanese political parties.
Komeito-party will sever relations with LDP and start supporting a pro-China new party to be established by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai and Mr. Yoshihide Suga, former Japanese PM.
This will be killing two birds with one stone because it will reduce anti-China MPs drastically and, at the same time, increase pro-China MPs dramatically.
Without Komeito-party's support, junior MPs of LDP will not be able to win elections. On the other hand, with Komeito-party's support, candidates of a pro-China new party to be established by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai and Mr. Yoshihide Suga will be able to win elections.
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Mr. Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC), met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP & Komeito-party should be resumed. [3]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Mr. Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Mr. Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai will provide it in his coming visit. [4]
After he returned from China, Mr. Yamaguchi met with Chinese ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao at the Chinese embassy in Japan in early December. Komeito-party is expected to closely cooperate and make arrangements step by step, working with the Chinese embassy.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi and Wu Jianghao, Chinese ambassador to Japan at the Chinese embassy in Japan, December 2023]
Meanwhile, Mr. Nikai, cooperating with Mr. Yoshihide Suga, former PM of Japan can form a new pro-China political party.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [5]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [6]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [7]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [8]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
The Japanese people are fed up with current existing political parties because most of them are pro-US, which means they would accept transforming Japan into a US proxy to attack China in such a case of a Taiwan crisis. The current existing political parties can not show the way for Japan to be economically prosperous either.
Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga can leave LDP and form a new pro-China political party to lead Japan toward peace and prosperity.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
In the next general election, without Komeito-party's support, LDP will have a disastrous defeat. On the other hand, the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party will have a glorious victory with Komeito-party's support.
In addition, pro-China MPs of other opposition parties such as CDP and SDP will join the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party.
Then, Komeito-party and the pro-China Nikai-Suga's party will have the majority of MPs and form a coalition government which is completely pro-China.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Unlike current PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in a Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in a Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan people and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Under a situation that US military forces' intervention is impossible, even anti-China DPP would have to accept reunification with China. Taiwan President, even if he is from DPP, would have to take steps to go forward with reunification with China.
Thank you.
References:
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(2) 「元・地検特捜部の郷原弁護士が解説 『裏金を受領した議員の立件が容易になったとは言えない』【裏金問題】」"、２０２３日１２月２０日、FNNプライムオンライン
(3) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(4) "China calls for independent monitoring of treated Fukushima water", November 23rd 2023, Kyodo News
(5) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(6) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(7) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(8) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.