1. A surprise visit to China by Natsuo Yamaguchi and his meeting with Cai Qi and Wang Yi
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC) met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) & Komeito-party should be resumed. [1]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, the President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and the most powerful pro-China politician in Japan, will provide it in his coming visit. [2]
Natsuo Yamaguchi's visit to China is a prelude of a visit to China by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, MP of LDP and Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, who is the most powerful pro-China politician in Japan.
2. Mr. Nikai will gather the majority of LDP MPs
Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, are long trusted friends.
[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [3]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.
[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [4]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, MP of LDP. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [5]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that Mr. Nikai might make a surprise visit to China with some members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and Japanese business executives by the end of this year, during which he might negotiate on the issue of nuclear contaminated water of Fukushima nuclear power plant and China's import ban on Japanese seafoods.
If China slacken or even lift her import ban on Japanese seafoods during Mr. Nikai's visit and negotiation with China, his prestige would be enhanced very much.
Mr. Nikai, combined with cooperation with Mr. Suga, will bring about bright prospect of Japan's better economic relations with China and India, which will uplift Japanese businesses and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Then, it is possible that more and more LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would come to join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
The latest polls indicate that the Kishida cabinet's approval rate is as low as only 21% and its disapproval rate is as high as whopping 74%. [6]
The Kishida cabinet is over. The Japanese people are fed up with it because the Kishida administration is so obedient and subservient to the US.
[Japanese PM Fumio Kishida is doomed]
According to news reports, LDP’s relatively junior MPs are concerned that, if unpopular PM Kishida remains in the premiership, they would not be able to be re-elected in the next election. They want someone popular among the Japanese people to be a prime minister. [7]
Knowing the minds and sentiments of LDP MPs, Mr. Nikai would pick up a person popular among the Japanese people as a candidate for the next PM such as Mr. Taro Kono, current Minister of Digital Affairs.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Taro Kono, Minister of Digital Affairs]
After he gathers the majority of LDP MPs on his side, Mr. Nikai would start forcing PM Kishida to resign. As some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament are a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker.
He could pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people due to his frank and untraditional style.
Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Ms. Seiko Noda or Ms. Yuko Obuchi as the next PM.
Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who makes him/her a prime minister.
3. Establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
Unlike PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
4. The US's attempt to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan
Of course, the US will try to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan by all means because if the US loses Japan, the US's so-called Indo-Pacific strategy will be broken apart. In that case, the US will lose its hegemony not only in Asia but the entire world, which it will never recover ever again.
Then, how the US would try to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan? The US will mobilize every government organization to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan, including CIA, NSA, DIA, US military forces, State Department and so on. The US would adopt a multi-layer strategy.
(1) Replacing the PM with another puppet
First, the US would call for pro-US politicians of LDP such as Taro Aso, vice-President of LDP, to form another pro-US government. As a king maker, Mr. Aso will pick up another puppet who will be as obedient and subservient as PM Kishida.
Mr. Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary General of LDP, already visited the US in May 2023 for the purpose of selling him and appealing to US politicians that he is the best choice for the next Japanese PM. [8]
[Chuck Schumer, Democratic Senator of the US, and Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary General of LDP]
Ms. Yoko Kamikawa, Foreign Minister, was once a staff of US Democrat Senator Max Baucus. So, she knows how to serve the interest of the US very well. [9]
[Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, and Yoko Kamikawa, Foreign Minister of Japan]
Whichever becomes a PM, he or she would be as obedient and subservient as PM Kishida. The new PM will continue PM Kishida's policies and transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China.
(2) Replacing the LDP government with the CDP-DPP led coalition government
However, even if Taro Aso, as a king maker, succeeds in forming a pro-US government, such a cabinet would be short-lived because as long as LDP is a ruling party, Mr. Nikai's pro-China political power is enormous.
Therefore, as a more fundamental and durable measure, the US would try to oust Mr. Nikai out of power by staging a change of government in Japan.
The US is currently trying to disgrace LDP by exposing various scandals and criminal charges against LDP.
The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office's Special Investigation Department is investigating LDP factions' false reporting on their funds which is a violation of the political funds control law. [10]
[Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Department]
The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office’s Special Investigation Department is also investigating an LDP MP for his giving bribery to local assembly members. [11]
Another LDP MP resigned as parliamentary vice foreign minister for allegedly accepting bribes from a wind power company. [12]
More criminal charges against LDP are expected in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, MPs of CDP (Constitutional Democratic Party) are busy appearing on TV programs. For example, former PM Yoshihiko Noda, MP of CDP, emphasized in a TV program that the current Japanese political situation resembled that of 2009 when the change of government had happened. [13]
[Yoshihiko Noda, former PM and MP of CDP]
Meanwhile, the leader of DPP (Democratic Party for People) indicated a favorable message to the leader of CDP, saying, "I send cheers to Kenta Izumi, the leader of CDP." [14]
[Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of DPP]
Back in late 2000s, the exactly same manipulation was made by the US government. LDP was disgraced by its disastrous failure on pension scheme. DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) was hailed as a hopeful alternative. Then, the DPJ government was established in 2009. The US government is trying to repeat the same tactics.
「Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of DPp (left) and Kenta Izumi, the leader of CDP]
Soon, CDP would make an announcement that it would cooperate with DPP to make a change of the government. DPP would agree.
Then, other opposition parties would join one after another. Reiwa Shinsengumi, Ishin No Kai and even the newly-formed Japanese Conservative Party would join, sharing the same election pledges that advocates anti-LDP, pro-US and anti-China. After all, these parties are groups of unprincipled people.
However, the US underestimates the Japanese people’s distrust against CDP and DPP, members of which once belonged to the same party, i.e., DPJ.
Those who betrayed the Japanese people 10 years ago are still there. CDP and DPP haven’t changed at all. The Japanese people will never trust CDP and DPP.
[Nobuyuki Baba, the leader of Ishin No kai]
Also, Ishin No kai will collapse as the Osaka-Kansai Japan Expo, which Ishin No Kai has been vigorously promoting, will collapse due to its cost-overrun and cancellation of foreign countries' participation.
Reiwa Shinsengumi will collapse too as its hypocrisy and apostacy will become obvious.
[Addendum dated December 6th 2023]
Alternatively, a new pro-US and anti-China party might be formed by prefectural governors and city mayors such as Yuriko Koike, Governor of Tokyo, and Fusaho Izumi, former mayor of Akashi-city, claiming they have experiences on how to govern. [15][16]
[Koike Yuriko, Governor of Tokyo and former Defense Minister, who advocates Japan's nuclear arming]
[Fusaho Izumi, former mayor of Akashi-city, who resigned as a mayor for his abusive remarks]
But, the party will collapse before the next general election as the Japanese people will notice that the party's real purpose is to transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China. Hawkish Yuriko Koike advocates that Japan should be nuclear-armed.
(3) Assassinations, a coup and a war
If the US's attempt to stage a change of government in Japan fails, then, the US might resort to more radical and violent measures.
Back in 1930s when Japan was carrying out aggression against China, some Japanese politicians who advocated peace and disarmament were assaulted or assassinated.
[Assassination attempt on Prime Minister Hamaguchi Osachi inside Tokyo Station, 14 November 1930]
Just like assassination attempt on Prime Minister Hamaguchi Osachi of 1930, League of Blood Incident of 1932 and May 15 incident of 1932, there can be assassinations or assassination attempts on pro-China politicians.
However, if a pro-China politician is assassinated, everyone would instantly notice which country is behind it. Assassinations of pro-China politicians would evoke the Japanese people's indignation against the US and rather facilitate establishment of pro-China government in Japan.
Furthermore, a coup might be staged to remove a civilian government and suspend the Constitution.
Actually, in even Germany, which is supposed to be the most democratic and stable country in Europe, a coup attempt was made in December 2022. The coup was foiled by the German government. The plotters were arrested on December 7th. [17]
[February 26 incident (a coup attempt by the Imperial Japanese Army) of 1936: Rebel troops entered and seized the Parliament building]
Before a coup is carried out in Japan, Japanese stock prices would be manipulated to plunge, and many cruel crimes would be committed here and there so that distrust and despair would prevail in the society.
Then, officers of JSDF (Japan Self-Defense Forces) would declare that all existing political parties are dysfunctional and corrupted and that the military takes responsibility to maintain the order of society until a clean reliable government is established.
However, in a current advanced country, a coup is extremely difficult. Everyone has a smart phone. Therefore, unusual moves of military forces can be noticed and reported immediately. A coup attempt will be thwarted.
Or, the US might make Japan to stage a false flag operation during the short-lived Motegi or Kamikawa administration, in which Japanese warships clash with Chinese warships around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands).
But, in that event, Japanese warships would be instantly destroyed by Chinese PLAN's anti-ship missiles and PLA's hypersonic cruise missiles. Impressed by China's far superior military power, Japan would understand that it had better avoid confrontation against China and come to establish a pro-China government.
Or, the US might desperately launch a Taiwan war during the short-lived Motegi or Kamikawa administration because that is the last chance for the US to use its military bases in Japan to intervene in a Taiwan war.
But, if a Taiwan war should happen, the US would be defeated by China.
5. The possibility of Mr. Nikai's establishing a new pro-China party
Despite the US’s counter-actions, pro-China Japanese government will be established.
It is reported that, when Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga met on November 9th, Mr. Nikai said, "We will do it thoroughly". What does that mean? [18]
There is a possibility that Mr. Nikai, working with Mr. Suga, would establish a new party that is pro-China.
The Japanese people who are fed up with dysfunctional existing parties would welcome and enthusiastically support Mr. Nikai's new party because, unlike pro-US parties that will lead to a war and stagflation, Mr. Nikai's new pro-China party, if established, would provide hope for lasting peace and prosperity for Japan.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Based upon the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association which is a multi-partisan association, Mr. Nikai's pro-China party would be consisted of not only LDP's pro-China MPs but opposition parties' pro-China MPs as well, which could be more than one hundred or even one hundred and fifty MPs. Because of the Japanese people's support, Mr. Nikai's pro-China party would double its MPs after the next general election. It will become the largest party in Japan.
Triumphant Mr. Nikai's pro-China party, cooperating with pro-China Komeito-party would form a coalition government that is completely pro-China.
Whatever the coming development is, what is most important is the Japanese people's consistent support to a pro-China politicians. Then, the US's attempt to stage a change of government, assassinations, coup, and launching a Taiwan war would surely fail.
[Addendum dated December 7th 2023]
In 2021 when Mr. Nikai was Secretary General of LDP, he said he would very much welcome Yuriko Koike if she comes back to the stage of national politics, leaving the office of Governor of Tokyo. It might have crossed his mind that Ms. Koike could be one of excellent candidates for a Japanese PM. [19]
But, Mr. Nikai should avoid picking up Ms. Koike as a PM because she is too hawkish. Ms. Koike once said that Japan should be nuclear-armed, which means she presumes China and Russia as potential adversaries. If she becomes a PM, she would be out of control of Mr. Nikai and become a formidable enemy against China.
Thank you.
References :
(1) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(2) "China Seeks Opportunity to Monitor Fukushima Water Release", November 23rd 2023, nippon.com
(3) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(4) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(5) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
(6) 「岸田内閣支持率21％ 旧民主・菅政権以来の水準 毎日新聞世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１９日、毎日新聞
(7) 「底なしの支持率、与党に動揺＝「ポスト岸田」にらみ動きも―時事世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１６日、時事通信
(8) 「訪米の自民・茂木幹事長、「ポスト岸田」存在感アピールも足元に難題」、２０２３年５月２日、朝日新聞
(9) Profile of Yoko Kamikawa, The House of Representatives, Japan
(10) "Biggest faction of Japan's ruling party LDP allegedly pools secret funds", December 1st 2023, Kyodo News
(11) "LDP lawmaker’s office searched in election bribery investigation", November 17th 2023, The Asahi Shimbun
(12) "Bribery claims lead Japan parliamentary vice foreign minister to quit", August 4th 2023, Kyodo News
(13) 「政権交代起きた『2009年に似ている』 立憲・野田元首相が指摘」、２０２３年１１月２４日、FNN プライムオンライン
(14) 「国民・玉木代表『泉氏にエール送りたい』 対共産『よくわからない』」、１１月２８日、朝日新聞
(15) 「経済評論家 小池都知事の高校授業料無償化方針『明らかに国政選挙が近いということを意識した動き』」、２０２３年１２月６日、Sponichi Annex
(16) 「『立憲民主党が野党第一党ではムリ！だとしたら…』明石市で革命を起こした泉房穂がリアルに見つめる『政権交代へのロードマップ』」、２０２３年１２月４日、現代ビジネス
(17) "Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup", December 7th 2022, BBC
(18) 「岸田内閣の支持率低迷、うごめく非主流派…二階元幹事長『徹底的にやるぞ』」、２０２３年１１月１０日、産経新聞
(19) 「二階幹事長、小池知事が国政復帰なら『大いに歓迎』…知事選出馬も『見事なもの』と評価」、２０２１年７月８日、読売新聞
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC) met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) & Komeito-party should be resumed. [1]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, the President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and the most powerful pro-China politician in Japan, will provide it in his coming visit. [2]
Natsuo Yamaguchi's visit to China is a prelude of a visit to China by Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, MP of LDP and Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, who is the most powerful pro-China politician in Japan.
2. Mr. Nikai will gather the majority of LDP MPs
Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, are long trusted friends.
[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [3]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [4]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, MP of LDP. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [5]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that Mr. Nikai might make a surprise visit to China with some members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and Japanese business executives by the end of this year, during which he might negotiate on the issue of nuclear contaminated water of Fukushima nuclear power plant and China's import ban on Japanese seafoods.
If China slacken or even lift her import ban on Japanese seafoods during Mr. Nikai's visit and negotiation with China, his prestige would be enhanced very much.
Mr. Nikai, combined with cooperation with Mr. Suga, will bring about bright prospect of Japan's better economic relations with China and India, which will uplift Japanese businesses and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Then, it is possible that more and more LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would come to join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
The latest polls indicate that the Kishida cabinet's approval rate is as low as only 21% and its disapproval rate is as high as whopping 74%. [6]
The Kishida cabinet is over. The Japanese people are fed up with it because the Kishida administration is so obedient and subservient to the US.
[Japanese PM Fumio Kishida is doomed]
According to news reports, LDP’s relatively junior MPs are concerned that, if unpopular PM Kishida remains in the premiership, they would not be able to be re-elected in the next election. They want someone popular among the Japanese people to be a prime minister. [7]
Knowing the minds and sentiments of LDP MPs, Mr. Nikai would pick up a person popular among the Japanese people as a candidate for the next PM such as Mr. Taro Kono, current Minister of Digital Affairs.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Taro Kono, Minister of Digital Affairs]
After he gathers the majority of LDP MPs on his side, Mr. Nikai would start forcing PM Kishida to resign. As some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament are a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker.
He could pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people due to his frank and untraditional style.
Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Ms. Seiko Noda or Ms. Yuko Obuchi as the next PM.
Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who makes him/her a prime minister.
3. Establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
Unlike PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene in a Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
4. The US's attempt to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan
Of course, the US will try to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan by all means because if the US loses Japan, the US's so-called Indo-Pacific strategy will be broken apart. In that case, the US will lose its hegemony not only in Asia but the entire world, which it will never recover ever again.
Then, how the US would try to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan? The US will mobilize every government organization to prevent establishment of pro-China government in Japan, including CIA, NSA, DIA, US military forces, State Department and so on. The US would adopt a multi-layer strategy.
(1) Replacing the PM with another puppet
First, the US would call for pro-US politicians of LDP such as Taro Aso, vice-President of LDP, to form another pro-US government. As a king maker, Mr. Aso will pick up another puppet who will be as obedient and subservient as PM Kishida.
Mr. Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary General of LDP, already visited the US in May 2023 for the purpose of selling him and appealing to US politicians that he is the best choice for the next Japanese PM. [8]
[Chuck Schumer, Democratic Senator of the US, and Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary General of LDP]
Ms. Yoko Kamikawa, Foreign Minister, was once a staff of US Democrat Senator Max Baucus. So, she knows how to serve the interest of the US very well. [9]
[Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, and Yoko Kamikawa, Foreign Minister of Japan]
Whichever becomes a PM, he or she would be as obedient and subservient as PM Kishida. The new PM will continue PM Kishida's policies and transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China.
(2) Replacing the LDP government with the CDP-DPP led coalition government
However, even if Taro Aso, as a king maker, succeeds in forming a pro-US government, such a cabinet would be short-lived because as long as LDP is a ruling party, Mr. Nikai's pro-China political power is enormous.
Therefore, as a more fundamental and durable measure, the US would try to oust Mr. Nikai out of power by staging a change of government in Japan.
The US is currently trying to disgrace LDP by exposing various scandals and criminal charges against LDP.
The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office's Special Investigation Department is investigating LDP factions' false reporting on their funds which is a violation of the political funds control law. [10]
[Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Department]
The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office’s Special Investigation Department is also investigating an LDP MP for his giving bribery to local assembly members. [11]
Another LDP MP resigned as parliamentary vice foreign minister for allegedly accepting bribes from a wind power company. [12]
More criminal charges against LDP are expected in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, MPs of CDP (Constitutional Democratic Party) are busy appearing on TV programs. For example, former PM Yoshihiko Noda, MP of CDP, emphasized in a TV program that the current Japanese political situation resembled that of 2009 when the change of government had happened. [13]
[Yoshihiko Noda, former PM and MP of CDP]
Meanwhile, the leader of DPP (Democratic Party for People) indicated a favorable message to the leader of CDP, saying, "I send cheers to Kenta Izumi, the leader of CDP." [14]
[Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of DPP]
Back in late 2000s, the exactly same manipulation was made by the US government. LDP was disgraced by its disastrous failure on pension scheme. DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) was hailed as a hopeful alternative. Then, the DPJ government was established in 2009. The US government is trying to repeat the same tactics.
「Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of DPp (left) and Kenta Izumi, the leader of CDP]
Soon, CDP would make an announcement that it would cooperate with DPP to make a change of the government. DPP would agree.
Then, other opposition parties would join one after another. Reiwa Shinsengumi, Ishin No Kai and even the newly-formed Japanese Conservative Party would join, sharing the same election pledges that advocates anti-LDP, pro-US and anti-China. After all, these parties are groups of unprincipled people.
However, the US underestimates the Japanese people’s distrust against CDP and DPP, members of which once belonged to the same party, i.e., DPJ.
Those who betrayed the Japanese people 10 years ago are still there. CDP and DPP haven’t changed at all. The Japanese people will never trust CDP and DPP.
[Nobuyuki Baba, the leader of Ishin No kai]
Also, Ishin No kai will collapse as the Osaka-Kansai Japan Expo, which Ishin No Kai has been vigorously promoting, will collapse due to its cost-overrun and cancellation of foreign countries' participation.
Reiwa Shinsengumi will collapse too as its hypocrisy and apostacy will become obvious.
[Addendum dated December 6th 2023]
Alternatively, a new pro-US and anti-China party might be formed by prefectural governors and city mayors such as Yuriko Koike, Governor of Tokyo, and Fusaho Izumi, former mayor of Akashi-city, claiming they have experiences on how to govern. [15][16]
[Koike Yuriko, Governor of Tokyo and former Defense Minister, who advocates Japan's nuclear arming]
[Fusaho Izumi, former mayor of Akashi-city, who resigned as a mayor for his abusive remarks]
But, the party will collapse before the next general election as the Japanese people will notice that the party's real purpose is to transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China. Hawkish Yuriko Koike advocates that Japan should be nuclear-armed.
(3) Assassinations, a coup and a war
If the US's attempt to stage a change of government in Japan fails, then, the US might resort to more radical and violent measures.
Back in 1930s when Japan was carrying out aggression against China, some Japanese politicians who advocated peace and disarmament were assaulted or assassinated.
[Assassination attempt on Prime Minister Hamaguchi Osachi inside Tokyo Station, 14 November 1930]
Just like assassination attempt on Prime Minister Hamaguchi Osachi of 1930, League of Blood Incident of 1932 and May 15 incident of 1932, there can be assassinations or assassination attempts on pro-China politicians.
However, if a pro-China politician is assassinated, everyone would instantly notice which country is behind it. Assassinations of pro-China politicians would evoke the Japanese people's indignation against the US and rather facilitate establishment of pro-China government in Japan.
Furthermore, a coup might be staged to remove a civilian government and suspend the Constitution.
Actually, in even Germany, which is supposed to be the most democratic and stable country in Europe, a coup attempt was made in December 2022. The coup was foiled by the German government. The plotters were arrested on December 7th. [17]
[February 26 incident (a coup attempt by the Imperial Japanese Army) of 1936: Rebel troops entered and seized the Parliament building]
Before a coup is carried out in Japan, Japanese stock prices would be manipulated to plunge, and many cruel crimes would be committed here and there so that distrust and despair would prevail in the society.
Then, officers of JSDF (Japan Self-Defense Forces) would declare that all existing political parties are dysfunctional and corrupted and that the military takes responsibility to maintain the order of society until a clean reliable government is established.
However, in a current advanced country, a coup is extremely difficult. Everyone has a smart phone. Therefore, unusual moves of military forces can be noticed and reported immediately. A coup attempt will be thwarted.
Or, the US might make Japan to stage a false flag operation during the short-lived Motegi or Kamikawa administration, in which Japanese warships clash with Chinese warships around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands).
But, in that event, Japanese warships would be instantly destroyed by Chinese PLAN's anti-ship missiles and PLA's hypersonic cruise missiles. Impressed by China's far superior military power, Japan would understand that it had better avoid confrontation against China and come to establish a pro-China government.
Or, the US might desperately launch a Taiwan war during the short-lived Motegi or Kamikawa administration because that is the last chance for the US to use its military bases in Japan to intervene in a Taiwan war.
But, if a Taiwan war should happen, the US would be defeated by China.
5. The possibility of Mr. Nikai's establishing a new pro-China party
Despite the US’s counter-actions, pro-China Japanese government will be established.
It is reported that, when Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga met on November 9th, Mr. Nikai said, "We will do it thoroughly". What does that mean? [18]
There is a possibility that Mr. Nikai, working with Mr. Suga, would establish a new party that is pro-China.
The Japanese people who are fed up with dysfunctional existing parties would welcome and enthusiastically support Mr. Nikai's new party because, unlike pro-US parties that will lead to a war and stagflation, Mr. Nikai's new pro-China party, if established, would provide hope for lasting peace and prosperity for Japan.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
Based upon the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association which is a multi-partisan association, Mr. Nikai's pro-China party would be consisted of not only LDP's pro-China MPs but opposition parties' pro-China MPs as well, which could be more than one hundred or even one hundred and fifty MPs. Because of the Japanese people's support, Mr. Nikai's pro-China party would double its MPs after the next general election. It will become the largest party in Japan.
Triumphant Mr. Nikai's pro-China party, cooperating with pro-China Komeito-party would form a coalition government that is completely pro-China.
Whatever the coming development is, what is most important is the Japanese people's consistent support to a pro-China politicians. Then, the US's attempt to stage a change of government, assassinations, coup, and launching a Taiwan war would surely fail.
[Addendum dated December 7th 2023]
In 2021 when Mr. Nikai was Secretary General of LDP, he said he would very much welcome Yuriko Koike if she comes back to the stage of national politics, leaving the office of Governor of Tokyo. It might have crossed his mind that Ms. Koike could be one of excellent candidates for a Japanese PM. [19]
But, Mr. Nikai should avoid picking up Ms. Koike as a PM because she is too hawkish. Ms. Koike once said that Japan should be nuclear-armed, which means she presumes China and Russia as potential adversaries. If she becomes a PM, she would be out of control of Mr. Nikai and become a formidable enemy against China.
Thank you.
References :
(1) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(2) "China Seeks Opportunity to Monitor Fukushima Water Release", November 23rd 2023, nippon.com
(3) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(4) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(5) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
(6) 「岸田内閣支持率21％ 旧民主・菅政権以来の水準 毎日新聞世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１９日、毎日新聞
(7) 「底なしの支持率、与党に動揺＝「ポスト岸田」にらみ動きも―時事世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１６日、時事通信
(8) 「訪米の自民・茂木幹事長、「ポスト岸田」存在感アピールも足元に難題」、２０２３年５月２日、朝日新聞
(9) Profile of Yoko Kamikawa, The House of Representatives, Japan
(10) "Biggest faction of Japan's ruling party LDP allegedly pools secret funds", December 1st 2023, Kyodo News
(11) "LDP lawmaker’s office searched in election bribery investigation", November 17th 2023, The Asahi Shimbun
(12) "Bribery claims lead Japan parliamentary vice foreign minister to quit", August 4th 2023, Kyodo News
(13) 「政権交代起きた『2009年に似ている』 立憲・野田元首相が指摘」、２０２３年１１月２４日、FNN プライムオンライン
(14) 「国民・玉木代表『泉氏にエール送りたい』 対共産『よくわからない』」、１１月２８日、朝日新聞
(15) 「経済評論家 小池都知事の高校授業料無償化方針『明らかに国政選挙が近いということを意識した動き』」、２０２３年１２月６日、Sponichi Annex
(16) 「『立憲民主党が野党第一党ではムリ！だとしたら…』明石市で革命を起こした泉房穂がリアルに見つめる『政権交代へのロードマップ』」、２０２３年１２月４日、現代ビジネス
(17) "Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup", December 7th 2022, BBC
(18) 「岸田内閣の支持率低迷、うごめく非主流派…二階元幹事長『徹底的にやるぞ』」、２０２３年１１月１０日、産経新聞
(19) 「二階幹事長、小池知事が国政復帰なら『大いに歓迎』…知事選出馬も『見事なもの』と評価」、２０２１年７月８日、読売新聞
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