1. Japan is negotiating reciprocal access agreement with the Philippines and building multi-mission stealth frigates
In early November 2023, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida visited the Philippines to talk with Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.
The two close US allies, Japan and the Philippines, have agreed to negotiate a reciprocal access agreement (RAA), which would allow the Japan and Philippines' military forces to be deployed to each other's military bases. [1]
[Japanese PM Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., November 2023]
If a reciprocal access agreement is concluded, Japanese warplanes and warships will be able to operate from military bases in the Philippines.
Why will Japanese warplanes and warships operate from Philippine bases? For what missions?
Meanwhile, Japan is building and launching multi-mission stealth frigates one after another at a fast pace of two frigates a year.
[JS Mogami (FFM-1) is the lead ship of the Mogami-class multi-mission stealth frigate]
[JS Kumano (FFM-2), the second ship of the Mogami-class frigate, was launched in November 2020]
[JS Yubetsu (FFM-8), the eighth ship of the Mogami-class frigate, was launched in November 2023]
Why is Japan launching multi-mission stealth frigates at such a fast pace? For what missions?
2. Strategic importance of the Bashi Channel
It is likely that, in case of a Taiwan war, Japan's military warplanes and warships will be deployed in Philippine military bases and used as expendable units to break Chinese PLA's blockade over Taiwan and forcibly open supply lines through the Bashi Channel located between Taiwan and the Philippines.
[The Bashi Channel is located between Taiwan and the Philippines and is expected to be a life-line for Taiwan in case of a Taiwan war]
Taiwan has 150 days stockpiles of oil and two weeks stockpiles of natural gas. Considering China's probable saturated intensive attack against Taiwan's oil tanks and liquefied natural gas tanks, Taiwan will run up its oil and gas storage within a few weeks. A war is all about logistics. A Taiwan war could be finished quickly. [2]
At the same time, to prevent oil and gas supply to Taiwan, China will impose naval blockade around Taiwan so that no oil tankers, no liquefied natural gas carriers and no freight ships can approach.
On the side of the US, for the purpose of prolonging Taiwan War as long as possible, the US may launch the largest scale supply and logistical operations together with Japan, Australia and NATO countries to sustain Taiwan's resistance.
The US may desperately organize multi-national naval fleet and convoys that would supply weapons, ammunitions, oil, natural gas, foods and other necessities to Taiwan.
However, the convoy mission would be suicidal as China will attack the convoys with anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles.
That's the reason why Japan's warships would be used as expendable units. The US would not deploy its warships. Instead, the US would put into the convoy operation only its USVs (unmanned surface ships).
[DF-100, Chinese hypersonic cruise missile]
The US wants to examine capabilities of China’s missiles by using Japanese warships as guinea pigs.
3. Japan's purchase of 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles
Also, PM Kishida has made a decision that Japan will procure as many as 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. The US approved supply of Tomahawk missiles to Japan. [3]
Tomahawk cruise missiles can be equipped with nuclear warheads.
In fact, a Japanese right wing populist party, Ishin-No-Kai advocates Japan's nuclear-sharing with the US. [4]
Also, US is planning to deploy its intermediate-range missiles in Japan. [5]
[US Intermediate-range missiles, if deployed in Japan, can hit deep into the Chinese mainland including Beijing and Shanghai]
In the middle of November, US President Joe Biden had a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at APEC San Francisco.
The UK government replaced James Cleverly with David Cameron as a foreign secretary. David Cameron is famous for his friendly policies toward China, having called UK-China relations as a "golden era" in their bilateral relations.
However, the US and UK's recent appeasement policies toward China are only for the purpose of "buying time", just like the US and UK used Minsk II agreement to buy time for arming Ukraine to attack Russia.
The US and UK's rich people are firmly resolved to destroy China.
As soon as the US and UK get ready, in other words, as soon as they accomplish arming and transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China, they will launch a Taiwan war against China.
4. The result of PM Kishida's reckless policies: his resignation
What is the result of PM Kishida's such reckless policies?
The latest polls indicate that the Kishida cabinet's approval rate is as low as only 21% and its disapproval rate is as high as whopping 74%. [6]
The Kishida cabinet is over. The Japanese people are fed up with it. Instead of the Kishida administration which is so obedient and subservient to the US, the Japanese people and Japanese businesses would want to have a cabinet that is more peaceful and friendly with China.
Most Japanese people have begun to notice that the US is trying to transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China, just like Ukraine is attacking Russia as a US proxy.
LDP politicians have started ignoring PM Kishida and are looking for alternative candidates for a prime minister. Such movement will accelerate toward the end of this year.
It's possible that Kishida's resignation and a birth of a new cabinet will happen by the end of this year.
5. Pro-China Toshihiro Nikai vs pro-US/UK/Taiwan Taro Aso
Who would be the next prime minister of Japan?
It depends upon which businesses in Japan would prevail, pro-China businesses or pro-US/UK/Taiwan businesses.
Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, represents pro-China businesses in Japan while Mr. Taro Aso, vice-President of LDP, represents pro-US/UK/Taiwan businesses in Japan.
Mr. Nikai and Mr. Aso themselves would not become a prime minister. Instead, they would play a role of kingmaker picking up a candidate for the next prime minister of Japan and controlling him from behind the scenes.
[Pro-China Toshihiro Nikai (left) and Pro-US/UK/Taiwan Taro Aso]
Mr. Aso may pick up Mr. Toshimitsu Motegi, current Secretary General of LDP, or Ms. Yoko Kamikawa, current Foreign Minister, as a candidate for the next prime minister of Japan.
The family of Taro Aso have been serving UK for generations. His grandfather, Shigeru Yoshida was a Japanese ambassador to UK during WW2 and was a Japan's PM from 1946 to 1947 and from 1948 to 1954. Shigeru Yoshida's grand-grandfather Kenzo Yoshida was a wealthy Yokohama manager for a UK's merchant company, Jardine, Matheson and Company, which had been notorious for its opium trade in China.
Thus, Taro Aso is a born UK and US puppet. He is anti-China. During his visit to Taiwan in August 2023, Taro Aso met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen is a US puppet in Taiwan. [7]
[Smiles of Puppets: Taro Aso, a UK and US puppet in Japan met with Tsai Ing-wen, a US puppet in Taiwan, August 2023]
Also, Taro Aso met Chiang Wan-an, a grandson of Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang Wan-an is a potential US puppet in Taiwan. [8]
[Taro Aso, a UK and US puppet in Japan met with Chiang Wan-an, a potetial US puppet in Taiwan, August 2023]
Back in June 2023, Taro Aso met with Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024 when Ko Wen-je came to Japan. [9]
[Taro Aso met with Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024, June 2023]
Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024, is advocating maintaining status quo.
The US and UK are using Ko Wen-je to make Taiwan people have a daydream. Ignorant Taiwan people don't understand that the US and UK try to maintain status quo so as to buy time, during which they transform Japan into a proxy to attack China, and arm Japan as well as Taiwan with more weapons.
Status quo will never continue forever. As soon as the US and UK get ready (in other words, as soon as they accomplish transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China and arming it with sufficient weapons), they draw China into a Taiwan war.
6. Mr. Nikai will gather the majority of LDP MPs
Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, are long trusted friends.
[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [10]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [11]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.
[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [12]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [13]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that Mr. Nikai might make a surprise visit to China with some members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and Japanese business executives by the end of this year, during which he might negotiate on the issue of nuclear contaminated water of Fukushima nuclear power plant and China's import ban on Japanese seafoods.
If China slacken or even lift her import ban on Japanese seafoods during Mr. Nikai's visit and negotiation with China, his prestige would be enhanced very much.
Mr. Nikai, combined with cooperation with Mr. Suga, will bring about bright prospect of Japan's better economic relations with China and India, which will uplift Japanese businesses and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Then, it is possible that more and more LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would come to join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
According to news reports, LDP’s relatively junior MPs are concerned that, if unpopular PM Kishida remains in the premiership, they would not be able to be re-elected in the next election. They want someone popular among the Japanese people to be a prime minister. [14]
Knowing the minds and sentiments of LDP MPs, Mr. Nikai would pick up a person popular among the Japanese people as a candidate for the next PM such as Mr. Taro Kono, current Minister of Digital Affairs.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Taro Kono, Minister of Digital Affairs]
After he gathers the majority of LDP MPs on his side, Mr. Nikai would start forcing PM Kishida to resign. As some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament are a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker.
He could pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people due to his frank and untraditional style.
Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Ms. Seiko Noda or Ms. Yuko Obuchi as the next PM.
Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who makes him/her a prime minister.
7. Establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
Unlike PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
Even if the relations between China and the US is improved, it will not necessarily prevent a Taiwan war from breaking out because it is Japan that would be a main offensive force to attack China, being used as a US proxy.
Instead, if a pro-China government is established in Japan, it would substantially reduce the possibility of breaking out of a Taiwan war and significantly increase the possibility of a KMT candidate's victory in Taiwan presidential election of the middle of January 2024.
Thank you.
[Addendum: A surprise visit to China by Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and his meeting with Cai Qi, a senior official of CPC, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC) met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP & Komeito-party should be resumed. [15]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, the President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai will provide it in his coming visit. [16]
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Philippines aiming to seal "reciprocal" troop pact with Japan", November 6th 2023, Reuters
(2) "Taiwan’s Greatest Vulnerability Is Its Energy Supply", September 13th 2022, The Diplomat
(3) "US State Dept OKs potential sale of 400 Tomahawk missiles to Japan -Pentagon", November 18th 2023, Reuters
(4) 「『"核共有"議論開始を』 日本維新の会 政府に提言」、２０２２年３月３日、NHK
(5) "Washington weighing deploying medium-range missiles to U.S. forces in Japan, Sankei reports", February 5th 2023, Reuters
(6) 「岸田内閣支持率21％ 旧民主・菅政権以来の水準 毎日新聞世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１９日、毎日新聞
(7) "Ex-Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso hopes for closer ties with Taiwan", August 10th 2022, Focus Taiwan
(8) 「自民・麻生副総裁と会談 台北市長、都市サミット開催への協力求める／台湾」、２０２３年８月９日、フォーカス台湾
(9) 「柯文哲氏日本を訪問 麻生太郎元首相らと面会」、２０２３年６月１２日、台湾新聞
(10) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(11) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(12) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(13) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
(14) 「底なしの支持率、与党に動揺＝「ポスト岸田」にらみ動きも―時事世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１６日、時事通信
(15) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(16) "China Seeks Opportunity to Monitor Fukushima Water Release", November 23rd 2023, nippon.com
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
In early November 2023, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida visited the Philippines to talk with Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.
The two close US allies, Japan and the Philippines, have agreed to negotiate a reciprocal access agreement (RAA), which would allow the Japan and Philippines' military forces to be deployed to each other's military bases. [1]
[Japanese PM Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., November 2023]
If a reciprocal access agreement is concluded, Japanese warplanes and warships will be able to operate from military bases in the Philippines.
Why will Japanese warplanes and warships operate from Philippine bases? For what missions?
Meanwhile, Japan is building and launching multi-mission stealth frigates one after another at a fast pace of two frigates a year.
[JS Mogami (FFM-1) is the lead ship of the Mogami-class multi-mission stealth frigate]
[JS Kumano (FFM-2), the second ship of the Mogami-class frigate, was launched in November 2020]
[JS Yubetsu (FFM-8), the eighth ship of the Mogami-class frigate, was launched in November 2023]
Why is Japan launching multi-mission stealth frigates at such a fast pace? For what missions?
2. Strategic importance of the Bashi Channel
It is likely that, in case of a Taiwan war, Japan's military warplanes and warships will be deployed in Philippine military bases and used as expendable units to break Chinese PLA's blockade over Taiwan and forcibly open supply lines through the Bashi Channel located between Taiwan and the Philippines.
[The Bashi Channel is located between Taiwan and the Philippines and is expected to be a life-line for Taiwan in case of a Taiwan war]
Taiwan has 150 days stockpiles of oil and two weeks stockpiles of natural gas. Considering China's probable saturated intensive attack against Taiwan's oil tanks and liquefied natural gas tanks, Taiwan will run up its oil and gas storage within a few weeks. A war is all about logistics. A Taiwan war could be finished quickly. [2]
At the same time, to prevent oil and gas supply to Taiwan, China will impose naval blockade around Taiwan so that no oil tankers, no liquefied natural gas carriers and no freight ships can approach.
On the side of the US, for the purpose of prolonging Taiwan War as long as possible, the US may launch the largest scale supply and logistical operations together with Japan, Australia and NATO countries to sustain Taiwan's resistance.
The US may desperately organize multi-national naval fleet and convoys that would supply weapons, ammunitions, oil, natural gas, foods and other necessities to Taiwan.
However, the convoy mission would be suicidal as China will attack the convoys with anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles.
That's the reason why Japan's warships would be used as expendable units. The US would not deploy its warships. Instead, the US would put into the convoy operation only its USVs (unmanned surface ships).
[DF-100, Chinese hypersonic cruise missile]
The US wants to examine capabilities of China’s missiles by using Japanese warships as guinea pigs.
3. Japan's purchase of 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles
Also, PM Kishida has made a decision that Japan will procure as many as 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. The US approved supply of Tomahawk missiles to Japan. [3]
Tomahawk cruise missiles can be equipped with nuclear warheads.
In fact, a Japanese right wing populist party, Ishin-No-Kai advocates Japan's nuclear-sharing with the US. [4]
Also, US is planning to deploy its intermediate-range missiles in Japan. [5]
[US Intermediate-range missiles, if deployed in Japan, can hit deep into the Chinese mainland including Beijing and Shanghai]
In the middle of November, US President Joe Biden had a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at APEC San Francisco.
The UK government replaced James Cleverly with David Cameron as a foreign secretary. David Cameron is famous for his friendly policies toward China, having called UK-China relations as a "golden era" in their bilateral relations.
However, the US and UK's recent appeasement policies toward China are only for the purpose of "buying time", just like the US and UK used Minsk II agreement to buy time for arming Ukraine to attack Russia.
The US and UK's rich people are firmly resolved to destroy China.
As soon as the US and UK get ready, in other words, as soon as they accomplish arming and transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China, they will launch a Taiwan war against China.
4. The result of PM Kishida's reckless policies: his resignation
What is the result of PM Kishida's such reckless policies?
The latest polls indicate that the Kishida cabinet's approval rate is as low as only 21% and its disapproval rate is as high as whopping 74%. [6]
The Kishida cabinet is over. The Japanese people are fed up with it. Instead of the Kishida administration which is so obedient and subservient to the US, the Japanese people and Japanese businesses would want to have a cabinet that is more peaceful and friendly with China.
Most Japanese people have begun to notice that the US is trying to transform Japan into a US proxy to attack China, just like Ukraine is attacking Russia as a US proxy.
LDP politicians have started ignoring PM Kishida and are looking for alternative candidates for a prime minister. Such movement will accelerate toward the end of this year.
It's possible that Kishida's resignation and a birth of a new cabinet will happen by the end of this year.
5. Pro-China Toshihiro Nikai vs pro-US/UK/Taiwan Taro Aso
Who would be the next prime minister of Japan?
It depends upon which businesses in Japan would prevail, pro-China businesses or pro-US/UK/Taiwan businesses.
Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, represents pro-China businesses in Japan while Mr. Taro Aso, vice-President of LDP, represents pro-US/UK/Taiwan businesses in Japan.
Mr. Nikai and Mr. Aso themselves would not become a prime minister. Instead, they would play a role of kingmaker picking up a candidate for the next prime minister of Japan and controlling him from behind the scenes.
[Pro-China Toshihiro Nikai (left) and Pro-US/UK/Taiwan Taro Aso]
Mr. Aso may pick up Mr. Toshimitsu Motegi, current Secretary General of LDP, or Ms. Yoko Kamikawa, current Foreign Minister, as a candidate for the next prime minister of Japan.
The family of Taro Aso have been serving UK for generations. His grandfather, Shigeru Yoshida was a Japanese ambassador to UK during WW2 and was a Japan's PM from 1946 to 1947 and from 1948 to 1954. Shigeru Yoshida's grand-grandfather Kenzo Yoshida was a wealthy Yokohama manager for a UK's merchant company, Jardine, Matheson and Company, which had been notorious for its opium trade in China.
Thus, Taro Aso is a born UK and US puppet. He is anti-China. During his visit to Taiwan in August 2023, Taro Aso met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen is a US puppet in Taiwan. [7]
[Smiles of Puppets: Taro Aso, a UK and US puppet in Japan met with Tsai Ing-wen, a US puppet in Taiwan, August 2023]
Also, Taro Aso met Chiang Wan-an, a grandson of Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang Wan-an is a potential US puppet in Taiwan. [8]
[Taro Aso, a UK and US puppet in Japan met with Chiang Wan-an, a potetial US puppet in Taiwan, August 2023]
Back in June 2023, Taro Aso met with Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024 when Ko Wen-je came to Japan. [9]
[Taro Aso met with Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024, June 2023]
Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People's Party's candidate for Taiwan presidential election of 2024, is advocating maintaining status quo.
The US and UK are using Ko Wen-je to make Taiwan people have a daydream. Ignorant Taiwan people don't understand that the US and UK try to maintain status quo so as to buy time, during which they transform Japan into a proxy to attack China, and arm Japan as well as Taiwan with more weapons.
Status quo will never continue forever. As soon as the US and UK get ready (in other words, as soon as they accomplish transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China and arming it with sufficient weapons), they draw China into a Taiwan war.
6. Mr. Nikai will gather the majority of LDP MPs
Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, are long trusted friends.
[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [10]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [11]
Mr. Nikai will consolidate and mobilize pro-China businesses in Japan, making the most of broad nationwide networks of members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association.
Economic business relations between China and Japan is firm. China is the top export and import partners for Japan.
.[In 2021, Japan's export to China was 19.0% of the total export, surpassing its export to the US which was 18.3%]
[In 2021, Japan's import from China was 24.8% of the total import. It's more than double of its import from the US which was 11.7%]
IMF predicts China would grow 5.0% this year while Germany's growth would be -0.5%, UK 0.4%, USA 2.1%, Japan 2.0% and Italy 0.7%. [12]
China's consumer market is growing fast in a large scale, which will expand Japan's export to China more and more.
Expansion of e-commerce between China and Japan will make the economic relations even more robust in the coming decades.
If these business and economic factors are reflected to a political sphere, pro-China Mr. Nikai can gather the majority of LDP MPs on his side.
In addition, Mr. Nikai is cooperating with former Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga. Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are close friends and allies.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM]
Mr. Suga is Chairman of the Japan India Association, foundation to promote Japan and India relations. As such, Mr. Suga visited India together with Japanese business executives in July 2023. [13]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association and former Japanese PM and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
[Yoshihide Suga, Chairman of the Japan India Association, the delegation members of Japan and India Association and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, July 2023]
Therefore, the combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga are representing pro-China and pro-India businesses in Japan. China and India are expected to be economic superpowers in the coming decades. The combination of Mr. Nikai and Mr. Suga would attract the majority of Japanese businesses.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that Mr. Nikai might make a surprise visit to China with some members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and Japanese business executives by the end of this year, during which he might negotiate on the issue of nuclear contaminated water of Fukushima nuclear power plant and China's import ban on Japanese seafoods.
If China slacken or even lift her import ban on Japanese seafoods during Mr. Nikai's visit and negotiation with China, his prestige would be enhanced very much.
Mr. Nikai, combined with cooperation with Mr. Suga, will bring about bright prospect of Japan's better economic relations with China and India, which will uplift Japanese businesses and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan.
Then, it is possible that more and more LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would come to join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
According to news reports, LDP’s relatively junior MPs are concerned that, if unpopular PM Kishida remains in the premiership, they would not be able to be re-elected in the next election. They want someone popular among the Japanese people to be a prime minister. [14]
Knowing the minds and sentiments of LDP MPs, Mr. Nikai would pick up a person popular among the Japanese people as a candidate for the next PM such as Mr. Taro Kono, current Minister of Digital Affairs.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, and Taro Kono, Minister of Digital Affairs]
After he gathers the majority of LDP MPs on his side, Mr. Nikai would start forcing PM Kishida to resign. As some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament are a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker.
He could pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people due to his frank and untraditional style.
Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Ms. Seiko Noda or Ms. Yuko Obuchi as the next PM.
Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who makes him/her a prime minister.
7. Establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
Unlike PM Kishida and his cabinet, the new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China.
Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, without using US military bases in Japan, US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of the middle of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
Even if the relations between China and the US is improved, it will not necessarily prevent a Taiwan war from breaking out because it is Japan that would be a main offensive force to attack China, being used as a US proxy.
Instead, if a pro-China government is established in Japan, it would substantially reduce the possibility of breaking out of a Taiwan war and significantly increase the possibility of a KMT candidate's victory in Taiwan presidential election of the middle of January 2024.
Thank you.
[Addendum: A surprise visit to China by Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and his meeting with Cai Qi, a senior official of CPC, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
In late November, Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito made a surprise visit to China and met with senior officials of China. His visit had been kept secret to the public until only one day before his visit, which was a good way to prevent the US's sabotage to block his visit.
Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China (CPC) met with Mr. Yamaguchi. Both sides boldly agreed that China-Japan ruling party talk by CPC and Japan's LDP & Komeito-party should be resumed. [15]
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Cai Qi, a senior official of Communist Party of China]
Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, too met with Mr. Yamaguchi, expressing sincere condolences to the family of late Daisaku Ikeda, the President of Soka Gakkai, and gratitude to Mr. Ikeda's significant contribution to good China-Japan relations.
[Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of Japan's ruling coalition party Komeito, and Wang Yi, China's top diplomat]
Wang Yi indicated that China demanded its own independent monitoring over Fukushima nuclear contaminated water, by which he suggested "the key" to solve the issue of the nuclear contaminated water and China's import ban on Japan's seafoods. Mr. Toshihiro Nikai will provide it in his coming visit. [16]
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Philippines aiming to seal "reciprocal" troop pact with Japan", November 6th 2023, Reuters
(2) "Taiwan’s Greatest Vulnerability Is Its Energy Supply", September 13th 2022, The Diplomat
(3) "US State Dept OKs potential sale of 400 Tomahawk missiles to Japan -Pentagon", November 18th 2023, Reuters
(4) 「『"核共有"議論開始を』 日本維新の会 政府に提言」、２０２２年３月３日、NHK
(5) "Washington weighing deploying medium-range missiles to U.S. forces in Japan, Sankei reports", February 5th 2023, Reuters
(6) 「岸田内閣支持率21％ 旧民主・菅政権以来の水準 毎日新聞世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１９日、毎日新聞
(7) "Ex-Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso hopes for closer ties with Taiwan", August 10th 2022, Focus Taiwan
(8) 「自民・麻生副総裁と会談 台北市長、都市サミット開催への協力求める／台湾」、２０２３年８月９日、フォーカス台湾
(9) 「柯文哲氏日本を訪問 麻生太郎元首相らと面会」、２０２３年６月１２日、台湾新聞
(10) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(11) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
(12) "Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences", October 10th 2023, IMF
(13) "PM met H.E. Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Chairman, Japan-India Association (JIA) and former PM of Japan", July 6th 2023, PM India
(14) 「底なしの支持率、与党に動揺＝「ポスト岸田」にらみ動きも―時事世論調査」、２０２３年１１月１６日、時事通信
(15) 「公明・山口代表、日本産水産物の輸入停止に懸念表明 中国共産党序列５位と会談」、２０２３年１１月２２日、産経新聞
(16) "China Seeks Opportunity to Monitor Fukushima Water Release", November 23rd 2023, nippon.com
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.