1. Qin Gang's being removed from the post of foreign minister
On 25th July, it was announced that Qin Gang was removed from the post of foreign minister of China and that China's top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, assumes the post of foreign minister of China as well.
[Qin Gang, who was removed from the post of foreign minister of China]
The announcement was made after one month-long disappearance of Qin Gang from a public scene. Therefore, various speculations were made ranging from his physical problems, infection of COVID-19 to a power struggle with Wang Yi and even affairs with a female TV caster.
Physical problems and infection of COVID-19 are curable.
A power struggle with Wang Yi is nonsense because Xi Jinping would never allows power struggles between subordinates under his leadership.
Affairs with a female TV caster is even more nonsense. Qin Gang was serving as a State Councilor of China as well. High morality and responsibility of the position never allows him to commit inappropriate affairs. Even if he had had affairs, he could have denied it and kept his post if he had been an able foreign minister.
So, it is likely that his removal from the post of foreign minister was due to his "incompetence" to serve the job. Looking back 7 months of his record as a foreign minister, it can be seen that China's diplomatic focus was mainly upon the US while Russia and Japan were treated less carefully.
2. China's diplomacy toward Russia under foreign minister Qin Gang
Currently, Russia is fighting a defensive war in Ukraine, trying to defend Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Having built robust defense lines, Russia is resisting and repelling Ukraine's so-called counter offensive so far. However, the US has started to supply controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine so that Russian mine fields and defense lines would be penetrated by Ukraine army.
Cluster bombs release smaller submunitions many of which unexplode and pose a risk to civilians long after their use. So, an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster munitions has been ratified by as many as 111 states.
However, despite such controversial nature of cluster bombs, China could not effectively oppose and prevent the US from supplying cluster bombs to Ukraine.
The US operates over 200 military biological laboratories worldwide. There is a possibility that the US provokes Russia by cluster bombs in Ukraine and that, if Russia retaliates with cluster bombs, the US would let Ukraine use biological & chemical weapons.
3. China's diplomacy toward Japan under foreign minister Qin Gang
As for Japan, China has been criticizing Japan's plan to discharge Fukushima nuclear contaminated water to the Pacific Ocean. As a result, China imposed a strict inspection over Japan's seafoods to be imported to China, which is a virtual import ban against Japanese seafoods. This is understandable, considering the danger of nuclear contaminated water and the importance of people's health.
However, in addition, China cancelled welcoming Japan's Komeito-party delegates whose visit had been originally scheduled to take place in the middle of July. Also the visit by members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association led by Chairman Toshihiro Nikai of LDP was postponed too and the schedule is not yet fixed.
Mr. Nikai is the most influential pro-China politician in Japan. And, Komeito-party is a pro-China party for a long time. Therefore, China's blocking their visits was "throwing the baby out with the bathwater".
To block the visits of pro-China politicians would only deteriorate the situation. Instead, China is expected to accept the visits of pro-China politicians and discuss together so as to come up with a solution on issues between China and Japan.
3. China's diplomacy toward the US under foreign minister Qin Gang
Qin Gang's career doesn't include Russia or Japan. So, he doesn't have close friends in Russia or Japan.
Qin Gang experienced ambassadorship only once for a very short time as Chinese ambassador to the US from 2021 to 2023.
Qin Gang was the youngest foreign minister in PRC's history. He was too young and inexperienced.
As a Director of the Protocol Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2015 to 2018, Qin Gang was good in making arrangements for meetings between Chinese leaders and foreign leaders. But, he himself was not good at meeting with foreign leaders as he is not a very social person.
After assuming the post of a foreign minister in December 2022, Qin Gang was focusing upon recovering a good relations between China and the US while treating Russia and Japan less carefully.
The US responded favorably. In late June and early July, American business leaders such as Bill Gates, former CEO of Microsoft, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase visited China.
[US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and China's Foreign Minister (at that time) Qin Gang]
US secretary of state Anthony Blinken and US treasury secretary Janet Yellen visited China too.
[U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in July 2023]
Thanks to Qin Gang's human connection to the US, the China-US relations seemed to start recovering finally. Is it a time for celebration?
But, there is a possibility that Qin Gang might have been used by the US. He might have fallen into a trap of the US's plot.
It is likely that, by resuming a better relations with China, the US is only "buying time" just like it did with Minsk II agreement against Russia.
Actually, the US has already determined and is firmly resolved that it must destroy China.
In July 2022, the heads of US and UK security services have made an unprecedented joint appearance to warn of the threat from China. FBI director Christopher Wray said China was the "biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security". [1]
[MI5 head Ken McCallum (left) and FBI director Christopher Wray (right) made an unprecedented joint appearance in London]
US Republicans and US Democrats are confronting each other in almost everything. But, they share one common conviction, i.e., China is the biggest threat to the US and that the US must destroy China.
Just like ancient Rome, the US has always been destroying its competitors one after another in its history since the foundation. It can't and won't change its tradition and culture as a warmonger.
Associate Dean and Director of Global Social Action Rabbi Abraham Cooper of the Simon Wiesenthal Center (SWC), the most influential Jewish human rights organization based in the US, said that Communist China and her leaders were the biggest concern. [2]
Besides, EU labeled China as a systematic rival. What does that mean? The West is based upon ancient Rome's civilization, and thus it is essentially "Rich-People First" and accepts "Inequality between the Haves and the Have-nots". On the other hand, China is seeking for Socialism with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially "People First" and "Common Prosperity".
Rich people of the West fear that American ordinary people and European ordinary people notice that "People First" and "Common Prosperity" are real and possible, seeing the model and achievement of China. Thus, rich people of the West really hate China's system and are firmly resolved that they must ultimately destroy China.
However, destroying China requires enormous political, economic and military preparation. So, until they get ready to attack China, the West seek harmonious relations with China for the purpose of buying time just like they did using Minsk II agreement against Russia.
And, when they get ready, the US and UK would try to draw China into a Taiwan war and prolong the war as long as possible during which they would attempt to launch a coup as well as uprising in the Chinese mainland to topple the Chinese Communist government. Or, they might use their agents and collaborators implanted inside the Forbidden City to stage a palace coup.
But, the US and UK themselves are unlikely to attack China directly because it could lead to a catastrophic nuclear war, exchanging ICBMs and ruining each other. Rather, the US and UK would wage a proxy war and let Japan to attack China just like the West is using Ukraine as a proxy to attack Russia. So, the West would try to transform Japan into a proxy to attack China and arm it with sufficient weapons.
In fact, the process of transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China is already underway. the US is promoting the Japanese far right-wing populist party Ishin No Kai that is very anti-China.
[US ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel and the president of right-wing populist party Ishin No Kai Nobuyuki Baba whom the US wants to promote as a "Japan's Zelensky"]
Ishin No Kai is advocating that Japan should implement "nuclear-sharing" with the US. Ishin No Kai substantially increased their seats in local legislatures in elections of 2023. They plan to be the largest opposition party in the next general election to form a coalition government with LDP.
The US and UK are currently buying time. And, as soon as they get ready (in other words, as soon as they accomplish transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China and arming it with sufficient weapons), they draw China into a Taiwan war.
[Intermediate-range missiles, if deployed in Japan, can hit deep into the Chinese mainland including Beijing and Shanghai]
4. China's top diplomat Wang Yi shifts focus of China's diplomacy toward Japan and Taiwan
Even if there had not been the removal of Qin Gang, Wang Yi would have been supposed to supervise Qin Gang to supplement his shortcomings.
As a director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Wang Yi is a top diplomat of China.
Immediately after Wang Yi assumed the post of China's foreign minister too, Putin's visit to China in October was announced. [3]
Wang Yi was a Chinese Ambassador to Japan from 2004 to 2007. He speaks perfect Japanese. He knows Japan very well.
Wang Yi was a Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's foreign ministry from 2008 to 2013. He knows Taiwan very well too.
Who could be a better person to be in charge of China's diplomacy than Wang Yi at this critical juncture on Japan and Taiwan?
Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association are long trusted friends.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
Wang Yi has friends in Japan's Komeito-party too.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Kazuyoshi Akaba (Komeito-party), Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan (at that time), November 25th, 2019]
Wang Yi's Japanese friends include not only central government people but local government people as well.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Heita Kawakatsu, Governor of Shizuoka Prefecture of Japan, November 24th, 2019]
Wang Yi's long trusted friend, Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [4]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful political apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai is planning to visit China in late August or early September. When he visits China, he will take with him dozens of MPs of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons from manufacturing industries, financial industries, transportation industries, IT industries, tourism industries and so on.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [5]
When he visits China in late August or early September, Mr. Nikai will meet with President Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping will welcome him and dozens of MPs of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as well as thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons.
And, President Xi Jinping will emphasize People-First Principle and the power of the people.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Yi, top Chinese diplomat too. They are long trusted friends.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister (at that time)]
After the meeting with President Xi Jinping and Mr. Wang Yi, Mr. Nikai will make a joint statement together with Mr. Wang Yi in which followings will be confirmed.
- the importance of the People-First principle
- Japan's adherence to One-China principle
- the importance of preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity
- the importance of Non-Interference in a nation's internal affairs
- recognition that peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is pursued and supported while China reserves the option of taking all measures necessary
- recognition that it is already the multipolar world
- promoting equal win-win relations
- Japan would cooperate China's BRI, GDI, GSI and GCI
- facilitating digital economy
5. The establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
The bright prospect of better economic relations between China and Japan and peace in East Asia will contribute to the better relations between the two countries and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan. Japanese businesses and Japanese people will be impressed and appreciate Mr. Nikai's accomplishment.
So, it is possible that, after Mr. Nikai's visit to China, many LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
[PM Fumio Kishida and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
Then, pressures within LDP and from the Japanese people that call for PM Kishida to resign will increase very much. PM Kishida's approval rate is as low as around 30% in polls even today.
[The Kishida administration's approval rate is as low as 30.8 % as of July 2023]
Under the pressures, even a small wrong comment of PM Kishida or a single defeat in a by-election could trigger a resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet.
Or, as some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament is a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker. He might pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people for his frank and untraditional style. Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Seiko Noda or Yuko Obuchi as the next PM. Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who would make him/her a prime minister.
The new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China. Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis without using US military bases in Japan.
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
As mentioned above, even if the relations between China and the US is good, it will not necessarily prevent a Taiwan war from breaking out because it is Japan that would be a main offensive force to attack China, being used as a US proxy.
Instead, if a pro-China government is established in Japan, it would substantially reduce the possibility of breaking out of a Taiwan war and significantly increase the possibility of a KMT candidate's victory in Taiwan presidential election 2024.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "China: MI5 and FBI heads warn of ‘immense’ threat", July 7th 2022, BBC
(2) 「『最大の懸念は共産中国』米ユダヤ系団体副所長、権力集中に危機感」、２０２３年７月５日、産経新聞
(3) "Putin's visit to China during BRI forum in October shows Russia's support to China: experts", July 26th 2023, The Global Times
(4) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(5) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
On 25th July, it was announced that Qin Gang was removed from the post of foreign minister of China and that China's top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, assumes the post of foreign minister of China as well.
[Qin Gang, who was removed from the post of foreign minister of China]
The announcement was made after one month-long disappearance of Qin Gang from a public scene. Therefore, various speculations were made ranging from his physical problems, infection of COVID-19 to a power struggle with Wang Yi and even affairs with a female TV caster.
Physical problems and infection of COVID-19 are curable.
A power struggle with Wang Yi is nonsense because Xi Jinping would never allows power struggles between subordinates under his leadership.
Affairs with a female TV caster is even more nonsense. Qin Gang was serving as a State Councilor of China as well. High morality and responsibility of the position never allows him to commit inappropriate affairs. Even if he had had affairs, he could have denied it and kept his post if he had been an able foreign minister.
So, it is likely that his removal from the post of foreign minister was due to his "incompetence" to serve the job. Looking back 7 months of his record as a foreign minister, it can be seen that China's diplomatic focus was mainly upon the US while Russia and Japan were treated less carefully.
2. China's diplomacy toward Russia under foreign minister Qin Gang
Currently, Russia is fighting a defensive war in Ukraine, trying to defend Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Having built robust defense lines, Russia is resisting and repelling Ukraine's so-called counter offensive so far. However, the US has started to supply controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine so that Russian mine fields and defense lines would be penetrated by Ukraine army.
Cluster bombs release smaller submunitions many of which unexplode and pose a risk to civilians long after their use. So, an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster munitions has been ratified by as many as 111 states.
However, despite such controversial nature of cluster bombs, China could not effectively oppose and prevent the US from supplying cluster bombs to Ukraine.
The US operates over 200 military biological laboratories worldwide. There is a possibility that the US provokes Russia by cluster bombs in Ukraine and that, if Russia retaliates with cluster bombs, the US would let Ukraine use biological & chemical weapons.
3. China's diplomacy toward Japan under foreign minister Qin Gang
As for Japan, China has been criticizing Japan's plan to discharge Fukushima nuclear contaminated water to the Pacific Ocean. As a result, China imposed a strict inspection over Japan's seafoods to be imported to China, which is a virtual import ban against Japanese seafoods. This is understandable, considering the danger of nuclear contaminated water and the importance of people's health.
However, in addition, China cancelled welcoming Japan's Komeito-party delegates whose visit had been originally scheduled to take place in the middle of July. Also the visit by members of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association led by Chairman Toshihiro Nikai of LDP was postponed too and the schedule is not yet fixed.
Mr. Nikai is the most influential pro-China politician in Japan. And, Komeito-party is a pro-China party for a long time. Therefore, China's blocking their visits was "throwing the baby out with the bathwater".
To block the visits of pro-China politicians would only deteriorate the situation. Instead, China is expected to accept the visits of pro-China politicians and discuss together so as to come up with a solution on issues between China and Japan.
3. China's diplomacy toward the US under foreign minister Qin Gang
Qin Gang's career doesn't include Russia or Japan. So, he doesn't have close friends in Russia or Japan.
Qin Gang experienced ambassadorship only once for a very short time as Chinese ambassador to the US from 2021 to 2023.
Qin Gang was the youngest foreign minister in PRC's history. He was too young and inexperienced.
As a Director of the Protocol Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2015 to 2018, Qin Gang was good in making arrangements for meetings between Chinese leaders and foreign leaders. But, he himself was not good at meeting with foreign leaders as he is not a very social person.
After assuming the post of a foreign minister in December 2022, Qin Gang was focusing upon recovering a good relations between China and the US while treating Russia and Japan less carefully.
The US responded favorably. In late June and early July, American business leaders such as Bill Gates, former CEO of Microsoft, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase visited China.
[US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and China's Foreign Minister (at that time) Qin Gang]
US secretary of state Anthony Blinken and US treasury secretary Janet Yellen visited China too.
[U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in July 2023]
Thanks to Qin Gang's human connection to the US, the China-US relations seemed to start recovering finally. Is it a time for celebration?
But, there is a possibility that Qin Gang might have been used by the US. He might have fallen into a trap of the US's plot.
It is likely that, by resuming a better relations with China, the US is only "buying time" just like it did with Minsk II agreement against Russia.
Actually, the US has already determined and is firmly resolved that it must destroy China.
In July 2022, the heads of US and UK security services have made an unprecedented joint appearance to warn of the threat from China. FBI director Christopher Wray said China was the "biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security". [1]
[MI5 head Ken McCallum (left) and FBI director Christopher Wray (right) made an unprecedented joint appearance in London]
US Republicans and US Democrats are confronting each other in almost everything. But, they share one common conviction, i.e., China is the biggest threat to the US and that the US must destroy China.
Just like ancient Rome, the US has always been destroying its competitors one after another in its history since the foundation. It can't and won't change its tradition and culture as a warmonger.
Associate Dean and Director of Global Social Action Rabbi Abraham Cooper of the Simon Wiesenthal Center (SWC), the most influential Jewish human rights organization based in the US, said that Communist China and her leaders were the biggest concern. [2]
Besides, EU labeled China as a systematic rival. What does that mean? The West is based upon ancient Rome's civilization, and thus it is essentially "Rich-People First" and accepts "Inequality between the Haves and the Have-nots". On the other hand, China is seeking for Socialism with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially "People First" and "Common Prosperity".
Rich people of the West fear that American ordinary people and European ordinary people notice that "People First" and "Common Prosperity" are real and possible, seeing the model and achievement of China. Thus, rich people of the West really hate China's system and are firmly resolved that they must ultimately destroy China.
However, destroying China requires enormous political, economic and military preparation. So, until they get ready to attack China, the West seek harmonious relations with China for the purpose of buying time just like they did using Minsk II agreement against Russia.
And, when they get ready, the US and UK would try to draw China into a Taiwan war and prolong the war as long as possible during which they would attempt to launch a coup as well as uprising in the Chinese mainland to topple the Chinese Communist government. Or, they might use their agents and collaborators implanted inside the Forbidden City to stage a palace coup.
But, the US and UK themselves are unlikely to attack China directly because it could lead to a catastrophic nuclear war, exchanging ICBMs and ruining each other. Rather, the US and UK would wage a proxy war and let Japan to attack China just like the West is using Ukraine as a proxy to attack Russia. So, the West would try to transform Japan into a proxy to attack China and arm it with sufficient weapons.
In fact, the process of transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China is already underway. the US is promoting the Japanese far right-wing populist party Ishin No Kai that is very anti-China.
[US ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel and the president of right-wing populist party Ishin No Kai Nobuyuki Baba whom the US wants to promote as a "Japan's Zelensky"]
Ishin No Kai is advocating that Japan should implement "nuclear-sharing" with the US. Ishin No Kai substantially increased their seats in local legislatures in elections of 2023. They plan to be the largest opposition party in the next general election to form a coalition government with LDP.
The US and UK are currently buying time. And, as soon as they get ready (in other words, as soon as they accomplish transforming Japan into a proxy to attack China and arming it with sufficient weapons), they draw China into a Taiwan war.
[Intermediate-range missiles, if deployed in Japan, can hit deep into the Chinese mainland including Beijing and Shanghai]
4. China's top diplomat Wang Yi shifts focus of China's diplomacy toward Japan and Taiwan
Even if there had not been the removal of Qin Gang, Wang Yi would have been supposed to supervise Qin Gang to supplement his shortcomings.
As a director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Wang Yi is a top diplomat of China.
Immediately after Wang Yi assumed the post of China's foreign minister too, Putin's visit to China in October was announced. [3]
Wang Yi was a Chinese Ambassador to Japan from 2004 to 2007. He speaks perfect Japanese. He knows Japan very well.
Wang Yi was a Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's foreign ministry from 2008 to 2013. He knows Taiwan very well too.
Who could be a better person to be in charge of China's diplomacy than Wang Yi at this critical juncture on Japan and Taiwan?
Wang Yi and Mr. Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association are long trusted friends.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time)]
Wang Yi has friends in Japan's Komeito-party too.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Kazuyoshi Akaba (Komeito-party), Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan (at that time), November 25th, 2019]
Wang Yi's Japanese friends include not only central government people but local government people as well.
[State Councilor and Foreign Minister (at that time) Wang Yi met with Heita Kawakatsu, Governor of Shizuoka Prefecture of Japan, November 24th, 2019]
Wang Yi's long trusted friend, Mr. Nikai will play a critical role to improve and enhance the relations between China and Japan in the coming months.
Back in 2015, when Mr. Nikai visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, he took with him as many as three thousand (yes, 3,000) business persons to China. [4]
[Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time) and his delegation met with President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
[Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission (at that time), Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of General Council of LDP (at that time), and President Xi Jinping, Beijing in 2015]
After Mr. Nikai and his delegation's visit to China in 2015, economic relations between China and Japan was boosted very much.
In 2017, Mr. Nikai led his delegation to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing, despite the Japanese government's official position not to join the Belt and Road Initiative due to US intervention.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and his delegation to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in 2017]
Mr. Nikai is now starting to use the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as his new powerful political apparatus to exert pro-China political power. This time, he can exert power not only toward ruling parties but opposition parties as well because the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association is a multi-partisan association.
Mr. Nikai is planning to visit China in late August or early September. When he visits China, he will take with him dozens of MPs of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association and thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons from manufacturing industries, financial industries, transportation industries, IT industries, tourism industries and so on.
Mr. Nikai's political power is not his personal individual power. He is powerful because the broad range of Japanese businesses, hundreds of thousands of Japanese companies and tens of millions of Japanese business persons who want to do business with China support him.
In his interview of February 2023, Mr. Nikai mentioned, "What is important is cultural, diplomatic, economic relations and, above all, the people's power that back up and support them. The people's power of expression and power of actions matter. Therefore, I took a large number of people to China as I had opportunities. Usually, politicians visit foreign countries alone arrogantly. But, nothing works unless the people understand." [5]
When he visits China in late August or early September, Mr. Nikai will meet with President Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping will welcome him and dozens of MPs of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association as well as thousands of pro-China Japanese business persons.
And, President Xi Jinping will emphasize People-First Principle and the power of the people.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and President Xi Jinping]
Mr. Nikai will meet with Mr. Wang Yi, top Chinese diplomat too. They are long trusted friends.
[Toshihiro Nikai, Secretary General of LDP (at that time) and Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister (at that time)]
After the meeting with President Xi Jinping and Mr. Wang Yi, Mr. Nikai will make a joint statement together with Mr. Wang Yi in which followings will be confirmed.
- the importance of the People-First principle
- Japan's adherence to One-China principle
- the importance of preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity
- the importance of Non-Interference in a nation's internal affairs
- recognition that peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is pursued and supported while China reserves the option of taking all measures necessary
- recognition that it is already the multipolar world
- promoting equal win-win relations
- Japan would cooperate China's BRI, GDI, GSI and GCI
- facilitating digital economy
5. The establishment of pro-China government in Japan and prevention of Taiwan war
The bright prospect of better economic relations between China and Japan and peace in East Asia will contribute to the better relations between the two countries and strengthen Mr. Nikai's political influence in Japan. Japanese businesses and Japanese people will be impressed and appreciate Mr. Nikai's accomplishment.
So, it is possible that, after Mr. Nikai's visit to China, many LDP members of the Japanese Parliament would join Mr. Nikai's faction. Mr. Nikai's faction could become the largest one within LDP.
[PM Fumio Kishida and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association]
For example, PM Kishida's faction was originally pro-China faction. So, some members of PM Kishida's faction must be frustrated and even feel indignant to PM Kishida's obedient and subservient attitude to the US. Some members of PM Kishida's faction could join Mr. Nikai's faction, damaging PM Kishida's standing.
Also, other factions within LDP would tend to cooperate with Nikai's faction.
Then, pressures within LDP and from the Japanese people that call for PM Kishida to resign will increase very much. PM Kishida's approval rate is as low as around 30% in polls even today.
[The Kishida administration's approval rate is as low as 30.8 % as of July 2023]
Under the pressures, even a small wrong comment of PM Kishida or a single defeat in a by-election could trigger a resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet.
Or, as some ministers of the Kishida cabinet are from Mr. Nikai's faction, Mr. Nikai can let them resign one after another, which will force PM Kishida to resign.
PM Kishida would not be able to resort to a snap election because his defeat and decrease of LDP's seats in the Japanese Parliament is a sure thing.
After the resignation of PM Kishida and his cabinet, Mr. Nikai, working with other factions, would organize a new cabinet as a king-maker. He might pick up Mr. Taro Kono as the next PM since he is relatively popular among the Japanese people for his frank and untraditional style. Or, Mr. Nikai might pick up a female politician such as Seiko Noda or Yuko Obuchi as the next PM. Whoever becomes the next prime minister, he/she and his/her cabinet would be totally under the control of Mr. Nikai because it is Mr. Nikai who would make him/her a prime minister.
The new PM and his/her cabinet will be pro-China. Japan's restriction on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will be lifted immediately.
Above all, the new pro-China PM and his/her cabinet would declare that Japan would not join intervening in Taiwan crisis and that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis because China-Taiwan relations should be solved through dialogue between them.
[F-22 at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
This will significantly enhance the probability of peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because US military forces would not be able to conduct effective operations to intervene Taiwan crisis without using US military bases in Japan.
Japan's declaration that Japan would not allow US military forces to use US military bases in Japan for the purpose of intervening in Taiwan crisis will affect Taiwan voters too and make them convince that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice for Taiwan.
Consequently, in Taiwan's presidential election of January 2024, a pro-China KMT candidate will win over a pro-US candidate of DPP. Victorious KMT will pursue and facilitate a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
As mentioned above, even if the relations between China and the US is good, it will not necessarily prevent a Taiwan war from breaking out because it is Japan that would be a main offensive force to attack China, being used as a US proxy.
Instead, if a pro-China government is established in Japan, it would substantially reduce the possibility of breaking out of a Taiwan war and significantly increase the possibility of a KMT candidate's victory in Taiwan presidential election 2024.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "China: MI5 and FBI heads warn of ‘immense’ threat", July 7th 2022, BBC
(2) 「『最大の懸念は共産中国』米ユダヤ系団体副所長、権力集中に危機感」、２０２３年７月５日、産経新聞
(3) "Putin's visit to China during BRI forum in October shows Russia's support to China: experts", July 26th 2023, The Global Times
(4) 「習主席が｢二階3000人訪中団｣に語ったこと」、２０１５年５月２４日、東洋経済
(5) 「重鎮・二階俊博に田原総一朗がホンネ直撃！「勝手なことをするんじゃない！」 自民党が大揺れ！岸田首相軍拡路線に痛烈警告」、２０２３年２月２日、エコノミスト
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.