1. China’s 12 points on the Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis
In late February, China released "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" consisted of 12 points. [1]
The titles and excerpts of 12 points depicted in the statement are as follows:
1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
What is remarkable is that China is the only great power that put forward principles for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
The US, UK, France and Germany keep supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine so that the war would continue indefinitely.
2. Sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity
The 1st point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld."
At first glance, this point may seem to support Ukraine's position as Ukraine asserts that it would never give up even an inch of its territory and that Russian troops should withdraw from Ukraine's territory.
However, Russia will never accept it. Russia stipulates that Crimea is an integral inherent part of Russia and that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia after the respective referendums.
Ukraine and Russia are sharply contentious on territorial claims. Territorial contention is the most controversial and contentious issue between Ukraine and Russia.
How this conundrum can be solved?
To solve it, we should need to revisit and examine what "sovereignty" exactly means.
It is generally understood that the notion of state sovereignty contains four aspects consisting of territory, population, authority and recognition.
During the Age of Enlightenment of the 17th century, the "Social contract" was suggested as a theory for establishing sovereignty and, by the late 18th century, widely accepted, especially in such countries as the United States, France and UK.
Social contract arguments typically are that individuals have consented to surrender some of their powers and entrust them to the authority in exchange for protecting themselves and maintenance of the social order.
Accordingly, Thomas Hobbes' theory—that the ruler's sovereignty is contracted to him by the people in return for his maintaining their physical safety—led him to conclude that if and when the ruler fails, the people recover their ability to protect themselves by forming a new contract. [2]
[Thomas Hobbes and the original cover of his work Leviathan (1651)]
Now, let's apply this understanding on sovereignty to the situation of Ukraine since 2014 when so-called the Maidan Revolution happened.
After the Maidan Revolution, which was actually a coup backed by the US, pro-Russian protesters were killed and massacred in such places as Odessa. So, people in Crimea who were mostly Russian speaking people held a referendum and decided to belong to Russia, asking for protection. [3]
[The burning trade union building in Odessa where pro-Russian people were staying, May 2, 2014. REUTERS/Yevgeny Volokin]
Also, since a civil war took place in Donbas region, the Kiev government have mobilized SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and its military, suppressing and mass-murdering Russian speaking people in the region. [4]
[Ukraine soldiers during the civil war]
[Damaged building in Donetsk, November 2014]
As mentioned above, sovereignty comes from people. People form a government and entrust their sovereignty to the government in exchange for protecting themselves. Therefore, when the Kiev regime start mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Ukraine territory after 2014, the Kiev government abused its sovereignty and therefore lost its sovereignty over them.
When the Kiev regime started mass-murdering Russian speaking people within Ukraine territory, Ukraine lost its sovereignty over them. Then, those Russian speaking people exercised their own sovereignty by holding referendums and decided to belong to Russia.
Thus, it can be concluded that that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia after the respective referendums. Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
Also, demographically speaking, as people in these regions are Russian speaking people and traditionally have strong ties with Russia, Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia would contribute to lasting peace and stability of the regions.
However, in case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
In this case, Ukraine would keep territories of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson while Russia would govern and control these regions. It depends on the coming development of military situation in Ukraine.
3. Sustainable European security architecture
The 2nd point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture."
The key word is "Sustainable European security architecture".
How "Sustainable European security architecture" can be achieved?
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has kept expanding eastward. It has included former Soviet's satellite states such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Finally, Ukraine which had been a part of the Soviet Union started talking about joining NATO. This NATO's eastward expansion has destabilized the region and caused Ukraine war.
As China's 2nd point indicates the Cold War mentality should be abandoned. Adjacent hostile powers surely lead to a conflict.
Therefore, instead of the Cold War mentality and the military bloc of NATO, a buffer zone of neutral states should be formed in Europe for the purpose of establishing sustainable European security architecture and lasting peace.
Thus, Ukraine should become a neutral state and pledge that it will never join NATO. The neutrality of Ukraine should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
However, even after the neutrality of Ukraine, the US, UK and NATO member states may keep supplying weapons to Ukraine so that Ukraine may once again attack Russia.
So, after the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, China can make an agreement with Russia under which China will supply tens of thousands of drones and other critical military equipment to Russia for the purpose of deterrence. China's supply can dwarf the West's supply to Ukraine.
4. Stopping unilateral sanctions
The 10th point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Stopping unilateral sanctions".
After the breaking out of the Ukraine crisis, the West countries embarked on massive economic, political and diplomatic sanctions against Russia.
However, they didn't work. Russia turned to Asia and increased export of oil and gas to such countries as China and India. China and India and most of Asian, African, Central & South American and Pacific island countries maintain trade and economic relations with Russia. Actually, according to IMF, Russia’s economy is now forecast to grow faster than Germany’s and Britain’s in 2023. [5]
The US led sanctions don't work anymore. Even if the US imposes sanctions to a certain country, China will help the country with providing abundant commodity supply and Russia will help the country with energy supply.
Unilateral sanctions are illegal and should be stopped. It's not the US-led unipolar word anymore. It's already the multipolar world.
5. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction
The 12th point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Promoting post-conflict reconstruction".
After the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, China can extend her Belt and Road Initiative to Ukraine and help the reconstruction of Ukraine.
China can introduce 5G/6G network to Ukraine and promote AI and IT industries and aerospace industries there.
China's support in the reconstruction of Ukraine and China's trade and economic relations with Ukraine will boost Ukraine's economy and Ukraine people's well-being substantially.
6. Denazification of Ukraine
Denazification of Ukraine is not included in China's 12 points. As mentioned above, China asserts Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
When Russia started its special military operation in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address, "I made the decision to hold a special military operation. Its goal is to protect the people that are subjected to abuse, genocide from the Kiev regime for eight years, and to this end we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and put to justice those that committed numerous bloody crimes against peaceful people, including Russian nationals." So, denazification of Ukraine is one of Russian objectives. [6]
The US-backed Neo-Nazi groups within the Kiev regime and Ukraine have been instrumental to transform Ukraine into a fascism state that suppresses and massacres Russian speaking people in Ukraine. Therefore, it's understandable that denazification of Ukraine was one of Russian objectives.
It is up to Russia whether denazification of Ukraine can be achieved or not.
If Russia continues its winter and spring offensive all the way up to seizing Kiev and forcing Zelensky into exile, Russia can set up a pro-Russia government and carry out denazification of Ukraine completely.
It depends upon how much military resources Russia would put into and how much casualties Russia could take, against how much military supply the West would maintain toward Ukraine.
Actually, Russia already mentioned that it was not seeking regime change in Ukraine in April 2022. [7]
7. Implementation of China's 12 points
China can share "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" with BRICS＋ and SCO to promote a peace deal so that Ukraine will be a neutral state and that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will belong to Russia.
In addition, SCO can provide security guarantee to Ukraine in return for NATO and Ukraine's (1) pledge that Ukraine will be a neutral state and never join NATO, and (2) recognition that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are Russian territories.
After making Ukraine a neutral state, Sino-Russian alliance can establish a broad buffer zone in Europe by making Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria neutral states and combining them with Austria and Switzerland, which are already neutral states.
The broad buffer zone of neutral states will contribute to lasting peace and stability of Europe, separating NATO and Russia.
8. Application of China's 12 points to Asia
Sino-Russian alliance can make Ukraine a neutral state first, to establish lasting peace in Europe.
Then, Sino-Russian alliance can make Japan a neutral state by letting Japan imitate Ukraine, to establish lasting peace in Asia.
After making Japan a neutral state, Sino-Russian alliance can establish a buffer zone in Asia by making the Korean Peninsula neutral states. Also, the Korean Peninsula and Japan can form a nuclear weapon free zone.
The buffer zone and the nuclear weapon free zone will contribute to lasting peace and stability of Asia, separating China/Russia and the US.
The buffer zones of neutral states in Europe and Asia would function as the Great Walls of Peace and ensure lasting peace and stability of the world.
Thank you.
References:
(1) China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, February 24th 2023, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
(2) Sovereignty, Wikipedia
(3) "Ukraine clashes: dozens dead after Odessa building fire", May 2nd 2014, The Guardian
(4) "Ukrainian military open fire on Donetsk Republic", November 19th 2014, TASS
(5) "Russia’s economy is now forecast to grow faster than Germany’s and Britain’s in 2023. How is that possible?", February 2nd 2023, Grid News
(6) "Decision taken on denazification, demilitarization of Ukraine — Putin", February 24th 2022, TASS
(7) "Russia not seeking regime change in Ukraine, people should have freedom of choice — Lavrov", April 19th 2022, TASS
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
In late February, China released "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" consisted of 12 points. [1]
The titles and excerpts of 12 points depicted in the statement are as follows:
1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
What is remarkable is that China is the only great power that put forward principles for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
The US, UK, France and Germany keep supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine so that the war would continue indefinitely.
2. Sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity
The 1st point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld."
At first glance, this point may seem to support Ukraine's position as Ukraine asserts that it would never give up even an inch of its territory and that Russian troops should withdraw from Ukraine's territory.
However, Russia will never accept it. Russia stipulates that Crimea is an integral inherent part of Russia and that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia after the respective referendums.
Ukraine and Russia are sharply contentious on territorial claims. Territorial contention is the most controversial and contentious issue between Ukraine and Russia.
How this conundrum can be solved?
To solve it, we should need to revisit and examine what "sovereignty" exactly means.
It is generally understood that the notion of state sovereignty contains four aspects consisting of territory, population, authority and recognition.
During the Age of Enlightenment of the 17th century, the "Social contract" was suggested as a theory for establishing sovereignty and, by the late 18th century, widely accepted, especially in such countries as the United States, France and UK.
Social contract arguments typically are that individuals have consented to surrender some of their powers and entrust them to the authority in exchange for protecting themselves and maintenance of the social order.
Accordingly, Thomas Hobbes' theory—that the ruler's sovereignty is contracted to him by the people in return for his maintaining their physical safety—led him to conclude that if and when the ruler fails, the people recover their ability to protect themselves by forming a new contract. [2]
[Thomas Hobbes and the original cover of his work Leviathan (1651)]
Now, let's apply this understanding on sovereignty to the situation of Ukraine since 2014 when so-called the Maidan Revolution happened.
After the Maidan Revolution, which was actually a coup backed by the US, pro-Russian protesters were killed and massacred in such places as Odessa. So, people in Crimea who were mostly Russian speaking people held a referendum and decided to belong to Russia, asking for protection. [3]
[The burning trade union building in Odessa where pro-Russian people were staying, May 2, 2014. REUTERS/Yevgeny Volokin]
Also, since a civil war took place in Donbas region, the Kiev government have mobilized SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and its military, suppressing and mass-murdering Russian speaking people in the region. [4]
[Ukraine soldiers during the civil war]
[Damaged building in Donetsk, November 2014]
As mentioned above, sovereignty comes from people. People form a government and entrust their sovereignty to the government in exchange for protecting themselves. Therefore, when the Kiev regime start mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Ukraine territory after 2014, the Kiev government abused its sovereignty and therefore lost its sovereignty over them.
When the Kiev regime started mass-murdering Russian speaking people within Ukraine territory, Ukraine lost its sovereignty over them. Then, those Russian speaking people exercised their own sovereignty by holding referendums and decided to belong to Russia.
Thus, it can be concluded that that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia after the respective referendums. Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
Also, demographically speaking, as people in these regions are Russian speaking people and traditionally have strong ties with Russia, Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia would contribute to lasting peace and stability of the regions.
However, in case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
In this case, Ukraine would keep territories of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson while Russia would govern and control these regions. It depends on the coming development of military situation in Ukraine.
3. Sustainable European security architecture
The 2nd point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture."
The key word is "Sustainable European security architecture".
How "Sustainable European security architecture" can be achieved?
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has kept expanding eastward. It has included former Soviet's satellite states such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Finally, Ukraine which had been a part of the Soviet Union started talking about joining NATO. This NATO's eastward expansion has destabilized the region and caused Ukraine war.
As China's 2nd point indicates the Cold War mentality should be abandoned. Adjacent hostile powers surely lead to a conflict.
Therefore, instead of the Cold War mentality and the military bloc of NATO, a buffer zone of neutral states should be formed in Europe for the purpose of establishing sustainable European security architecture and lasting peace.
Thus, Ukraine should become a neutral state and pledge that it will never join NATO. The neutrality of Ukraine should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
However, even after the neutrality of Ukraine, the US, UK and NATO member states may keep supplying weapons to Ukraine so that Ukraine may once again attack Russia.
So, after the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, China can make an agreement with Russia under which China will supply tens of thousands of drones and other critical military equipment to Russia for the purpose of deterrence. China's supply can dwarf the West's supply to Ukraine.
4. Stopping unilateral sanctions
The 10th point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Stopping unilateral sanctions".
After the breaking out of the Ukraine crisis, the West countries embarked on massive economic, political and diplomatic sanctions against Russia.
However, they didn't work. Russia turned to Asia and increased export of oil and gas to such countries as China and India. China and India and most of Asian, African, Central & South American and Pacific island countries maintain trade and economic relations with Russia. Actually, according to IMF, Russia’s economy is now forecast to grow faster than Germany’s and Britain’s in 2023. [5]
The US led sanctions don't work anymore. Even if the US imposes sanctions to a certain country, China will help the country with providing abundant commodity supply and Russia will help the country with energy supply.
Unilateral sanctions are illegal and should be stopped. It's not the US-led unipolar word anymore. It's already the multipolar world.
5. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction
The 12th point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Promoting post-conflict reconstruction".
After the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, China can extend her Belt and Road Initiative to Ukraine and help the reconstruction of Ukraine.
China can introduce 5G/6G network to Ukraine and promote AI and IT industries and aerospace industries there.
China's support in the reconstruction of Ukraine and China's trade and economic relations with Ukraine will boost Ukraine's economy and Ukraine people's well-being substantially.
6. Denazification of Ukraine
Denazification of Ukraine is not included in China's 12 points. As mentioned above, China asserts Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
When Russia started its special military operation in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address, "I made the decision to hold a special military operation. Its goal is to protect the people that are subjected to abuse, genocide from the Kiev regime for eight years, and to this end we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and put to justice those that committed numerous bloody crimes against peaceful people, including Russian nationals." So, denazification of Ukraine is one of Russian objectives. [6]
The US-backed Neo-Nazi groups within the Kiev regime and Ukraine have been instrumental to transform Ukraine into a fascism state that suppresses and massacres Russian speaking people in Ukraine. Therefore, it's understandable that denazification of Ukraine was one of Russian objectives.
It is up to Russia whether denazification of Ukraine can be achieved or not.
If Russia continues its winter and spring offensive all the way up to seizing Kiev and forcing Zelensky into exile, Russia can set up a pro-Russia government and carry out denazification of Ukraine completely.
It depends upon how much military resources Russia would put into and how much casualties Russia could take, against how much military supply the West would maintain toward Ukraine.
Actually, Russia already mentioned that it was not seeking regime change in Ukraine in April 2022. [7]
7. Implementation of China's 12 points
China can share "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" with BRICS＋ and SCO to promote a peace deal so that Ukraine will be a neutral state and that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will belong to Russia.
In addition, SCO can provide security guarantee to Ukraine in return for NATO and Ukraine's (1) pledge that Ukraine will be a neutral state and never join NATO, and (2) recognition that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are Russian territories.
After making Ukraine a neutral state, Sino-Russian alliance can establish a broad buffer zone in Europe by making Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria neutral states and combining them with Austria and Switzerland, which are already neutral states.
The broad buffer zone of neutral states will contribute to lasting peace and stability of Europe, separating NATO and Russia.
8. Application of China's 12 points to Asia
Sino-Russian alliance can make Ukraine a neutral state first, to establish lasting peace in Europe.
Then, Sino-Russian alliance can make Japan a neutral state by letting Japan imitate Ukraine, to establish lasting peace in Asia.
After making Japan a neutral state, Sino-Russian alliance can establish a buffer zone in Asia by making the Korean Peninsula neutral states. Also, the Korean Peninsula and Japan can form a nuclear weapon free zone.
The buffer zone and the nuclear weapon free zone will contribute to lasting peace and stability of Asia, separating China/Russia and the US.
The buffer zones of neutral states in Europe and Asia would function as the Great Walls of Peace and ensure lasting peace and stability of the world.
Thank you.
References:
(1) China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, February 24th 2023, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
(2) Sovereignty, Wikipedia
(3) "Ukraine clashes: dozens dead after Odessa building fire", May 2nd 2014, The Guardian
(4) "Ukrainian military open fire on Donetsk Republic", November 19th 2014, TASS
(5) "Russia’s economy is now forecast to grow faster than Germany’s and Britain’s in 2023. How is that possible?", February 2nd 2023, Grid News
(6) "Decision taken on denazification, demilitarization of Ukraine — Putin", February 24th 2022, TASS
(7) "Russia not seeking regime change in Ukraine, people should have freedom of choice — Lavrov", April 19th 2022, TASS
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.