SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) can provide security guarantee to Ukraine in return for NATO and Ukraine's (1) pledge that Ukraine will be a neutral state and never join NATO, and (2) recognition that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are reunified with Russia.
The war between Ukraine and Russia has turned into a war between NATO and Russia as NATO countries especially the US keeps providing massive weapon supply to Ukraine.
Therefore, it is difficult and almost impossible to make a peace deal between only Ukraine and Russia. NATO needs to be a part of a peace deal.
On the other hand, even if Russia provides security guarantee to Ukraine and pledges that Russia will not make a military operation against Ukraine ever again, NATO and Ukraine would not trust Russian words.
Under such circumstances, it is feasible and practical that SCO whose member states include China, India, Pakistan and Central Asian countries joins the peace deal and provides security guarantee to Ukraine.
Russia can not ignore the positions and voices of China and India because China and India are strategic partners of Russia and Russia is heavily dependent upon trade with them. China imports Russian oil and gas. India imports Russian weapons and oil and gas.
Ukraine should not join NATO. Instead of being a proxy for the US, Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should recognize its geopolitical location and role.
Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are Russian speaking regions. Ukraine can not govern these regions peacefully. Ukraine should admit that Russia should govern these regions.
[The Russian Empire and the Crimean Khanate in the late 18th century]
Historically speaking, these regions were under the control of Russia from the 18th century until the 20th century after the Russian Empire annexed the Crimean Khanate (a Crimean Tatar state) in 1783.
Thus, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) can provide security guarantee to Ukraine in return for NATO and Ukraine's (1) pledge that Ukraine will be a neutral state and never join NATO, and (2) recognition that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are reunified with Russia.
The 2nd condition may be replaced with "(2) acceptance that Ukraine leases the territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea to Russia for 99 years", which would be more compatible to China's position that territorial integrity of nations should be protected.
Take it or leave it. This is the last chance for NATO and the Zelensky administration to reach a peace deal with Russia.
If NATO and Ukraine don't accept the above mentioned conditions, Russia will launch a massive winter offensive with added mobilized troops to advance toward Kiev, which will result in conquest of Kiev, Zelensky's exile and setting up a Russian puppet government in Kiev. Russia will conclude a peace deal with its set up puppet government.
The US weapon supply to Ukraine will shrink because Trumpian Republicans are expected to win the House in the midterm elections and block major flow of weapon supply to Ukraine.
US arsenal inventory is out of stock. The US doesn't have Javelin or HIMARS to send to Ukraine anymore. The latest US military support for Ukraine is refurbishing its Soviet-era tanks. NATO doesn't have capacity to halt Russian winter offensive.
NATO's excessive eastward expansion was a cause of Ukraine war. NATO should admit its mistake and accept a realistic balance of power between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should recognize its geopolitical location and role.
By giving a security guarantee to Ukraine and contributing to a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, SCO will impress the world about its great peace-making capability. SCO is expected to keep making peace in various regions of the world. SCO will be a great peace-maker for the mankind.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
The war between Ukraine and Russia has turned into a war between NATO and Russia as NATO countries especially the US keeps providing massive weapon supply to Ukraine.
Therefore, it is difficult and almost impossible to make a peace deal between only Ukraine and Russia. NATO needs to be a part of a peace deal.
On the other hand, even if Russia provides security guarantee to Ukraine and pledges that Russia will not make a military operation against Ukraine ever again, NATO and Ukraine would not trust Russian words.
Under such circumstances, it is feasible and practical that SCO whose member states include China, India, Pakistan and Central Asian countries joins the peace deal and provides security guarantee to Ukraine.
Russia can not ignore the positions and voices of China and India because China and India are strategic partners of Russia and Russia is heavily dependent upon trade with them. China imports Russian oil and gas. India imports Russian weapons and oil and gas.
Ukraine should not join NATO. Instead of being a proxy for the US, Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should recognize its geopolitical location and role.
Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are Russian speaking regions. Ukraine can not govern these regions peacefully. Ukraine should admit that Russia should govern these regions.
[The Russian Empire and the Crimean Khanate in the late 18th century]
Historically speaking, these regions were under the control of Russia from the 18th century until the 20th century after the Russian Empire annexed the Crimean Khanate (a Crimean Tatar state) in 1783.
Thus, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) can provide security guarantee to Ukraine in return for NATO and Ukraine's (1) pledge that Ukraine will be a neutral state and never join NATO, and (2) recognition that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are reunified with Russia.
The 2nd condition may be replaced with "(2) acceptance that Ukraine leases the territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea to Russia for 99 years", which would be more compatible to China's position that territorial integrity of nations should be protected.
Take it or leave it. This is the last chance for NATO and the Zelensky administration to reach a peace deal with Russia.
If NATO and Ukraine don't accept the above mentioned conditions, Russia will launch a massive winter offensive with added mobilized troops to advance toward Kiev, which will result in conquest of Kiev, Zelensky's exile and setting up a Russian puppet government in Kiev. Russia will conclude a peace deal with its set up puppet government.
The US weapon supply to Ukraine will shrink because Trumpian Republicans are expected to win the House in the midterm elections and block major flow of weapon supply to Ukraine.
US arsenal inventory is out of stock. The US doesn't have Javelin or HIMARS to send to Ukraine anymore. The latest US military support for Ukraine is refurbishing its Soviet-era tanks. NATO doesn't have capacity to halt Russian winter offensive.
NATO's excessive eastward expansion was a cause of Ukraine war. NATO should admit its mistake and accept a realistic balance of power between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Ukraine should recognize its geopolitical location and role.
By giving a security guarantee to Ukraine and contributing to a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, SCO will impress the world about its great peace-making capability. SCO is expected to keep making peace in various regions of the world. SCO will be a great peace-maker for the mankind.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.