1. Japan's military buildup and Russia's pledge on retaliatory measures
Violating the more than half a century long custom of the pacifist constitution, Japan's Kishida administration has determined that Japan will deploy "offensive weapons" to attack neighboring countries and that Japan will begin with procuring from the US Tomahawk cruise missiles as such offensive weapons. Also, the Kishida administration has determined that Japan will develop its own intermediate-range missiles, double its defense budget and raise tax to finance it. [1]
Although the Japanese government didn't mention explicitly, it is obvious that Japan regard China, Russia and North Korea as potential enemies. When the Kishida administration formally made the above decision, the US President, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor most highly praised it. [2]
The US is planning to use Japan as a US proxy that attacks China and Russia just like the US is using Ukraine as a US proxy that attacks Russia.
Russia has quickly responded to Japan's decision on a military buildup. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko has said that Russia would thwart threats from a Japanese military buildup.
According to an RT article of January 3rd, Rudenko stated, "We consider Tokyo’s activities a serious challenge to the security of our country and the Asia-Pacific as a whole." [3]
"If such practices continue, we will be forced to implement appropriate retaliatory measures in order to block the military threats Russia faces," he added, condemning the "expedited militarization" of Japan and the "unprecedented" increase in its military budget.
For the time-being, Russia's "appropriate retaliatory measures" would be economic sanctions rather than a military strike. For example, it is likely that Russia would stop supplying natural gas from its Sakhalin projects to Japan. It would cause energy prices in Japan to skyrocket, suffering the Japanese people hard.
[Russia's Sakhalin projects]
Or, Russia might confiscate and nationalize the entire Sakhalin projects. In that case, the Japanese government and Japanese companies would lose their stakes in Sakhalin projects worth billions of US Dollars.
And, if Japan would keep beefing up its military despite Russia's economic sanctions and start procuring and deploying Tomahawk cruise missiles that can hit Russia, then, Russia's "appropriate retaliatory measures" would be enhanced to military measures powerful enough to compel Japan to give up its military buildup.
2. A historical lesson of Battles of Khalkhin Gol
In order to consider the ramification and outcome of Japan's military buildup and Russia's retaliatory measures, it is appropriate to refer to some precedents of the past.
Looking back the history, there was a decisive incident in 1939 between Russia (at that time, the Soviet Union) and Japan called "Battles of Khalkhin Gol". In Japan, the battles are known as the "Nomonhan Incident" (「ノモンハン事件」).
In 1939, the Soviets' Red Army and Japan's Imperial Army clashed in the border area between Mongolia and Manchuria along the river Khalkhin Gol.
The Red Army was well-mechanized and equipped with as many as 500 well-armed tanks such as BT-5 and BT-7 tanks. On the other hand, Japan's Imperial Army had only 70 small tanks.
[The Red Army's BT-7 tanks in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol. Equipped with a 45 mm gun, they were well-armed for their time, and had the best mobility of all contemporary tanks.]
[The Japanese Imperial Army's Type 95 Ha-Go light tank. Equipped with a 37 mm gun, it was inferior to the Red Army's BT-5 and BT-7 tanks in every aspect.]
Commanded by Georgy Zhukov, the Red Army's mechanized forces overwhelmed Japan's infantry-centric Imperial Army, encircling and crushing Japan's division. The Japanese government and Japan's Imperial Army painfully understood their inferior power against the Soviets' Red Army.
[Soviet infantrymen charging with a BT-7 tank]
[Japanese infantrymen facing the Red Army]
[Japanese soldiers captured by the Red Army]
Until the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, there had been an argument between the northward advance faction (「北進派」) and southward advance faction (「南進派」) within the Japanese government and Japan's Imperial Army.
The northward advance faction had asserted that Japan should attack the Soviet Union in the Far East and conquer vast areas of Siberia. Meanwhile, the southward advance faction had insisted that Japan should attack the resource-abundant Southeast Asian colonies of the British, Dutch, French and Americans.
But after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, facing the Soviets' superior industrial and military power, the northward advance faction disappeared. Accordingly, in 1941, Japan attacked British Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, French Indochina and the Philippines.
[Japan's northward advance plan which was abandoned after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol]
[Japan's southward advance plan which was implemented in World War 2]
In and after 1941, Germany which was fighting desperately against the Soviets in Europe repeatedly demanded that Japan should attack the Soviets so that a large part of the Red Army would be diverted to Asia.
However, so frightened by the strength of the Red Army, Japan's Imperial Army did not attack the Soviets at all and remained defensive until the end of war.
Stalin could concentrate the Red Army including elite Siberian troops upon the fighting against Germany and eventually defeated Germany.
The Battles of Khalkhin Gol was decisive to change the course of Japan and the world history. [4]
3. Russia's powerful military strike against Japan as appropriate retaliatory measures
Now, let's return to a contemporary situation. Being well aware that Japan backs off when being attacked hard, Russia's coming "appropriate retaliatory measures" with military forces would be very much powerful and decisive.
Just like in 1939, Russia has far superior weapons against Japan in the Far East. Russia has hypersonic missiles against which even the US has no defense. Russia has thousands of ballistic missiles including the latest Sarmat ballistic missiles. Russia has thousands of cruise missiles that can be launched from aircraft, warships and submarines.
Russia has the Pacific Fleet including a superior submarine fleet. Russia has excellent fighter and bomber squadrons. Russia has massive tank battalions. Russia has the most advanced air-defense systems including S-400s and S-500s.
In last December, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his regret that he should have started the special military operation against Ukraine earlier. He had believed in the sincerity of the West's politicians such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and had accepted so-called the Minsk Agreement. But, Merkel herself later revealed that the Minsk Agreement had been made only for the purpose of buying time for arming Ukraine. So, it was a cheating. [5]
Having experienced what happened in Ukraine, Russia must have learned a lesson that Japan should never be given a time to arm itself and that Russia should take the initiative in attacking Japan.
Russian can start with provoking and drawing Japan into a border skirmish around Kuril Islands. It can quickly escalate to a shooting clash between Russian warships and warships of Japan's Self Defense Forces (JSDF), during which a Russian corvette can be sunk for an unknown cause and dozens of Russian personnel may perish. Then, Russia can launch a powerful retaliatory attack against Japan.
For example, Russia can launch hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles to wipe out JSDF's Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido, Japan. All F-15s stationed there will be destroyed as well as radars, fuel tanks, facilities and thousands of personnel.
[Russia's Iskander missile]
[JSDF's Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido, Japan]
Also, Russia can attack with Tsircon hypersonic missiles launched from Russian warships and submarines to destroy and sink one JSDF's aircraft carrier and two Aegis destroyers. Japan's warships will go down to the bottom of ocean with hundreds of personnel.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic missile]
[Tsirkon hypersonic missiles can be launched from a frigate]
[Tsirkon hypersonic missiles can be launched from a submarine]
[JSDF's Izumo-class aircraft carrier]
[JSDF's Aegis destroyer]
Finally, Russia can attack with anti-submarine missiles launched from Russian warships and submarines to sink one JSDF's submarine.
[Russian anti-submarine missiles]
Realizing there is no defense against Russian missile attacks, some troops of JSDF would refuse to be deployed to Hokkaido. Some disobedient sailors of JSDF may revolt on a warship, putting commanding officers into custody.
The Japanese people will be panic-stricken. They will take refuge into subway stations, which will become overcrowded. Foods and drinks will disappear from stores. The Japanese people's anger and disapproval toward their own government will become intensified.
Facing devastating destruction and casualties and the people's disapproval, Japan's cabinet will fall. And, a new cabinet will announce that Japan will give up its military buildup in order not to invite so-called security dilemma.
The Japanese government will cancel both the procurement of Tomahawk cruise missiles and the development of intermediate-range missiles. It will decide to reduce its defense budget to the original level, announcing that Japan will strictly adhere to its pacifist constitution.
Witnessing that being a member of Japan's Self Defense Forces (JSDF) means instant death, a large number of personnel of JSDF will quit. Young Japanese people will avoid being recruited by JSDF.
The US's plan to use Japan as a US proxy that attacks China and Russia will fail.
The US would try to incite the Japanese people's anger against Russia, mobilizing Japanese media and using a slogan of "Remember Chitose Air Force Base!"
However, the Japanese people will not unite to retaliate against Russia. They will just back off. According to recent polls, it was only 13% of Japanese people that answered they would take up arms and fight in the event of a war, which is the least number in the world. [6]
4. Collateral effects: The US carrier strike groups will prove to be a sitting duck
If Russia sinks JSDF's aircraft carrier and Aegis destroyers by Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, it will prove that Russia's hypersonic missiles can also penetrate US carrier strike groups' air-defense systems and sink US aircraft carriers.
The US carrier strike groups will prove to be a mere sitting duck.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic missile]
When Russia starts mass-production of Tsirkon hypersonic missiles and export them to China, the US Navy will never be able to intervene China's forceful reunification with Taiwan.
Actually, China already has its own hypersonic anti-ship missiles called DF-100. Having Tsirkon hypersonic missiles additionally will ensure China's capability of A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area-Denial) even more.
The US’s so-called Freedom of Navigation Operation having US warships sail through the Taiwan strait is meaningless.
[China's hypersonic anti-ship missile DF-100]
Losing support of the US Navy, the Taiwan government will give up secession from China and come to a conclusion that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
The US's military influence will recede worldwide. The fall and decline of the US will be accelerated.
Ironically, the US's evil plan to use Japan as a proxy that attacks China and Russia will only result in Japan's being used as a testing ground to reveal the so-far-hidden inferiority of US military power.
Just like in 1939, Russia's decisive military strike against Japan can change the course of Japan and the world history, which will contribute to avoiding much larger scale of military conflicts and much larger number of casualties in both military and civil personnel in Asia.
It will also contribute to vindicate that the age of US unipolar world is definitely over and the age of multipolar world has already begun.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Japan seeks to buy up to 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from U.S.", November 30th, 2022, the Japan News
(2) "US welcomes Japan's news security strategy amid power competition with China", December 17th, 2022, Anadolu Agency
(3) "Japan's militarization a 'security threat' – Russia", January 3rd, 2023, RT
(4) Khalkhin Gol: The Soviet Victory Over Japan That Changed the Course of World War II in Asia, October 30th, 2020, The National Interest
(5) "Putin responds to Merkel bombshell", December 9th, 2022, RT
(6) "Asked, "Would you fight in the event of a war?", only 13% of Japanese answered affirmatively", June 8th 2022, President Online
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Violating the more than half a century long custom of the pacifist constitution, Japan's Kishida administration has determined that Japan will deploy "offensive weapons" to attack neighboring countries and that Japan will begin with procuring from the US Tomahawk cruise missiles as such offensive weapons. Also, the Kishida administration has determined that Japan will develop its own intermediate-range missiles, double its defense budget and raise tax to finance it. [1]
Although the Japanese government didn't mention explicitly, it is obvious that Japan regard China, Russia and North Korea as potential enemies. When the Kishida administration formally made the above decision, the US President, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor most highly praised it. [2]
The US is planning to use Japan as a US proxy that attacks China and Russia just like the US is using Ukraine as a US proxy that attacks Russia.
Russia has quickly responded to Japan's decision on a military buildup. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko has said that Russia would thwart threats from a Japanese military buildup.
According to an RT article of January 3rd, Rudenko stated, "We consider Tokyo’s activities a serious challenge to the security of our country and the Asia-Pacific as a whole." [3]
"If such practices continue, we will be forced to implement appropriate retaliatory measures in order to block the military threats Russia faces," he added, condemning the "expedited militarization" of Japan and the "unprecedented" increase in its military budget.
For the time-being, Russia's "appropriate retaliatory measures" would be economic sanctions rather than a military strike. For example, it is likely that Russia would stop supplying natural gas from its Sakhalin projects to Japan. It would cause energy prices in Japan to skyrocket, suffering the Japanese people hard.
[Russia's Sakhalin projects]
Or, Russia might confiscate and nationalize the entire Sakhalin projects. In that case, the Japanese government and Japanese companies would lose their stakes in Sakhalin projects worth billions of US Dollars.
And, if Japan would keep beefing up its military despite Russia's economic sanctions and start procuring and deploying Tomahawk cruise missiles that can hit Russia, then, Russia's "appropriate retaliatory measures" would be enhanced to military measures powerful enough to compel Japan to give up its military buildup.
2. A historical lesson of Battles of Khalkhin Gol
In order to consider the ramification and outcome of Japan's military buildup and Russia's retaliatory measures, it is appropriate to refer to some precedents of the past.
Looking back the history, there was a decisive incident in 1939 between Russia (at that time, the Soviet Union) and Japan called "Battles of Khalkhin Gol". In Japan, the battles are known as the "Nomonhan Incident" (「ノモンハン事件」).
In 1939, the Soviets' Red Army and Japan's Imperial Army clashed in the border area between Mongolia and Manchuria along the river Khalkhin Gol.
The Red Army was well-mechanized and equipped with as many as 500 well-armed tanks such as BT-5 and BT-7 tanks. On the other hand, Japan's Imperial Army had only 70 small tanks.
[The Red Army's BT-7 tanks in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol. Equipped with a 45 mm gun, they were well-armed for their time, and had the best mobility of all contemporary tanks.]
[The Japanese Imperial Army's Type 95 Ha-Go light tank. Equipped with a 37 mm gun, it was inferior to the Red Army's BT-5 and BT-7 tanks in every aspect.]
Commanded by Georgy Zhukov, the Red Army's mechanized forces overwhelmed Japan's infantry-centric Imperial Army, encircling and crushing Japan's division. The Japanese government and Japan's Imperial Army painfully understood their inferior power against the Soviets' Red Army.
[Soviet infantrymen charging with a BT-7 tank]
[Japanese infantrymen facing the Red Army]
[Japanese soldiers captured by the Red Army]
Until the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, there had been an argument between the northward advance faction (「北進派」) and southward advance faction (「南進派」) within the Japanese government and Japan's Imperial Army.
The northward advance faction had asserted that Japan should attack the Soviet Union in the Far East and conquer vast areas of Siberia. Meanwhile, the southward advance faction had insisted that Japan should attack the resource-abundant Southeast Asian colonies of the British, Dutch, French and Americans.
But after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, facing the Soviets' superior industrial and military power, the northward advance faction disappeared. Accordingly, in 1941, Japan attacked British Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, French Indochina and the Philippines.
[Japan's northward advance plan which was abandoned after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol]
[Japan's southward advance plan which was implemented in World War 2]
In and after 1941, Germany which was fighting desperately against the Soviets in Europe repeatedly demanded that Japan should attack the Soviets so that a large part of the Red Army would be diverted to Asia.
However, so frightened by the strength of the Red Army, Japan's Imperial Army did not attack the Soviets at all and remained defensive until the end of war.
Stalin could concentrate the Red Army including elite Siberian troops upon the fighting against Germany and eventually defeated Germany.
The Battles of Khalkhin Gol was decisive to change the course of Japan and the world history. [4]
3. Russia's powerful military strike against Japan as appropriate retaliatory measures
Now, let's return to a contemporary situation. Being well aware that Japan backs off when being attacked hard, Russia's coming "appropriate retaliatory measures" with military forces would be very much powerful and decisive.
Just like in 1939, Russia has far superior weapons against Japan in the Far East. Russia has hypersonic missiles against which even the US has no defense. Russia has thousands of ballistic missiles including the latest Sarmat ballistic missiles. Russia has thousands of cruise missiles that can be launched from aircraft, warships and submarines.
Russia has the Pacific Fleet including a superior submarine fleet. Russia has excellent fighter and bomber squadrons. Russia has massive tank battalions. Russia has the most advanced air-defense systems including S-400s and S-500s.
In last December, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his regret that he should have started the special military operation against Ukraine earlier. He had believed in the sincerity of the West's politicians such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and had accepted so-called the Minsk Agreement. But, Merkel herself later revealed that the Minsk Agreement had been made only for the purpose of buying time for arming Ukraine. So, it was a cheating. [5]
Having experienced what happened in Ukraine, Russia must have learned a lesson that Japan should never be given a time to arm itself and that Russia should take the initiative in attacking Japan.
Russian can start with provoking and drawing Japan into a border skirmish around Kuril Islands. It can quickly escalate to a shooting clash between Russian warships and warships of Japan's Self Defense Forces (JSDF), during which a Russian corvette can be sunk for an unknown cause and dozens of Russian personnel may perish. Then, Russia can launch a powerful retaliatory attack against Japan.
For example, Russia can launch hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles to wipe out JSDF's Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido, Japan. All F-15s stationed there will be destroyed as well as radars, fuel tanks, facilities and thousands of personnel.
[Russia's Iskander missile]
[JSDF's Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido, Japan]
Also, Russia can attack with Tsircon hypersonic missiles launched from Russian warships and submarines to destroy and sink one JSDF's aircraft carrier and two Aegis destroyers. Japan's warships will go down to the bottom of ocean with hundreds of personnel.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic missile]
[Tsirkon hypersonic missiles can be launched from a frigate]
[Tsirkon hypersonic missiles can be launched from a submarine]
[JSDF's Izumo-class aircraft carrier]
[JSDF's Aegis destroyer]
Finally, Russia can attack with anti-submarine missiles launched from Russian warships and submarines to sink one JSDF's submarine.
[Russian anti-submarine missiles]
Realizing there is no defense against Russian missile attacks, some troops of JSDF would refuse to be deployed to Hokkaido. Some disobedient sailors of JSDF may revolt on a warship, putting commanding officers into custody.
The Japanese people will be panic-stricken. They will take refuge into subway stations, which will become overcrowded. Foods and drinks will disappear from stores. The Japanese people's anger and disapproval toward their own government will become intensified.
Facing devastating destruction and casualties and the people's disapproval, Japan's cabinet will fall. And, a new cabinet will announce that Japan will give up its military buildup in order not to invite so-called security dilemma.
The Japanese government will cancel both the procurement of Tomahawk cruise missiles and the development of intermediate-range missiles. It will decide to reduce its defense budget to the original level, announcing that Japan will strictly adhere to its pacifist constitution.
Witnessing that being a member of Japan's Self Defense Forces (JSDF) means instant death, a large number of personnel of JSDF will quit. Young Japanese people will avoid being recruited by JSDF.
The US's plan to use Japan as a US proxy that attacks China and Russia will fail.
The US would try to incite the Japanese people's anger against Russia, mobilizing Japanese media and using a slogan of "Remember Chitose Air Force Base!"
However, the Japanese people will not unite to retaliate against Russia. They will just back off. According to recent polls, it was only 13% of Japanese people that answered they would take up arms and fight in the event of a war, which is the least number in the world. [6]
4. Collateral effects: The US carrier strike groups will prove to be a sitting duck
If Russia sinks JSDF's aircraft carrier and Aegis destroyers by Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, it will prove that Russia's hypersonic missiles can also penetrate US carrier strike groups' air-defense systems and sink US aircraft carriers.
The US carrier strike groups will prove to be a mere sitting duck.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic missile]
When Russia starts mass-production of Tsirkon hypersonic missiles and export them to China, the US Navy will never be able to intervene China's forceful reunification with Taiwan.
Actually, China already has its own hypersonic anti-ship missiles called DF-100. Having Tsirkon hypersonic missiles additionally will ensure China's capability of A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area-Denial) even more.
The US’s so-called Freedom of Navigation Operation having US warships sail through the Taiwan strait is meaningless.
[China's hypersonic anti-ship missile DF-100]
Losing support of the US Navy, the Taiwan government will give up secession from China and come to a conclusion that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
The US's military influence will recede worldwide. The fall and decline of the US will be accelerated.
Ironically, the US's evil plan to use Japan as a proxy that attacks China and Russia will only result in Japan's being used as a testing ground to reveal the so-far-hidden inferiority of US military power.
Just like in 1939, Russia's decisive military strike against Japan can change the course of Japan and the world history, which will contribute to avoiding much larger scale of military conflicts and much larger number of casualties in both military and civil personnel in Asia.
It will also contribute to vindicate that the age of US unipolar world is definitely over and the age of multipolar world has already begun.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Japan seeks to buy up to 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from U.S.", November 30th, 2022, the Japan News
(2) "US welcomes Japan's news security strategy amid power competition with China", December 17th, 2022, Anadolu Agency
(3) "Japan's militarization a 'security threat' – Russia", January 3rd, 2023, RT
(4) Khalkhin Gol: The Soviet Victory Over Japan That Changed the Course of World War II in Asia, October 30th, 2020, The National Interest
(5) "Putin responds to Merkel bombshell", December 9th, 2022, RT
(6) "Asked, "Would you fight in the event of a war?", only 13% of Japanese answered affirmatively", June 8th 2022, President Online
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.